Villanova football idea is dead

[FargoBison]

You dont understand that because you have a large stadium in a small market. We have a small stadium in a large market.

Fargo @92K
Missoula @67K

Not that it makes a difference but....

Fargo 105,549(MSA 208,777)
Missoula 66,788(MSA 109,299)

And Clenzy... Cedar Falls 39,260 but Cantonsville is at 41,567

[JBB]

Thanks for substituting for me in my absence Fargo Bison.

I see a Montana fan has expanded their geographic area to drum up 150,000 or so. The FM Metro is a small contiguous population center. Most people consider it all one city. If you want to expand out to include the entire Red River Valley and Hwy 94 corridor the 208,000 will be pushing 325,000. I know fans from all over the state travel to Fargo and the Prestigious Fargo Dome for BISON Football.

NDSU has FBS market written all over it. FBS football in Fargo is inevitable. A program will almost certainly expand to maximize its market potential. Nova may be considering this too but they have road blocks including facilities and market share. NDSU has 100% of the football market share here.

[Thundering Herd]

Thanks for substituting for me in my absence Fargo Bison.

I see a Montana fan has expanded their geographic area to drum up 150,000 or so. The FM Metro is a small contiguous population center. Most people consider it all one city. If you want to expand out to include the entire Red River Valley and Hwy 94 corridor the 208,000 will be pushing 325,000. I know fans from all over the state travel to Fargo and the Prestigious Fargo Dome for BISON Football.

NDSU has FBS market written all over it. FBS football in Fargo is inevitable. A program will almost certainly expand to maximize its market potential. Nova may be considering this too but they have road blocks including facilities and market share. NDSU has 100% of the football market share here.

In Villanova's case, there are already stadiums that are at a FBS level in Philadelphia. Even at Montana and App St, if or when either move up, their stadiums have potential or are at a small FBS size. The same cannot be said at NDSU. Villanova to the Big East is a no brainer to me if they can keep it going financially.

I still want them to stay though

[GannonFan]

Thanks for substituting for me in my absence Fargo Bison.

I see a Montana fan has expanded their geographic area to drum up 150,000 or so. The FM Metro is a small contiguous population center. Most people consider it all one city. If you want to expand out to include the entire Red River Valley and Hwy 94 corridor the 208,000 will be pushing 325,000. I know fans from all over the state travel to Fargo and the Prestigious Fargo Dome for BISON Football.

NDSU has FBS market written all over it. FBS football in Fargo is inevitable. A program will almost certainly expand to maximize its market potential. Nova may be considering this too but they have road blocks including facilities and market share. NDSU has 100% of the football market share here.

In Villanova's case, there are already stadiums that are at a FBS level in Philadelphia. Even at Montana and App St, if or when either move up, their stadiums have potential or are at a small FBS size. The same cannot be said at NDSU. Villanova to the Big East is a no brainer to me if they can keep it going financially.

I still want them to stay though

What stadiums? The Linc is a no go as they can't get it and won't ever get it (again, the Eagles don't even like Temple being there but they grudgingly allow Temple to play since they are a city school (nova isn't) and the city put up a ton of money to build the place, although the Eagles are the owner - oh, and they still charge Temple a bundle to play there). Franklin Field is also a no go as the Big East won't let a team play on someone else's campus. PPL Park is the only stadium option and at 20k it might be the reason they don't move.

[andy7171]

Fargo @92K
Missoula @67K

Not that it makes a difference but....

Fargo 105,549(MSA 208,777)
Missoula 66,788(MSA 109,299)

And Clenzy... Cedar Falls 39,260 but Cantonsville is at 41,567

Catonsville's MSA has 2.7M though. Is UMBC a FBS market in waiting? Hell, 15 miles around the beltway Towson is twice the size of Catonsville and has a FCS team already and only draws 7K a game. Big market, small stadium ain't all it's cracked up to be.

[Franks Tanks]

Not that it makes a difference but....

Fargo 105,549(MSA 208,777)
Missoula 66,788(MSA 109,299)

And Clenzy... Cedar Falls 39,260 but Cantonsville is at 41,567

Catonsville's MSA has 2.7M though. Is UMBC a FBS market in waiting? Hell, 15 miles around the beltway Towson is twice the size of Catonsville and has a FCS team already and only draws 7K a game. Big market, small stadium ain't all it's cracked up to be.

Andy, you are discounting the fact that their is nothing else to do in North Dakota or Montana beside drink and shot at things.

[T-Dog]

I feel dumber reading this topic.

[FargoBison]

Not that it makes a difference but....

Fargo 105,549(MSA 208,777)
Missoula 66,788(MSA 109,299)

And Clenzy... Cedar Falls 39,260 but Cantonsville is at 41,567

Catonsville's MSA has 2.7M though. Is UMBC a FBS market in waiting? Hell, 15 miles around the beltway Towson is twice the size of Catonsville and has a FCS team already and only draws 7K a game. Big market, small stadium ain't all it's cracked up to be.

Agreed, I don't think market size means anything unless a school has a legit following in the market.

[Skjellyfetti]

I don't think market size means anything unless a school has a legit following in the market.

Not true. Simply expanding to a bigger market is a huge, huge plus.

The Big East wanted TCU... not because they have a strong following in the Dallas-Fort Worth market... but, simply because they are a strong team that exists in the DFW market. TCU isn't in the top-5 most popular college football teams in DFW.

Next time the Big East negotiates a television contract with ESPN or whoever... they can now say, "Hey, we just expanded into the DFW market, one of the laregest television markets in the country. We want more money!"

[49RFootballNow]

TV market's affect on a school's value to a conference is a chicken or egg argument. Does a school need a big following in their market before they can claim the market for TV contract purposes? Or does putting a team on TV that doesn't own the market give them a better chance to expand their fanbase and add value to future TV contracts?

The Big East has for the last few times gone with the latter, and they're still well paid.

Conferences can claim any market they have a presence in, whether its the 1st team in the market or the 10th team. Broadcasters only worry about selling advertisement, so they also care relatively little about the specific team's following in a market, they'll still claim that market in their broadcast "sphere of influence". As long as the Nielsen Ratings for them in that market are good 24/7, and most sports broadcasters offer a wide range of viewing offerings to achieve this, then the broadcaster is usually happy with the results.

Advertiser are the ones who have a vested interest in how many TVs they reach, and most national advertisers have broad blanket advertisement deals with networks so ANY market penetration is good to them. Local broadcasters on the otherhand have a distinct interest in getting on TV in their markets and usually also think any broadcast advertisement is a great thing.

[FargoBison]

I don't think market size means anything unless a school has a legit following in the market.

Not true. Simply expanding to a bigger market is a huge, huge plus.

The Big East wanted TCU... not because they have a strong following in the Dallas-Fort Worth market... but, simply because they are a strong team that exists in the DFW market. TCU isn't in the top-5 most popular college football teams in DFW.

Next time the Big East negotiates a television contract with ESPN or whoever... they can now say, "Hey, we just expanded into the DFW market, one of the laregest television markets in the country. We want more money!"

I'd say TCU football has a legit following in their market,they aren't king but I wouldn't call them an afterthought like say San Jose State. If it was all about market size, San Jose St would be in the MWC right now.

[clenz]

Not that it makes a difference but....

Fargo 105,549(MSA 208,777)
Missoula 66,788(MSA 109,299)

And Clenzy... Cedar Falls 39,260 but Cantonsville is at 41,567

Catonsville's MSA has 2.7M though. Is UMBC a FBS market in waiting? Hell, 15 miles around the beltway Towson is twice the size of Catonsville and has a FCS team already and only draws 7K a game. Big market, small stadium ain't all it's cracked up to be.

Oh yeah the Iowa MSA is 3 million

[collegesportsinfo]

someone asked where they'll play. Temple has the Linc until 2017. Nova would play at the new MLS soccer stadium. Penn plays a Franklin field don't they?

Which is a problem in itself. It's too small. Even with the proposed additional seating, coaches have gone public saying that stadium won't work and that they'd need bigger facilities to be in the BE.

[49RFootballNow]

someone asked where they'll play. Temple has the Linc until 2017. Nova would play at the new MLS soccer stadium. Penn plays a Franklin field don't they?

Which is a problem in itself. It's too small. Even with the proposed additional seating, coaches have gone public saying that stadium won't work and that they'd need bigger facilities to be in the BE.

Then Nova is lucky that the university president's vote on conference members and not the coaches.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Thanks for substituting for me in my absence Fargo Bison.

I see a Montana fan has expanded their geographic area to drum up 150,000 or so. The FM Metro is a small contiguous population center. Most people consider it all one city. If you want to expand out to include the entire Red River Valley and Hwy 94 corridor the 208,000 will be pushing 325,000. I know fans from all over the state travel to Fargo and the Prestigious Fargo Dome for BISON Football.

NDSU has FBS market written all over it. FBS football in Fargo is inevitable. A program will almost certainly expand to maximize its market potential. Nova may be considering this too but they have road blocks including facilities and market share. NDSU has 100% of the football market share here.

Must be very popular with all those people as you said then but the lack of selling out that little 15,000 seater doesn't seem to jive with your facts about how great it is.

I gotta admit it would be nice to be able to walk up on game day and buy some tickets. I'm sure NDSU is just a cherry waiting to be plucked by one of these fledgling FBS conferences...and yet I haven't heard of them being courted real hard. That's kind of odd?

You're in the right place based on what you got going on there right now. Some good NDSU fans can see that, you can't.

[JBB]

Last season NDSU football filled the Prestigious Venue to 84% capacity week in and week out.

The attendance boost from moving from D2 was huge, from memory Id say attendance increased 25% year in year out. Moving to FBS would have the same affect.

NDSU moved into D1 without a conference. We started the GWC. Things worked out. To make the move to FBS we will need a spot. I dont think stadium talk will start in ernest until season ticket sales are aroung 75% of capacity. We are running close to 60% now and the fun is just starting.

Problem with the good bison fans is their vision. They have none. We are in a good spot. I have developed real estate from cornfield to neighborhood. If you look at today you would never build a thing. You have to see tomorrow. Some good olks in the FCS seem to resent talk of moving into the FBS. In Fargo it is an opportunity waiting to ripen. You can bet it is on the planning table at NDSU. In fact I know it is from first hand discussions.

Villanova has some challenges in front of them if they are going to make the move. Its a nice advantage to have a BCS conference come calling but they may not be ready and the competition for them is fierce. The BISON on the other hand are the competition in this market.

[JBB]

Thanks for substituting for me in my absence Fargo Bison.

I see a Montana fan has expanded their geographic area to drum up 150,000 or so. The FM Metro is a small contiguous population center. Most people consider it all one city. If you want to expand out to include the entire Red River Valley and Hwy 94 corridor the 208,000 will be pushing 325,000. I know fans from all over the state travel to Fargo and the Prestigious Fargo Dome for BISON Football.

NDSU has FBS market written all over it. FBS football in Fargo is inevitable. A program will almost certainly expand to maximize its market potential. Nova may be considering this too but they have road blocks including facilities and market share. NDSU has 100% of the football market share here.

In Villanova's case, there are already stadiums that are at a FBS level in Philadelphia. Even at Montana and App St, if or when either move up, their stadiums have potential or are at a small FBS size. The same cannot be said at NDSU. Villanova to the Big East is a no brainer to me if they can keep it going financially.

I still want them to stay though

Montana and App State really have no revenue upside. Villanova, similar to NDSUs situation, have that upside. They will need a larger stadium and can expect nice conference payouts. If a program cant reasonably expect to grow revenues where is the money coming from to cover the new expenses, provided they arent running a huge surplus now? In NDSUs case an additional 10 -15,000 seats and expanded media coverage represents a lot of new money to handle the new expenses.

Ps. I want them to stay too.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

The support sounds overwhelming. I recant what I said.

Oh wait you did say...

"Red River Valley and Hwy 94 corridor the 208,000 will be pushing 325,000. I know fans from all over the state travel to Fargo and the Prestigious Fargo Dome for BISON Football."

Let's split the difference of your two numbers, ah hell let's just guess it's at 100K less than where it's gonna be and call it 225,000.

19,000 (.84) =15,960

15,960/225,000= 0.0709333333

You are at just over 7% of your area? No waiting for tickets?

Not exactly the massive support I had first assumed you were talking about. Are you thinking that this number is gonna climb to around 15-20% of present population? That seems like good support for the program right? You'd at least want to be able to get to around App #'s.

It's good that all those people are traveling from all over the states to see NDSU because I'd hate to see the number if they were not.

Good stuff.

[Thundering Herd]

The support sounds overwhelming. I recant what I said.

Oh wait you did say...

"Red River Valley and Hwy 94 corridor the 208,000 will be pushing 325,000. I know fans from all over the state travel to Fargo and the Prestigious Fargo Dome for BISON Football."

Let's split the difference of your two numbers, ah hell let's just guess it's at 100K less than where it's gonna be and call it 225,000.

19,000 (.84) =15,960

15,960/225,000= 0.0709333333

You are at just over 7% of your area? No waiting for tickets?

Not exactly the massive support I had first assumed you were talking about. Are you thinking that this number is gonna climb to around 15-20% of present population? That seems like good support for the program right? You'd at least want to be able to get to around App #'s.

It's good that all those people are traveling from all over the states to see NDSU because I'd hate to see the number if they were not.

Good stuff.

I didn't do the extensive math you did, but if you divide tickets sales by the population of the city the school is in, Villanova comes out much smaller than 7%

[JBB]

7% is about as good as it gets with this stadium. 8% is the upper limit.

The Prestigious Fargo Dome is now at 90% of capacity with a 7% market penetration playing FCS competition. What I am seeing is a tremendous amount of untapped potential with virtually no competition.

Using your figures, with a market penetration of 16%, similar to Montana, the average attendance in Fargo is 37,500. We are nearing 50% of that mark now with FCS competition.

You see, Montana is in a tough spot. Not much upside.

NDSU is in a sweet spot. Lots of upside.

[LeadBolt]

Any news on Villanova?

[collegesportsinfo]

I'm glad someone finally brought up "market penetration" since it's the only thing that matters when discussing markets.

There's a few way of looking at it:

At times, you have a "market" that has 3-4 different schools. Say Miami. Excluding the obvious UF/FSU alums, UMiami is at the top. But say UMiami left for the SEC. It's not like the ACC is going to replace them with FIU or FAU just because they are in the Miami DMA. Why? Because neither school has any penetration in that market (and little hope to).

But even in the case when there is only 1 school in a market, it's not a lock that there is a proven path for success. Norfolk is a large market. And ODU has FBS hopes. But are they a lock to be an FBS power just because they are in Norfolk? Will they be bigger than UVa and VA Tech? In the Bay Area, you have a alrge city in San Jose, where you'll find San Jose St. Yet they have little hope, primarily because they have nearby competition. Arkansas-Little Rock is in the state capital, but they don't even have a football team. If there was a proven system, UALR woudl have added football already.

So like so many schools, NDSU does have potential. But there is no proof that anything they do would work. They could build new arenas and stadiums, but that doesn't mean that that population is going to flock to those events. The fans can be optimistic, but if it were a given, the school would have fast-tracked a move already. But remember, it wasn't long ago that NDSU was D2, not even FCS.

As for Montana, they follow the StateU model. Sure, Missoula isn't huge. But you already have Montana fans all over the state. It's similar to Alabama, but not anywhere near the volume. But even they have their own questions about potential. They had/have a good opportunity to upgrade to the WAC, potentially dominate, and state their case for the MWC a few years down the road. Montana wants to be in the MWC, but doesn't seem to be eager at following the path they need to: upgrade, find success in the WAC, prove to be worthy of a MWC invite.

So really, with all this talk, it's almost moot. Where on earth is NDSU going to ever play? They have 1 option now and likely forever: the WAC. Maybe the MAC would be an option, but they are close to becoming a 14 team league. So despite any advantages people want to post about NDSU...the lack of conference options hurts them much more than say Montana, App St., etc.

[Thundering Herd]

I'm glad someone finally brought up "market penetration" since it's the only thing that matters when discussing markets.

There's a few way of looking at it:

At times, you have a "market" that has 3-4 different schools. Say Miami. Excluding the obvious UF/FSU alums, UMiami is at the top. But say UMiami left for the SEC. It's not like the ACC is going to replace them with FIU or FAU just because they are in the Miami DMA. Why? Because neither school has any penetration in that market (and little hope to).

But even in the case when there is only 1 school in a market, it's not a lock that there is a proven path for success. Norfolk is a large market. And ODU has FBS hopes. But are they a lock to be an FBS power just because they are in Norfolk? Will they be bigger than UVa and VA Tech? In the Bay Area, you have a alrge city in San Jose, where you'll find San Jose St. Yet they have little hope, primarily because they have nearby competition. Arkansas-Little Rock is in the state capital, but they don't even have a football team. If there was a proven system, UALR woudl have added football already.

So like so many schools, NDSU does have potential. But there is no proof that anything they do would work. They could build new arenas and stadiums, but that doesn't mean that that population is going to flock to those events. The fans can be optimistic, but if it were a given, the school would have fast-tracked a move already. But remember, it wasn't long ago that NDSU was D2, not even FCS.

As for Montana, they follow the StateU model. Sure, Missoula isn't huge. But you already have Montana fans all over the state. It's similar to Alabama, but not anywhere near the volume. But even they have their own questions about potential. They had/have a good opportunity to upgrade to the WAC, potentially dominate, and state their case for the MWC a few years down the road. Montana wants to be in the MWC, but doesn't seem to be eager at following the path they need to: upgrade, find success in the WAC, prove to be worthy of a MWC invite.

So really, with all this talk, it's almost moot. Where on earth is NDSU going to ever play? They have 1 option now and likely forever: the WAC. Maybe the MAC would be an option, but they are close to becoming a 14 team league. So despite any advantages people want to post about NDSU...the lack of conference options hurts them much more than say Montana, App St., etc.

Agreed

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Don't kid yourself - the Fargo "market" includes Grand Forks... It also includes a HUGE number UND grads, MSUM grads and Concorida grads... they don't give a single shit about NDSU and never will.

[FargoBison]

Don't kid yourself - the Fargo "market" includes Grand Forks... It also includes a HUGE number UND grads, MSUM grads and Concorida grads... they don't give a single shit about NDSU and never will.

Don't know if I'd say that...I know some that do care and go to games. Yes, even UND fans.

NDSU's major issue is hunting and harvesting. Both cut into attendance after homecoming, especially if the team isn't great. People flock to the early season home games, tailgating has gotten way bigger than I think anyone ever thought it would.