Montana vs Richmond - for all the marbles

[dbackjon]

Discuss!

[dbackjon]

Personally, I think Montana wins by 10.

[AZGrizFan]

What's the story on Grayson? He was injured in the UNI game...did he come back?

[AshevilleApp]

Two emotional road wins in two weeks catch up to Richmond. Montana in a blowout.

[AZGrizFan]

Two emotional road wins in two weeks catch up to Richmond. Montana in a blowout.

I like the way you think. If the Cole Berquist that played Friday night shows up in Chatty, it'll be a long night for Richmond. He was unCONSCIOUS Friday night....dude played the game of his LIFE at the perfect time...

[AZGrizFan]

On the flip side, Richmond has a LOT of interceptions this year....four different guys with at least four, and one guy with 7!

I'll be doing my stat analysis later this week, but that one jumped out at me...

[Wildcat Ryan]

The Griz are seeing an offense they have seen all year

Griz- 35
Rich- 27

[GrizNation]

well, last week was a very interesting week. We had people thinking JMU would blow out UM, well that didn't happen, and UNI blows a chance to be in a National Championship by allowing Richmond to march down the field in the final minutes and slip away with a win.

This week will be much of the same, but only one of these will happen. Here's my pick for the National Champion.

UM- They have had one of the most outstanding seasons of any Grizzly team thus far. Their young runningback has had a breakout season, now remember he was a receiver for them and got moved to Runningback. UM QB had an amazing game against JMU, and seems to have been improving week by week. If he continues this it won't matter how good the Richmond defense is at picking off the passes, he won't throw it anywhere that they can actually get a hand on it. Key's for the Grizzlies, limit turnovers... Play hardnose defense like they did against JMU and cause fumbles. The richmond team is very good at passing, and the Griz have seen that all season, so there isn't any big difference than what they saw while winning the Big Sky Conference.

Richmond- Good strong passing game, good balance though with run to pass ratio... The team seems to be on a hot streak of beating teams that are (on Paper) better than them. They barely snuck past UNI after crushing Appalachan state. The major thing that i see about both games is the Turnovers. App. S. had 7 turnovers... 5 interceptions. The richmond defense has an outstanding set of secondary guys. They can cause turnovers and if UM QB isn't careful the game can get very ugly very fast. Keys for Richmond, Limit the grizzly offense to short gains on the ground, and limit the big plays through the air. Stay in front of the grizzly receivers, do not let them burn past you cause although you may think you are fast the griz are fast too. They have to contain the UM Runningback, if they can't stop him, the grizzlies will just hand it to their young workhorse and let him go to town. Remember he had 2 touchdowns in a 52 second span against JMU and rushed for 123 yards. They have to protect the ball on offense. If they don't the Griz "D" will punish them and cause fumbles.

My pick to win.... Montana 35 Richmond 24... it will come down to who has the least amount of turnovers. Both teams are good at taking the ball, who's better at protecting it. 2008 National Champions University of Montana Grizzlies!!!

[BlackFalkin]

2008 National Champions University of Montana Grizzlies!!!!!

[Col Hogan]

My head says Montana...but my heart has to be with Richmond...

[putter]

richmond reminded me of Weber. Quality QB (not as good an arm) and a good running back. Weber had the advantage in the TE with Nakamura and, if they don't have Greyson - who compares to Toone will be big. Richmond's D Line seemed a little better then Weber's but DB's were similar. JMU was a big change of pace for the Griz while Richmond is a return to playing a more familiar (schematically) team.

Griz - 38
Spiders - 21

[Wildcat Ryan]

East vs West, it doesnt get any better than this.

[Willie]

Griz - 35
Rich - 21

[AZGrizFan]

OK. Here's my first cut at analyzing the stats to predict who wins this game, and what the game will hinge on:

On Offense:

Both teams score a lot of points---surprise, surprise. Richmond's differential is spread pretty evenly through the 4 quarters (68, 53, 49 & 66 point differentials) , while Montana OWNS the 1st and 3rd quarters (87 & 91 pt differential) but give some back in the 2nd and 4th quarters (48 & 16 point differential). Some of the 4th quarter differential can be explained by Bobby Hauck taking his foot off the gas pedal and playing 2nd & 3rd teamers when they've built up a big lead. He's famous for that.

Both teams have fairly well balanced attacks, with Richmond averaging 185.6 rushing and 183.9 passing, while Montana averages 184.2 rushing and 214.9 passing. Montana's average rushing yardage is somewhat misleading, as the 48 sacks allowed subtract over 300 yards from their total. Richmond, on the other hand, only allowed 25 sacks during the year. Montana did improve in that category towards the end of the season, allowing only 6 sacks total in the past four games (after a 7 game stretch in which they allowed 4.5 sacks per game). This drop in sacks is most likely directly attributable to the shift to a running game with the emergence of Chase Reynolds as an every down back. Berquist threw 152 passes in the first 5 games, for an average of 30 attempts per game. In the past six games he hasn't thrown more than 23 and in the past two hasn't attempted even 20.

Richmond uses the pass to set up the run, especially in the red zone. They've scored 32 TD's rushing, and only 16 by the pass. Montana, on the other hand, is less predictable, equally divided at 32 rush/32 pass TD's. Both score a LOT when in the red zone, with Richmond scoring at a higher percentage (83% to 75%) but at a lower TD clip (61% to 63%) than Montana.

Both teams like to control the clock, with both averaging over 32 minutes TOP. Not surprising considering neither is a passing-dominant team (Montana having shifted since the emergence of Reynolds).

On Defense:

Neither team gives up a lot of points, with Richmond giving up slightly fewer (243/260). Again, BH's tendency to play 2nd 3rd stringers (as evidenced by the 14 points scored by UNC in the 4th quarter) somewhat inflates Montana's number. I'm not sure what Richmond's coach's philosophy is. Richmond has 15 players with at least 20 tackles, while Montana has 18. It appears both have given significant time to 2nd teamers when games are in control.

Richmond appears VERY tough against the run when looking at averages (97 ypg, vs 131 for Montana). The vast majority of Montana's, however are given up between the 20's. Their bend-but-don't-break defense was on full display in Harrisonburg Friday night, giving up 334 yards rushing, but with a forced field goal, a fumble, an interception, and a goal line stand inside the 20. Richmond's last 4 games have gone 153 (UNI), 39 (ASU), 84 (EKU) and 43 (W&M). Their run defense is stout, and Montana has it's work cut out for them there.

Montana holds its opponents to a 43% TD ratio inside the red zone, as compared to Richmond's slightly softer 53%. And overall, opponents score 86% of the time against Richmond when they get into the red zone, as opposed to only 72% of the time against Montana.

Both teams force a lot of turnovers, but Richmond's interception number, 28, is eye-popping. Oh by the way, they've also recovered 12 fumbles! Richmond enjoys a +22 turnover advantage. Similarly, Montana enjoys a +18 turnover advantage, having snagged 19 interceptions along with 17 fumbles, while only tossing 9 interceptions and putting the ball on the turf 9 times. As pointed out in the JMU thread, Montana is a + 22 in the last 6 games, forcing 27 turnovers and only losing the ball 5 times. Richmond, which forced SEVEN turnovers against W&M (including 6 interceptions), has an 18-4 TO advantage in the past 4 games, including 13 interceptions. 11 of those 18 came in two games, however. Montana truly has its work cut out for them taking care of the football.

Bottom Line: These teams are EERILY similar. It IS possible to run on Richmond, as evidenced by UNI’s 146 yards last week. With only 29 sacks, but 96 tackles for a loss, Richmond defenders spend a LOT of time in the opponent’s backfield. Same can be said for Montana. Both teams like to control the clock. Both teams are fairly balanced, and deep. Both teams score a lot of points, and are tough in the red zone. As with last week, this game will come down to turnovers, and who has the short field.

My prediction is that Montana’s experience in the playoffs will prevail. I predict at least 3 Richmond turnovers, with no more than one for the Griz (that one will probably be an interception!). I predict that, much like the JMU game, Richmond will actually outgain Montana and win the TOP battle, but lose the war. JMU will falter at least once in the red zone, and have to settle for a field goal, and once will come away empty. Chase Reynold will outgain Vaughan (who’s a beast, by the way, but no more-so than Trevyn Smith of Weber).

I predict the Griz come out strong, but falter in the second quarter. They will lead at the half, but only by 3-4 points (possibly 13-10 or 14-10). Griz will outscore Richmond in the 3rd quarter, and go into the 4th leading by 11 or 12, 28-17. I think the Griz go into prevent mode and don't score in the 4th quarter, with Richmond closing to the final score of 28-23 (missed 2 point conversion).

[GOKATS]

Spiders by 4

[AZGrizFan]

Spiders by 4

Typical indepth pussycat analysis. Course, you probably thought your bobkitties were gonna ROLL the Griz this year too, huh?

[Cap'n Cat]

Have a hard time believing UNI woulda beat Montana, so there ain't no way in Hell Richmond beats them.


Montana 45
Richmond 20


This is Montana's year, decidedly.

[grizzaholic]

Very good points by all posters, except GOKATS.

I think AZ is a little off on his prediction this week though. I think Montana wins the TOP this week and the TO battle will be closer to 1-1.

[lifesapuntreturn]

It appears the griz are a team of destiny this year. They got a HUGE break when Landers went down in the first half of the JMU game. If he played the entire game, JMU would have won. He didn't and UM won. Championship teams often get a big break (a huge play at a key moment late in a close game, a blown or highly questionable call by an official, an injury to a key player on the other team, etc.) and the griz got one last week.

In watching the Richmond/UNI game, I wondered how either of them got that far in the playoffs. I thought they were both unimpressive and didn't see either one of them giving the griz much of a game. I still think that.

It will be a big upset if Richmond wins this game, imho. I don't think Richmond's offense is capable of scoring more than 10 points and I don't think the Richmond defense can stop Montana the entire game. The only way the griz lose this game is if they have numerous turnovers or have a couple of significant injuries early, things that would even the game out.

I'll say Montana 27 Richmond 10, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's a blowout, something like Montana 38 Richmond 3.

[Ibanez]

After careful review of the stats and this years play, I rule in favor of the Griz. 35-28.

[GrizNation]

It appears the griz are a team of destiny this year. They got a HUGE break when Landers went down in the first half of the JMU game. If he played the entire game, JMU would have won. He didn't and UM won. Championship teams often get a big break (a huge play at a key moment late in a close game, a blown or highly questionable call by an official, an injury to a key player on the other team, etc.) and the griz got one last week.

In watching the Richmond/UNI game, I wondered how either of them got that far in the playoffs. I thought they were both unimpressive and didn't see either one of them giving the griz much of a game. I still think that.

It will be a big upset if Richmond wins this game, imho. I don't think Richmond's offense is capable of scoring more than 10 points and I don't think the Richmond defense can stop Montana the entire game. The only way the griz lose this game is if they have numerous turnovers or have a couple of significant injuries early, things that would even the game out.

I'll say Montana 27 Richmond 10, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's a blowout, something like Montana 38 Richmond 3.

Leave it to a MSU Bobcat to say that the only reason the Griz won the JMU/Griz game was that Landers went out... Please remember who was winning at the point that the "SO CALLED" superman went out. And please remember UM's 3rd quarter offense against any team in the league this year. They have greatly outscored every team they have played in the 3rd quarter. Also remember why JMU had a chance to begin with in the 4th quarter. They Griz up significantly and didn't need to score. They knew JMU was gonna run the ball and thats what they did. JMU couldn't score enough with their offense in the 4th because UM was running the clock, and JMU took too long on offense by running also. I think that the Griz coaching staff had an amazing game and by running it in the 4th made the JMU offense change their approach and have to go to the air. I think that yes, with landers it would have been closer, but i don't think that even with him they would have had enough power to overtake the griz's lead. The Griz flat outplayed JMU in that game, and as i said in my post, the team with the least ammount of turnovers would win. JMU had 4 turnovers, three of which went for touchdowns, 1 of which was an interception by the backup QB, but landers also fumbled it once at a critical time. The Griz just hit them too hard and they weren't used to that so the fumbles were easily caused by the defense. Next time you have something to say you should probably have some statistical backup for it instead of just looking stupid.

[SeattleGriz]

My brief homer analysis.

Montana's offense has been running very well lately. Too many weapons allows the Griz to make Richmond's D work harder than they have all year. They won't look as good as their defensive ranking says.

Montana's defense is going to do what they have been doing all year. Looking for big hits, group tackling and stripping the ball.

I also don't think Richmond is going to be ready for how physical the Griz are on both sides of the ball. Overall, it is this physicality that is going to give the Griz a victory. I agree as well that the Griz are going to jump out to a lead, try to hog the ball and run out the clock.

Montana 35
Richmond 24

[Mvemjsunpx]

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Montana
      
      Running Backs - (push)
      
      Receivers/TEs - Montana
      
      Offensive Line - Montana
      
      
      Defensive Line - Richmond
      
      Linebackers --- Richmond
      
      Secondary ---- Richmond
      
      
      Kicking ------ Richmond
      
      Punting ------ Montana
      
      Return Teams - Montana
      
      Kickoffs ------ Richmond
      
      
      
      
      
      • • Montana 28-16 Richmond

The big punting, return game, & redzone defense advantages for the Griz make the difference.

[Stonewall D]

While Montana has a stong o-line, Richmond has the Stonewall Defense. With 2 pro prospects at each end of the D-line and speed in the D-backfield, Richmond matches up well against Montana.

Richmond also has a pro prospect at RB. Josh Vaughn has 1,700+ yards this year.

Richmond's QB is a true field general, as shown by his clock management at the end of the UNI game.

Richmond has 5 or 6 very good receivers.

Richmond, however, is beat up after its experience in the UNI Dome.

My pick is UR 31 Montana 27.

[Stonewall D]

Concerning Montana State's comments about Montana.

He is correct about his assessment of Landers. Landers' injury cost JMU the game.

But,

If you look at the tape closely, the Montana tackler grabbed Lander's leg and deliberately twisted it, after Landers was down. The replays clearly show it.

It was a cheap thing to do.

After that, JMU's back-up QB was rattled in the 1st half and threw an interception.

However, Montana coaches clearly scouted the JMU return game well. They did an excellent job of pre-game preparation.