Wins are a stupid stat for pitchers

[ToTheLeft]

David Price is coming in in relief for the Rays in the 5th inning of a 4-0 game against the Royals. If he completes the inning without surrendering the lead, and the Rays go on to win without giving up the lead, he will get his 20th win...

Still think wins are meaningful? It's a stupid stat that says nothing about what the pitcher does over the course of the season.

[UNHWildCats]

David Price is coming in in relief for the Rays in the 5th inning of a 4-0 game against the Royals. If he completes the inning without surrendering the lead, and the Rays go on to win without giving up the lead, he will get his 20th win...

Still think wins are meaningful? It's a stupid stat that says nothing about what the pitcher does over the course of the season.

Ya but Sabathia will still win cause he has lots and lots of wins in the pressure of the AL East....



oh wait :p






Yes wins are overrated.

[ToTheLeft]

Price is now the pitcher of record. Rays up 4-0, batting in the 5th, with the bases loaded.

[BlueHen86]

Price is now the pitcher of record. Rays up 4-0, batting in the 5th, with the bases loaded.

This move may get him his 20th win, but it may backfire in the Cy Young voting. The momentum for Hernandez is growing and a silly move this undermines the people who think wins should be a key factor in the voting.

It is also a stupid move. If Price were to get hurt, or if Price loses his first post season start the Rays coaching staff will have a lot of questions to answer.

[ToTheLeft]

Price is now the pitcher of record. Rays up 4-0, batting in the 5th, with the bases loaded.

This move may get him his 20th win, but it may backfire in the Cy Young voting. The momentum for Hernandez is growing and a silly move this undermines the people who think wins should be a key factor in the voting.

It is also a stupid move. If Price were to get hurt, or if Price loses his first post season start the Rays coaching staff will have a lot of questions to answer.

After reading back over the rules, I don't think he gets the win anyways. I think the plan was to have him in the pen regardless. We needed him since we pulled our starter after less than 3 full innings pitched.

Regardless, it's a stupid stat. But I think Chad Qualls will get the win.

[ToTheLeft]

Chad Qualls gets the win. Even more proof of how stupid the stat is... he threw 2 pitches.

[BlueHen86]

This move may get him his 20th win, but it may backfire in the Cy Young voting. The momentum for Hernandez is growing and a silly move this undermines the people who think wins should be a key factor in the voting.

It is also a stupid move. If Price were to get hurt, or if Price loses his first post season start the Rays coaching staff will have a lot of questions to answer.

After reading back over the rules, I don't think he gets the win anyways. I think the plan was to have him in the pen regardless. We needed him since we pulled our starter after less than 3 full innings pitched.

Regardless, it's a stupid stat. But I think Chad Qualls will get the win.

I'm not sure I like that plan. He's a starter, it's a little late in the season to be using him in relief. Either start him and let him pitch a few innings or don't use him at all.

[ToTheLeft]

After reading back over the rules, I don't think he gets the win anyways. I think the plan was to have him in the pen regardless. We needed him since we pulled our starter after less than 3 full innings pitched.

Regardless, it's a stupid stat. But I think Chad Qualls will get the win.

I'm not sure I like that plan. He's a starter, it's a little late in the season to be using him in relief. Either start him and let him pitch a few innings or don't use him at all.

Yanks did it with Hughes as well. Both have something in common tho, it hasn't been that long since they've been in the pen.

I don't mind it, especially just 10-15 pitches.

[Gil Dobie]

Ya but Sabathia will still win cause he has lots and lots of wins in the pressure of the AL East....

If Felix and Buchholz had exact same stats, you would pick Felix because it's so difficult pitching in the ALWest.

Felix 13-12, 2.27 era
Buchholz 17-7, 2.33 era

IMO, strikeout are great but over-rated.

[UNHWildCats]

Ya but Sabathia will still win cause he has lots and lots of wins in the pressure of the AL East....

If Felix and Buchholz had exact same stats, you would pick Felix because it's so difficult pitching in the ALWest.

Felix 13-12, 2.27 era
Buchholz 17-7, 2.33 era

IMO, strikeout are great but over-rated.

personally I think I would vote for Buchholz over all the rest... But I understand people not picking him because of his lower IP total. But its worth pointing out that had he not missed 6 starts and had his win % held up in those missed starts the same as his season total than Buchholz would be at around 206 IP and 21 to 22 wins and would be a near unanimous choice for Cy Young. But again I understand the unwillingness to vote for him because of the lower IP total... But Ken Rosenthal is a complete idiot for not including him among his top 5 Cy list.

[JoltinJoe]

I get it. If the members of the Varsity Math League voted for Cy Young, the winner would be Felix Hernandez.

But for anyone who actually played the game, we get the best pitcher isn't the one with the lowest ERA, or lowest WHIP, or even most Ks or any other stat the math geeks want to run up the pole. You don't become the best pitcher by even having the best stats over the course of a season.

We understand that the best pitcher establishes himself by proving to be the better of two pitchers on every fifth day over the course of a season.

By that standard (which is the only one I care about so long as the pennant goes to the team with most wins), Felix Hernandez was not the best pitcher in the league this year.

It's like banging your head against the wall with these sabermetricans, most of whom never played the game beyond Little League, and even then were mostly bench jockeys. Their stats have value if you understand their limitations.

The Math League wants to position this race as one between the old guard and the new guard, with the old guard being obtuse and not understanding the new stats.

But in truth this is a battle between people who grasp that the best pitcher is one who is simply the better of two pitchers most often; and those who think that every time a pitcher goes out, he is essentially pitching against all the pitchers in the league. The former is the way you win baseball games; the latter is the way you impress the Math League.

But the game gets decided on the field, and to win most often, you need to have the better of two pitchers most often.

Sabathia or Price are the only viable choices for AL Cy Young.

[Jibjab]

I get it. If the members of the Varsity Math League voted for Cy Young, the winner would be Felix Hernandez.

But for anyone who actually played the game, we get the best pitcher isn't the one with the lowest ERA, or lowest WHIP, or even most Ks or any other stat the math geeks want to run up the pole. You don't become the best pitcher by even having the best stats over the course of a season.

We understand that the best pitcher establishes himself by proving to be the better of two pitchers on every fifth day over the course of a season.

By that standard (which is the only one I care about so long as the pennant goes to the team with most wins), Felix Hernandez was not the best pitcher in the league this year.

It's like banging your head against the wall with these sabermetricans, most of whom never played the game beyond Little League, and even then were mostly bench jockeys. Their stats have value if you understand their limitations.

The Math League wants to position this race as one between the old guard and the new guard, with the old guard being obtuse and not understanding the new stats.

But in truth this is a battle between people who grasp that the best pitcher is one who is simply the better of two pitchers most often; and those who think that every time a pitcher goes out, he is essentially pitching against all the pitchers in the league. The former is the way you win baseball games; the latter is the way you impress the Math League.

But the game gets decided on the field, and to win most often, you need to have the better of two pitchers most often.

Sabathia or Price are the only viable choices for AL Cy Young.

Not according to leftnut, stats are king and we play games and judge players on paper. It's all about the stats bro, THE STATS!! Don't go against leftnut stats logic, he'll cry and then send you a pm about wanting to suck your cock.

[JoltinJoe]

How true. The game on the field and the actual results don't matter. They only play the games to create the stats necessary for the Math League to feed into their computers so they can tell us what the results should have been.

So you're up 7-2 in the 8th. Don't throw that fastball over the plate to the clean-up hitter. Instead of getting himself out as you hope, he might take you deep. So you win 7-3, instead of 7-2, but now the Math League thinks Felix Hernandez is better than you.

For all the baseball knowledge they claim, the fact they do not seem to understand that a great pitcher with more run support is likely to give up more runs than a peer pitcher with less run support really tells you all you need to know.

[BlueHen86]

How true. The game on the field and the actual results don't matter. They only play the games to create the stats necessary for the Math League to feed into their computers so they can tell us what the results should have been.

So you're up 7-2 in the 8th. Don't throw that fastball over the plate to the clean-up hitter. Instead of getting himself out as you hope, he might take you deep. So you win 7-3, instead of 7-2, but now the Math League thinks Felix Hernandez is better than you.

For all the baseball knowledge they claim, the fact they do not seem to understand that a great pitcher with more run support is likely to give up more runs than a peer pitcher with less run support really tells you all you need to know.

That is a legitmate argument. I was going to bring that up in Sabathia's favor a while ago, but you decided to bring up last years World Series so I let it go.

[JoltinJoe]

How true. The game on the field and the actual results don't matter. They only play the games to create the stats necessary for the Math League to feed into their computers so they can tell us what the results should have been.

So you're up 7-2 in the 8th. Don't throw that fastball over the plate to the clean-up hitter. Instead of getting himself out as you hope, he might take you deep. So you win 7-3, instead of 7-2, but now the Math League thinks Felix Hernandez is better than you.

For all the baseball knowledge they claim, the fact they do not seem to understand that a great pitcher with more run support is likely to give up more runs than a peer pitcher with less run support really tells you all you need to know.

That is a legitmate argument. I was going to bring that up in Sabathia's favor a while ago, but you decided to bring up last years World Series so I let it go.

Hey, that's cool. It's all fair when guys talk sports, fan of the team with the most all-time losses.

[BlueHen86]

That is a legitmate argument. I was going to bring that up in Sabathia's favor a while ago, but you decided to bring up last years World Series so I let it go.

Hey, that's cool. It's all fair when guys talk sports, fan of the team with the most all-time losses.

Proof that I'm not a front runner.

[ToTheLeft]

How true. The game on the field and the actual results don't matter. They only play the games to create the stats necessary for the Math League to feed into their computers so they can tell us what the results should have been.

So you're up 7-2 in the 8th. Don't throw that fastball over the plate to the clean-up hitter. Instead of getting himself out as you hope, he might take you deep. So you win 7-3, instead of 7-2, but now the Math League thinks Felix Hernandez is better than you.

For all the baseball knowledge they claim, the fact they do not seem to understand that a great pitcher with more run support is likely to give up more runs than a peer pitcher with less run support really tells you all you need to know.

So you're saying that, because CC is in a situation where he should give up more runs, he should get a pat on the back and a Cy Young because he didn't give up the runs you think he should have?

Then why doesn't it work that Felix gets credit for wins he should have got but didn't because his team sucks? I mean, if we're assuming things and using abstract, "non Math-league" bullcrap to determine who's best, why can't we say "Oh, Felix only gave up 2 runs tonight, he would have won on a good team..."

Felix was the best pitcher in the AL this season. All CC has is wins. He doesn't have anything in any other category to say he's worthy of the Cy Young... And by this same logic, you could say that, since CC lost one more game than Price, that Price should be Cy Young because he didn't lose as much for his team.

Anyways...

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?opti ... Itemid=176" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[JoltinJoe]

How true. The game on the field and the actual results don't matter. They only play the games to create the stats necessary for the Math League to feed into their computers so they can tell us what the results should have been.

So you're up 7-2 in the 8th. Don't throw that fastball over the plate to the clean-up hitter. Instead of getting himself out as you hope, he might take you deep. So you win 7-3, instead of 7-2, but now the Math League thinks Felix Hernandez is better than you.

For all the baseball knowledge they claim, the fact they do not seem to understand that a great pitcher with more run support is likely to give up more runs than a peer pitcher with less run support really tells you all you need to know.

So you're saying that, because CC is in a situation where he should give up more runs, he should get a pat on the back and a Cy Young because he didn't give up the runs you think he should have?

Then why doesn't it work that Felix gets credit for wins he should have got but didn't because his team sucks? I mean, if we're assuming things and using abstract, "non Math-league" bullcrap to determine who's best, why can't we say "Oh, Felix only gave up 2 runs tonight, he would have won on a good team..."

Felix was the best pitcher in the AL this season. All CC has is wins. He doesn't have anything in any other category to say he's worthy of the Cy Young... And by this same logic, you could say that, since CC lost one more game than Price, that Price should be Cy Young because he didn't lose as much for his team.

Anyways...

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?opti ... Itemid=176" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No, I'm saying that Price or Sabathia should get the Cy Young because they did what they were supposed to do most often: be the better of two pitchers on a given night. Again, you become the best not by having the best overall side stats over the course of a season, but by being the better of two pitchers most often.

Think of a golf match. The Math League turns pitching into stroke play, even though the game is really match play.

When a starting pitcher takes the ball on a given night, he is not pitching against the field -- all the pitchers in the league -- he is in a match with one other pitcher. Like match play in golf, you win the tournament not with the best overall gross scores over the whole tournament, but by winning the most matches.

In golf, it is common for the winner of a match tournament to have a higher overall gross than other competitors.

Moreover, it seems to me that the more you've played baseball on a serious level, the more you grasp what I'm saying. In your article, the former players, Pleasac and Reynolds, agree with me. And Dan Duquette, a former GM who never presided over a championship, agrees with you.

I'm amused that your article tries to paint the debate as one between the old guard and the new, cooler, hipper stats. Trust me. Nothing is cooler than winning.

[Gil Dobie]

How true. The game on the field and the actual results don't matter. They only play the games to create the stats necessary for the Math League to feed into their computers so they can tell us what the results should have been.

So you're up 7-2 in the 8th. Don't throw that fastball over the plate to the clean-up hitter. Instead of getting himself out as you hope, he might take you deep. So you win 7-3, instead of 7-2, but now the Math League thinks Felix Hernandez is better than you.

For all the baseball knowledge they claim, the fact they do not seem to understand that a great pitcher with more run support is likely to give up more runs than a peer pitcher with less run support really tells you all you need to know.

So you're saying that, because CC is in a situation where he should give up more runs, he should get a pat on the back and a Cy Young because he didn't give up the runs you think he should have?

Then why doesn't it work that Felix gets credit for wins he should have got but didn't because his team sucks? I mean, if we're assuming things and using abstract, "non Math-league" bullcrap to determine who's best, why can't we say "Oh, Felix only gave up 2 runs tonight, he would have won on a good team..."

Felix was the best pitcher in the AL this season. All CC has is wins. He doesn't have anything in any other category to say he's worthy of the Cy Young... And by this same logic, you could say that, since CC lost one more game than Price, that Price should be Cy Young because he didn't lose as much for his team.

Anyways...

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?opti ... Itemid=176" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Why is Felix better than say, Jared Weaver? Weaver was 13-12.
Head to Head
May 7 Weaver defeated Hernandez 8-0
July 16 Weaver defeated Hernandez 3-2

Felix is good, but not the best pitcher in the AL, I would even take Buchholz over him.
Buchholz 17-7 & 2.33 era playing at hitter friendly Fenway Park
Felix 13-12 & 2.27 era

[Gil Dobie]

Only 2 of his losses were by 1 run, and opponents scored 3 or more runs in all but 1 loss.
Looks to me that he was an on and off pitcher, giving up a lot of runs or pitching a great game.

Felix Hernandez 2010 decisions
4/16 - Defeated Detroit 6-5 (Bonderman)
4/21 - Defeated Baltimore 4-1 (Millwood)
4/26 - Loss to KC 3-1 (Davies)
5/1 - Loss to Texas 6-3 (Harrison)
5/7 - Loss to LA 8-0 (Weaver)
5/23 - Loss to SD 8-1 (Latos)
6/3 - Defeated Minnesota 4-1 (Pavano)
6/8 - Loss to Texas 7-1 (Lewis)
6/13 - Defeated SD 4-2 (Gregerson)
6/19 - Defeated Cincy 5-1 (LeClure)
6/30 - Defeated Yankees 7-0 (Vasquez)
7/10 - Defeated Yankkes 4-1 (Chamberlain)
7/16 - Loss to LA 3-2 (Weaver)
7/31 - Loss to Minnesota 4-0 (Slowey)
8-5 - Loss to Texas 6-0 (Hunter)
8-10 - Defeated Oakland 2-0 (Anderson)
8-15 - Loss to Cleveland 9-1 (Sipp)
8-20 - Defeated Yankees 6-0 (Burnett)
8-25 - Defeated Red Sox 4-2 (Wakefield)
9/5 - Defeated Cleveland 3-0 (Gomez)
9/11 - Loss to LA 7-4 (Santana)
9/17 - Defeated Texas 2-1 (Wilson)
9/23 - Loss to Toronto 1-0 (Hill)
9/28 - Defeated Texas 3-1 (Feldman)

[ToTheLeft]

Only 2 of his losses were by 1 run, and opponents scored 3 or more runs in all but 1 loss.
Looks to me that he was an on and off pitcher, giving up a lot of runs or pitching a great game.

Felix Hernandez 2010 decisions
4/16 - Defeated Detroit 6-5 (Bonderman)
4/21 - Defeated Baltimore 4-1 (Millwood)
4/26 - Loss to KC 3-1 (Davies)
5/1 - Loss to Texas 6-3 (Harrison)
5/7 - Loss to LA 8-0 (Weaver)
5/23 - Loss to SD 8-1 (Latos)
6/3 - Defeated Minnesota 4-1 (Pavano)
6/8 - Loss to Texas 7-1 (Lewis)
6/13 - Defeated SD 4-2 (Gregerson)
6/19 - Defeated Cincy 5-1 (LeClure)
6/30 - Defeated Yankees 7-0 (Vasquez)
7/10 - Defeated Yankkes 4-1 (Chamberlain)
7/16 - Loss to LA 3-2 (Weaver)
7/31 - Loss to Minnesota 4-0 (Slowey)
8-5 - Loss to Texas 6-0 (Hunter)
8-10 - Defeated Oakland 2-0 (Anderson)
8-15 - Loss to Cleveland 9-1 (Sipp)
8-20 - Defeated Yankees 6-0 (Burnett)
8-25 - Defeated Red Sox 4-2 (Wakefield)
9/5 - Defeated Cleveland 3-0 (Gomez)
9/11 - Loss to LA 7-4 (Santana)
9/17 - Defeated Texas 2-1 (Wilson)
9/23 - Loss to Toronto 1-0 (Hill)
9/28 - Defeated Texas 3-1 (Feldman)

You realize not all of those runs are his, right? He does have relief pitchers.

[ToTheLeft]

So you're saying that, because CC is in a situation where he should give up more runs, he should get a pat on the back and a Cy Young because he didn't give up the runs you think he should have?

Then why doesn't it work that Felix gets credit for wins he should have got but didn't because his team sucks? I mean, if we're assuming things and using abstract, "non Math-league" bullcrap to determine who's best, why can't we say "Oh, Felix only gave up 2 runs tonight, he would have won on a good team..."

Felix was the best pitcher in the AL this season. All CC has is wins. He doesn't have anything in any other category to say he's worthy of the Cy Young... And by this same logic, you could say that, since CC lost one more game than Price, that Price should be Cy Young because he didn't lose as much for his team.

Anyways...

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?opti ... Itemid=176" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No, I'm saying that Price or Sabathia should get the Cy Young because they did what they were supposed to do most often: be the better of two pitchers on a given night. Again, you become the best not by having the best overall side stats over the course of a season, but by being the better of two pitchers most often.

Think of a golf match. The Math League turns pitching into stroke play, even though the game is really match play.

When a starting pitcher takes the ball on a given night, he is not pitching against the field -- all the pitchers in the league -- he is in a match with one other pitcher. Like match play in golf, you win the tournament not with the best overall gross scores over the whole tournament, but by winning the most matches.

In golf, it is common for the winner of a match tournament to have a higher overall gross than other competitors.

Moreover, it seems to me that the more you've played baseball on a serious level, the more you grasp what I'm saying. In your article, the former players, Pleasac and Reynolds, agree with me. And Dan Duquette, a former GM who never presided over a championship, agrees with you.

I'm amused that your article tries to paint the debate as one between the old guard and the new, cooler, hipper stats. Trust me. Nothing is cooler than winning.

It might not be stroke play, but for a pitcher, especially in the AL, it's not match play either. They don't get to play every aspect of the game. They don't get to contribute to the offense, which is half of the components used to determine whether they win or not. That'd be like if Tiger got to drive the ball, but had to rely on Michelle Wei to play the approach and putt.

Wins are important, because at the end of the day, you want your team to win. But that doesn't tell you who the best pitcher was.

And the Rays GM agrees with me, too, because he's a part of the "Math League". So is Joe Maddon. And who won the AL East again? Oh, yeah, that's right. The team with a 70m payroll, beating out a 200m payroll. Because they don't just go get "wins", they get GOOD PLAYERS. Give me a choice between a guy with 20 wins, or a guy with a better xFIP than the guy with 20 wins, and I'll take the latter, and I'll have a better team.

[JoltinJoe]

But if you look at his game stats this year, Gil's point holds up. Worse, in May, when the Mariners fell to the bottom of the standings like a rock, Hernandez was a below average pitcher who gave up 19 earned runs in 35 innings (for about a 4.8 ERA) , and the Mariners lost every one of his every one of his starts.

A guy only the Math League could love. It would be a travesty if he won Cy Young.


DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA*
Sep 28 @TEX W 3-1 8.0 5 1 1 0 2 5 16 7 111 30 71 W(13-12) - 2.34
Sep 23 @TOR L 1-0 8.0 2 1 1 1 4 5 14 5 110 28 75 L(12-12) - 2.38
Sep 17 TEX W 2-1 8.0 3 1 1 1 1 8 9 10 98 28 79 W(12-11) - 2.43
Sep 11 @LAA L 7-4 6.1 6 7 4 1 3 5 14 7 114 29 41 L(11-11) - 2.47
Sep 5 CLE W 3-0 8.0 4 0 0 0 1 9 8 11 111 31 82 W(11-10) - 2.38
Monthly Totals 38.1 20 10 7 3 11 32 61 40 544 146 -- 3-2 0 sv 1.64
DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA*
Aug 31 LAA W 3-1 7.0 3 0 0 0 3 8 8 7 104 26 76 - - 2.47
Aug 25 @BOS W 4-2 7.1 4 2 1 1 1 9 11 8 122 29 72 W(10-10) - 2.55
Aug 20 @NYY W 6-0 8.0 4 0 0 0 3 11 11 5 117 30 82 W(9-10) - 2.60
Aug 15 @CLE L 9-1 6.2 6 6 0 1 4 7 10 10 110 31 53 L(8-10) - 2.71
Aug 10 OAK W 2-0 8.0 5 0 0 0 1 13 8 6 110 28 84 W(8-9) - 2.81
Aug 5 TEX L 6-0 6.2 8 3 3 1 1 3 14 10 110 28 48 L(7-9) - 2.94
Monthly Totals 43.2 30 11 4 3 13 51 62 46 673 172 -- 3-2 0 sv 0.82
DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA*
Jul 31 @MIN L 4-0 7.0 7 3 3 0 1 4 16 8 99 29 54 L(7-8) - 2.90
Jul 26 @CHW L 6-1 7.0 8 4 2 1 3 3 12 13 117 31 49 L(7-7) - 2.86
Jul 21 CHW W 2-1 8.0 2 0 0 0 0 8 12 6 93 26 86 - - 2.75
Jul 16 @LAA L 3-2 8.0 10 3 3 0 0 3 14 14 101 32 53 L(7-6) - 2.90
Jul 10 NYY W 4-1 9.0 10 1 1 1 2 9 12 14 126 37 70 W(7-5) - 2.88
Jul 5 KC L 6-4 7.0 6 2 2 0 2 6 9 11 112 28 61 - - 3.01
Monthly Totals 46.0 43 13 11 2 8 33 75 66 648 183 -- 1-3 0 sv 2.15
DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA*
Jun 30 @NYY W 7-0 9.0 2 0 0 0 3 11 6 12 115 32 91 W(6-5) - 3.03
Jun 24 CHC L 3-2 9.0 5 2 2 0 1 8 16 8 117 34 76 - - 3.28
Jun 19 CIN W 5-1 9.0 5 1 1 0 1 9 11 11 116 32 81 W(5-5) - 3.39
Jun 13 @SD W 4-2 8.2 4 2 2 1 1 9 15 6 128 31 76 W(4-5) - 3.61
Jun 8 @TEX L 7-1 6.0 8 7 7 1 3 5 13 8 107 31 30 L(3-5) - 3.77
Jun 3 MIN W 4-1 8.0 5 1 1 0 1 9 9 12 116 31 76 W(3-4) - 3.26
Monthly Totals 49.2 29 13 13 2 10 51 70 57 699 191 -- 4-1 0 sv 2.36
DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA*
May 29 @LAA L 5-1 8.0 6 1 1 1 3 7 11 11 111 33 70 - - 3.50
May 23 SD L 8-1 7.0 7 3 2 0 1 6 10 12 110 29 58 L(2-4) - 3.80
May 18 @OAK L 6-5 6.0 11 3 3 0 2 6 9 12 118 29 42 - - 3.95
May 13 @BAL L 6-5 7.0 5 1 1 0 2 7 11 7 105 27 68 - - 3.88
May 7 LAA L 8-0 3.1 5 8 7 3 4 3 3 9 84 19 19 L(2-3) - 4.30
May 1 TEX L 6-3 4.1 8 5 5 1 4 5 6 9 96 24 28 L(2-2) - 3.10
Monthly Totals 35.2 42 21 19 5 16 34 50 60 624 161 -- 0-3 0 sv 4.79
DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA*
Apr 26 @KC L 3-1 7.0 7 3 2 1 3 7 13 10 114 33 57 L(2-1) - 2.23
Apr 21 BAL W 4-1 9.0 9 1 0 0 0 6 18 11 113 35 73 W(2-0) - 2.15
Apr 16 DET W 11-3 6.2 4 2 2 0 2 9 8 6 105 25 65 W(1-0) - 3.10
Apr 10 @TEX W 4-3 7.0 7 3 2 1 1 5 11 11 110 29 57 - - 3.29
Apr 5 @OAK W 5-3 6.2 3 3 3 0 6 4 15 1 101 26 54 - - 4.05
Monthly Totals 36.1 30 12 9 2 12 31 65 39 543 148 -- 2-1 0 sv 2.23
IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF AGS W-L S-BS-H ERA
Totals 249.2 194 80 63 17 70 232 383 308 3731 1001 63 13-12 0-0-0 2.27

[JoltinJoe]

No, I'm saying that Price or Sabathia should get the Cy Young because they did what they were supposed to do most often: be the better of two pitchers on a given night. Again, you become the best not by having the best overall side stats over the course of a season, but by being the better of two pitchers most often.

Think of a golf match. The Math League turns pitching into stroke play, even though the game is really match play.

When a starting pitcher takes the ball on a given night, he is not pitching against the field -- all the pitchers in the league -- he is in a match with one other pitcher. Like match play in golf, you win the tournament not with the best overall gross scores over the whole tournament, but by winning the most matches.

In golf, it is common for the winner of a match tournament to have a higher overall gross than other competitors.

Moreover, it seems to me that the more you've played baseball on a serious level, the more you grasp what I'm saying. In your article, the former players, Pleasac and Reynolds, agree with me. And Dan Duquette, a former GM who never presided over a championship, agrees with you.

I'm amused that your article tries to paint the debate as one between the old guard and the new, cooler, hipper stats. Trust me. Nothing is cooler than winning.

It might not be stroke play, but for a pitcher, especially in the AL, it's not match play either. They don't get to play every aspect of the game. They don't get to contribute to the offense, which is half of the components used to determine whether they win or not. That'd be like if Tiger got to drive the ball, but had to rely on Michelle Wei to play the approach and putt.

Wins are important, because at the end of the day, you want your team to win. But that doesn't tell you who the best pitcher was.

And the Rays GM agrees with me, too, because he's a part of the "Math League". So is Joe Maddon. And who won the AL East again? Oh, yeah, that's right. The team with a 70m payroll, beating out a 200m payroll. Because they don't just go get "wins", they get GOOD PLAYERS. Give me a choice between a guy with 20 wins, or a guy with a better xFIP than the guy with 20 wins, and I'll take the latter, and I'll have a better team.

Actually Maddon and Andrew Friedman use sabermetrics the way it is supposed to be used: as predictive mathematical devices. I sincerely doubt either would embrace sabermetrics as a tool to tell you what should have happened this year, i.e. Hernandez should be Cy Young because he should have won more games based on his overall statistical body of work. Sabermetrics is useful to predict what may happen next year. It cannot be used as a substitute for what actually happened this year.

They use it to tell them how to build a team for next year. Sabermetrics can't be used to tell you that Hernandez had a better year than Sabathia or Price (that having been actually disproved on the field) or even that historically Luis Tiant was a better pitcher than Catfish Hunter (again, that having been actually disproved on the field). 9Although I think Tiant deserves a HOF nod).

And pitching is definitely match play. Your analogy doesn't hold. It may be true that -- unlike golf -- one pitcher may get to play an "easier course" than the other, but from a pitcher's perspective, every game is match play against the other pitcher.

[Gil Dobie]

Only 2 of his losses were by 1 run, and opponents scored 3 or more runs in all but 1 loss.
Looks to me that he was an on and off pitcher, giving up a lot of runs or pitching a great game.

Felix Hernandez 2010 decisions
4/16 - Defeated Detroit 6-5 (Bonderman)
4/21 - Defeated Baltimore 4-1 (Millwood)
4/26 - Loss to KC 3-1 (Davies)
5/1 - Loss to Texas 6-3 (Harrison)
5/7 - Loss to LA 8-0 (Weaver)
5/23 - Loss to SD 8-1 (Latos)
6/3 - Defeated Minnesota 4-1 (Pavano)
6/8 - Loss to Texas 7-1 (Lewis)
6/13 - Defeated SD 4-2 (Gregerson)
6/19 - Defeated Cincy 5-1 (LeClure)
6/30 - Defeated Yankees 7-0 (Vasquez)
7/10 - Defeated Yankkes 4-1 (Chamberlain)
7/16 - Loss to LA 3-2 (Weaver)
7/31 - Loss to Minnesota 4-0 (Slowey)
8-5 - Loss to Texas 6-0 (Hunter)
8-10 - Defeated Oakland 2-0 (Anderson)
8-15 - Loss to Cleveland 9-1 (Sipp)
8-20 - Defeated Yankees 6-0 (Burnett)
8-25 - Defeated Red Sox 4-2 (Wakefield)
9/5 - Defeated Cleveland 3-0 (Gomez)
9/11 - Loss to LA 7-4 (Santana)
9/17 - Defeated Texas 2-1 (Wilson)
9/23 - Loss to Toronto 1-0 (Hill)
9/28 - Defeated Texas 3-1 (Feldman)

You realize not all of those runs are his, right? He does have relief pitchers.

You realize Hernandez gave up the winning run in those games.