11/11 Playoff Predictions

[ToTheLeft]

The Liberty bashing makes about as much sense as the UNH hatred on most FCS sites, despite the fact that they'll have the best resume in FCS if they beat W&M this week.

None of Northern Iowa, App. State or Elon have beaten a team as good as Liberty has, by the same computer numbers that you seem to note as reasons why Liberty is a lock not to make the playoffs. They have pretty much the same schedule breakdown of App. State who has a loss WORSE than Liberty's this year, AT HOME, and still, App. State is a lock, win or lose over Elon, and a LOCK For a seed, apparently, if they win out.

Liberty has no playoff history but there's nothing about their resume that shouldn't have them sitting SQUARELY on the bubble come selection time. If EWU and UD don't get to 8-3, I think Liberty is next in line, ahead of FAMU for sure.

App State has losses to FBS ECU, and a loss at home to McNeese. 1. Armanti wasn't anywhere near recovered yet, and I think we've seen that with the run they've gone on.

2. Northern Iowa has losses to FBS Iowa, Top 3 SIU and Top 10 SDSU. They've pounded everyone else they've played. They might not have a "big" win, but nothing has proven that they don't belong.

With Liberty, I don't think it's as much the arguement that they DON'T belong, as much of a lack of arguement that they DO. 3. I'm not going off of polls, numbers, or stats. Just real life observation. Lafayette is not that good of a team, in my opinion. If they win out, that might change my mind a little bit, but look at their schedule.

2010 will change a lot of things, and luckily this is one of them. The Big South and NEC will get their chance to finally PROVE they belong.

1. To be fair, JMU had Dudzik for a whole game for the last time against us. Has to go both ways.

2. Liberty has pounded everyone we've played other than JMU, our lone FCS loss, and WVU, a solid FBS loss. The problem is people ASSUMED UNI belonged in, and no one assumed Liberty did. If LU was an assumed playoff team prior to the year, we'd be in right now.

3. The polls and resumes are there to remove bias. Ignoring them is ignoring a key component of the playoff process.

[WrenFGun]

See, I disagree.

Liberty has a win that proves they belong in a 16-team field (they beat a team in the field of 16 if they win out).

By contrast, UNI has lost to the only three good teams they've played. Appalachian State has lost to the only two good teams they've played. The only thing they've proven is that they can beat teams they should and lose to teams that are around their level.

UNI has no opportunity to have a win as good as Lafayette and yet are a lock if they get to 8-3 because they have no bad losses? Weird.

[mountain_man]

Don't worry about App ladies, we'll get our "big\good" win this weekend.

[ToTheLeft]

Don't worry about App ladies, we'll get our "big\good" win this weekend.

And if you do then everything will be kosher. However, then you have to wonder about Elon...

[mountain_man]

Wonder what about Elon?

[ToTheLeft]

Who the heck they've beaten. They'll make it on sheer amount of wins coming out of the SoCon, but still. I guess I just don't understand this big conference mentality.

[WrenFGun]

Wonder what about Elon?

...if they're a serious playoff contender, perhaps? A Loss to App. State means that Elon won't have a top FOURTY GPI win. There'd be nothing about their resume that suggested they were a better choice than Liberty at this juncture, TBH.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a more overrated team in the history of college football. Despite the fact that they haven't beaten or played anyone, they're ranked above UNH (win over 'Nova), SDSU (UNI) and W&M (Delaware, Virginia) pretty consistently.

[CoastalFan2005]

Who the heck they've beaten. They'll make it on sheer amount of wins coming out of the SoCon, but still. I guess I just don't understand this big conference mentality.

Me personally, after looking at Elon's results to date I would only categorize two of their wins as not being blowout wins. Not only have they beaten every team in the SoCon, they've blown out all but 2 of them (Furman, GSU). That's not an easy task.

PS - Elon's only loss this year is to FBS Wake Forest.

You guys are finding out now what we did in 2004 when we went 10-1. Only loss being to D-II Newberry, most of our fans thought we should make it in. We didn't. Tough shit, we went back to work and finally made the playoffs in '06.

A playoff berth for you guys would be good for the conference, but I really do not see it happening. Being selected for the playoffs is as much about who you know as it is who you've beaten.

[ToTheLeft]

Who the heck they've beaten. They'll make it on sheer amount of wins coming out of the SoCon, but still. I guess I just don't understand this big conference mentality.

Me personally, after looking at Elon's results to date I would only categorize two of their wins as not being blowout wins. Not only have they beaten every team in the SoCon, they've blown out all but 2 of them (Furman, GSU). That's not an easy task.

PS - Elon's only loss this year is to FBS Wake Forest.

You guys are finding out now what we did in 2004 when we went 10-1. Only loss being to D-II Newberry, most of our fans thought we should make it in. We didn't. Tough shit, we went back to work and finally made the playoffs in '06.

A playoff berth for you guys would be good for the conference, but I really do not see it happening. Being selected for the playoffs is as much about who you know as it is who you've beaten.

Which is why I'm not sold on the "FCS is better than BCS"...

[native]

App State has losses to FBS ECU, and a loss at home to McNeese. 1. Armanti wasn't anywhere near recovered yet, and I think we've seen that with the run they've gone on.

2. Northern Iowa has losses to FBS Iowa, Top 3 SIU and Top 10 SDSU. They've pounded everyone else they've played. They might not have a "big" win, but nothing has proven that they don't belong.

With Liberty, I don't think it's as much the arguement that they DON'T belong, as much of a lack of arguement that they DO. 3. I'm not going off of polls, numbers, or stats. Just real life observation. Lafayette is not that good of a team, in my opinion. If they win out, that might change my mind a little bit, but look at their schedule.

2010 will change a lot of things, and luckily this is one of them. The Big South and NEC will get their chance to finally PROVE they belong.

1. To be fair, JMU had Dudzik for a whole game for the last time against us. Has to go both ways.

2. Liberty has pounded everyone we've played other than JMU, our lone FCS loss, and WVU, a solid FBS loss. The problem is people ASSUMED UNI belonged in, and no one assumed Liberty did. If LU was an assumed playoff team prior to the year, we'd be in right now.

3. The polls and resumes are there to remove bias. Ignoring them is ignoring a key component of the playoff process.

The polls do not remove bias - they inject bias!

[danefan]

Me personally, after looking at Elon's results to date I would only categorize two of their wins as not being blowout wins. Not only have they beaten every team in the SoCon, they've blown out all but 2 of them (Furman, GSU). That's not an easy task.

PS - Elon's only loss this year is to FBS Wake Forest.

You guys are finding out now what we did in 2004 when we went 10-1. Only loss being to D-II Newberry, most of our fans thought we should make it in. We didn't. Tough shit, we went back to work and finally made the playoffs in '06.

A playoff berth for you guys would be good for the conference, but I really do not see it happening. Being selected for the playoffs is as much about who you know as it is who you've beaten.

Which is why I'm not sold on the "FCS is better than BCS"...

Its 1000000 times better because its can adapt. Its not perfect because it hasn't adapted quickly, but at the very least it has shown it can adapt. The 2010 expansion is the prime example of that.

[mountain_man]

Who the heck they've beaten. They'll make it on sheer amount of wins coming out of the SoCon, but still. I guess I just don't understand this big conference mentality.

No problem, let me try one more time to set you right.

SoCon>Big South...

Like I said before, I hope y'all get in, and I pray you have to make the trip to Boone. That should erase any doubt you have about the Mountaineers.

Good luck!

[mountain_man]

Dbl post

[Screamin_Eagle174]

LIFE ON THE BIG SKY BUBBLE

If those teams all take care of business and wrap up at-large bids, that will leave a solid group of nine teams fighting for the final two bids. And that doesn't include several schools with four losses.

The Big Sky Conference has two teams with legitimate playoff hopes, Montana State and Eastern Washington.

Montana State (6-3) is at home for its final two games against Sacramento State and Montana and could still win the BSC auto bid, if Montana loses to Northern Colorado and then falls to the Bobcats.

MSU was 30th in points in The Sports Network poll this week after being ranked earlier in the season. The Bobcatsd are 23rd in the GPI.

The Bobcats have a loss to Michigan State and one non-Division I-win against Dixie State, as well as an overtime victory over South Dakota. But Montana State beat then-No. 11-ranked Weber State and still have a shot to make an impression against Montana.

The Brawl of the Wild rivalry game with the Grizzlies could serve as a play-in game for the Bobcats to make the tournament field.

Eastern Washington (6-3) wasn't even sure it would be eligible for the playoffs until an NCAA appeals committee reversed the infractions committee's postseason ban on the Eagles a few weeks ago.

EWU is ranked 18th nationally and is 13th in the GPI, the highest computer ranking of any of the bubble teams. The Eagles lost to Cal and beat non-D-I Western Oregon and their best FCS victory was a 35-24 decision against Montana State at home.

Eastern Washington's other two losses were to quality ranked opponents, Montana (41-34) and Weber State (31-13). The Eagles must win on the road at Southern Utah and Northern Arizona to remain in the playoff debate.

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