#5 Delaware @ #3 JMU Game Thread

[BDKJMU]

Does the winner of this game basically punch their playoff ticket?

UD would be 5-0 with Maine, URI, @ W&M, Towson, @ UMass, Villanova left to play.

JMU would be 4-0 with @ Towson, UNH, @ Villanova, UMass, @ Richmond, W&M, @ Maine

Obviously UD would have the edge already having one more win (especially since it's Richmond) and gets URI instead of UNH. They also have the DII win in there, but I really don't think an 8-3 UD (or JMU) gets left out. It's looking like the MEAC, OVC, PL, Big South and NEC are all one bid conferences. Getting to 8 seems close to a lock for either team if they win this week.

But you're neglecting the fact that 8 wins for UD is only 7 Div I, and 8 wins for JMU is 8 Div I.

A team (out of be it any of the power conferences CAA, So Con, MVFC, Big Sky etc) that is 7-3 vs I-AA + a Div II win is no different than a team that is 7-3 vs I-AA + a I-A loss.

7 Div I wins out of the CAA better than 50/50 with 10 at large bids, but certainly not a lock. 8 Div I wins is a lock.

A 7 Div I win out of the CAA would certainly get in over any 7 Div I win out of any other conference, and even over any 8 Div I win outside of the Big 4 power conferences. So I would be willing $ on a 7 Div I win UD (8-3) or a 7 Div I win JMU (7-4 getting) in as say a 4th CAA team with one of the last few at large bids. I would also be willing to bet a 7 Div I win team won't get a top 12 bye.

[State Line Liquors]

They also have the DII win in there, but I really don't think an 8-3 UD (or JMU) gets left out.

But you're neglecting the fact that 8 wins for UD is only 7 Div I, and 8 wins for JMU is 8 Div I.

A team (out of be it any of the power conferences CAA, So Con, MVFC, Big Sky etc) that is 7-3 vs I-AA + a Div II win is no different than a team that is 7-3 vs I-AA + a I-A loss.

7 Div I wins out of the CAA better than 50/50 with 10 at large bids, but certainly not a lock. 8 Div I wins is a lock.

A 7 Div I win out of the CAA would certainly get in over any 7 Div I win out of any other conference, and even over any 8 Div I win outside of the Big 4 power conferences. So I would be willing $ on a 7 Div I win UD (8-3) or a 7 Div I win JMU (7-4 getting) in as say a 4th CAA team with one of the last few at large bids. I would also be willing to bet a 7 Div I win team won't get a top 12 bye.

BDK, when you highlight a sentence where the author identifies an issue, you can't turn around and say he then 'neglected' it. 89 can obviously speak for himself, but try to use the noggin here.

[GannonFan]

Does the winner of this game basically punch their playoff ticket?

UD would be 5-0 with Maine, URI, @ W&M, Towson, @ UMass, Villanova left to play.

JMU would be 4-0 with @ Towson, UNH, @ Villanova, UMass, @ Richmond, W&M, @ Maine

Obviously UD would have the edge already having one more win (especially since it's Richmond) and gets URI instead of UNH. They also have the DII win in there, but I really don't think an 8-3 UD (or JMU) gets left out. It's looking like the MEAC, OVC, PL, Big South and NEC are all one bid conferences. Getting to 8 seems close to a lock for either team if they win this week.

But you're neglecting the fact that 8 wins for UD is only 7 Div I, and 8 wins for JMU is 8 Div I.


7 Div I wins out of the CAA better than 50/50 with 10 at large bids, but certainly not a lock. 8 Div I wins is a lock.

Dude, a UD team with 8 wins (7 DI wins) is an absolute, mortal, sell the kids lock to make the playoffs. Heck, it was a lock back when the playoffs were 16 teams, with them being 20 teams large now it's even more of a lock. BHBK is right, a win this weekend (5th for UD) with home games against Maine, URI, and Towson (considered all wins) gets the Hens to 8 and they are in the playoffs - guaranteed. Of course, I'm sure they and the fans would like to do more than 8 wins, especially if we win this weekend. But 8 wins (7 DI wins) for Delaware is a playoff lock - still a lot of $$$ in Newark for that not to happen.

[89Hen]

BDK, when you highlight a sentence where the author identifies an issue, you can't turn around and say he then 'neglected' it. 89 can obviously speak for himself, but try to use the noggin here.

Correct and thanks. I obviously didn't neglect it. However BDK did neglect to see why I say they're a mortal lock at 8-3 this year... there are so many 1 bid conferences. Cripes, last year with only 8 at-larges we had a 7-4 CAA team get in. I guarantee that UD at 7-3 makes it in over any 7-4 for an at-large.

[jd of de]

A 3 loss UD team would assume the losses are close and came from a pool of JMU, W&M, UMass & Nova. Protect the home turf until Nova and win 1 of 4 of the powerhouse games and the Hens are in at 7-3 (8-3 overall). I expect better, but they are a easy pick if the losses are of the JMU, W&M, UMass, Nova quality.

[blukeys]

One of the interesting items in all of these scenarios is the irony that with 20 playoff teams this gives the CAA additional opportunities for More CAA teams in the playoffs (something else the CAA haters can go ballistic over.)

However the more playoff eligible teams the CAA has available the more likely teams like UNH, Maine, and W&M have made some noise by knocking off the four teams in the so called top tier. (JMU, Nova, UD, Umass)

As of today one could project scenarios where either JMU, Nova, UD, or Umass have a shot at a top 5 seed and one could argue the CAA gets 2 seeded teams. However if the old CAA parity situation arises one can also see a lineup of
JMU, Nova, UD, Umass, W&M, Maine, and maybe UR with playoff credentials. This last scenario would come at the expense of the current top 4 making them less likely to be seeded due to more losses.

It will certainly make things interesting. One can create scenarios where 7 CAA teams have records of 8-3 or better. Of course if 7 made the playoffs. The heads of many on this board would explode.

[State Line Liquors]

One of the interesting items in all of these scenarios is the irony that with 20 playoff teams this gives the CAA additional opportunities for More CAA teams in the playoffs (something else the CAA haters can go ballistic over.)

However the more playoff eligible teams the CAA has available the more likely teams like UNH, Maine, and W&M have made some noise by knocking off the four teams in the so called top tier. (JMU, Nova, UD, Umass)

As of today one could project scenarios where either JMU, Nova, UD, or Umass have a shot at a top 5 seed and one could argue the CAA gets 2 seeded teams. However if the old CAA parity situation arises one can also see a lineup of
JMU, Nova, UD, Umass, W&M, Maine, and maybe UR with playoff credentials. This last scenario would come at the expense of the current top 4 making them less likely to be seeded due to more losses.

It will certainly make things interesting. One can create scenarios where 7 CAA teams have records of 8-3 or better. Of course if 7 made the playoffs. The heads of many on this board would explode.

5 or possibly 6 CAA teams in the expanded playoffs would even be earth shattering to some of the JMU homers on their CAAzone board, that have already written off Richmond & UNH as below average teams, and are convinced that a W&M loss to Nova this weekend puts them on the precipice of post season extinction.

[mcveyrl]

One of the interesting items in all of these scenarios is the irony that with 20 playoff teams this gives the CAA additional opportunities for More CAA teams in the playoffs (something else the CAA haters can go ballistic over.)

However the more playoff eligible teams the CAA has available the more likely teams like UNH, Maine, and W&M have made some noise by knocking off the four teams in the so called top tier. (JMU, Nova, UD, Umass)

As of today one could project scenarios where either JMU, Nova, UD, or Umass have a shot at a top 5 seed and one could argue the CAA gets 2 seeded teams. However if the old CAA parity situation arises one can also see a lineup of
JMU, Nova, UD, Umass, W&M, Maine, and maybe UR with playoff credentials. This last scenario would come at the expense of the current top 4 making them less likely to be seeded due to more losses.

It will certainly make things interesting. One can create scenarios where 7 CAA teams have records of 8-3 or better. Of course if 7 made the playoffs. The heads of many on this board would explode.

5 or possibly 6 CAA teams in the expanded playoffs would even be earth shattering to some of the JMU homers on their CAAzone board, that have already written off Richmond & UNH as below average teams, and are convinced that a W&M loss to Nova this weekend puts them on the precipice of post season extinction.

I don't go to the CAAzone, so it's obviously not me, but I definitely don't discount the other teams. I DO think a loss puts W&M on the brink. They'll be 3-2 with games against JMU, UD and UNC left. I think they'll at least lose 2 out of those 3, giving them 4 losses. Obviously, if they lose all 3, they're done, but even if they only lose 2, I will consider them to be on the brink with little margin for error (and they still have to go to UNH and play UR). So, I would agree that a loss puts them in a really, really tough spot as far as the playoffs go.

[93henfan]

Bump

Game Notes links, odds, and notes added to original post.

It appears that there has been some decent action for Delaware on the offshore sites as the line opened at JMU -9, went to JMU -10 shortly thereafter (Tuesday or so), and has now made a wild swing down to JMU -5. Hopefully our betting types got in early.

[mcveyrl]

Bump

Game Notes links, odds, and notes added to original post.

It appears that there has been some decent action for Delaware on the offshore sites as the line opened at JMU -9, went to JMU -10 shortly thereafter (Tuesday or so), and has now made a wild swing down to JMU -5.

I guess most people caught on quick...

[89Hen]

As of today one could project scenarios where either JMU, Nova, UD, or Umass have a shot at a top 5 seed and one could argue the CAA gets 2 seeded teams.

Easy one is Hens and Nova facing each other at 10-0.

[93henfan]

As of today one could project scenarios where either JMU, Nova, UD, or Umass have a shot at a top 5 seed and one could argue the CAA gets 2 seeded teams.

Easy one is Hens and Nova facing each other at 10-0.

You saw the Nova-Temple result, no?

[89Hen]

Easy one is Hens and Nova facing each other at 10-0.

You saw the Nova-Temple result, no?

Fine... 9-0 vs I-AA's.

[93henfan]

5dimes' line is now down to 3 1/2 for JMU. Looks like everyone was playing Delaware. I'm not sure I've ever seen a line drop from 10 to 3 1/2 in four days.

[93henfan]

Free JMU feed:

http://www.channelsurfing.net/watch-nca ... s.php?w=12

[93henfan]

Hens defer. Dukes to receive.

[AZGrizFan]

How long until Keeler is plucked away by a Big East team?

[93henfan]

Three and out for JMU. Hens fair catch at own 33.

[93henfan]

Hens gaining yards in chunks, over midfield.

Devlin injured on a fairly cheap bodyslam.

[93henfan]

Big momentum shift and Hens to punt.

[93henfan]

DUKES MUFF THE PUNT!!!

[93henfan]

1st and goal Delaware.

[93henfan]

Hens fumble. JMU ball.

Sloppy, sloppy.

[AZGrizFan]

WTF? Is that kick returner hearing footsteps?

[93henfan]

And now JMU rolling the other way, down to Hens 31.