Sagarin FCS Week 5 Top 30

[93henfan]

1 Delaware AA = 74.20 5 0 56.25( 150) 0 0 | 0 0 | 77.49 35 | 70.96 68
2 James Madison AA = 71.38 3 1 60.90( 120) 0 0 | 1 0 | 72.89 55 | 69.47 74
3 Villanova AA = 68.42 3 2 58.05( 138) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.24 89 | 71.43 63
4 William & Mary AA = 67.77 4 1 56.75( 144) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.35 76 | 66.71 84
5 Massachusetts AA = 67.62 4 1 55.48( 157) 0 0 | 0 1 | 69.68 69 | 65.19 87
6 Appalachian State AA = 66.83 4 0 48.60( 188) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.60 71 | 63.79 91
7 Jacksonville State AA = 62.87 5 0 46.27( 201) 0 0 | 0 0 | 76.17 38 | 51.66 152
8 Georgia Southern AA = 62.05 3 1 49.71( 183) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.59 102 | 62.00 100
9 Richmond AA = 61.98 2 2 60.79( 121) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.37 93 | 60.12 116
10 Montana AA = 61.70 3 2 56.62( 148) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.01 110 | 62.92 95
11 Montana State AA = 61.56 4 1 54.41( 165) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.80 105 | 61.81 101
12 Stephen F. Austin AA = 61.23 3 1 53.88( 168) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.77 99 | 59.21 122
13 Eastern Washington AA = 61.12 3 2 65.40( 85) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.99 96 | 58.79 123
14 Western Illinois AA = 60.39 4 1 45.49( 205) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.27 119 | 61.01 107
15 Cal Poly-SLO AA = 60.08 3 2 61.50( 117) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.30 108 | 59.35 120
16 SC State AA = 59.88 3 1 45.84( 203) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.92 123 | 60.33 114
17 Northern Arizona AA = 59.82 3 1 55.07( 162) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.33 117 | 59.81 118
18 Northern Iowa AA = 59.62 2 2 59.20( 132) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.45 106 | 58.28 125
19 North Dakota State AA = 59.35 3 2 55.22( 159) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.96 122 | 59.23 121
20 Furman AA = 59.00 2 2 56.73( 145) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.62 129 | 59.88 117
21 New Hampshire AA = 58.69 2 3 53.60( 173) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.11 139 | 61.79 102
22 Harvard AA = 58.63 2 1 46.96( 196) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.35 137 | 61.42 104
23 Wofford AA = 58.59 3 1 54.68( 164) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.29 118 | 57.38 128
24 Texas State AA = 57.60 3 1 59.21( 131) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.72 112 | 54.96 138
25 Elon AA = 55.71 2 3 60.67( 122) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.78 140 | 56.14 131
26 Youngstown State AA = 55.62 3 2 50.01( 182) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.16 138 | 55.57 133
27 Portland State AA = 55.23 2 2 65.43( 84) 0 1 | 0 1 | 58.89 124 | 50.91 155
28 Central Arkansas AA = 54.98 3 1 48.57( 189) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.52 136 | 53.93 141
29 Pennsylvania AA = 54.97 2 1 47.61( 193) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.22 134 | 53.19 148
30 Liberty AA = 54.94 3 2 47.26( 194) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.97 143 | 55.40 135

TEAM RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR

[BDKJMU]

Top 5 CAA. Looks right to me.

[JALMOND]

I refuse to take a poll seriously that has us in the top 30 at this point. Right now, we are not a top 30 team.

[93henfan]

I refuse to take a poll seriously that has us in the top 30 at this point. Right now, we are not a top 30 team.

Sagarin is not a poll, but a computer ranking. This year's schedule is still not currently statistically well connected, so preseason ranking still has some weight. By the time the games are all connected (likely by next week based on recent seasons) there is no more human input considered whatsoever. Sagarin is often criticized, particularly early, but it's as objective a system as can be once connected.

[CatMom]

Top 5 CAA. Looks right to me.

Oh yeah, A 3-2 Villanova is better than a 4-0 App or a 5-0 Jax St....why? Because they're a CAA team? That's a crock of shit
And tiresome.

[JALMOND]

I refuse to take a poll seriously that has us in the top 30 at this point. Right now, we are not a top 30 team.

Sagarin is not a poll, but a computer ranking. This year's schedule is still not currently statistically well connected, so preseason ranking still has some weight. By the time the games are all connected (likely by next week based on recent seasons) there is no more human input considered whatsoever. Sagarin is often criticized, particularly early, but it's as objective a system as can be once connected.

OK. Therefore, I refuse to take seriously anything that has us in the top 30. We have not done anything to merit such consideration.

DOES NOT COMPUTE (beep)...DOES NOT COMPUTE (beep)...DOES NOT COMPUTE (beep)...DOES NO.................

[KAUMASS]

Top 5 CAA. Looks right to me.

Oh yeah, A 3-2 Villanova is better than a 4-0 App or a 5-0 Jax St....why? Because they're a CAA team? That's a crock of ****
And tiresome.

It's just a predictor, CM. It has flaws, same as the GPI for FCS wich will be out tomorrow. William and Mary is ahead of UMass, who UMass beat earlier in the season. Assuming Jax St, App St, SFA all make the playoffs, it will be settled on the field come playoff time against whatever CAA teams make it. I don't care what the rankings are, both teams have to put their uniform pants on one leg at a time prior to the game. Doesn't matter what conference they are from. We(UMass) played Stony Brook this year at their place and they gave us more than we wanted. If they win the AQ for the Big South this year, and if UMass makes the playoffs, I wouldn't want to play them again. SB is probably ranked 150th in Sagarin this week.

Some posters can flaunt and tout the CAA, you get a few in every crowd. People are proud of their conference affialation and sometimes don't realize their going overboard, c'est la vie. It's like a parent bragging about their kid's accomplishments. Good news is there are 6 weeks of football left plus the playoffs..

[youngterrier]

laughable at best...polls pretty much mean nothing until the last week of the season IMO

[PenthouseClosedEnd]

This is not a poll. It is a computer rating based on results that have happened.

[siuham]

This is not a poll. It is a computer rating based on results that have happened.

How many fucking times does this have to be said before people get it? Weekly basis this gets said and people still don't get it.

[ToTheLeft]

This poll sucks.

[93henfan]

This poll sucks.

[BDKJMU]

Top 5 CAA. Looks right to me.

Oh yeah, A 3-2 Villanova is better than a 4-0 App or a 5-0 Jax St....why? Because they're a CAA team? That's a crock of ****
And tiresome.

Hook...Line...Sinker....

[youngterrier]

This is not a poll. It is a computer rating based on results that have happened.

it's still a bad poll

[Skjellyfetti]

Assuming Jax St, App St, SFA all make the playoffs, it will be settled on the field come playoff time against whatever CAA teams make it.

No. It won't be settled on the field. Last year the computers ranked Richmond above Appalachian after App beat them on their home field in the playoffs.

Fuck computers.

[CatMom]

Oh yeah, A 3-2 Villanova is better than a 4-0 App or a 5-0 Jax St....why? Because they're a CAA team? That's a crock of ****
And tiresome.

Hook...Line...Sinker....

Hey, somebody has to complete the circle

[siuham]

This poll sucks.

[89Hen]

I refuse to take a poll seriously that has us in the top 30 at this point. Right now, we are not a top 30 team.

That's OK, neither is New Hampshire.

[89Hen]

Sagarin is not a poll, but a computer ranking. This year's schedule is still not currently statistically well connected, so preseason ranking still has some weight. By the time the games are all connected (likely by next week based on recent seasons) there is no more human input considered whatsoever. Sagarin is often criticized, particularly early, but it's as objective a system as can be once connected.

93, if it's shit now, what magically happens at game 11 to make it not shit?

[93henfan]

Sagarin is not a poll, but a computer ranking. This year's schedule is still not currently statistically well connected, so preseason ranking still has some weight. By the time the games are all connected (likely by next week based on recent seasons) there is no more human input considered whatsoever. Sagarin is often criticized, particularly early, but it's as objective a system as can be once connected.

93, if it's shit now, what magically happens at game 11 to make it not shit?

I know you don't like Sagarin. I've read your posts about it for a few years. The only thing that "changes" at all about Sagarin is that sometime during the season when all games become statistically connected (usually weeks 5-7 or so), the preseason rankings no longer hold any weight and the output becomes completely objective. The only real debate at that point is the program itself. Feel free to punch the computer that runs it.

Like anything else, I use Sagarin as one tool among many in making predictions. Another tool is my own intuition. I like both.

[89Hen]

I know you don't like Sagarin.

Don't stop at Sagarin, I don't like any of the computers. They're all shit. 11 games to compare 120 teams = does not compute.

[BDKJMU]

I know you don't like Sagarin.

Don't stop at Sagarin, I don't like any of the computers. They're all ****. 11 games to compare 120 teams = does not compute.

And you think 11 games to compare 120 teams with a bunch of people voting in opinion polls does compute The human polls are no better. Like substituting one pile of for another.

[89Hen]

And you think 11 games to compare 120 teams with a bunch of people voting in opinion polls does compute The human polls are no better. Like substituting one pile of for another.

They compute more than computer models that rely SOLELY on limited data. The computers don't know if the starting QB is knocked out of a game, or there are monsoon conditions, or a bad officiating call, or any number of any other factors. They are also written by guys who rank chess players and don't know the first thing about football.

There is not a computer guy that can look you in the face and tell that 11 games is enough to compare teams across conferences that will never meet.

[clenz]

And you think 11 games to compare 120 teams with a bunch of people voting in opinion polls does compute The human polls are no better. Like substituting one pile of for another.

They compute more than computer models that rely SOLELY on limited data. The computers don't know if the starting QB is knocked out of a game, or there are monsoon conditions, or a bad officiating call, or any number of any other factors. They are also written by guys who rank chess players and don't know the first thing about football.

There is not a computer guy that can look you in the face and tell that 11 games is enough to compare teams across conferences that will never meet.

There is no human pollster that can look you in the face and tell you that 11 games is enough to compare teams across conferences that will never meet.

[89Hen]

There is no human pollster that can look you in the face and tell you that 11 games is enough to compare teams across conferences that will never meet.

So do away with both.

In I-AA no computer poll has ever out predicted the AGS Poll. You can't say the reverse.