Playoff Projections- Nov. 15

[clenz]

There is a 100% chance UNI hosts if they aren't sent to Montana, IMO.

That's true. I can't see UNI getting send to Nova, App State, UNH, etc... first round.

[SuperHornet]

Seven wins? Given a win next week, and Liberty will be 9-2. Snubbing a 9-2 team isn't likely.

In addition, Weber has the nod over EWU in SOS, I believe. I'd like to see three BSC as well (probably UM/Kitties/Weber), but ECB will ensure that we get TWO. If that.

Regardless, I stand by my prediction of Griz over Liberty in Chatty.

So your going to use SOS in the Weber instance but not in evaluating Liberty's schedule:

9/05 @ West Virginia 0-1 (0-0) L 33-20
9/12 North Carolina Central 1-1 (0-0) W 35-10
9/19 @ Lafayette 2-1 (0-0) W 19-13
9/26 James Madison 2-2 (0-0) L 24-10
10/03 West Virginia Wesleyan 3-2 (0-0) W 45-7
10/17 Coastal Carolina 4-2 (1-0) W 58-13
10/24 @ Charleston Southern 5-2 (2-0) W 20-13
10/31 Presbyterian 6-2 (3-0) W 55-19
11/07 Virginia Military Institute 7-2 (4-0) W 54-14
11/14 @ Gardner-Webb 8-2 (5-0) W 51-28
11/21 @ Stony Brook

SOS comes in between teams with the same record. 7-4 does NOT trump 9-2 on SOS alone. Nine wins is nine wins. You play the schedule you're given.

[JayJ79]

SOS comes in between teams with the same record. 7-4 does NOT trump 9-2 on SOS alone. Nine wins is nine wins. You play the schedule you're given.

Hence San Diego's extensive playoff history....

[clenz]

So your going to use SOS in the Weber instance but not in evaluating Liberty's schedule:

9/05 @ West Virginia 0-1 (0-0) L 33-20
9/12 North Carolina Central 1-1 (0-0) W 35-10
9/19 @ Lafayette 2-1 (0-0) W 19-13
9/26 James Madison 2-2 (0-0) L 24-10
10/03 West Virginia Wesleyan 3-2 (0-0) W 45-7
10/17 Coastal Carolina 4-2 (1-0) W 58-13
10/24 @ Charleston Southern 5-2 (2-0) W 20-13
10/31 Presbyterian 6-2 (3-0) W 55-19
11/07 Virginia Military Institute 7-2 (4-0) W 54-14
11/14 @ Gardner-Webb 8-2 (5-0) W 51-28
11/21 @ Stony Brook

SOS comes in between teams with the same record. 7-4 does NOT trump 9-2 on SOS alone. Nine wins is nine wins. You play the schedule you're given.

Tell that to Butler....

[ToTheLeft]

While SH might be a little over the top, Liberty's schedule is not as low as the glorified DIII schedule of the Pioneer...

The point to be made is similar to last year when Maine got in over WM. Winning streak to end the year, and an extra DI win over the competition. LU is poised to be in that spot this year.

[SUUTbird]

I think after South Dakota States near upsetting of FBS Minnesota puts them in the front running for an at large bid, boy if the Jacks get in there are going to be some steamed Bison fans...werent they supposed to be the ones winning at this point?

[native]

Definitely true. I think 13 of the 16 team are already decided with just 4-5 teams competing for those last few spots. If UNI, EWU, and SDSU win this weekend then I think the field of 16 will be easy to pick.

To me I think 15 spots are already locked up and its down to 1 of 3 teams in the big sky and liberty for the final spot. At this point regardless of what happens next week I dont see UNI or SDSU being left home even if they had 7-3 records... there just isnt anything out there left that has a resume that can compete with that.

Sure 7-4 doesnt look to nice, but that includes a 1 point loss to a top 25 FBS team and a 3 point loss to a FBS for UNI and SDSU respectively along with loses to #1 SIU.

Of course, for what its worth I dont think either team will lose this week anyway.

UNI could probably suffer another loss and still make it in, but not South Dakota State. At 7-4, an SDSU loss to Cal Poly looks worse than a 7-4 Weber loss to Montana State. Any 7-4 BSC team has a stronger resume than a 7-4 SDSU. However, I kinda doubt that the jacks will lose at Western Illinois.

Tough to say if Liberty would get into the final at-large spot if EWU and Montana State both lose this weekend and Weber beats CP-SLO to finish 7-4. It will be awfully hard for the selection committee to limit the #2 Big Sky conference to only one playoff spot.

[native]

While SH might be a little over the top, Liberty's schedule is not as low as the glorified DIII schedule of the Pioneer...

The point to be made is similar to last year when Maine got in over WM. Winning streak to end the year, and an extra DI win over the competition. LU is poised to be in that spot this year.

True, but any Big Sky team with 7 DI wins has a stronger resume than Liberty.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

To me I think 15 spots are already locked up and its down to 1 of 3 teams in the big sky and liberty for the final spot. At this point regardless of what happens next week I dont see UNI or SDSU being left home even if they had 7-3 records... there just isnt anything out there left that has a resume that can compete with that.

Sure 7-4 doesnt look to nice, but that includes a 1 point loss to a top 25 FBS team and a 3 point loss to a FBS for UNI and SDSU respectively along with loses to #1 SIU.

Of course, for what its worth I dont think either team will lose this week anyway.

UNI could probably suffer another loss and still make it in, but not South Dakota State. At 7-4, an SDSU loss to Cal Poly looks worse than a 7-4 Weber loss to Montana State. Any 7-4 BSC team has a stronger resume than a 7-4 SDSU. However, I kinda doubt that the jacks will lose at Western Illinois.

Tough to say if Liberty would get into the final at-large spot if EWU and Montana State both lose this weekend and Weber beats CP-SLO to finish 7-4. It will be awfully hard for the selection committee to limit the #2 Big Sky conference to only one playoff spot.

No way UNI makes it in if they lose this weekend. Not a chance in hell.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

UNI could probably suffer another loss and still make it in, but not South Dakota State. At 7-4, an SDSU loss to Cal Poly looks worse than a 7-4 Weber loss to Montana State. Any 7-4 BSC team has a stronger resume than a 7-4 SDSU. However, I kinda doubt that the jacks will lose at Western Illinois.

Tough to say if Liberty would get into the final at-large spot if EWU and Montana State both lose this weekend and Weber beats CP-SLO to finish 7-4. It will be awfully hard for the selection committee to limit the #2 Big Sky conference to only one playoff spot.

No way UNI makes it in if they lose this weekend. Not a chance in hell.

There is a very good chance they would still make it. The committee would look at them in the same light as EWU, WSU, MSU and then select the team with the highest GPI's, and a few other criteria. Them losing just puts them in a more tenuous situation for arguments over who has the best 7-?, record.

If they don't have a shot with the 7 wins then how does any other team with 7 D1 wins have a shot?

I think it makes them suspect but they are still in the conversation even with a loss.

[skinny_uncle]

Its a crap shoot for the SLC. Sending both teams on the road would be shameful IMO. But you are right, a SLC team always gets the burden of playing in Montana. Its tough in the west though because of travel restrictions. And with SDSU being good this year its unfair to make them go on the road as well.

Since when does "fairness" matter when it comes to how the brackets are laid out?

For at-large teams, size of the bid matters more.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

No way UNI makes it in if they lose this weekend. Not a chance in hell.

There is a very good chance they would still make it. The committee would look at them in the same light as EWU, WSU, MSU and then select the team with the highest GPI's, and a few other criteria. Them losing just puts them in a more tenuous situation for arguments over who has the best 7-?, record.

If they don't have a shot with the 7 wins then how does any other team with 7 D1 wins have a shot?

I think it makes them suspect but they are still in the conversation even with a loss.

Because the other 7-win bubble teams have quality wins, whereas UNI's best win in Missouri State.

The teams UNI have beat own an impressive 23-49 (.319) record.

The average GPI of the FCS teams UNI has beat so far is 65.2, compared to the teams EWU has beat so far of 50.3. Factor in one more win this weekend for both teams, UNI is 62.1 vs. EWU at 46.4. Take out the lowest ranked team UNI has beat (Indiana State, 115th) to account for the D-II (WOU, 5-5) that EWU played, and UNI is still only at 54.6.

GPI of teams UNI beat: 32, 33, 34, (40), 54, 84, 105, 115* = 65.2 GPI, (62.1), 54.6*
GPI of teams EWU beat: 20, (23), 31, 47, 57, 68, 79 = 50.3 GPI, (46.4)

Hard evidence that EWU has better wins than UNI.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

There is a very good chance they would still make it. The committee would look at them in the same light as EWU, WSU, MSU and then select the team with the highest GPI's, and a few other criteria. Them losing just puts them in a more tenuous situation for arguments over who has the best 7-?, record.

If they don't have a shot with the 7 wins then how does any other team with 7 D1 wins have a shot?

I think it makes them suspect but they are still in the conversation even with a loss.

Because the other 7-win bubble teams have quality wins, whereas UNI's best win in Missouri State.

The teams UNI have beat own an impressive 23-49 (.319) record.

The average GPI of the FCS teams UNI has beat so far is 65.2, compared to the teams EWU has beat so far of 50.3. Factor in one more win this weekend for both teams, UNI is 62.1 vs. EWU at 46.4. Take out the lowest ranked team UNI has beat (Indiana State, 115th) to account for the D-II (WOU, 5-5) that EWU played, and UNI is still only at 54.6.

GPI of teams UNI beat: 32, 33, 34, (40), 54, 84, 105, 115* = 65.2 GPI, (62.1), 54.6*
GPI of teams EWU beat: 20, (23), 31, 47, 57, 68, 79 = 50.3 GPI, (46.4)

Hard evidence that EWU has better wins than UNI.

They will look at UNI's GPI vs. the other team they are looking at admitting before they will look at UNI's opponents GPI's vs. the other teams opponents GPI's.

I want/think EWU deserves to be in as much as anyone else does but I am watching you make many assumptions that may not come true and if they don't are gonna make you a very unhappy fella for banking on them as hard and fast paradigms.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Because the other 7-win bubble teams have quality wins, whereas UNI's best win in Missouri State.

The teams UNI have beat own an impressive 23-49 (.319) record.

The average GPI of the FCS teams UNI has beat so far is 65.2, compared to the teams EWU has beat so far of 50.3. Factor in one more win this weekend for both teams, UNI is 62.1 vs. EWU at 46.4. Take out the lowest ranked team UNI has beat (Indiana State, 115th) to account for the D-II (WOU, 5-5) that EWU played, and UNI is still only at 54.6.

GPI of teams UNI beat: 32, 33, 34, (40), 54, 84, 105, 115* = 65.2 GPI, (62.1), 54.6*
GPI of teams EWU beat: 20, (23), 31, 47, 57, 68, 79 = 50.3 GPI, (46.4)

Hard evidence that EWU has better wins than UNI.

They will look at UNI's GPI vs. the other team they are looking at admitting before they will look at UNI's opponents GPI's vs. the other teams opponents GPI's.

I want/think EWU deserves to be in as much as anyone else does but I am watching you make many assumptions that may not come true and if they don't are gonna make you a very unhappy fella for banking on them as hard and fast paradigms.

Don't you worry about me buttercup. I'll be fine. You just worry about the Griz beating the Cats this weekend.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

They will look at UNI's GPI vs. the other team they are looking at admitting before they will look at UNI's opponents GPI's vs. the other teams opponents GPI's.

I want/think EWU deserves to be in as much as anyone else does but I am watching you make many assumptions that may not come true and if they don't are gonna make you a very unhappy fella for banking on them as hard and fast paradigms.

Don't you worry about me buttercup. I'll be fine. You just worry about the Griz beating the Cats this weekend.

You got it sweet cheeks.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Don't you worry about me buttercup. I'll be fine. You just worry about the Griz beating the Cats this weekend.

You got it sweet cheeks.

This from UM's AD, and Playoff Selection committee member/rep from the Big Sky/Eastern Region:

If the Eagles and Bobcats both go 8-3, Eastern could get the nod due to its victory over MSU earlier in the year. If MSU beats the Grizzlies this week, that would mean the Cats have a victory over a top five team, a squad the Eagles lost to earlier in the year.

Still, EWU’s win over the Cats on Oct. 24 could trump everything else if both win this week.

“What the committee will do if that happens is look head-to-head” between EWU and MSU, O’Day said Monday. “The head-to-head matchup is big. It would probably favor Eastern Washington in that scenario."

I guess EWU is in better shape than I thought.

(And before you chime in Jalmond, even if WSU beats Cal Poly and owns the head to head, they will have 4 losses which will put EWU ahead of them.

As far as the Big Sky in concerned Eastern Washington, Montana State and Weber State still have playoff aspirations. Eastern Washington and Montana State, both 7-3, probably have the best shot."

)

[G&B]

Montana's 4th best win (NAU or Sac) will be comparable to UNI's best (Missouri State)

The best team Montana will play, would be the 4th best team on UNI's schedule.

No Way In Hell.

[DJH]

The best team Montana will play, would be the 4th best team on UNI's schedule.

No Way In Hell.

Iowa, SIU, and SDSU, are all better than anyone that Montana has played.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

No Way In Hell.

Iowa, SIU, and SDSU, are all better than anyone that Montana has played.

EWU would beat SDSU by 7-10, and MSU might even squeek past them by 3. EWU would go toe to toe with SIU. It wasn't too long ago when an 8-3 EWU beat down a #1 SIU seed in Carbondale.

[AZGrizFan]

No Way In Hell.

Iowa, SIU, and SDSU, are all better than anyone that Montana has played.

Now you just look stupid.

[kalm]

Didn't Montana beat play Cal Poly?

[ChickenMan]

Can UNH be sent somewhere.. anywhere.. other than to UNI???

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Can UNH be sent somewhere.. anywhere.. other than to UNI???

Not unless it has a roof and NDSU and Idaho State ain't gonna make the playoffs.