Week 12 - Bracket Extravaganza

[Mvemjsunpx]

Here's the new bracket for this week. There's finally a new at-large team in Maine. There are a few auto-bid changes, too, though none have been clinched yet (Texas State replaces NW State; Holy Cross replaces Colgate; UTM replaces Tennessee State). App State retakes the #2 seed after a quality win over Elon, pushing Nova & Weber each down a notch. It doesn't affect the bracket, but there was one odd quirk in my playoff power rankings: despite losing the Jacksonville State, Tennessee State stays as the highest ranked OVC team courtesy of their 2-1 record against the other teams in that group of four. The Tigers have no way of winning the OVC auto-bid, though, since the UTM/EKU winner will end up 7-1. I would not be surprised to see them or the UTM/EKU loser get an at-large bid if the right teams go down this week. Another thing to watch is the Missouri Valley battle. Northern Iowa fell rather sharply in the power rankings this week since Southern Illinois now has good enough credentials so that their win over UNI is enough to put them ahead of UNI. If the committee sees that the same way (assuming SIU beats Illinois State to get the auto-bid), UNI has no real shot at a seed.


Here are my bracket's disclaimers:

1. These are the teams I think should be in the field & how they should be seeded, not necessarily who I think the committee will choose.
2. This bracket is based what would happen if the playoffs started today. I'm not attempting to predict future games.
3. I use a points system to determine playoff credentials (that's what the "+#" & "-#" next to the teams in the power rankings are). It's more of an attempt to rank each team's credentials than just a subjective ranking of how good each team is (like a top-25 poll). You can find an detailed explanation of my system in this thread (second post): http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... f=4&t=877.

• Auto-Bid Rankings
  
  1. James Madison (9-1)
  2. Appalachian St. (9-2)
  3. Weber St. (9-2)
  4. Northern Iowa (9-2)
  5. South Carolina St. (9-2)
  6. Tennessee-Martin (8-3)
  7. Holy Cross (7-3)
  8. Texas St. (7-4)
  
  
  At-Large Rankings
  
  1. Villanova (8-2)
  2. Montana (10-1)
  3. Cal Poly (8-1)
  4. Richmond (8-3)
  5. New Hampshire (8-2)
  6. Wofford (8-2)
  7. Southern Illinois (8-2)
  8. Maine (8-3)

• • • • • • • • Bracket
                
                
                Tennessee-Martin (8-3)
                @ (1) James Madison (9-1)
                
                Wofford (8-2)
                @ South Carolina St. (9-2)
                
                Southern Illinois (8-2)
                @ Cal Poly (8-1)
                
                Texas St. (7-4)
                @ (4) Weber St. (9-2)
                
                Holy Cross (7-3)
                @ (3) Villanova (8-2)
                
                New Hampshire (8-2)
                @ Montana (10-1)
                
                Richmond (8-3)
                @ Northern Iowa (9-2)
                
                Maine (8-3)
                @ (2) Appalachian St. (9-2)

• Bids by conference:
  
  5 - CAA
  2 - Big Sky, Missouri Valley, SoCon
  1 - Southland, OVC, Patriot, MEAC, Great West

Playoff Power Rankings
Here you can see where your team stands, and where they may move based on this week's results.
(Bold - Denotes Current Auto-Bid)
(Blue - Denotes Clinched Auto-Bid)
(15. Team - Denotes At-Large cutoff line)
(* - Cannot get 7 DI wins)

1. James Madison (9-1) +20
2. Appalachian St. (9-2) +14
3. Villanova (8-2) +13
4. Weber St. (9-2) +12
5. Montana (10-1) +12
6. Cal Poly (8-1) +11
7. Richmond (8-3) +10
8. New Hampshire (8-2) +9
9. Wofford (8-2) +8
10. Southern Illinois (8-2) +9
11. Northern Iowa (9-2) +11
12. South Carolina St. (9-2) +8
13. Maine (8-3) +5
14. William & Mary (7-3) +5
15. Tennessee St. (8-3) +6
16. Tennessee-Martin (8-3) +6
17. Eastern Kentucky (7-3) +5
18. Jacksonville St. (8-3) +6
19. Elon (8-3) +4
20. Colgate (8-2) +3
21. Prairie View A&M (9-1) +5
22. Bethune-Cookman (8-2) +2
23. Furman (7-4) +2
24. Holy Cross (7-3) +1
25. Liberty (9-2) +2
26. South Dakota St. (6-5) 0
27. North Dakota St. (6-4) +1
28. Lafayette (7-3) +1
29. Florida A&M (8-3) +1
30. Texas St. (7-4) -1
31. McNeese St. (7-3) +1*
32. Albany (8-3) -3
33. Western Illinois (6-4) 0*
34. Coastal Carolina (6-4) -4
35. Dayton (9-2) -3
36. Morgan St. (6-5) -5
37. Jacksonville (8-3) -6
38. San Diego (8-2) -4
39. Northwestern St. (6-5) -4*
40. Hampton (5-5) -7*
41. Delaware St. (4-6) -8*

[AZGrizFan]

Do you think Maine and UNH should BOTH be in REGARDLESS of the outcome this weekend? I don't think an 8-4 Maine team gets in over a 9-3 Elon team....

[AZGrizFan]

I also don't think CAA gets two seeds.

And I also don't think SCS gets a home game.

[skinny_uncle]

If SIU wins Saturday, they will have the MoValley autobid, not UNI. Tenn-Martin could lose theirs to EKU this weekend. If UTM does win, I doubt they travel to JMU. They will find an opponent for JMU (Holy Cross?) that involves less travel expense. The same could be said for some of the other pairings.

[weberwildcat]

What is the lowest seed to ever win a national title?

has 5-16 ever won? is it always 1-4????

[godukes]

I think JMU is going to play the winner of the Holy Cross/Colgate game. I don't think Villanova is going to get a top four seed. They barely won last weekend against Towson.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

What is the lowest seed to ever win a national title?

has 5-16 ever won? is it always 1-4????

I'm pretty sure Montana was a 6 seed in 1995. I don't really know about the rest.

[AZGrizFan]

What is the lowest seed to ever win a national title?

has 5-16 ever won? is it always 1-4????

I'm pretty sure Montana was a 6 seed in 1995. I don't really know about the rest.

I don't think ASU was a seed in at least one of the years they won....I could be wrong though.

[AZGrizFan]

I'm pretty sure Montana was a 6 seed in 1995. I don't really know about the rest.

I don't think ASU was a seed in at least one of the years they won....I could be wrong though.

In fact, just last year, the 4 seeds were UNI, Montana, McNeese and SIU.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

In fact, just last year, the 4 seeds were UNI, Montana, McNeese and SIU.

Yeah I posted that on another thread this last week but it's debatable if they were #5 or where they would have been since there ate no seeds past four anymore. As you say though they were definitely not top 4.

[grizzaholic]

That is a very good looking bracket.

[Montucky]

I also like the look of the bracket. I hit a slow spot at work and decide to take the public data from TSN and rank the potential playoff field by what each team does best. This will be long, but it should give a pretty quick and general glance at where each team excels. Interestingly, only 1 team is in the top 35 (of all teams) in EVERY category, suggesting a very balanced, complete package: Montana Grizzlies. But I didn't want to be bias to my team (facts are facts) so I checked which team had the highest number of categories (below) ranked in the top 10. Cal Poly was in the Top10 in 5 categories, as was New Hampshire, AppSt was second with 4 top ten categories. I expect the formatting won't be perfect, so take a look at the rankings for each team (your team) and when the matchup come out, you should be able to get an idea of what type of game it will be. Passing/defensive or sloppy. Its all general, but by now you got a pretty good idea of what type of team you are rooting for. I realize, that after the final week the numbers will change a little, but again, no team is reinventing themselves at this point. Have fun. I can't wait for the selection sunday show. I hope you all are as excited as I am.

RUSHING
Rank Team G Rsh Net Avg TD Ydspg
1. Wofford 10 552 3463 6.27 39 346.30
3. Cal Poly 9 413 2732 6.62 35 303.56
4. Colgate 10 512 2724 5.32 30 272.40
5. James Madison 10 473 2627 5.55 30 262.70
6. Appalachian St. 11 497 2823 5.68 33 256.64
9. McNeese St. 10 457 2367 5.18 29 236.70
15. UNI 11 500 2221 4.44 24 201.91
16. Maine 11 475 2219 4.67 20 201.73
18. Villanova 10 467 1995 4.27 20 199.50
19. Texas St. 11 407 2192 5.39 23 199.27
20. South Carolina St. 11 395 2184 5.53 26 198.55
24. Richmond 11 460 2113 4.59 31 192.09
28. Tenn.-Martin 11 392 1964 5.01 25 178.55
32. Southern Ill. 10 377 1726 4.58 17 172.60
35. Montana 11 454 1880 4.14 22 170.91
37. New Hampshire 10 355 1704 4.80 18 170.40
38. William & Mary 10 330 1699 5.15 14 169.90
48. Elon 11 395 1670 4.23 11 151.82
70. Weber St. 11 361 1418 3.93 19 128.91
79. Eastern Ky. 10 338 1173 3.47 15 117.30
82. Holy Cross 10 298 1152 3.87 14 115.20

RUSHING DEFENSE
Rank Team G Rsh Net Avg TD Ydspg
6. Villanova 10 288 840 2.92 7 84.0
9. Cal Poly 9 277 787 2.84 11 87.4
16. Southern Ill. 10 350 983 2.81 13 98.3
17. Holy Cross 10 274 986 3.60 9 98.6
20. Richmond 11 371 1153 3.11 7 104.8
24. UNI 11 361 1195 3.31 12 108.6
25. Montana 11 331 1199 3.62 8 109.0
26. South Carolina St.11 444 1211 2.73 11 110.1
27. Wofford 10 335 1131 3.38 10 113.1
28. McNeese St. 10 306 1140 3.73 11 114.0
31. Weber St. 11 350 1278 3.65 13 116.2
42. Maine 11 372 1432 3.85 13 130.2
44. New Hampshire 10 388 1317 3.39 14 131.7
44. James Madison 10 349 1317 3.77 13 131.7
52. Elon 11 394 1534 3.89 11 139.5
54. Eastern Ky. 10 375 1401 3.74 13 140.1
69. William & Mary 10 394 1553 3.94 15 155.3
74. Tenn.-Martin 11 455 1768 3.89 19 160.7
76. Texas St. 11 395 1769 4.48 16 160.8
80. Colgate 10 324 1659 5.12 17 165.9
82. Appalachian St. 11 409 1849 4.52 17 168.1

PASSING OFFENSE
Rank Team G Att Com Int Pct Yds TD YDPG
3. Holy Cross 10 496 324 16 65.32 3522 31 352.2
5. Weber St. 11 364 247 8 67.86 3550 34 322.7
17. Texas St. 11 365 214 10 58.63 2904 31 264.0
22. New Hampshire 10 289 198 8 68.51 2535 25 253.5
25. Elon 11 395 245 15 62.03 2730 24 248.2
30. William & Mary 10 314 193 12 61.46 2426 24 242.6
33. Montana 11 297 187 7 62.96 2635 27 239.5
39. McNeese St. 10 276 167 4 60.51 2280 19 228.0
45. Tenn.-Martin 11 292 166 10 56.85 2402 23 218.4
48. Appalachian St. 11 246 155 2 63.01 2367 26 215.2
60. Eastern Ky. 10 287 180 6 62.72 1987 8 198.7
63. Cal Poly 9 163 100 1 61.35 1711 20 190.1
64. Southern Ill. 10 274 159 8 58.03 1899 15 189.9
65. Villanova 10 240 157 11 65.42 1896 12 189.6
71. Richmond 11 250 157 5 62.80 2008 11 182.5
78. South Carolina St. 11 278 166 9 59.71 1952 13 177.5
89. UNI 11 218 133 6 61.01 1817 13 165.2
100. Colgate 10 177 105 8 59.32 1489 11 148.9
104. Maine 11 218 125 7 57.34 1528 16 138.9
109. Wofford 10 119 76 4 63.87 1274 9 127.4
110. James Madison 10 147 89 3 60.54 1188 15 118.8

PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE
Rank Team G Att Com Pct Int Yds TD Rating
5. Appalachian St. 11 363 184 50.69 18 2071 10 97.80
13. Richmond 11 288 167 57.99 15 1594 9 104.39
14. South Carolina St. 11 301 180 59.80 17 1727 8 105.47
17. UNI 11 330 181 54.85 15 2081 8 106.68
18. Maine 11 348 190 54.60 17 2063 13 106.95
22. Weber St. 11 377 202 53.58 14 2377 14 111.39
28. James Madison 10 274 159 58.03 10 1610 11 113.31
34. Montana 11 356 198 55.62 14 2300 15 115.91
35. William & Mary 10 305 185 60.66 15 1806 15 116.83
38. New Hampshire 10 385 239 62.08 19 2393 15 117.30
42. Eastern Ky. 10 303 177 58.42 16 1992 14 118.31
47. Elon 11 328 189 57.62 10 1990 17 119.57
48. Southern Ill. 10 340 206 60.59 13 2161 14 119.93
60. Cal Poly 9 323 175 54.18 11 2301 17 124.60
66. Tenn.-Martin 11 310 178 57.42 7 2172 14 126.64
71. Colgate 10 301 166 55.15 5 2080 17 128.46
78. McNeese St. 10 335 189 56.42 11 2298 24 131.10
80. Villanova 10 336 212 63.10 12 2334 18 131.99
82. Holy Cross 10 359 216 60.17 11 2642 18 132.44
92. Wofford 10 357 239 66.95 12 2485 21 138.06
93. Texas St. 11 399 231 57.89 11 2975 28 138.18

TOTAL OFFENSE
Rank Team G Pl Yds Avg TD Ydspg
1. Cal Poly 9 576 4443 7.71 57 493.67
2. Wofford 10 671 4737 7.06 50 473.70
3. Appalachian St. 11 743 5190 6.99 60 471.82
4. Holy Cross 10 794 4674 5.89 46 467.40
5. McNeese St. 10 733 4647 6.34 52 464.70
6. Texas St. 11 772 5096 6.60 55 463.27
7. Weber St. 11 725 4968 6.85 55 451.64
10. New Hampshire 10 644 4239 6.58 49 423.90
13. Colgate 10 689 4213 6.11 41 421.30
17. William & Mary 10 644 4125 6.41 44 412.50
18. Montana 11 751 4515 6.01 50 410.45
24. Elon 11 790 4400 5.57 37 400.00
27. Tenn.-Martin 11 684 4366 6.38 57 396.91
33. Villanova 10 707 3891 5.50 34 389.10
38. James Madison 10 620 3815 6.15 51 381.50
40. South Carolina St. 11 673 4136 6.15 44 376.00
41. Richmond 11 710 4121 5.80 47 374.64
47. UNI 11 718 4038 5.62 39 367.09
50. Southern Ill. 10 651 3625 5.57 40 362.50
67. Maine 11 693 3747 5.41 38 340.64
81. Eastern Ky. 10 625 3160 5.06 24 316.00

TOTAL DEFENSE
Rank Team G Pl Yds Avg TD Ydspg
4. Richmond 11 659 2747 4.17 20 249.73
8. South Carolina St. 11 745 2938 3.94 23 267.09
15. James Madison 10 623 2927 4.70 25 292.70
16. UNI 11 691 3276 4.74 21 297.82
26. Southern Ill. 10 690 3144 4.56 28 314.40
30. Villanova 10 624 3174 5.09 27 317.40
32. Maine 11 720 3495 4.85 27 317.73
33. Montana 11 687 3499 5.09 24 318.09
34. Elon 11 722 3524 4.88 31 320.36
45. Weber St. 11 727 3655 5.03 28 332.27
50. William & Mary 10 699 3359 4.81 30 335.90
53. Eastern Ky. 10 678 3393 5.00 27 339.30
55. Cal Poly 9 600 3088 5.15 28 343.11
57. McNeese St. 10 641 3438 5.36 37 343.80
72. Appalachian St. 11 772 3920 5.08 31 356.36
73. Tenn.-Martin 11 765 3940 5.15 37 358.18
78. Wofford 10 692 3616 5.23 32 361.60
79. Holy Cross 10 633 3628 5.73 32 362.80
83. New Hampshire 10 773 3710 4.80 29 371.00
85. Colgate 10 625 3739 5.98 34 373.90
105. Texas St. 11 794 4744 5.97 45 431.27

SCORING OFFENSE
Rank Team G Pts Avg TD Kxp Oxp FG Sf
1. Cal Poly 9 418 46.44 57 54 1 6 1
2. Appalachian St. 11 437 39.73 60 54 1 7 0
3. McNeese St. 10 383 38.30 52 45 4 6 0
4. James Madison 10 380 38.00 51 48 1 8 0
5. Tenn.-Martin 11 417 37.91 57 52 3 5 1
6. Texas St. 11 412 37.45 55 52 0 10 0
7. New Hampshire 10 372 37.20 49 46 0 10 1
8. Weber St. 11 405 36.82 55 47 2 8 0
9. Wofford 10 368 36.80 50 45 1 7 0
13. Holy Cross 10 351 35.10 46 45 0 10 0
16. Montana 11 377 34.27 50 42 0 9 4
18. William & Mary 10 341 34.10 44 44 0 11 0
19. Richmond 11 367 33.36 47 46 0 13 0
26. Southern Ill. 10 316 31.60 40 36 1 12 1
27. Colgate 10 307 30.70 41 35 1 8 0
37. Elon 11 320 29.09 37 33 0 21 1
43. South Carolina St. 11 311 28.27 44 36 1 3 0
45. UNI 11 308 28.00 39 36 0 12 1
46. Villanova 10 279 27.90 34 31 0 14 1
58. Maine 11 280 25.45 38 35 0 5 1
76. Eastern Ky. 10 223 22.30 24 23 1 18 0

SCORING DEFENSE
Rank Team G TD Kxp Oxp Fg Sf Pts PtPg
6. UNI 11 21 18 0 9 0 171 15.5
9. Richmond 11 20 16 1 14 0 180 16.4
10. South Carolina St. 11 23 20 0 8 1 184 16.7
11. Montana 11 24 23 1 11 0 204 18.5
20. James Madison 10 25 23 1 8 0 199 19.9
24. Weber St. 11 28 25 2 8 2 225 20.5
26. Eastern Ky. 10 27 21 1 7 0 206 20.6
28. Maine 11 27 25 0 13 1 228 20.7
31. Elon 11 31 26 0 6 0 230 20.9
34. Villanova 10 27 26 0 8 0 212 21.2
37. Southern Ill. 10 28 28 0 7 0 217 21.7
38. Appalachian St. 11 31 30 0 7 1 239 21.7
43. New Hampshire 10 29 24 2 8 0 226 22.6
49. Cal Poly 9 28 24 2 3 1 207 23.0
57. William & Mary 10 30 29 0 10 1 241 24.1
63. Wofford 10 32 31 0 9 0 250 25.0
66. Holy Cross 10 32 28 0 12 0 256 25.6
67. Tenn.-Martin 11 37 30 2 9 0 283 25.7
72. Colgate 10 34 27 3 10 0 267 26.7
77. McNeese St. 10 37 32 0 7 0 275 27.5
91. Texas St. 11 45 37 2 6 0 331 30.1

TURNOVER MARGIN
Rank Team Gain Loss
G Fm Int Tot Fm Int Tot Mrg
2. New Hampshire 10 12 19 31 6 8 14 1.70
6. Cal Poly 9 7 11 18 5 1 6 1.33
7. Maine 11 9 17 26 5 7 12 1.27
9. Eastern Ky. 10 9 16 25 7 6 13 1.20
10. UNI 11 12 15 27 8 6 14 1.18
12. James Madison 10 8 10 18 5 3 8 1.00
12. Wofford 10 9 12 21 7 4 11 1.00
17. Weber St. 11 11 14 25 7 8 15 .91
19. Appalachian St. 11 6 18 24 13 2 15 .82
22. South Carolina St. 11 8 17 25 8 9 17 .73
22. Richmond 11 8 15 23 10 5 15 .73
24. Southern Ill. 10 11 13 24 9 8 17 .70
24. McNeese St. 10 7 11 18 7 4 11 .70
32. Montana 11 7 14 21 9 7 16 .45
37. Colgate 10 11 5 16 4 8 12 .40
39. Tenn.-Martin 11 15 7 22 8 10 18 .36
57. Villanova 10 6 12 18 7 11 18 .00
57. Texas St. 11 9 11 20 10 10 20 .00
70. Elon 11 10 10 20 7 15 22 -.18
82. William & Mary 10 4 15 19 11 12 23 -.40
100. Holy Cross 10 4 11 15 6 16 22 -.70

NET PUNTING
Rank Team G Punt Yds Avg Ret Rtyd NetAvg
2. Montana 11 41 1773 43.24 18 145 37.27
3. New Hampshire 10 33 1287 39.00 11 66 37.00
13. Elon 11 41 1646 40.15 17 121 35.24
19. Texas St. 11 38 1454 38.26 10 74 34.74
27. James Madison 10 31 1160 37.42 8 76 34.32
28. Eastern Ky. 10 51 1994 39.10 16 146 34.27
33. Wofford 10 23 845 36.74 10 40 34.13
44. Holy Cross 10 35 1351 38.60 17 112 33.69
46. Weber St. 11 46 1684 36.61 15 80 33.57
49. Cal Poly 9 28 972 34.71 7 34 33.50
54. William & Mary 10 42 1673 39.83 13 121 33.14
58. South Carolina St. 11 52 2153 41.40 25 318 32.98
72. Maine 11 54 2215 41.02 29 314 32.24
79. McNeese St. 10 38 1454 38.26 13 207 31.76
81. UNI 11 51 1993 39.08 19 201 31.61
82. Appalachian St. 11 47 1938 41.23 21 335 31.55
83. Colgate 10 34 1270 37.35 16 201 31.44
92. Richmond 11 40 1415 35.38 12 116 30.48
102. Tenn.-Martin 11 46 1801 39.15 25 393 29.74
109. Villanova 10 31 1043 33.65 9 102 29.06

PUNT RETURNS
Rank Team G Ret Yds TD Avg
11. Montana 11 23 357 1 15.52
16. James Madison 10 25 351 4 14.04
20. Tenn.-Martin 11 25 328 1 13.12
24. Richmond 11 32 401 0 12.53
32. Weber St. 11 29 329 0 11.34
38. South Carolina St. 11 16 173 1 10.81
41. Southern Ill. 10 21 219 1 10.43
42. Villanova 10 17 176 0 10.35
47. William & Mary 10 21 209 1 9.95
48. McNeese St. 10 22 217 1 9.86
51. UNI 11 24 230 0 9.58
57. Wofford 10 12 107 0 8.92
59. New Hampshire 10 10 88 0 8.80
63. Elon 11 24 204 2 8.50
64. Cal Poly 9 23 195 0 8.48
73. Eastern Ky. 10 16 131 0 8.19
86. Holy Cross 10 24 170 0 7.08
92. Maine 11 12 83 0 6.92
105. Appalachian St. 11 30 150 0 5.00
116. Colgate 10 10 30 0 3.00
118. Texas St. 11 10 23 0 2.30

KICKOFF RETURNS
Rank Team G Kret Yds TD Avg
3. New Hampshire 10 37 919 1 24.84
5. Southern Ill. 10 32 767 3 23.97
7. Texas St. 11 47 1114 0 23.70
15. Weber St. 11 26 591 0 22.73
25. Villanova 10 28 615 0 21.96
27. Montana 11 45 969 0 21.53
28. Tenn.-Martin 11 49 1054 1 21.51
29. James Madison 10 32 688 1 21.50
31. William & Mary 10 38 814 1 21.42
36. McNeese St. 10 42 893 0 21.26
42. Elon 11 47 990 0 21.06
47. UNI 11 33 686 0 20.79
50. Holy Cross 10 43 888 1 20.65
59. Maine 11 40 796 0 19.90
63. Richmond 11 36 713 0 19.81
64. Wofford 10 45 887 0 19.71
65. Colgate 10 49 965 0 19.69
70. Eastern Ky. 10 32 623 0 19.47
72. Appalachian St. 11 36 698 0 19.39
113. South Carolina St. 11 34 534 0 15.71
117. Cal Poly 9 30 428 0 14.27

Hopefully the GRIZZZ won't choke it up this year and will make a nice run.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Do you think Maine and UNH should BOTH be in REGARDLESS of the outcome this weekend? I don't think an 8-4 Maine team gets in over a 9-3 Elon team....

Keep in mind this is based on how things stand now. I'm not predicting this week's games here.

Maine is probably done if they lose to UNH. UNH still has a shot if they lose, but they may need Elon to lose to Liberty.

[Mvemjsunpx]

What is the lowest seed to ever win a national title?

has 5-16 ever won? is it always 1-4????

Oh yes. Relatively often, actually.

Under the current (only 4 seeds) format used since 2001, three of the champions have been unseeded: 2002 Western Kentucky, 2004 James Madison, 2007 Appalachian State.

[AZGrizFan]

I also like the look of the bracket. I hit a slow spot at work and decide to take the public data from TSN and rank the potential playoff field by what each team does best. This will be long, but it should give a pretty quick and general glance at where each team excels. Interestingly, only 1 team is in the top 35 (of all teams) in EVERY category, suggesting a very balanced, complete package: Montana Grizzlies. But I didn't want to be bias to my team (facts are facts) so I checked which team had the highest number of categories (below) ranked in the top 10. Cal Poly was in the Top10 in 5 categories, as was New Hampshire, AppSt was second with 4 top ten categories. I expect the formatting won't be perfect, so take a look at the rankings for each team (your team) and when the matchup come out, you should be able to get an idea of what type of game it will be. Passing/defensive or sloppy. Its all general, but by now you got a pretty good idea of what type of team you are rooting for. I realize, that after the final week the numbers will change a little, but again, no team is reinventing themselves at this point. Have fun. I can't wait for the selection sunday show. I hope you all are as excited as I am.

Monty---while the stats (which I deleted) are nice, I'm not sure they're worth a crap since they're not comparative. Take a few years ago, for example...SIU came to town with a fella named Whitlock (I believe) who was supposed to just run all OVER the Griz because he'd run all over every MVC team that year. The Griz shut HIM and SIU down. The next week, however another guy from UMass by the name of Baylark came to town...HE was supposed to run over the Griz also....and he did which tells me that in THAT year, CAA run defenses were better than MVC run defenses. And without common opponents to judge by, the conference stats just don't really mean much.

Just my two cents...

[Montucky]

There's plenty of truth to that. I was at the UMass game, thanks for bringing up that cold, miserable, Swogger loss.

Still, stats are stats and you can get a glimpse of whether a team is a running team or passing team. Offensive minded or defensive minded. GENERAL interpretations of what teams do well and poorly. I wasn't ranking each team based on the results. So while I dont believe the stats are worthless, 'That's why we play the games'. Any given saturday. Play like a team, win like team and all that cliche crap.

[Mvemjsunpx]

I also don't think CAA gets two seeds.

It's definitely plausible. Villanova is only a hail mary away from being where JMU is now. They also beat Richmond & New Hampshire & could add William & Mary to the list this weekend.

And I also don't think SCS gets a home game.

If they don't play a seed, they probably will. SC State's home attendance dwarfs Wofford, their most likely first-round opponent.


Here are the attendance rankings of possible playoff participants (these are from the NCAA Accumulated Attendance Report; I'm not sure how accurate all the numbers are):

• 1. Appalachian St. - 28,727
  2. Montana - 24,768
  3. SC State (NCAA figure) - 18,355*
  4. North Dakota St. - 17,953
  5. James Madison - 15,946
  6. Tennessee St. - 15,444
  7. Florida A&M - 14,383
  8. Liberty - 14,046
  9. McNeese St. - 13,829
  9a. SC State (MEAC figure) - 13,385*
  10. Northern Iowa - 13,335
  11. Jacksonville St. - 11,281
  12. Texas St. - 11,225
  13. Furman - 10,073
  14. Cal Poly - 10,017
  15. South Dakota St. - 9907
  16. William & Mary - 9804
  17. Southern Illinois - 9654
  18. Elon - 9220
  19. Northwestern St. - 8615
  20. Eastern Kentucky - 8483
  21. Holy Cross - 8431
  22. Lafayette - 8231
  23. Richmond - 8206
  24. New Hampshire - 8000
  25. Wofford - 7443
  26. Villanova - 7131
  27. Weber St. - 6524
  28. Colgate - 5625
  29. Bethune-Cookman - 5494
  30. Maine - 4488
  31. Tennessee-Martin - 4480
  
  
  * - There are at least a couple errors with SC State's attendance. The NCAA website lists the attendance for the SCSU/Howard game as 30,239, but the MEAC website lists it as 11,239. I also believe the NCAA counted SCSU's game against Bethune-Cookman as a neutral game (it should be home) because it was played at The Citadel's stadium in Charleston. The MEAC website lists SCSU's average attendance as 13,383, about 5000 per game lower than the NCAA figure. I'm guessing the MEAC number is the right one, but I listed both.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Monty---while the stats (which I deleted) are nice, I'm not sure they're worth a crap since they're not comparative. Take a few years ago, for example...SIU came to town with a fella named Whitlock (I believe) who was supposed to just run all OVER the Griz because he'd run all over every MVC team that year. The Griz shut HIM and SIU down. The next week, however another guy from UMass by the name of Baylark came to town...HE was supposed to run over the Griz also....and he did which tells me that in THAT year, CAA run defenses were better than MVC run defenses. And without common opponents to judge by, the conference stats just don't really mean much.

Just my two cents...

I'm not sure that's the right conclusion. UMass also had a passing game to worry about, SIU didn't. The Griz were free to stack the box against SIU because there wasn't much threat of being torched. They didn't have that luxury against UMass.

[Montucky]

Yea, Nova's resume is pretty significant. That's basically why I don't see W&M getting in, because they won't get past Villanova this weekend. Its a tough task.

I wonder where Appst's attendance was before the 3 consecutive NC's. That's gotta help. Boone must be quite uproarious come Saturdays.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Yea, Nova's resume is pretty significant. That's basically why I don't see W&M getting in, because they won't get past Villanova this weekend. Its a tough task.

William & Mary plays Richmond, not Villanova. I don't think the Tribe will win that one, either.

[Montucky]

Ahhh that's right. Yeah richmond is gonna be tough also.
The Maine UNH game should be a decide'r also.

[happyappy99]

Yea, Nova's resume is pretty significant. That's basically why I don't see W&M getting in, because they won't get past Villanova this weekend. Its a tough task.

I wonder where Appst's attendance was before the 3 consecutive NC's. That's gotta help. Boone must be quite uproarious come Saturdays.

The NC's definitely helped, but the week after we beat Michigan, we had around 30k against tiny Lenoir-Rhyne. So it was really the Michigan game that really started putting the asses in the seats. The good thing is, those people have been continuing to go to the games, and the attendance seems to increase every week. It can be very tough to get to Boone though when the weather is bad. The roads are not very good, but fortunately, many many people brave it.

It also helps that the money being generated from having such a successful team has allowed App to start expanding the stadium. From having a capacity of around 15k (if I remember correctly) when I graduated in'99 to now having seats for 24k+ it makes a big difference.

[Col Hogan]

Ahhh that's right. Yeah richmond is gonna be tough also.
The Maine UNH game should be a decide'r also.

Most definately...and I'll predict Maine comes out the winner with an invite to the playoffs...

[putter]

Monty---while the stats (which I deleted) are nice, I'm not sure they're worth a crap since they're not comparative. Take a few years ago, for example...SIU came to town with a fella named Whitlock (I believe) who was supposed to just run all OVER the Griz because he'd run all over every MVC team that year. The Griz shut HIM and SIU down. The next week, however another guy from UMass by the name of Baylark came to town...HE was supposed to run over the Griz also....and he did which tells me that in THAT year, CAA run defenses were better than MVC run defenses. And without common opponents to judge by, the conference stats just don't really mean much.

Just my two cents...

I'm not sure that's the right conclusion. UMass also had a passing game to worry about, SIU didn't. The Griz were free to stack the box against SIU because there wasn't much threat of being torched. They didn't have that luxury against UMass.

UMass did not have a great passing day against the Griz that game but the swing pass to Baylark worked to perfection almost every time.

[Mvemjsunpx]

I'm not sure that's the right conclusion. UMass also had a passing game to worry about, SIU didn't. The Griz were free to stack the box against SIU because there wasn't much threat of being torched. They didn't have that luxury against UMass.

UMass did not have a great passing day against the Griz that game but the swing pass to Baylark worked to perfection almost every time.

The Griz did a good job at stopping UMass WR Brandon London & at forcing some Liam Coen mistakes, but payed for it by giving up 245 total yards to Baylark (including 76 receiving from those swing passes). Against SIU, Whitlock was really the only thing to worry about, so the gameplan was pretty straightforward.

In other words: it wasn't that UMass had a better running game than SIU, it's just that they had more weapons & a more versatile offense so the Griz couldn't solely focus on the running game like they could with the Salukis.