Electoral Maps - August

[Mvemjsunpx]

Here is the McCain vs. Obama electoral map I put together based on general election polls from July (nothing past 7/31). For each state, I averaged all the polls that finished no earlier than July 1. If there were multiple polls from the same source over that period, I only used that source's latest poll. If the only polls for a particular state were conducted prior to July 1, I just used the most recent poll.

Rasmussen conducted several polls this past month that contained figures both "without leaners" & "with leaners". In all cases, I used the "with leaners" result.


Winner take-all:

• • 

Changes from last month:

• - Obama takes back Indiana after losing it last month.
  - Obama takes back Nevada for the first time since my April map.
  - Obama takes the lead in Florida for the first time.
  - Obama forces a tie in Montana.
  - McCain's only gain is forcing a tie in Ohio.
  - Net result: McCain loses 46 electoral votes, Obama gains 23, & another 23 are now tied.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Here's the gradient map that shows the size of each candidate's lead in each state:

• • 

Other notable changes from last month:

[INDENT]- Obama pulled much closer in South Dakota.
- Obama turned a narrow CT lead into a 19.5 point lead.
- McCain pulled close again in New Hampshire.
- McCain again took a substantial lead in Arkansas.[/INDENT]

[AZGrizFan]

These maps looks suspiciously like the maps at Electoral-vote.com....

If they AREN'T the same maps, why are you recreating the wheel here?

And a followup question: Are the Obamanation people starting to grip? His once glorious 312/199 lead is slip slip slipping away....This is beginning to look like a replay of 2004.

[Mvemjsunpx]

These maps looks suspiciously like the maps at Electoral-vote.com....

They're not. I use different methods & averaged polls from multiple sources over a longer (1 month) period (electoral-vote tends to just use the latest poll). I also used the party polling outlets (PPP, Strategic Vision, Civitas/TelOpinion, etc.) which electoral-vote does not.

If they AREN'T the same maps, why are you recreating the wheel here?

Because it's fun, and I think my methods are better than the others I've seen online. My maps also look at longer periods which capture averages & trends, rather than just the latest single poll. Obviously the maps are going to look similar, particularly for states that only get about 1 poll a month, but I think my system captures a longer-term—but still current—look at the swing states with lots of polls.

And a followup question: Are the Obamanation people starting to grip? His once glorious 312/199 lead is slip slip slipping away....This is beginning to look like a replay of 2004.

Really? From what I've seen, he's increased his lead the past few months.

From my maps:

• April: McCain 295-243 Obama
  June: Obama 287-251 McCain
  July: Obama 306-232 McCain
  August: Obama 329-186 McCain (23 Tied)

[AZGrizFan]

These maps looks suspiciously like the maps at Electoral-vote.com....

They're not. I use different methods & averaged polls from multiple sources over a longer (1 month) period (electoral-vote tends to just use the latest poll). I also used the party polling outlets (PPP, Strategic Vision, Civitas/TelOpinion, etc.) which electoral-vote does not.

If they AREN'T the same maps, why are you recreating the wheel here?

Because it's fun, and I think my methods are better than the others I've seen online. My maps also look at longer periods which capture averages & trends, rather than just the latest single poll. Obviously the maps are going to look similar, particularly for states that only get about 1 poll a month, but I think my system captures a longer-term—but still current—look at the swing states with lots of polls.

And a followup question: Are the Obamanation people starting to grip? His once glorious 312/199 lead is slip slip slipping away....This is beginning to look like a replay of 2004.

Really? From what I've seen, he's increased his lead the past few months.

From my maps:

• April: McCain 295-243 Obama
  June: Obama 287-251 McCain
  July: Obama 306-232 McCain
  August: Obama 329-186 McCain (23 Tied)

Do you do this for a living? Because, no offense intended but, if you don't I'll trust the maps of those that DO do it for a living...and those maps show Obama's lead shrinking by the week.

[BlueHen86]

The latest (08/21/08) Electoral-Vote.com map has:

Obama 264
McCain 261
Tie 13 (Virginia)

[SuperHornet]

Even that gradient map is misleading. Obama's only leading in CA's urban areas. In the suburbs and in the country, everyone I know is picking McCain. Get's me so mad to hear that EVERYONE in Cali's going for Obama. Not true by a long shot.

[dbackjon]

Even that gradient map is misleading. Obama's only leading in CA's urban areas. In the suburbs and in the country, everyone I know is picking McCain. Get's me so mad to hear that EVERYONE in Cali's going for Obama. Not true by a long shot.

Everyone that counts...

[AZGrizFan]

Even that gradient map is misleading. Obama's only leading in CA's urban areas. In the suburbs and in the country, everyone I know is picking McCain. Get's me so mad to hear that EVERYONE in Cali's going for Obama. Not true by a long shot.

Everyone that counts...

And for the democrats, some of them count TWICE.

[SuperHornet]

Everyone that counts...

And for the democrats, some of them count TWICE.

And simultaneously try to exclude the overseas military vote, which they know is just about guaranteed to go to the Elephants.

[OL FU]

No offense but I think Electoral projections at this point that include states that are well within the margin of error don't mean squat.

The below site ( I can't vouch for its statistical validity) seems to have more realistic picture and it still says the probably of an Obama victory is much higher than McCains

http://www.270towin.com/

[Mvemjsunpx]

Even that gradient map is misleading. Obama's only leading in CA's urban areas. In the suburbs and in the country, everyone I know is picking McCain. Get's me so mad to hear that EVERYONE in Cali's going for Obama. Not true by a long shot.

What's your point? Only the statewide vote counts.

And I don't think too many people believe everyone in California is going for Obama, just enough to make him a heavy favorite and to make the state virtually unwinnable for McCain.