PREDICT THE BCS!!!!!!!

[youngterrier]

well with the last few weeks of the season winding down let us predict who will compete in the most bogus championship system.

I think that:
The SEC will get 2 teams in, unless LSU slips up. 2 of 3 teams will get in out of: Auburn/South Carolina/LSU
The ACC will get only 1 team in, probably Virginia Tech, if not the champions.
The Big East will only get 1 team in, which team it will be I have no clue.
The Big 12 will only get 1 team in because I just don't see a 2 loss team getting in over Boise/TCU. (either Nebraska/ Oklahoma state/ Oklahoma will get it I think)
The Big 10 will probably get 2 in, but they have the opportunity to fall flat on their face with Wisconsin still having to play Michigan and Ohio State still having Iowa and Michigan. 2 of 3 teams will get in Wisconsin/ Michigan State/ Ohio State
The Pac 10 should get 2 teams in with Stanford and Oregon
I think TCU is a lock for the Rose Bowl (because the Rose Bowl is obligated by rule to take the highest ranked non-AQ over the second place Pac 10 team), if not the national championship
Boise needs some teams to lose to get in the BCS, certain teams losing could possibly be the difference between them making the National Championship or not making the BCS at all.

For the BCS to be busted: South Carolina needs to beat Auburn. period. The pollsters won't let a team that didn't win its conference title play for a national title (see Georgia 2007) so I doubt LSU will get in. Oregon could slip up too but I don't see that happening. to remove all doubt I think the AQ from the Big 12 and Big 10 need at least 2 losses. And when I say Big 10, I mean mostly Ohio State. So hope that they and Wisconsin slip up in the next couple weeks. I just don't see a Michigan State team that lost by 31 to Iowa making the NC because they are so low in the rankings. From the Big 12, I would hope that Texas A&M wins this week and Nebraska wins the Big 12 or Oklahoma wins out and wins the Big 12. The Big East and ACC are a nonfactor in this though I think it would help Boise to have VT make the BCS.

IF the above takes place I see the 10/11 (yes I see there are 14 teams listed) following teams getting in:
Nebraska/Oklahoma (11-2)
Virginia Tech (11-2)
Michigan State (11-1)
Ohio State/Wisconsin (10-2)
Big East team
South Carolina
Auburn/LSU
Oregon (11-1)
Stanford (11-1)
TCU (12-0)
Boise State (12-0)

If TCU makes the national championship game, Boise would go to the Rose Bowl or vice verca. So my predictions for the Bowls (mainly predicting with my heart)

National championship:
TCU vs Oregon

Rose Bowl:
Michigan State vs Boise State

Fiesta Bowl:
Oklahoma/Nebraska vs LSU/Auburn

Sugar Bowl:
South Carolina vs Stanford

Orange Bowl:
Virginia tech vs Big East champ

Big 10 gets left out GO WOLVERINES/HAWKEYES!!!!!!
could change we'll see.

[SuperHornet]

Rose Bowl:
Michigan State vs Boise State

Big 10 gets left out

You're kinda being inconsistent here. Since when are the Spartans not in the Big (Ahem!) Eleven?

[youngterrier]

Rose Bowl:
Michigan State vs Boise State

Big 10 gets left out

You're kinda being inconsistent here. Since when are the Spartans not in the Big (Ahem!) Eleven?

when I say Big 10 I mean Ohio State and Wisconsin getting let in as the second team. Michigan State has the easiest remaining schedule and thus if Ohio State and Wisconsin both drop another game I doubt they will reach the BCS.

[Willie]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Boise couldn't play in the Rose Bowl since it's slated for Big Ten and Pac-10 teams.

[youngterrier]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Boise couldn't play in the Rose Bowl since it's slated for Big Ten and Pac-10 teams.

If the Pac 10 champion is playing in the National Championship, according to rule the Rose Bowl must offer to the highest ranked either-non-AQ-or overall team (which in both case is Boise/TCU) before the second place Pac 10 team

[Shellin]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Boise couldn't play in the Rose Bowl since it's slated for Big Ten and Pac-10 teams.

If the Pac 10 champion is playing in the National Championship, according to rule the Rose Bowl must offer to the highest ranked either-non-AQ-or overall team (which in both case is Boise/TCU) before the second place Pac 10 team

Indeed. There is a lot of chatter that even if Stanford wins out they will likely be left out of the BCS mix because of their small, poor travelling fan base. As far as I understand it the Fiesta Bowl (which would be the game that would be most likely to take Stanford if the Rose has to take TCU/BSU) has the last pick of BCS teams this year. They will take the Big XII champ obviously, and then the last pick will unquestionably be the Big East champion, whoever that is. That leaves Stanford hoping that either the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl decides to go after them, and the Sugar Bowl will definitely take LSU. That leaves the Big Eleven champ, Stanford, a Big Eleven runner up, Auburn (if they slip up anywhere)/South Carolina and TCU/BSU (whichever one doesn't get selected by the Rose Bowl or Championship game) to fill the final 3 spots.

[youngterrier]

if Auburn doesn't slip up in the SEC championship there is no way Boise gets in the BCS

[BlueHen86]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Boise couldn't play in the Rose Bowl since it's slated for Big Ten and Pac-10 teams.

If the Pac 10 champion is playing in the National Championship, according to rule the Rose Bowl must offer to the highest ranked either-non-AQ-or overall team (which in both case is Boise/TCU) before the second place Pac 10 team

[SuperHornet]

if Auburn doesn't slip up in the BCS championship there is no way Boise gets in the BCS

Are you saying that there's no way Oregon loses in their two remaining games or that an Oregon loss (or two) wouldn't do Boise any good?

[youngterrier]

if Auburn doesn't slip up in the SEC championship there is no way Boise gets in the BCS

Are you saying that there's no way Oregon loses in their two remaining games or that an Oregon loss (or two) wouldn't do Boise any good?

FIFA

[BlueHen86]

if Auburn doesn't slip up in the BCS championship there is no way Boise gets in the BCS

Are you saying that there's no way Oregon loses in their two remaining games or that an Oregon loss (or two) wouldn't do Boise any good?

Of all the things to question him on you missed the most obvious...

The BCS championship is played after the selection to fill the 5 BCS bowls. I assume that he meant SEC championship. Of course, there's a good chance that Auburn will lose before then.

[youngterrier]

Are you saying that there's no way Oregon loses in their two remaining games or that an Oregon loss (or two) wouldn't do Boise any good?

Of all the things to question him on you missed the most obvious...

The BCS championship is played after the selection to fill the 5 BCS bowls. I assume that he meant SEC championship. Of course, there's a good chance that Auburn will lose before then.

I gaffed, it happens

[BlueHen86]

Of all the things to question him on you missed the most obvious...

The BCS championship is played after the selection to fill the 5 BCS bowls. I assume that he meant SEC championship. Of course, there's a good chance that Auburn will lose before then.

I gaffed, it happens

Yup, to all of us. I knew what you meant, as I suspect did most people on here.

[dbackjon]

Of all the things to question him on you missed the most obvious...

The BCS championship is played after the selection to fill the 5 BCS bowls. I assume that he meant SEC championship. Of course, there's a good chance that Auburn will lose before then.

I gaffneyed, it happens

FTFY

[youngterrier]

I gaffneyed, it happens

FTFY

[bluehenbillk]

BCS Championship Game:

Oregon vs Boise St

[nwFL Griz]

On the Rose Bowl rule, it does not include highest ranked team. The rule is:

For the years 2011-2014, the first year in which either the Pac10 or Big10 champ goes to the title game, and there is a Non-AQ that receives an AQ, the Rose Bowl must select that non-AQ team.

A Non-AQ receives an AQ by:

A. Being ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Being ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

Also, the order of selection is: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.

Based on that:

BCS: Oregon v Boise St (BSU already closed the gap on TCU, and will seal it by beating Nevada)

Rose: TCU v Wisconsin

Sugar: S. Car v Ohio St

Orange: VaTech v LSU

Fiesta: Nebraska v Pitt

EDIT: I'm not sure the Rose Bowl rule would apply if a Non-AQ is in the title game, but I went with it anyway. BCS rules don't say, either way.

[youngterrier]

With Nebraska losing, it's safe to say that Big 12 will be a one team qualifier conference, especially if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma state next week (that wouldn't be an upset IMO).
The following conferences I think will get this ammount of teams
ACC:1 team
Big East: 1 team
Big 12: 1 team
Big 10: 2 teams (probably)
SEC: 2 teams (if LSU beats Arkansas)
Pac 10: 2 teams

The only way a non-AQ gets in the NC game is if Auburn loses in the SEC championship. That is the only way. 1 non-AQ team I think will get into the Rose Bowl at least. If LSU loses this week and 2 of Ohio State/Wisconsin/Michigan State loses, the chance for both TCU and Boise to make the BCS goes way up. Stanford losing would also help

[nwFL Griz]

With Nebraska losing, it's safe to say that Big 12 will be a one team qualifier conference, especially if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma state next week (that wouldn't be an upset IMO).
The following conferences I think will get this ammount of teams
ACC:1 team
Big East: 1 team
Big 12: 1 team
Big 10: 2 teams (probably)
SEC: 2 teams (if LSU beats Arkansas)
Pac 10: 2 teams

The only way a non-AQ gets in the NC game is if Auburn loses in the SEC championship. That is the only way. 1 non-AQ team I think will get into the Rose Bowl at least. If LSU loses this week and 2 of Ohio State/Wisconsin/Michigan State loses, the chance for both TCU and Boise to make the BCS goes way up. Stanford losing would also help

What happens when Auburn loses to Alabama? (Because they will)

Also, Pac-10 is one bid league (unless somehow Stanford wins the Pac-10). If Oregon wins the Pac-10, Stanford gets bypassed, because they don't travel well and they are not a huge tv draw.

Nothing that happened yesterday changed any of my predictions. Only thing that might change it, is if Ark beats LSU (which is very likely, IMO).

[youngterrier]

With Nebraska losing, it's safe to say that Big 12 will be a one team qualifier conference, especially if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma state next week (that wouldn't be an upset IMO).
The following conferences I think will get this ammount of teams
ACC:1 team
Big East: 1 team
Big 12: 1 team
Big 10: 2 teams (probably)
SEC: 2 teams (if LSU beats Arkansas)
Pac 10: 2 teams

The only way a non-AQ gets in the NC game is if Auburn loses in the SEC championship. That is the only way. 1 non-AQ team I think will get into the Rose Bowl at least. If LSU loses this week and 2 of Ohio State/Wisconsin/Michigan State loses, the chance for both TCU and Boise to make the BCS goes way up. Stanford losing would also help

What happens when Auburn loses to Alabama? (Because they will)

Also, Pac-10 is one bid league (unless somehow Stanford wins the Pac-10). If Oregon wins the Pac-10, Stanford gets bypassed, because they don't travel well and they are not a huge tv draw.

Nothing that happened yesterday changed any of my predictions. Only thing that might change it, is if Ark beats LSU (which is very likely, IMO).

it's been said many times by the talking heads that a one-loss SEC champ will go to the national title game. thus the masses will agree and the polls will help Auburn As for Stanford, the only way they get booted out is if Auburn loses and Boise/TCU plays for the national championship. The Rose Bowl will take one of the two non-AQs. Stanford may be more attractive than the non-AQ's because of a 11-1 record with a tougher schedule with only 1 loss to a team playing in the national championship

[nwFL Griz]

What happens when Auburn loses to Alabama? (Because they will)

Also, Pac-10 is one bid league (unless somehow Stanford wins the Pac-10). If Oregon wins the Pac-10, Stanford gets bypassed, because they don't travel well and they are not a huge tv draw.

Nothing that happened yesterday changed any of my predictions. Only thing that might change it, is if Ark beats LSU (which is very likely, IMO).

it's been said many times by the talking heads that a one-loss SEC champ will go to the national title game. thus the masses will agree and the polls will help Auburn As for Stanford, the only way they get booted out is if Auburn loses and Boise/TCU plays for the national championship. The Rose Bowl will take one of the two non-AQs. Stanford may be more attractive than the non-AQ's because of a 11-1 record with a tougher schedule with only 1 loss to a team playing in the national championship

I'll agree that Auburn would still likely go to the NCG, as long as they still win the SEC championship game. Human bias being what it is.

As for Stanford, I think the only way they get a bid is if TCU stays ahead of Boise and VaTech wins the ACC. Then the Orange bowl would want to avoid a BSU/VaTech rematch (maybe). If BSU ends up in the Rose Bowl then Stanford gets bypassed in favor of TCU. Remember, once the NCG selections and AQs are made, the at-larges are based on things like ticket sales and tv ratings, both of which Stanford stink at, especially all the way out in Miami.

[youngterrier]

With the fall of Boise and the victories of other teams, the BCS outlook has gotten far more clearer. With Oklahoma State losing the Big 12 will most certainly be a one-bid league because I don't see a 2nd and 3rd place team out of that conference being ahead of a red-hot Arkansas team.

The following teams have locked up a BCS bid:
Auburn
Oregon
Stanford
TCU
Wisconsin*
Ohio State*
*not official but pretty much locked up

The Big 12, Big East, and ACC will need to find their autobid. Out of the SEC Arkansas or South Carolina will get an at-large bid.

Interesting scenario: If SC beats Auburn; TCU will either A) have a shot at the national title game against Oregon or B) get leaped frogged by Wisconsin and will be forced to play the Rose Bowl against Murder's row Ohio State

Right Now I predict

Title Game
Oregon vs Auburn

Sugar Bowl
Arkansas vs Ohio State

Rose Bowl
TCU vs Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl
Connecticut/ West Virginia vs Nebraska/Oklahoma

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech/FSU vs Stanford

[SuperHornet]

Title Game
Oregon vs TCU

Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs Ohio State (I presume that with TCU going to the Title Game, Auburn gets the higher SEC B(C)$ game.)

Rose Bowl
Stanford vs Wisconsin (Stanford moves back into the Rose for a "normal" matchup.)

Fiesta Bowl
West Virginia vs Nebraska (No way UCONN gets in over WV. Nebraska's better than OK.)

Orange Bowl
FSU vs Arkansas (I'm presuming the Orange will go with the closest thing they can get to a local team. Arkansas gets the remaining spot. Could be LSU, though.)

[youngterrier]

Title Game
Oregon vs TCU

Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs Ohio State (I presume that with TCU going to the Title Game, Auburn gets the higher SEC B(C)$ game.)

Rose Bowl
Stanford vs Wisconsin (Stanford moves back into the Rose for a "normal" matchup.)

Fiesta Bowl
West Virginia vs Nebraska (No way UCONN gets in over WV. Nebraska's better than OK.)

Orange Bowl
FSU vs Arkansas (I'm presuming the Orange will go with the closest thing they can get to a local team. Arkansas gets the remaining spot. Could be LSU, though[.)

The above is so inaccurate it's not funny. UConn wins Saturday and they get the autobid. period.

LSU won't get in over Arkansas after losing to them, they will be behind in the standings, polls, and rankings. Arkansas will probably be ranked ahead of them tomorrow. No way TCU jumps undefeated SEC champion Auburn. It just won't happen. The only way they jump Auburn at all is if South Carolina beats them, in which case SC gets the autobid, Auburn gets the at-large, and Arkansas is left out in the cold. Oklahoma is better than OK too, so I don't know who to call in that game though my gut says the black shirts

[tampajag]

Title Game
Oregon vs TCU

Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs Ohio State (I presume that with TCU going to the Title Game, Auburn gets the higher SEC B(C)$ game.)

Rose Bowl
Stanford vs Wisconsin (Stanford moves back into the Rose for a "normal" matchup.)

Fiesta Bowl
West Virginia vs Nebraska (No way UCONN gets in over WV. Nebraska's better than OK.)

Orange Bowl
FSU vs Arkansas (I'm presuming the Orange will go with the closest thing they can get to a local team. Arkansas gets the remaining spot. Could be LSU, though.)