Week 9 - Bracket Extravaganza

[Mvemjsunpx]

Here's my first bracket of the year. I apologize for not getting this out earlier in the week, but it took quite a while to compute everything since more than half of eligible FCS can still get to 7 DI wins. I normally don't rank SWAC teams, but I included Prairie View because they're 7-1 and are not likely to get to the SWAC title game.


Here are my bracket's disclaimers:

1. These are the teams I think should be in the field & how they should be seeded, not necessarily who I think the committee will choose.
2. This bracket is based what would happen if the playoffs started today. I'm not attempting to predict future games.
3. I use a points system to determine playoff credentials (that's what the "+#" & "-#" next to the teams in the power rankings are). It's more of an attempt to rank each team's credentials than just a subjective ranking of how good each team is (like a top-25 poll). You can find an detailed explanation of my system in this thread (second post): http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... f=4&t=877.

• Auto-Bid Rankings
  
  1. James Madison (7-1)
  2. Weber St. (7-2)
  3. Wofford (6-1)
  4. South Carolina St. (6-2)
  5. Lafayette (6-1)
  6. Southern Illinois (5-2)
  7. Tennessee-Martin (7-2)
  8. Texas St. (5-3)
  
  
  At-Large Rankings
  
  1. Villanova (5-2)
  2. Richmond (6-3)
  3. Montana (7-1)
  4. Appalachian St. (6-2)
  5. Cal Poly (5-1)
  6. William & Mary (5-2)
  7. New Hampshire (6-1)
  8. Northern Iowa (6-2)

• • • • • • • • Bracket
                
                
                Tennessee-Martin (7-2)
                @ (1) James Madison (7-1)
                
                Wofford (6-1)
                @ South Carolina St. (6-2)
                
                Texas St. (5-3)
                @ Montana (7-1)
                
                Southern Illinois (5-2)
                @ (4) Richmond (6-3)
                
                Lafayette (6-1)
                @ (3) Villanova (5-2)
                
                William & Mary (5-2)
                @ Appalachian St. (6-2)
                
                New Hampshire (6-1)
                @ Northern Iowa (6-2)
                
                Cal Poly (5-1)
                @ (2) Weber St. (7-2)

• Bids by conference:
  
  5 - CAA
  2 - Big Sky, Missouri Valley, SoCon
  1 - Southland, OVC, Patriot, MEAC, Great West

Playoff Power Rankings
Here you can see where your team stands, and where they may move based on this week's results.
(Bold - Denotes Auto-Bid)
(15. Team - Denotes At-Large cutoff line)
(* - Cannot get 7 DI wins)

1. James Madison (7-1) +15
2. Weber St. (7-2) +10
3. Villanova (5-2) +9
4. Richmond (6-3) +9
5. Montana (7-1) +9
6. Wofford (6-1) +7
7. Appalachian St. (6-2) +7
8. Cal Poly (5-1) +7
9. William & Mary (5-2) +7
10. New Hampshire (6-1) +6
11. South Carolina St. (6-2) +6
12. Lafayette (6-1) +6
13. Southern Illinois (5-2) +5
14. Northern Iowa (6-2) +7
15. Elon (7-2) +3
16. Massachusetts (5-3) +3
17. Maine (5-3) +2
18. Northern Arizona (6-2) +3
19. Tennessee St. (5-2) +3
20. Tennessee-Martin (7-2) +4
21. Furman (6-3) +2
22. Liberty (7-1) +3
23. Eastern Kentucky (5-3) +1
24. Jacksonville St. (5-3) +2
25. South Dakota St. (4-4) +1
26. Western Illinois (5-2) +2
27. Hampton (5-2) +1
28. Florida A&M (6-2) +1
29. Colgate (6-2) 0
30. North Dakota St. (4-4) 0
31. Georgia Southern (4-4) -1
32. UC Davis (5-4) -1
33. Texas St. (5-3) 0
34. Samford (4-3) 0
35. Bethune-Cookman (5-2) -1
36. Holy Cross (4-3) -2
37. Albany (5-3) -2
38. Prairie View A&M (7-1) 0
39. Missouri St. (3-4) -2
40. Northwestern St. (5-3) -2
41. Dayton (7-1) -2
42. Eastern Illinois (3-5) -4
43. Morgan St. (5-3) -4
44. San Diego (6-1) -3
45. Sacred Heart (7-1) -3
46. Butler (6-1) -3
47. Delaware St. (3-4) -5
48. Coastal Carolina (4-5) -6
49. Delaware (3-5) -3*
50. The Citadel (3-5) -6
51. Hofstra (3-5) -8
52. Towson (3-5) -8
53. Monmouth (5-3) -7
54. Stephen F. Austin (4-4) -5*
55. Murray St. (3-5) -6*
56. Fordham (3-4) -8
57. Bucknell (4-3) -9
58. Jacksonville (5-3) -8
59. Central Connecticut St. (5-3) -8
60. Lehigh (2-5) -10*

[dbackjon]

I don't see 5 CAA teams in, and I don't see Wofford traveling to SCSU.

[Mvemjsunpx]

I don't see 5 CAA teams in, and I don't see Wofford traveling to SCSU.

Wofford likely won't get a home game unless they get a seed.

SC State's average attendance is more than double Wofford's (13,919 to 6801).

[dbackjon]

I don't see 5 CAA teams in, and I don't see Wofford traveling to SCSU.

Wofford likely won't get a home game unless they get a seed.

SC State's average attendance is more than double Wofford's (13,919 to 6801).

Any of that "Classic" attendance?

[Mvemjsunpx]

Wofford likely won't get a home game unless they get a seed.

SC State's average attendance is more than double Wofford's (13,919 to 6801).

Any of that "Classic" attendance?

No. They played Bethune-Cookman in The Citadel's stadium in Charleston, though.


SC State home attendance

10,020 - vs. Benedict
12,495 - vs. Bethune-Cookman (Charleston, SC)
16,003 - vs. Norfolk St.
17,159 - vs. Hampton

[native]

Hey Mr. Mixpickle,

Why the Cal Poly at Weber State matchup in the first round?

Travel efficiency? Avoiding head-to-head matches between autobid winners?

Not criticizing, just curious.

[Col Hogan]

I don't see 5 CAA teams in, and I don't see Wofford traveling to SCSU.

So, which of those CAA teams would you remove??? They've all earned their positions on the field...

[dbackjon]

I don't see 5 CAA teams in, and I don't see Wofford traveling to SCSU.

So, which of those CAA teams would you remove??? They've all earned their positions on the field...

At this moment, maybe. But you still have a lot of games between them left. I can easily construct a realistic scenario where only three CAA teams have 3 or fewer losses...
Richmond at William & Mary will likely be an elimination game.
Richmond has Hofstra and Delaware (likely wins) so they would be 8-3 before the game
W & M has Towson, Northeastern and at JMU - so they are likely to be at 7-3 before the game.

Villanova is a wild card. Still not sure how good they are. They are good, but they have a tough schedule ahead - road games at NE and Del, home with Towson and UNH. Towson should be easy win, UNH I will call a win. They need to win at least one road game to be 8-3. I think they can do it, but slipping up against UNH and a road game puts them at 7-4.

Now if UMass runs the table, they would be 9-3 and in good shape. Same as if Maine runs the table. Of course, UMass-Maine play each other, so at least one will have 4 losses.

And of course if Hofstra, Towson or URI beat one of the top 7, they that shakes things up as well...

[Col Hogan]

So, which of those CAA teams would you remove??? They've all earned their positions on the field...

At this moment, maybe. But you still have a lot of games between them left. I can easily construct a realistic scenario where only three CAA teams have 3 or fewer losses...
Richmond at William & Mary will likely be an elimination game.
Richmond has Hofstra and Delaware (likely wins) so they would be 8-3 before the game
W & M has Towson, Northeastern and at JMU - so they are likely to be at 7-3 before the game.

Villanova is a wild card. Still not sure how good they are. They are good, but they have a tough schedule ahead - road games at NE and Del, home with Towson and UNH. Towson should be easy win, UNH I will call a win. They need to win at least one road game to be 8-3. I think they can do it, but slipping up against UNH and a road game puts them at 7-4.

Now if UMass runs the table, they would be 9-3 and in good shape. Same as if Maine runs the table. Of course, UMass-Maine play each other, so at least one will have 4 losses.

And of course if Hofstra, Towson or URI beat one of the top 7, they that shakes things up as well...

You also forgot that UMass still has to play UNH...at Durham...

So, I'm not holding my breath for my school...it's possible, but we're a long shot...but I can still see W&M getting a bid with 4 loses...JMU is the auto...Richmond, "Nova I think gets one...it will be interesting to see the outcome of the UMass-Maine, UMass-UNH match...

So, you may be correct that the CAA doesn't get 5...but I think it's still very possible...

[dbackjon]

I doubt a four loss team gets an at-large. I beleive there would be too many other teams with better records.

At 7-4, William and Mary would be basing their entire case on a win over UNH.

[native]

I doubt a four loss team gets an at-large. I believe there would be too many other teams with better records.

At 7-4, William and Mary would be basing their entire case on a win over UNH.

Agreed. Although William & Mary is 3-1 in conference so far and #9 in this week's Sagarin ratings, they still have to play Richmond and James Madison. Unfortunately for W&M, JMU is rated #1 and Richmond #2.

Unless they can pull off at least one upset, it's hard to see how W&M can avoid slipping below the top 14 or so probably required to get an invitation, since at least two of the autobids will go to teams unlikely to make it even to the top 20.

Must admit that the CAA makes an impressive Sagarin showing, snagging SEVEN of Jeff's top 14 FCS spots:
1 James Madison
2 Richmond
5 Villanova
9 William & Mary
10 New Hampshire
12 Massachusetts
14 Maine

Northern Arizona comes in at 16 after their loss to Weber. With three games left including #4 Montana, their strength of schedule rating will remain high. The Lumberjacks have a good chance to finish 7-3 against D1 teams and possibly back into Sagarin's top 12 if they play Montana well and win convincingly vs Montana State and at Eastern Washington.

Unless someone surprises the top dwellers in the CAA, the second tier of CAA teams is likely to knock each other below the top 12 and out of contention, no? What would separate a 7-3 (D1) NAU from a 7-4 (D1) W&M? ...or a 7-5 (D1) UMass or Maine?

[weberwildcat]

I would love to see WSU / Cal Poly game.

A. if wsu cant get a home game cal poly is the only school within 2,000 miles unless they want a wsu / um rematch. we could get some wsu busses to cal poly.

B. wsu owes cal poly for last yr's beat down.

[OL FU]

At this moment, maybe. But you still have a lot of games between them left. I can easily construct a realistic scenario where only three CAA teams have 3 or fewer losses...
Richmond at William & Mary will likely be an elimination game.
Richmond has Hofstra and Delaware (likely wins) so they would be 8-3 before the game
W & M has Towson, Northeastern and at JMU - so they are likely to be at 7-3 before the game.

Villanova is a wild card. Still not sure how good they are. They are good, but they have a tough schedule ahead - road games at NE and Del, home with Towson and UNH. Towson should be easy win, UNH I will call a win. They need to win at least one road game to be 8-3. I think they can do it, but slipping up against UNH and a road game puts them at 7-4.

Now if UMass runs the table, they would be 9-3 and in good shape. Same as if Maine runs the table. Of course, UMass-Maine play each other, so at least one will have 4 losses.

And of course if Hofstra, Towson or URI beat one of the top 7, they that shakes things up as well...

You also forgot that UMass still has to play UNH...at Durham...

So, I'm not holding my breath for my school...it's possible, but we're a long shot...but I can still see W&M getting a bid with 4 loses...JMU is the auto...Richmond, "Nova I think gets one...it will be interesting to see the outcome of the UMass-Maine, UMass-UNH match...

So, you may be correct that the CAA doesn't get 5...but I think it's still very possible...

I have a difficult time seeing anyone get an at large bid this year with four losses. It could happen but it would be tough. some one on the uffp constructed a scenario where Wofford beats app FU beats Wofford ( long shot in my opinion but this is hypothetical) and you end up with Co-Socon champs (WC and ASU) and two teams at 9-3 (6-2 in the SoCon), Furman and Elon. Furman stays home at 9-3 because four SoCon teams won't go. Hypothetical, of course. But with the number of games played this year and the number of teams in the running a 4 loss CAA team sits at home this year IMHO.

Liberty, they still have a shot even if they lose to Elon.
Two MEAC teams. FAMU could end up 9-2
Two PL teams, doubtful but possible.
OVC seems to squeak in two somehow someway.
The big Sky could have three three loss or less teams.
The Gateway confuses me so I would have to look at the possibilities.
The Southland is helping since UCA is not eligible.
The point is I will be very surprised if a four loss team gets in (unless the AQ somehow) and surprised if the CAA gets five teams. This is a tough years to dominate one-half of the at large spots.

[OL FU]

I doubt a four loss team gets an at-large. I beleive there would be too many other teams with better records.

At 7-4, William and Mary would be basing their entire case on a win over UNH.

I like your version better than mine. Much shorter

[Mvemjsunpx]

Hey Mr. Mixpickle,

Why the Cal Poly at Weber State matchup in the first round?

Travel efficiency? Avoiding head-to-head matches between autobid winners?

Not criticizing, just curious.

Normally, I would have put Texas State @ Weber since it's the weakest western team against the strongest. However, that would require Cal Poly to go to Montana yet again. I think (hope?) the committee wouldn't force the two to play twice in the same season for the second time in 4 years.

I admit Cal Poly would not be a friendly draw for Weber, though. The Mustangs are dangerous & match up pretty well to you guys.