Playoff Projections- Nov. 15

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

Here is how the playoffs are looking. If MSU beats Montana then there will be a major shakeup. Anyone disagree at this point?

Auto Bids
Big Sky: Montana 10-0
CAA: Villanova 9-1
MEAC: SC State 9-1
MVFC: Southern Illinois 9-1
OVC: Eastern Illinois 8-2
Patriot League: Holy Cross 9-1
SoCon: Appalachian State 8-2
SLC: Stephen F. Austin 8-2

At-Large
Big Sky Eastern Washington 7-3 (must win out)
CAA Richmond 9-1
CAA New Hampshire 8-2
CAA William & Mary 9-1
MVFC Northern Iowa 7-3 (must win out)
MVFC South Dakota State 7-3 (must win out)
SoCon: Elon 8-2
Southland McNeese State 8-2

Just Missed
Big South Liberty 7-2

[danefan]

EWU has to beat NAU next week I think.

If not, I can see Liberty getting in over a 4-loss EWU.

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

EWU has to beat NAU next week I think.

If not, I can see Liberty getting in over a 4-loss EWU.

Definitely true. I think 13 of the 16 team are already decided with just 4-5 teams competing for those last few spots. If UNI, EWU, and SDSU win this weekend then I think the field of 16 will be easy to pick.

[danefan]

EWU has to beat NAU next week I think.

If not, I can see Liberty getting in over a 4-loss EWU.

Definitely true. I think 13 of the 16 team are already decided with just 4-5 teams competing for those last few spots. If UNI, EWU, and SDSU win this weekend then I think the field of 16 will be easy to pick.

Agreed. I also think it will be one of the strongest fields in recent history.
All but 2 or 3 teams have a realistic chance at making the National Championship game.

[danefan]

Taking a crack at SCFBF's AQ's and At-larges above, here's the brackets I can come up with:

Eastern Illinois @ (1) Southern Illinois
Stephen F. Austin @ Northern Iowa

Elon @ (4) Richmond
New Hampshire @ South Carolina State

McNeese State @ (2) Montana
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State

Holy Cross @ (3) Villanova
William & Mary @ Appalachian State

[UNHWildCats]

EWU has to beat NAU next week I think.

If not, I can see Liberty getting in over a 4-loss EWU.

Liberty should be more concerned with Montana State. At this point I think MSU controls its own destiny for the 16th spot, and Montana hasnt exactly played impressive ball this year, so I wouldnt be surprised to see MSU win.

[UNHWildCats]

EWU has to beat NAU next week I think.

If not, I can see Liberty getting in over a 4-loss EWU.

Definitely true. I think 13 of the 16 team are already decided with just 4-5 teams competing for those last few spots. If UNI, EWU, and SDSU win this weekend then I think the field of 16 will be easy to pick.

To me I think 15 spots are already locked up and its down to 1 of 3 teams in the big sky and liberty for the final spot. At this point regardless of what happens next week I dont see UNI or SDSU being left home even if they had 7-3 records... there just isnt anything out there left that has a resume that can compete with that.

Sure 7-4 doesnt look to nice, but that includes a 1 point loss to a top 25 FBS team and a 3 point loss to a FBS for UNI and SDSU respectively along with loses to #1 SIU.

Of course, for what its worth I dont think either team will lose this week anyway.

[BlueHen86]

Here is how the playoffs are looking. If MSU beats Montana then there will be a major shakeup. Anyone disagree at this point?

Auto Bids
Big Sky: Montana 10-0
CAA: Villanova 9-1
MEAC: SC State 9-1
MVFC: Southern Illinois 9-1
OVC: Eastern Illinois 8-2
Patriot League: Holy Cross 9-1
SoCon: Appalachian State 8-2
SLC: Stephen F. Austin 8-2

At-Large
Big Sky Eastern Washington 7-3 (must win out)
CAA Richmond 9-1
CAA New Hampshire 8-2
CAA William & Mary 9-1
MVFC Northern Iowa 7-3 (must win out)
MVFC South Dakota State 7-3 (must win out)
SoCon: Elon 8-2
Southland McNeese State 8-2

Just Missed
Big South Liberty 7-2

That looks good to me, although I think Weber is next in (over Liberty), expecially if EWU losses to NAU. I think the BSC is too strong of a conference to only get 1 bid.



Disregard the crap I'm giving the BSC on another thread, it's all in jest.

[JayJ79]

If UNI or SDSU loses this week, I'm not sure I'd consider them worthy of a playoff spot, as I think that in that circumstance, there might be other teams more deserving of the at-large.

But I think both teams should be able to win this week.

[UNHWildCats]

If UNI or SDSU loses this week, I'm not sure I'd consider them worthy of a playoff spot, as I think that in that circumstance, there might be other teams more deserving of the at-large.

But I think both teams should be able to win this week.

theres not much out there for teams.

Weber State needs to win to be 7-4 and eligible. An 8-3 Montana State or Eastern Washington gets in over Liberty, so both would need to win to have one even in position to bump UNI or SDSU, but im not sure either trumps a 7-4 UNI or SDSU, though SDSU would be on shakier ground because that would mean they lost to a 1-9 Western Illinois.

Of course all three of those Big Sky teams could lose next week and not even be at-large eligible.

[AZGrizFan]

Liberty should be more concerned with Montana State. At this point I think MSU controls its own destiny for the 16th spot, and Montana hasnt exactly played impressive ball this year, so I wouldnt be surprised to see MSU win.

One bad game. One bad game!

Montana:

1st in scoring offense
1st in total offense
1st in rushing offense
2nd in rushing defense
1st in passing efficiency
1st in interceptions
1st in sacks allowed
1st in 3rd down conversion percentage
1st in red zone defense TD's allowed
2nd in turnover margin
2nd in opponents penalties

I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

[ToTheLeft]

If Elon loses to Samford, you would have to imagine they are out, as well.

[slycat]

Taking a crack at SCFBF's AQ's and At-larges above, here's the brackets I can come up with:

Eastern Illinois @ (1) Southern Illinois
Stephen F. Austin @ Northern Iowa

Elon @ (4) Richmond
New Hampshire @ South Carolina State

McNeese State @ (2) Montana
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State

Holy Cross @ (3) Villanova
William & Mary @ Appalachian State

I say send SDSU to Montana and EWU to McNeese.

[danefan]

Taking a crack at SCFBF's AQ's and At-larges above, here's the brackets I can come up with:

Eastern Illinois @ (1) Southern Illinois
Stephen F. Austin @ Northern Iowa

Elon @ (4) Richmond
New Hampshire @ South Carolina State

McNeese State @ (2) Montana
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State

Holy Cross @ (3) Villanova
William & Mary @ Appalachian State

I say send SDSU to Montana and EWU to McNeese.

I think Montana gets the benefit of the "weaker" McNeese. Plus you know the committee loves the SLC to Montana first round matchup.

But either combination would work for sure.

[JayJ79]

One bad game. One bad game!

Montana:

1st in scoring offense
1st in total offense
1st in rushing offense
2nd in rushing defense
1st in passing efficiency
1st in interceptions
1st in sacks allowed
1st in 3rd down conversion percentage
1st in red zone defense TD's allowed
2nd in turnover margin
2nd in opponents penalties

I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

To clarify, those rankings are for the Big Sky conference, so take them as you will

And Montana is actually 2nd in the BSC (7th overall) in total offense behind EWU
Same with passing efficiency (2nd in the BSC behind EWU, 13th overall), although they are 1st in the BSC in pass eff. defense (56th overall).
And they are 3rd in the BSC in turnover margin (28th overall).
http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rank ... 09&org=441

Not that stats really mean all that much in predicting game outcomes.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Liberty should be more concerned with Montana State. At this point I think MSU controls its own destiny for the 16th spot, and Montana hasnt exactly played impressive ball this year, so I wouldnt be surprised to see MSU win.

One bad game. One bad game!

Montana:

1st in scoring offense
1st in total offense
1st in rushing offense
2nd in rushing defense
1st in passing efficiency
1st in interceptions
1st in sacks allowed
1st in 3rd down conversion percentage
1st in red zone defense TD's allowed
2nd in turnover margin
2nd in opponents penalties

I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

Not to mention the Griz play are playing MSU... only one of the longest running rivalries in college football. They HATE each other. I'd be comfortable in saying that the Griz will not come out soft or treat MSU lightly. The Bobcats will get UM's BEST game.

And for EWU's sake, I hope they smother the Cats.

[slycat]

I say send SDSU to Montana and EWU to McNeese.

I think Montana gets the benefit of the "weaker" McNeese. Plus you know the committee loves the SLC to Montana first round matchup.

But either combination would work for sure.

Its a crap shoot for the SLC. Sending both teams on the road would be shameful IMO. But you are right, a SLC team always gets the burden of playing in Montana. Its tough in the west though because of travel restrictions. And with SDSU being good this year its unfair to make them go on the road as well.

I would imagine that McNeese will pony up for a home game.

[danefan]

I think Montana gets the benefit of the "weaker" McNeese. Plus you know the committee loves the SLC to Montana first round matchup.

But either combination would work for sure.

Its a crap shoot for the SLC. Sending both teams on the road would be shameful IMO. But you are right, a SLC team always gets the burden of playing in Montana. Its tough in the west though because of travel restrictions. And with SDSU being good this year its unfair to make them go on the road as well.

I would imagine that McNeese will pony up for a home game.

And when put up against SDSU its really a toss-up who has the higher bid. SDSU has good attendance and may have a ton of motivation to bid high with this being their first playoffs and all.

[UNHWildCats]

Liberty should be more concerned with Montana State. At this point I think MSU controls its own destiny for the 16th spot, and Montana hasnt exactly played impressive ball this year, so I wouldnt be surprised to see MSU win.

One bad game. One bad game!

Montana:

1st in scoring offense
1st in total offense
1st in rushing offense
2nd in rushing defense
1st in passing efficiency
1st in interceptions
1st in sacks allowed
1st in 3rd down conversion percentage
1st in red zone defense TD's allowed
2nd in turnover margin
2nd in opponents penalties

I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

Looking where games were in the 4th quarter, Montana could easily be 5-5 right now if things didnt always fall their way. Montana will be ripe for a first round exit this year... just like 2007 and 2005 and 2003... see a trend there

[JayJ79]

Its a crap shoot for the SLC. Sending both teams on the road would be shameful IMO. But you are right, a SLC team always gets the burden of playing in Montana. Its tough in the west though because of travel restrictions. And with SDSU being good this year its unfair to make them go on the road as well.

Since when does "fairness" matter when it comes to how the brackets are laid out?

[kalm]

One bad game. One bad game!

Montana:

1st in scoring offense
1st in total offense
1st in rushing offense
2nd in rushing defense
1st in passing efficiency
1st in interceptions
1st in sacks allowed
1st in 3rd down conversion percentage
1st in red zone defense TD's allowed
2nd in turnover margin
2nd in opponents penalties

I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

Looking where games were in the 4th quarter, Montana could easily be 5-5 right now if things didnt always fall their way. Montana will be ripe for a first round exit this year... just like 2007 and 2005 and 2003... see a trend there

But things have been falling Montana's way for a very, very long time. That's not luck, that's what good teams do - they figure out ways to win.

Back to the topic; McNeese, UNI, SDSU, Elon, and the three BSC teams still in the hunt all appear to be very even. Each team has a quality win with the strongest being McNeese @ ASU, and a (would be) MSU win against the Griz. The least quality wins are UNI's against a 6-5 Missouri State and Elon's against a 6-4 Chatty or 5-5 Furman. But I think UNI, SDSU, Elon, and McNeese get in because of wins over the likes of Savannah State, Davidson, Presbyterian, and St. Francis, PA versus the DII's that Montana State and EWU scheduled and the extra FBS gave Weber its 4th loss. (Yes I will beat that horse until it gets fixed)

But if McNeese or Elon losses and at least 2 of the BSC contenders win this week their will be some tough decisions to make and a solid power conference team or two will be left out.

[slycat]

Its a crap shoot for the SLC. Sending both teams on the road would be shameful IMO. But you are right, a SLC team always gets the burden of playing in Montana. Its tough in the west though because of travel restrictions. And with SDSU being good this year its unfair to make them go on the road as well.

Since when does "fairness" matter when it comes to how the brackets are laid out?

Of course never since travel is factored in

[AppGuy04]

I'm failing to see how Elon's wins compare to others, and I'm a SoCon fan. They have blown people out, but arguably their best win was a close call with a 5-5 Furman team. They choked on their home field this weekend, so I think their rank is a little inflated IMO

[MrTitleist]

How is Liberty in this discussion when it pertains to playoffs? Their resume doesn't even come close to comparing to EWU/SDSU/Weber/MT State. SOS has to mean something if this comes down to the last 2-3 spots of playoffs.

[danefan]

How is Liberty in this discussion when it pertains to playoffs? Their resume doesn't even come close to comparing to EWU/SDSU/Weber/MT State. SOS has to mean something if this comes down to the last 2-3 spots of playoffs.

Because they are the "best of the rest" that will end up with 7 DI wins.