Lang has playoff predictions based on how he thinks the season will play out. Will be updated weekly. This is the most thought out projection I've seen this year. Click the link to read his analysis including detailed conference by conference breakdowns.
THE BRACKET
First round
Lehigh (8-3) at Liberty (9-2)
Robert Morris (9-1) at South Carolina State (9-2)
Northern Arizona (8-3) at Chattanooga (7-4)
James Madison (7-4) at Georgia Southern (7-4)
Second round
Western Illinois (8-3) at Southeast Missouri State (9-2)
Lehigh/Liberty winner at #1 Delaware (10-1)
Villanova (7-4) at #5 Eastern Washington (9-2)
NAU/Chattanooga winner at #4 Stephen F. Austin (10-1)
Massachusetts (8-3) at Montana (8-3)
Robert Morris/SC State winner at #3 Appalachian State (9-2)
Montana State (8-3) at Wofford (9-2)
JMU/Ga. Southern winner at #2 Jacksonville State (11-0)
As much as I would like to see the SoCon get 4 into The Big Show, the FCS Noise Machine (and their transitive fallacies of football) will drag the debate down with their puffery.
Thanks. It's a good start for the debate --- let's roll
"But the damned and the guiltiest among you are the men who had the capacity to know, yet chose to blank out reality, the men who were willing to sell their intelligence into cynical servitude..."
- John Galt
jcmanson wrote:Lang has playoff predictions based on how he thinks the season will play out. Will be updated weekly. This is the most thought out projection I've seen this year. Click the link to read his analysis including detailed conference by conference breakdowns.
THE BRACKET
First round
Lehigh (8-3) at Liberty (9-2)
Robert Morris (9-1) at South Carolina State (9-2)
Northern Arizona (8-3) at Chattanooga (7-4)
James Madison (7-4) at Georgia Southern (7-4)
Second round
Western Illinois (8-3) at Southeast Missouri State (9-2)
Lehigh/Liberty winner at #1 Delaware (10-1)
Villanova (7-4) at #5 Eastern Washington (9-2)
NAU/Chattanooga winner at #4 Stephen F. Austin (10-1)
Massachusetts (8-3) at Montana (8-3)
Robert Morris/SC State winner at #3 Appalachian State (9-2)
Montana State (8-3) at Wofford (9-2)
JMU/Ga. Southern winner at #2 Jacksonville State (11-0)
No real gripe on the teams but again people are ignoring the NCAA's cost containment mentality in dealing with the matchups.
If RMU and Lehigh are both in the opening round they are playing each other. Its 308 miles and a required bus trip. The NCAA will match them up.
The same is true for Liberty and SCST - less than 400 miles = bus = good matchup for the NCAA.
The rest of the opening round matchups would be flights and when you're on a plane the NCAA doesn't care where you're flying. Once you get over 400 miles the distance no longer matters.
Last edited by danefan on Wed Oct 20, 2010 7:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
Aho Old Guy wrote:As much as I would like to see the SoCon get 4 into The Big Show, the FCS Noise Machine (and their transitive fallacies of football) will drag the debate down with their puffery.
Thanks. It's a good start for the debate --- let's roll
Yeah a good perspective so far. I can see Bethune-Cookman maybe losing to either Fla A&M or Hampton - but not both, giving them the auto bid over SCSU. Rhode Island over Villanova? I'm not buying that one either. I would love to see four SoCon teams get in, but no matter how many make it the conference needs someone other than App State to win some games. I think the last time the SoCon had two teams deep in the bracket was in the 2005 Semis with ASU/Furman. Speaking of Furman, I agree with him that there sliding quick this year. I picked the Paladins to be a playoff team before the season started but I'm moving in the other direction on that now.
danefan: Just caught your post about the NCAA criteria from the handbook. In the past, so much has been done on bids alone that I sort of went away from the geographical philosophy in the projection. I'll amend next week's projection to include the handbook criteria.
Also, it's funny how much one game could change the whole projection. If I'm wrong and W&M beats Delaware Saturday, the Tribe gets to 7-4 and earns a bid in my mind. Still kind of early to do a projection, but with the team I cover off this week, I had a little more free time on my hands to get started with it.
Chris Lang wrote:danefan: Just caught your post about the NCAA criteria from the handbook. In the past, so much has been done on bids alone that I sort of went away from the geographical philosophy in the projection. I'll amend next week's projection to include the handbook criteria.
Also, it's funny how much one game could change the whole projection. If I'm wrong and W&M beats Delaware Saturday, the Tribe gets to 7-4 and earns a bid in my mind. Still kind of early to do a projection, but with the team I cover off this week, I had a little more free time on my hands to get started with it.
The CAA, MVFC and Big Sky really hold the keys to the playoff selections this year. There is so much parity in those leagues this year that a team that looks good now could have two more league losses in the next two week and be out of it completely.
jcmanson wrote:Lang has playoff predictions based on how he thinks the season will play out. Will be updated weekly. This is the most thought out projection I've seen this year. Click the link to read his analysis including detailed conference by conference breakdowns.
THE BRACKET
First round
Lehigh (8-3) at Liberty (9-2)
Robert Morris (9-1) at South Carolina State (9-2)
Northern Arizona (8-3) at Chattanooga (7-4)
James Madison (7-4) at Georgia Southern (7-4)
Second round
Western Illinois (8-3) at Southeast Missouri State (9-2)
Lehigh/Liberty winner at #1 Delaware (10-1)
Villanova (7-4) at #5 Eastern Washington (9-2)
NAU/Chattanooga winner at #4 Stephen F. Austin (10-1)
Massachusetts (8-3) at Montana (8-3)
Robert Morris/SC State winner at #3 Appalachian State (9-2)
Montana State (8-3) at Wofford (9-2)
JMU/Ga. Southern winner at #2 Jacksonville State (11-0)
Wm. and Mary will be in somewhere, not JMU, I predict. Same w/Bethune-Cookman (GSU or UTC out?).
Like already said, this will be tweaked every Monday or so.
They will probably do everything in their ECB power to avoid sending Villanova and UMASS to the Big Sky.
SuperHornet's Athletics Hall of Fame includes Jacksonville State kicker Ashley Martin, the first girl to score in a Division I football game. She kicked 3 PATs in a 2001 game for J-State.
Ursus A. Horribilis wrote:Nothing to figure out. It's the way the CAA does it so there isn't a lot of figuring needed to be done.
Yup. By winning games, both home and away.
Yeah, that's what the BSC does when it gets in. Of course they lose games both home & away also just like the CAA. Once we get a few in then the odds will be better for deeper appearances.
Which BSC team would like to see go to Delaware if one does this year? I mean which one would be interesting for you to see @ Delaware other than Montana? I think depending on who gets in it would be real interesting to see NAU play you guys if they don't have an end of year drop off.
EWU would be cool to see too if TJ gets healthy.
MSU would be my 3rd choice as Delaware and MSU look very similar.
89Hen wrote:
Yup. By winning games, both home and away.
Yeah, that's what the BSC does when it gets in. Of course they lose games both home & away also just like the CAA. Once we get a few in then the odds will be better for deeper appearances.
Which BSC team would like to see go to Delaware if one does this year? I mean which one would be interesting for you to see @ Delaware other than Montana? I think depending on who gets in it would be real interesting to see NAU play you guys if they don't have an end of year drop off.
EWU would be cool to see too if TJ gets healthy.
MSU would be my 3rd choice as Delaware and MSU look very similar.
When has that happened? You would've thought the odds have dictated somewhere over the past decade that a BSC team other than Montana would finally make a deep run and it hasn't happened. I suppose if you get enough BSC teams in and then they only play each other it could happen, but we've had ample chances to see a BSC team other than Montana break through over the years and it's not happened yet.
I'd take anyone coming to Newark right now. Heck, I'd love to get some more of those MVFC teams as well. I'm rooting for as few CAA teams in the playoffs as possible - should clear the road for UD then.
Ursus A. Horribilis wrote:
Yeah, that's what the BSC does when it gets in. Of course they lose games both home & away also just like the CAA. Once we get a few in then the odds will be better for deeper appearances.
Which BSC team would like to see go to Delaware if one does this year? I mean which one would be interesting for you to see @ Delaware other than Montana? I think depending on who gets in it would be real interesting to see NAU play you guys if they don't have an end of year drop off.
EWU would be cool to see too if TJ gets healthy.
MSU would be my 3rd choice as Delaware and MSU look very similar.
When has that happened? You would've thought the odds have dictated somewhere over the past decade that a BSC team other than Montana would finally make a deep run and it hasn't happened. I suppose if you get enough BSC teams in and then they only play each other it could happen, but we've had ample chances to see a BSC team other than Montana break through over the years and it's not happened yet.
I'd take anyone coming to Newark right now. Heck, I'd love to get some more of those MVFC teams as well. I'm rooting for as few CAA teams in the playoffs as possible - should clear the road for UD then.
I don't think you'll be seeing any MVFC teams out there this year.
If UNI wins the conference, that means we finish 8-3 on a 6 game win streak...we get a home game.
If WIU wins the conference, they may be the only bid as that means UNI finishes at best 7-4 along with every team finishing between 4-7 and 7-4
Ursus A. Horribilis wrote:
Yeah, that's what the BSC does when it gets in. Of course they lose games both home & away also just like the CAA. Once we get a few in then the odds will be better for deeper appearances.
Which BSC team would like to see go to Delaware if one does this year? I mean which one would be interesting for you to see @ Delaware other than Montana? I think depending on who gets in it would be real interesting to see NAU play you guys if they don't have an end of year drop off.
EWU would be cool to see too if TJ gets healthy.
MSU would be my 3rd choice as Delaware and MSU look very similar.
When has that happened? You would've thought the odds have dictated somewhere over the past decade that a BSC team other than Montana would finally make a deep run and it hasn't happened. I suppose if you get enough BSC teams in and then they only play each other it could happen, but we've had ample chances to see a BSC team other than Montana break through over the years and it's not happened yet.
I'd take anyone coming to Newark right now. Heck, I'd love to get some more of those MVFC teams as well. I'm rooting for as few CAA teams in the playoffs as possible - should clear the road for UD then.
We normally get the conference champ in and MAYBE one other. Once every 5 or 6 yrs. we get a third if even that much. You do realize that "other than Montana" is stupid right? It doesn't matter if the conference champ changes every year or if it's the same team for many years. The proper way to look at it is comparing conference champs for each league, then runners up, etc...
The CAA has had more bullets in the playoffs. The CAA has earned that but you can't be that fuckin' stupid to think that given the nature of the playoffs that 2 teams from any given conference will be able to match 4 or 5 can you?
Ursus A. Horribilis wrote:We normally get the conference champ in and MAYBE one other. Once every 5 or 6 yrs. we get a third if even that much.... 2 teams from any given conference will be able to match 4 or 5 can you?
So we should put in 4-5 MEAC teams and watch them make the semis. Last year the Big Sky got three teams in and went 0-2 vs the CAA. Next.
Ursus A. Horribilis wrote:We normally get the conference champ in and MAYBE one other. Once every 5 or 6 yrs. we get a third if even that much.... 2 teams from any given conference will be able to match 4 or 5 can you?
So we should put in 4-5 MEAC teams and watch them make the semis. Last year the Big Sky got three teams in and went 0-2 vs the CAA. Next.
Yeah, I said that the CAA was deserving hen. I also said we only get the 3rd team once in a great while and when we do they are low ranked and go to the better teams place where they are likely to lose by extension.
I never said a god damn thing about the MEAC or that that anybody should put 4 or 5 of them in. You want to mix and match and be a retard drinking coffee then I'm fine with that.
I'm not gonna argue the sma old stupid bullshit with ya and the same "other than MT" semantics with you for the 100th time. In fact I wasn't trying to argue at all.
I was trying to see if there were any matchups you cared to see IF a couple of other teams were strong enough to make it there.
You fall immediately back into the silly shit and think I'm gonna do it with you?
