Fact wrote:
No way they're better off without Werth.. He's been one of the best position players in the national league this year. He's got incredible range, great baserunning ability, a cannon of an arm, power, plate discipline and he shows up in big situations. The Phillies shouldn't have spent all that money on Ryan Howard, they should have invested and kept Werth for the long term because Howard is currently in the midst of the worst season of his career (even before the injury.)
Also, someone answer this for me, why the hell is domonic brown on the Phillies roster if he isn't getting at bats? I don't even think Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel would do something that foolish.
Two Words - Bobby Abreu. People had the same argument you just used for why the Phils were foolish for getting rid of such a productive player, and then lo and behold, the Phils were better. It's just history repeating itself.
As for Howard, the offense doesn't run without him. When he's banging, the Phils are the best team in the NL. Without him, well, and they drop 3 to the 'Stros. It's an odd year, power numbers are down everywhere. And Werth all of a sudden being an offensive black hole in the 5 spot probably has done something to hurt Howard's numbers as well. Keeping Howard was the safer bet over Werth, who really has only had one really great year in the majors and he's 31.
As for Brown not playing, eh, that pales in comparison to the Mets thinking bringing back Ollie Perez for another year was a good idea, or any number of other countless decisions by those two that have helped the Mets underacheive for the past 4 years. Brown will be in the starting lineup come next Spring and will be just fine. Besides, we'd probably sit Werth to put Brown in and we know how you feel about Werth.
You do know that Jayson Werth's career postseason OPS is 1.044 compared to Ryan Howard's .921, Werth has been worth more wins above replacement than Howard in two of the last three years (including 2008, where he was foolishly platooned with Geoff Jenkins,) Werth is an elite fielding outfielder who can play all three outfield positions and has perhaps the strongest outfield arm in the majors by anyone not named Jeff Francoeur (who doesn't count because he sucks) and Howard is best suited as a DH. The Abreu comparison is just dumb, because you got rid of Aaron Rowand around the same time while picking up Werth and Victorino (Abreu was just a scapegoat for years of organizational ineptitude, as was Pat Burrell until you guys decided to change your minds and make him jesus.) Werth has had arguably as many great seasons as Ryan Howard (one) and a couple more very good ones. Ryan Howard is about as close as you can get to a two outcome hitter and he is already showing signs of regression while Werth is a guy who can hit home runs, singles, doubles, triples, steal bases while taking the most pitches in the major leagues. For the record, I think that Jayson Werth is a smug dickhead, but I would kill for him to be on the Mets.
The fact that Oliver Perez is still on the Mets does nothing to endanger the future of the franchise, unlike Domonic Brown sitting on the major league bench while coming in to pinch hit against specialist relievers when he could be at Lehigh Valley geting 5 plate appearances a game while learning how to hit lefty pitching and playing in the field.
GannonFan wrote:
Two Words - Bobby Abreu. People had the same argument you just used for why the Phils were foolish for getting rid of such a productive player, and then lo and behold, the Phils were better. It's just history repeating itself.
As for Howard, the offense doesn't run without him. When he's banging, the Phils are the best team in the NL. Without him, well, and they drop 3 to the 'Stros. It's an odd year, power numbers are down everywhere. And Werth all of a sudden being an offensive black hole in the 5 spot probably has done something to hurt Howard's numbers as well. Keeping Howard was the safer bet over Werth, who really has only had one really great year in the majors and he's 31.
As for Brown not playing, eh, that pales in comparison to the Mets thinking bringing back Ollie Perez for another year was a good idea, or any number of other countless decisions by those two that have helped the Mets underacheive for the past 4 years. Brown will be in the starting lineup come next Spring and will be just fine. Besides, we'd probably sit Werth to put Brown in and we know how you feel about Werth.
You do know that Jayson Werth's career postseason OPS is 1.044 compared to Ryan Howard's .921, Werth has been worth more wins above replacement than Howard in two of the last three years (including 2008, where he was foolishly platooned with Geoff Jenkins,) Werth is an elite fielding outfielder who can play all three outfield positions and has perhaps the strongest outfield arm in the majors by anyone not named Jeff Francoeur (who doesn't count because he sucks) and Howard is best suited as a DH. The Abreu comparison is just dumb, because you got rid of Aaron Rowand around the same time while picking up Werth and Victorino (Abreu was just a scapegoat for years of organizational ineptitude, as was Pat Burrell until you guys decided to change your minds and make him jesus.) Werth has had arguably as many great seasons as Ryan Howard (one) and a couple more very good ones. Ryan Howard is about as close as you can get to a two outcome hitter and he is already showing signs of regression while Werth is a guy who can hit home runs, singles, doubles, triples, steal bases while taking the most pitches in the major leagues. For the record, I think that Jayson Werth is a smug dickhead, but I would kill for him to be on the Mets.
The fact that Oliver Perez is still on the Mets does nothing to endanger the future of the franchise, unlike Domonic Brown sitting on the major league bench while coming in to pinch hit against specialist relievers when he could be at Lehigh Valley geting 5 plate appearances a game while learning how to hit lefty pitching and playing in the field.
When did that happen? Burrell was one of the lucky Philly athletes that consistently fell short of expectations but never felt the full wrath of the fans, but nobody ever made him Jesus. There were many that wanted him to stay for the 2009 season, but even they shut up after Ibanez got off to a great start.
I wouldn't get too worked up about a jealous Mutts fan's assessment of the Phils.
Anyway, how about those Phils getting it done today, taking the series from the NL leading Padres? The offense didn't do a whole heckuva lot, but it was enough.
Hopefully Cole can get some run support tomorrow (for a change) and the Phils can pull out the brooms.
93henfan wrote:I wouldn't get too worked up about a jealous Mutts fan's assessment of the Phils.
Anyway, how about those Phils getting it done today, taking the series from the NL leading Padres? The offense didn't do a whole heckuva lot, but it was enough.
Hopefully Cole can get some run support tomorrow (for a change) and the Phils can pull out the brooms.
Ironic. It wasn't Phillie fans that made Pat Burrell into Jesus, it was Billy Wagner and the Mets.
After throwing 50 pitches in the first two innings, Hamels settles nicely and goes eight scoreless with Madson preserving the shutout. Sweeney does what Howard hasn't been lately, launching a laser two-run shot to left.
With this kind of pitching, if this team's bats wake up, it could get ugly for the rest of the league in September.
93henfan wrote:I wouldn't get too worked up about a jealous Mutts fan's assessment of the Phils.
Anyway, how about those Phils getting it done today, taking the series from the NL leading Padres? The offense didn't do a whole heckuva lot, but it was enough.
Hopefully Cole can get some run support tomorrow (for a change) and the Phils can pull out the brooms.
I felt my assessment was pretty balanced and unemotional. The fact is, you guys should be much more upset that your best player other than Chase Utley (who carried you while everyone was hurt) is almost certainly leaving to another team (most likely a team in new york or boston.)
93henfan wrote:I wouldn't get too worked up about a jealous Mutts fan's assessment of the Phils.
Anyway, how about those Phils getting it done today, taking the series from the NL leading Padres? The offense didn't do a whole heckuva lot, but it was enough.
Hopefully Cole can get some run support tomorrow (for a change) and the Phils can pull out the brooms.
I felt my assessment was pretty balanced and unemotional. The fact is, you guys should be much more upset that your best player other than Chase Utley (who carried you while everyone was hurt) is almost certainly leaving to another team (most likely a team in new york or boston.)
I'm sorry, you can play sabrematician(sp) all you want. If you think Werth is the Phils 2nd best position player, you're just not paying attention (like Werth on the basepaths actually).
Oh and if you want names: you already said Utley but any Phillies fan will tell you that Polanco & Ruiz have had better years. Ruiz may be the team MVP.
93henfan wrote:I wouldn't get too worked up about a jealous Mutts fan's assessment of the Phils.
Anyway, how about those Phils getting it done today, taking the series from the NL leading Padres? The offense didn't do a whole heckuva lot, but it was enough.
Hopefully Cole can get some run support tomorrow (for a change) and the Phils can pull out the brooms.
I felt my assessment was pretty balanced and unemotional. The fact is, you guys should be much more upset that your best player other than Chase Utley (who carried you while everyone was hurt) is almost certainly leaving to another team (most likely a team in new york or boston.)
You can be balanced and unemotional all you want, but that doesn't mean that you aren't flat out wrong. Just because you can't see the Abreu/Werth connection doesn't mean it's not valid - heck, Yankees fans didn't know what Philly fans were talking about until they got Abreu, and then they found out pretty quick. You can have great stats, but if those stats don't get generated when your team needs them, then they are just numbers. Werth had a nice Abreu-type HR yesterday too - Phils up 4-0 in the 9th and he finally hits another HR. Didn't really help the Phils, but it's a stat.
And Werth's had just as many good years as Howard (and you say they've both had one year)? Come on, Howard's got 4 years of 45+ HR and 135+ RBI's - Werth's never going to touch those numbers.
If I had a choice I'd rather have Werth back - but I'd rather not break the bank or jettison another player (like Howard) to keep him here. Howard's integral to what the Phils have done and what they are doing - you take him out and the heart of the team is gone. Obviously, you can't see that, but you are a bit removed from the situation so I can't blame you for missing that.
What's the problem with using statistics/metrics as an unbiased observer? The fact is that Placido Polanco has been hurt this and he's grading out as the fourth (or fifth) best third baseman in his own division (despite the fact that chipper has been hurt and had a down season) Ruiz has been better than league average at catcher, but at this point Werth is worth over a win and a half over Ruiz and since Werth has been healthy the entire season and Ruiz hasn't, you can't possibly say that Ruiz has been more valuable/a better player. I've watched the vast majority of Phillies games this year on tv (and by vast i mean i've missed only a handful,) so I'm not talking out of my ass and only looking at stats. The fact is that Werth is having a great season despite the fact that he's hitting well below his career numbers against lefty pitching (two home runs compared to 16 against RHP) when he normally destroys lefties and Ruiz is having an above average season with Polanco sitting at around the same place.
It really baffles me how philly fans completely shoot down empirical data and make arguments based almost solely on emotion..
Fact wrote:What's the problem with using statistics/metrics as an unbiased observer? The fact is that Placido Polanco has been hurt this and he's grading out as the fourth (or fifth) best third baseman in his own division (despite the fact that chipper has been hurt and had a down season) Ruiz has been better than league average at catcher, but at this point Werth is worth over a win and a half over Ruiz and since Werth has been healthy the entire season and Ruiz hasn't, you can't possibly say that Ruiz has been more valuable/a better player. I've watched the vast majority of Phillies games this year on tv (and by vast i mean i've missed only a handful,) so I'm not talking out of my ass and only looking at stats. The fact is that Werth is having a great season despite the fact that he's hitting well below his career numbers against lefty pitching (two home runs compared to 16 against RHP) when he normally destroys lefties and Ruiz is having an above average season with Polanco sitting at around the same place.
It really baffles me how philly fans completely shoot down empirical data and make arguments based almost solely on emotion..
Kind of like how it baffles us that you use no emotion is assessing a player and merely rely solely on stats (while ignoring his stats that you don't like). The hitting against lefty pitchers is huge, considering the main reason for him being in the lineup where he is is to hit left handed pitching. Only 2 HR's all year against lefties is a huge red flag. And the same goes with his sub .100 batting average since May with two outs and runners in scoring position. He'll get his numbers, but not enough and not at the right times to make you want to rely on him. And this year, especially, he's been compiling a lot of stats without equating them to wins. How you can watch as much as you say you watch and not see that is probably the most amazing thing in this.
93henfan wrote:Jayson Werth just went 0'fer the series against San Diego, then bagged a solo shot in the ninth inning when it was 4-0.
That's what GF is talking about when he makes the Abreu comparisons. The numbers are there, but rarely when it means much.
Conversely, it seems like Ruiz has at least a couple of really clutch hits a week.
How many times have you seen a huge CHOOCH or RAUL in these threads, versus a WERTH?
How about his world series OPS over 1.000? This is all a bunch of garbage from people who are resigned to losing a very good player so you guys are making justifications as to how things will be ok (understandable to a degree,) but the statistics are firmly in Werth's favor. For the two base running mistakes he's made this week you can point out several other instances where he stretched a single into a double, double into a triple, or that time where he stole 2nd, 3rd and then Home IN THE SAME INNING!
The fact that Werth is hitting poorly with runners in scoring position is a fluky thing that generally corrects itself (they're fairly similar to his career numbers in a larger sample size.) We could talk about how Ryan Howard has had such an inflated BABIP this year which is driving up his batting average (it's finally starting to level out) or the fact that Ibanez has been below replacement level this season? Fact is, if you lose a five win player and don't adequately replace him, The Phillies will be staring up at the Braves just like the Mets have been staring up at the Phillies.
89Hen wrote:
It just seem like it's been 2.5 for a few weeks. When was the last time the Phils won a game on the same day the Braves lost a game?
August 14th. Your point is valid though. They've really been matching each other, with wins for the most part. The Phils have been the hottest team in baseball for about a month and the Braves are not far behind.
Here are the two teams' records from 22 July - 22 August:
Phils 22-7 (.759)
Braves 18-12 (.600)
The Braves seem to have had an "oh shit, here come the Phils" moment around August 4th, as the teams records from 4 - 22 August are:
93henfan wrote:Jayson Werth just went 0'fer the series against San Diego, then bagged a solo shot in the ninth inning when it was 4-0.
That's what GF is talking about when he makes the Abreu comparisons. The numbers are there, but rarely when it means much.
Conversely, it seems like Ruiz has at least a couple of really clutch hits a week.
How many times have you seen a huge CHOOCH or RAUL in these threads, versus a WERTH?
How about his world series OPS over 1.000? This is all a bunch of garbage from people who are resigned to losing a very good player so you guys are making justifications as to how things will be ok (understandable to a degree,) but the statistics are firmly in Werth's favor. For the two base running mistakes he's made this week you can point out several other instances where he stretched a single into a double, double into a triple, or that time where he stole 2nd, 3rd and then Home IN THE SAME INNING!
The fact that Werth is hitting poorly with runners in scoring position is a fluky thing that generally corrects itself (they're fairly similar to his career numbers in a larger sample size.) We could talk about how Ryan Howard has had such an inflated BABIP this year which is driving up his batting average (it's finally starting to level out) or the fact that Ibanez has been below replacement level this season? Fact is, if you lose a five win player and don't adequately replace him, The Phillies will be staring up at the Braves just like the Mets have been staring up at the Phillies.
For a guy who's gaga about stats, you sure seem fixated on an OPS number that is all from an 11 game sample. Heck, I could point to his OPS during the NLCS with the Dodgers in '08 and say aha, how about that 0.435 OPS? But that's a small sample size too.
And besides, we've already replaced him - Dominic Brown is ready and raring to go. You must be on board with that considering you think it's perhaps one of the greatest managerial mistakes of the last 5 years not to be playing him more. And plus, we picked up Oswalt in the meantime too, and have him for next year. That probably counts for a win or two, don't you think? I'm not worried about us joining the Mets looking up at anybody anytime soon. It'll be different maybe by 2012, but in the meantime, the Phils will be just fine playing deep into October, with or without Jayson Werth.
Did I ever disagree with you? I think I was saying you were dead right since Aug 4th. The Phils had played significantly better from July 22nd through Aug 3rd.
At least the Phils have clawed back a half game since then and have Halladay going tonight. Hopefully the sorry-assed Mets (who do still have a mathematical chance) will have some pride and play the Braves tough tonight and allow the Phils to move within a game.
Did I ever disagree with you? I think I was saying you were dead right since Aug 4th. The Phils had played significantly better from July 22nd through Aug 3rd.
At least the Phils have clawed back a half game since then and have Halladay going tonight. Hopefully the sorry-assed Mets (who do still have a mathematical chance) will have some pride and play the Braves tough tonight and allow the Phils to move within a game.
Not aimed at you. Was just patting myself on the back.
It's amazing that as soon as I see the Phils or Braves score on the snail in the am, I immediately know what the other team did that day.
Fact wrote:What's the problem with using statistics/metrics as an unbiased observer? The fact is that Placido Polanco has been hurt this and he's grading out as the fourth (or fifth) best third baseman in his own division (despite the fact that chipper has been hurt and had a down season) Ruiz has been better than league average at catcher, but at this point Werth is worth over a win and a half over Ruiz and since Werth has been healthy the entire season and Ruiz hasn't, you can't possibly say that Ruiz has been more valuable/a better player. I've watched the vast majority of Phillies games this year on tv (and by vast i mean i've missed only a handful,) so I'm not talking out of my ass and only looking at stats. The fact is that Werth is having a great season despite the fact that he's hitting well below his career numbers against lefty pitching (two home runs compared to 16 against RHP) when he normally destroys lefties and Ruiz is having an above average season with Polanco sitting at around the same place.
It really baffles me how philly fans completely shoot down empirical data and make arguments based almost solely on emotion..
As well, it equally baffles me, that with every sentence you distance yourself further & further from reality. Polanco leading the NL in BA as late as a week ago & he's the worst or second-worst 3B in the NL East?
Fact wrote:What's the problem with using statistics/metrics as an unbiased observer? The fact is that Placido Polanco has been hurt this and he's grading out as the fourth (or fifth) best third baseman in his own division (despite the fact that chipper has been hurt and had a down season) Ruiz has been better than league average at catcher, but at this point Werth is worth over a win and a half over Ruiz and since Werth has been healthy the entire season and Ruiz hasn't, you can't possibly say that Ruiz has been more valuable/a better player. I've watched the vast majority of Phillies games this year on tv (and by vast i mean i've missed only a handful,) so I'm not talking out of my ass and only looking at stats. The fact is that Werth is having a great season despite the fact that he's hitting well below his career numbers against lefty pitching (two home runs compared to 16 against RHP) when he normally destroys lefties and Ruiz is having an above average season with Polanco sitting at around the same place.
It really baffles me how philly fans completely shoot down empirical data and make arguments based almost solely on emotion..
As well, it equally baffles me, that with every sentence you distance yourself further & further from reality. Polanco leading the NL in BA as late as a week ago & he's the worst or second-worst 3B in the NL East?
I'm pretty sure that he is posting nonsense just to get a reaction from Phillies fans.
Watching some of the Mets-Braves game, man remember when Jose Reyes was going to be a really good SS? The Mets OF is horrendous as well, looks like it'll be Braves & Phillies for a long time.
Heyward just clubbed a Misch oggering. Pat Misch? why?
None of the playoff contenders seem to be on fire in the NL heading into Sept. It could be an interesting post season. Hope it doesn't bode poorly for the WS.
Ivytalk wrote:To paraphrase Harry Doyle: "One hit? That's all we got? One GD hit?"
And that fat slug Barajas continues to haunt the Phillies. He seems to hit a homer every time he faces us.
He's like Wes Helms - both of those guys came to Philly after being somewhat decent where they were before, they then proceed to suck royally for the Phils, and then when they get released they go somewhere else and just kill the Phillies. Go figure.
Fact wrote:What's the problem with using statistics/metrics as an unbiased observer? The fact is that Placido Polanco has been hurt this and he's grading out as the fourth (or fifth) best third baseman in his own division (despite the fact that chipper has been hurt and had a down season) Ruiz has been better than league average at catcher, but at this point Werth is worth over a win and a half over Ruiz and since Werth has been healthy the entire season and Ruiz hasn't, you can't possibly say that Ruiz has been more valuable/a better player. I've watched the vast majority of Phillies games this year on tv (and by vast i mean i've missed only a handful,) so I'm not talking out of my ass and only looking at stats. The fact is that Werth is having a great season despite the fact that he's hitting well below his career numbers against lefty pitching (two home runs compared to 16 against RHP) when he normally destroys lefties and Ruiz is having an above average season with Polanco sitting at around the same place.
It really baffles me how philly fans completely shoot down empirical data and make arguments based almost solely on emotion..
As well, it equally baffles me, that with every sentence you distance yourself further & further from reality. Polanco leading the NL in BA as late as a week ago & he's the worst or second-worst 3B in the NL East?
The Numbers back it up.. WAR among others. You can hit .300 and still be a shitty player (not saying Polanco is bad, he just doesn't hit for the power that a corner infielder should in that park.) Look at Juan Pierre: people love him because he's fast and hits around .300 every year but the fact is that he sucks. the same went for Luis Castillo last season who hit .300 but was the worst fielding second baseman in the league and couldn't hit anything other than singles. Just because Polanco hits above .300 doesn't mean that he's having a better season than Wright, ZIMMERMAN, Chipper or Cantu until he was traded.
When you look at the other guys in the division, Polanco is (at best) the third best player manning the hot corner in the NL East this season.
