My Election 2010 Predictions

[UNHWildCats]

Democrats will lose 33 House seats but maintain a slight advantage of 223-212 over Republicans in the chamber. I also predict Democrats will abandon Nancy Pelosi when they select their member to put up for Speaker. A possible replacement could be Xavier Becerra of California.

In the Senate the road to a majority is much easier for Democrats. When taking into account seats not up for election and seats that are pretty much safe and the two current Independents caucusing with Democrats they hold a 49-40 advantage. They would need to win just one of the remaining 11 seats that consist of: Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin. I predict Democrats will win atleast 3 of those races and will have a 52-48 Senate advantage. Though they could easily win as many as 6.

RESULT: Well I split. Way off on the house and looks like the Senate will be 52-48, so I nailed that.

[GannonFan]

That's probably the most optimistic outcome for the Dems, and right now, it's hard to see that happening. It just gets uglier and uglier as the election approaches.

I see the Dems losing the House (GOP may only get low to mid 40's in terms of seats changing hands) and I think you're about right on the Senate - there's no way the GOP comes close to winning there, although anything closer to even will pretty much gridlock that chamber anyway - nothing's getting through without significant bi-partisan support, even if the GOP only picks up another 3 seats there.

[Ivytalk]

Jeez, Travis, are you sleeping with David Axelrod or what?

[andy7171]

Democrats will lose 33 House seats but maintain a slight advantage of 223-212 over Republicans in the chamber. I also predict Democrats will abandon Nancy Pelosi when they select their member to put up for Speaker. A possible replacement could be Xavier Becerra of California.

In the Senate the road to a majority is much easier for Democrats. When taking into account seats not up for election and seats that are pretty much safe and the two current Independents caucusing with Democrats they hold a 49-40 advantage. They would need to win just one of the remaining 11 seats that consist of: Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin. I predict Democrats will win atleast 3 of those races and will have a 52-48 Senate advantage. Though they could easily win as many as 6.

This post receives a 18 rating in Appa's partisan poll thread.

[Col Hogan]

Post election prediction:

House goes Republican
Senate stays Democratic

Numbers...still up in the air...

[native]

Democrats will lose 33 House seats but maintain a slight advantage of 223-212 over Republicans in the chamber. I also predict Democrats will abandon Nancy Pelosi when they select their member to put up for Speaker. A possible replacement could be Xavier Becerra of California.

In the Senate the road to a majority is much easier for Democrats. When taking into account seats not up for election and seats that are pretty much safe and the two current Independents caucusing with Democrats they hold a 49-40 advantage. They would need to win just one of the remaining 11 seats that consist of: Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin. I predict Democrats will win at least 3 of those races and will have a 52-48 Senate advantage. Though they could easily win as many as 6.

You are indulging in wishful thinking and flawed analyses, wildcats. The Senate race is outside the margin of error in favor of the Republican in eight of the eleven seats you mentioned: West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Wisconsin. Only Illinois, Washington and Nevada remain closely contested, and California is also in play.

Rasmussen shows likely Senate seats tied at 48 each, with only four seats in the "toss up" category: Nevada, California, Illinois and Washington. The RCP average shows 48 likely Senate seats for Democrats, 46 for Republicans, with 6 undecideds, including West Virginia and Colorado, but both Bennet (CO) and Raese (WVa) have reached 50% and led polling in states where Obama's approval is dismal, casting doubt on the likelihood of a Dem turnaround in those two races. The Repubs need only split the four toss ups to obtain a 50-50 split in the Senate. I think they will take three of the four.

In the House, the RCP average shows 210 seats in the Republican column with 39 toos ups. The Republicans need only split the toss ups to end up with 230 seats. It is more likely for the Repubs to gain 75 seats than for the Dems to retain control of the House.

My predictions:

House: Republicans win at least 229 seats (+50), but more likely 250 or more.

Senate: Republicans win at least 49 seats, but more likely 50 or 51, with an outside chance at 52 or 53.

More bad news for your team, cats, but geat news for America: After 3 November, Republicans will hold 60% or more of the nation's governorships.

[UNHWildCats]

Democrats will lose 33 House seats but maintain a slight advantage of 223-212 over Republicans in the chamber. I also predict Democrats will abandon Nancy Pelosi when they select their member to put up for Speaker. A possible replacement could be Xavier Becerra of California.

In the Senate the road to a majority is much easier for Democrats. When taking into account seats not up for election and seats that are pretty much safe and the two current Independents caucusing with Democrats they hold a 49-40 advantage. They would need to win just one of the remaining 11 seats that consist of: Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin. I predict Democrats will win at least 3 of those races and will have a 52-48 Senate advantage. Though they could easily win as many as 6.

You are indulging in wishful thinking and flawed analyses, wildcats. The Senate race is outside the margin of error in favor of the Republican in eight of the eleven seats you mentioned: West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Wisconsin. Only Illinois, Washington and Nevada remain closely contested, and California is also in play.

Rasmussen shows likely Senate seats tied at 48 each, with only four seats in the "toss up" category: Nevada, California, Illinois and Washington. The RCP average shows 48 likely Senate seats for Democrats, 46 for Republicans, with 6 undecideds, including West Virginia and Colorado, but both Bennet (CO) and Raese (WVa) have reached 50% and led polling in states where Obama's approval is dismal, casting doubt on the likelihood of a Dem turnaround in those two races. The Repubs need only split the four toss ups to obtain a 50-50 split in the Senate. I think they will take three of the four.

In the House, the RCP average shows 210 seats in the Republican column with 39 toos ups. The Republicans need only split the toss ups to end up with 230 seats. It is more likely for the Repubs to gain 75 seats than for the Dems to retain control of the House.

My predictions:

House: Republicans win at least 229 seats (+50), but more likely 250 or more.

Senate: Republicans win at least 49 seats, but more likely 50 or 51, with an outside chance at 52 or 53.

More bad news for your team, cats, but geat news for America: After 3 November, Republicans will hold 60% or more of the nation's governorships.

I list Kentucky as a tossup because while Paul does lead, it has been trending towards the Democrat, and while Paul may indeed win, it is far from a sure thing.

In West Virginia Raese had a few good polls from Rasmussen, however the only other pollster there so far PPP went from a Raese +3 a month ago to a Manchin +3 this week. Rasmussen should have a new poll this week on the race and we will see if the trend back towards Manchin shows up in their poll as well. In any case, Manchin is a well liked Governor of the state who shouldnt be too effected by Obama's approval there. He currently sits at 68% approval, which is the highest of any political figure PPP has polled in 2010.

Ohio should not have been listed as a tossup, I hadnt realized how out of hand the numbers have gotten there. It is a definite safe GOP seat.

The other states all remain relatively close and are winnable by either candidate as election day approaches. In New Hampshire, two of the three recent pollsters show it slightly trending towards the Democrat Paul Hodes.

In California Boxer has lead since late August in all polls. RCP shows only 4 polls in two years that show Fiorina with any kind of lead... While the numbers are close, I personally see this as a safe seat, and since this is my predictions I dont list it as a tossup.

[89Hen]

That's probably the most optimistic outcome for the Dems

What did you expect given the author?

[Bronco]

I predict that you'll be arrested for trying to vote multiple times like a good Dem...Lib...progressive

[UNHWildCats]

I predict that you'll be arrested for trying to vote multiple times like a good Dem...Lib...progressive

I live in NY.... like dems here need that.... we can kick the GOPs ass legally here

[Bronco]

I predict that you'll be arrested for trying to vote multiple times like a good Dem...Lib...progressive

I live in NY.... like dems here need that.... we can kick the GOPs ass legally here

Yep NY Dems know how to insure they keep control

Board of Elections gaffe may nullify New York soldiers' overseas absentee ballots
BY THOMAS M. DEFRANK AND LUKAS I. ALPERT
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITERS



In all, there are 49,468 registered overseas voters in New York State, 20,172 of whom are in the military.
In the five boroughs, there are 36,446 registered overseas voters, including 6,557 who serve in the armed forces, election officials said.

"We send our young men and women overseas to fight and die for us, and we don't care enough to make sure they get the right to exercise their franchise?" fumed Mayor Bloomberg.

"That's what they're over there fighting for as much as anything else," he added.
City election officials said the absentee ballots for New Yorkers fighting abroad began getting shipped out on Sunday - 10 days past deadline.


Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/201 ... z12CADVUo4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[UNHWildCats]

Well I split. Way off on the house and looks like the Senate will be 52-48, so I nailed that.

[89Hen]

Well I split. Way off on the house and looks like the Senate will be 52-48, so I nailed that.

Split? You're being a little generous. Just about every expert said the Dems would hold the Senate, you just went with the chalk there. Your prediction of the Dems retaining the House far outweighs the other pick.

[native]

You are indulging in wishful thinking and flawed analyses, wildcats. The Senate race is outside the margin of error in favor of the Republican in eight of the eleven seats you mentioned: West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Wisconsin. Only Illinois, Washington and Nevada remain closely contested, and California is also in play.

Rasmussen shows likely Senate seats tied at 48 each, with only four seats in the "toss up" category: Nevada, California, Illinois and Washington. The RCP average shows 48 likely Senate seats for Democrats, 46 for Republicans, with 6 undecideds, including West Virginia and Colorado, but both Bennet (CO) and Raese (WVa) have reached 50% and led polling in states where Obama's approval is dismal, casting doubt on the likelihood of a Dem turnaround in those two races. The Repubs need only split the four toss ups to obtain a 50-50 split in the Senate. I think they will take three of the four.

In the House, the RCP average shows 210 seats in the Republican column with 39 toos ups. The Republicans need only split the toss ups to end up with 230 seats. It is more likely for the Repubs to gain 75 seats than for the Dems to retain control of the House.

My predictions:

House: Republicans win at least 229 seats (+50), but more likely 250 or more.

Senate: Republicans win at least 49 seats, but more likely 50 or 51, with an outside chance at 52 or 53.

More bad news for your team, cats, but geat news for America: After 3 November, Republicans will hold 60% or more of the nation's governorships.

I list Kentucky as a tossup because while Paul does lead, it has been trending towards the Democrat, and while Paul may indeed win, it is far from a sure thing.

In West Virginia Raese had a few good polls from Rasmussen, however the only other pollster there so far PPP went from a Raese +3 a month ago to a Manchin +3 this week. Rasmussen should have a new poll this week on the race and we will see if the trend back towards Manchin shows up in their poll as well. In any case, Manchin is a well liked Governor of the state who shouldnt be too effected by Obama's approval there. He currently sits at 68% approval, which is the highest of any political figure PPP has polled in 2010.

Ohio should not have been listed as a tossup, I hadnt realized how out of hand the numbers have gotten there. It is a definite safe GOP seat.

The other states all remain relatively close and are winnable by either candidate as election day approaches. In New Hampshire, two of the three recent pollsters show it slightly trending towards the Democrat Paul Hodes.

In California Boxer has lead since late August in all polls. RCP shows only 4 polls in two years that show Fiorina with any kind of lead... While the numbers are close, I personally see this as a safe seat, and since this is my predictions I dont list it as a tossup.

Yep. A lot of things - including Rasmussen's predictions - changed after my original post on 11 October.