Villanova football idea is dead

[bluehenbillk]

Regardless of where the football idea is - Villanova's basketball team is officially dead.

[dbackjon]

Regardless of where the football idea is - Villanova's basketball team is officially dead.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

The support sounds overwhelming. I recant what I said.

Oh wait you did say...

"Red River Valley and Hwy 94 corridor the 208,000 will be pushing 325,000. I know fans from all over the state travel to Fargo and the Prestigious Fargo Dome for BISON Football."

Let's split the difference of your two numbers, ah hell let's just guess it's at 100K less than where it's gonna be and call it 225,000.

19,000 (.84) =15,960

15,960/225,000= 0.0709333333

You are at just over 7% of your area? No waiting for tickets?

Not exactly the massive support I had first assumed you were talking about. Are you thinking that this number is gonna climb to around 15-20% of present population? That seems like good support for the program right? You'd at least want to be able to get to around App #'s.

It's good that all those people are traveling from all over the states to see NDSU because I'd hate to see the number if they were not.

Good stuff.

I didn't do the extensive math you did, but if you divide tickets sales by the population of the city the school is in, Villanova comes out much smaller than 7%

Absolutely correct. The thing is in the Villanova situation a pauper is being given the chance to live in one of the palaces and that is why I could see them taking that opportunity.

The options for NDSU are limited to non palaces. So even if they are a workhorse and had the overinflated value that JBB see's them as having they would still not be in the revenue making position that a Villanova would be.

Now if NDSU were in Villanova's shoes then I would believe all the hope & hype that JBB puts out. Hell I'd back him to the hilt about the upside of the deal. NDSU is not however in that spot, they are in a lesser spot right now.

NDSU kills Villanova for football aspects on every measure. If NDSU were located in Philadelphia with an invite like Villanova has gotten then not taking that would be an insane move as well.

JBB makes a ill thought out point that MT is in the same lackluster situation as NDSU as far as this goes. NO SHIT! It's exactly what I've been saying for years in every MT should move up thread out there so trying to use it against me in this argument is just stupid. But even with that said MT at least sells out almost every game. We have more season ticket holders than NDSU has seats in there stadium, and there is a waiting list of a few more thousand to even get season tickets. That's the point that NDSU is should probably worry about getting to before saying that the move up is what will generate all the new fans. I've shown in other threads that a move up may have a bump in attendance (slight) for teams like Marshall & others but their attendance at present is about the same as it was when they left FCS.

[JBB]

I appreciate what Quinn has to say. He recognizes the potential and has defined the challenges.

The big roadblock is the facilities. Not much different than Nova.

In Fargo, with the right situation the facilities would appear. A Big 12 invite would result in a properly scaled stadium and practice facility. Iowa State is in the Big 12. Ames is a town of 25.000 or so. Wyoming is in the MWC.

The Big 12 is the only conference that would make sense for NDSU. Many of those schools are our natural rivals. It seems unlikely now but baby things change. Playing in the Big 12 would certainly turn the potential, that we all agree is there, into reality.

I'm not sure how things would pan out in the MAC or WAC. Quinn makes another correct insight though. Those conferences could act as stepping stones.

Nova has BCS invite. Nothing is out of the question.

[SJHornet]

The Big 12 is the only conference that would make sense for NDSU. Many of those schools are our natural rivals. It seems unlikely now but baby things change. Playing in the Big 12 would certainly turn the potential, that we all agree is there, into reality.

Once Texas, A&M, The Oklahoma twins, Missouri and Kansas abandon the conference, I'm pretty sure NDSU will actually be a realistic expansion cantidate!

[JBB]

Conference shuffling is not done yet, and you are so right. A lots going to happen in the next five years or so. The FCS is kind of imploding. A lot of the schools that make it worthwhile to play football in this division are leaving. Losing Nova will be a blow and how about Appy State? Montana is talking about it too. Here is a list I saw on BV:

Texas State (leaving)
Jacksonville State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Sam Houston State
James Madison
Lamar
Massachusetts

NDSU came into the FCS with a long term plan to play FBS football. We wont get a chance like Nova but we might be able to get into a stepping stone conference as Quinn has suggested for Montana. That would help get our facilities in place. The prospect of playing OOC games against Big 12 and Big 10 opponents would be a huge deal in Fargo and certainly get a stadium built. The Fabulous Fargo Dome has 30 million in the bank.

An invite to the Big 12 would do the trick too. Nova isnt ready for the BE but presumably the invite will be the catalyst for them to put their ship in order. A Big 12 invite for NDSU would have a bigger impact in this market than the impact for Nova with the BE invite.

In a lot of ways the FCS is turning into D2 as it was in the 60s & 70s. For the schools without vision or a plan things will stay the same. For programs with a huge upside like Nova and NDSU things will not stay the same.

[CAA Flagship]

Regardless of where the football idea is - Villanova's basketball team is officially dead.

Courtesy of the CAA. Ironic?

[collegesportsinfo]

The Big 12 is the only conference that would make sense for NDSU. Many of those schools are our natural rivals. It seems unlikely now but baby things change. Playing in the Big 12 would certainly turn the potential, that we all agree is there, into reality.

Once Texas, A&M, The Oklahoma twins, Missouri and Kansas abandon the conference, I'm pretty sure NDSU will actually be a realistic expansion cantidate!

Sadly for NDSU, it will take something even bigger for that to happen.

What we saw last summer was the Big 12 almost come to an end. But when you look at what would have been the "left overs" of the big 12 (Baylor, Iowa St, Missouri, Kansas and KSU) even those schools have a number of options. CUSA was willing to bring in all 5 if need be. The MWC too. And even the Big East felt it out (note that it appeared that the 4 state schools were set to remain together with Baylor set for CUSA had the Pac-16 happened).

And if it happened again (as a result of the Big 12 falling far below the $20million in revenue per school), these same stories could be revisited. But this time, it gets more interesting. There's no reason to think that if given the opportunity, the Big East would still bring in those schools...likely splitting from the non-football schools:
East: Uconn, Syracuse, Rutgers, *Villanova, Pitt, WVU, USF (UCF if VU passes)
West: Cincy, Louisville, Iowa St., Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St, TCU

And we know the Big Ten is out of the question for NDSU.

So really, the only hope NDSU has is the MAC...or the WAC. Neither is a homerun. It's just a tough region for NDSU (or any Dakota school) to be...just not an easy regional fit that would bring them in.

The longshot hope would be that enough schools in the region also upgrade and that the NCAA changes it's standards to permit new FBS conferences being formed with FCS schools. But since the FCS conferences were the ones to push the legislation through, that is doubtful.

[JBB]

Thats certainly a reasonable point that illustrates the problems NDSU might have in fully maximizing its market potential.

As we develop relationships with those schools, we travel to Iowa State again year after next and beat The Jayhawks last year, things could change in our favor. However Quinns points are certainly more representative of the common wisdom today.

Not knowing the ins and outs of the Big East and what motivates them to invite Villanova, is it possible they would pull a UNO, accept the invite and drop football? On paper their program and facilities look less like a BCS team than NDSUs.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Thats certainly a reasonable point that illustrates the problems NDSU might have in fully maximizing its market potential.

As we develop relationships with those schools, we travel to Iowa State again year after next and beat The Jayhawks last year, things could change in our favor. However Quinns points are certainly more representative of the common wisdom today.

Not knowing the ins and outs of the Big East and what motivates them to invite Villanova, is it possible they would pull a UNO, accept the invite and drop football? On paper their program and facilities look less like a BCS team than NDSUs.

Nova is already an all-sports (minus football) member of the BE...

[JBB]

Thanks. I didnt know that. As you may have guessed Im football only.

[JBB]

Question:

Villanova averaged 8,573/game last year. This wouldnt even get tham in the top 10 in D2. The NCAA has a 15,000/game requirement for the FBS. Is this move even feasible?

[Fresno St. Alum]

Question:

Villanova averaged 8,573/game last year. This wouldnt even get tham in the top 10 in D2. The NCAA has a 15,000/game requirement for the FBS. Is this move even feasible?

It's required to have 15K seat stadium. They never applied the 17K attendance rule. NMSU doesn't hit it. Idaho and SJSU have trouble hitting. The reason is the NCAA doesn't want to kick a school out of a conf leaving them to scramble to find another school. That was also the reason they got rid of 6 core for 5 year rule. With all of the schools switching. If they didn't change it the WAC woulda lost their AQ.

[JBB]

It still seems like a stretch to me. The avg attendance in the FBS is over 45,000. I would expect an attendance boost for Nova as they resume football competition in their BB all sports league but it seems like a huge move especially when folks doubt the legitimacy of NDSUs FBS credentials. The BISON draw almost twice as many fans as Nova per game and well over twice as many on a seasonal basis.

[clenz]

I appreciate what Quinn has to say. He recognizes the potential and has defined the challenges.

The big roadblock is the facilities. Not much different than Nova.

In Fargo, with the right situation the facilities would appear. A Big 12 invite would result in a properly scaled stadium and practice facility. Iowa State is in the Big 12. Ames is a town of 25.000 or so. Wyoming is in the MWC.

The Big 12 is the only conference that would make sense for NDSU. Many of those schools are our natural rivals. It seems unlikely now but baby things change. Playing in the Big 12 would certainly turn the potential, that we all agree is there, into reality.

I'm not sure how things would pan out in the MAC or WAC. Quinn makes another correct insight though. Those conferences could act as stepping stones.

Nova has BCS invite. Nothing is out of the question.

Someone needed to call this out. Ames is much closer to 60K than 25K....hell, it is closer to 75K than it is to 25K. Oh, and not to mention it is about a 20 minute drive up the interstate from the largest city in Iowa, Des Moines. If you factor in the Des Moines, Ames, Ankeny metro area (all within 20 minutes of each other) you are pushing a million people, or about 1/3rd of the state

[clenz]

It still seems like a stretch to me. The avg attendance in the FBS is over 45,000. I would expect an attendance boost for Nova as they resume football competition in their BB all sports league but it seems like a huge move especially when folks doubt the legitimacy of NDSUs FBS credentials. The BISON draw almost twice as many fans as Nova per game and well over twice as many on a seasonal basis.

The only reason the average attendance is that high is because the SEC schools - sans Missisippi State and Vandy all draw between 90-100K per game and in the B10 you have Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State that draw over 100K per game (Michigan over 110K) and now Nebraska that is over 80k.

If not for about 10 schools in the SEC and Big 10 (along with Texas, USC, and Oklahoma) that average would be about 20K

[JBB]

Iowa State enrollment of about 28,000 is included in your number Clenz. Ames is not a big town. They have a stadium that is about twice the size of the University and it sells out. With that in mind Villanova's enrollment of about 10,000 should justify at a minimum a 20,000 seat stadium. The more I look at Nova the more I think they are woefully unprepared to make this move, or with the glass half full, the more I think NDSU is a little behind the curve on the FBS move.

Your point on average attendance is well taken but Nova isnt even at 50% of the 20,000 adjusted avg. you are citing, (which according to the Good Mans post below is not valid).

[jcf5445]

It still seems like a stretch to me. The avg attendance in the FBS is over 45,000. I would expect an attendance boost for Nova as they resume football competition in their BB all sports league but it seems like a huge move especially when folks doubt the legitimacy of NDSUs FBS credentials. The BISON draw almost twice as many fans as Nova per game and well over twice as many on a seasonal basis.

The only reason the average attendance is that high is because the SEC schools - sans Missisippi State and Vandy all draw between 90-100K per game and in the B10 you have Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State that draw over 100K per game (Michigan over 110K) and now Nebraska that is over 80k.

If not for about 10 schools in the SEC and Big 10 (along with Texas, USC, and Oklahoma) that average would be about 20K

Very unresearched post. Look at the numbers below. The average doesn't drop below 30k unless you remove the top 40% or about 48 schools. The average doesn't drop below 20k unless you remove the top 70% or about 84 schools. Your blind estimate of removing the top 10% results in an average attendance of over 38k.

You were also bad wrong about the SEC because - in addition to Mississippi State and Vanderbilt - Arkansas, Kentucky, and Ole Miss don't even come close to 90k.

Michigan Big 10 111825
Ohio State Big 10 105278
Pennsylvania State Big 10 104234
Alabama SEC 101821
Texas Big 12 100654
Tennessee SEC 99781
Georgia SEC 92746
Louisiana State SEC 92718
Florida SEC 90511
Auburn SEC 86087
Nebraska Big 12 85664
Oklahoma Big 12 84738
Texas A&M Big 12 82477
Notre Dame IND 80795
Southern California Pac 10 79907
Wisconsin Big 10 79862
Clemson ACC 77469
South Carolina SEC 76668
Michigan State Big 10 73556
Florida State ACC 71270
Iowa Big 10 70585
Arkansas SEC 68932
Washington Pac 10 66264
Virginia Tech ACC 66233
Kentucky SEC 66070
Missouri Big 12 61540
Brigham Young MWC 61381
California-Los Angeles Pac 10 60376
Oregon Pac 10 59398
North Carolina ACC 58250
California Pac 10 57873
Texas Tech Big 12 57108
North Carolina State ACC 56877
West Virginia BEC 56325
Mississippi SEC 55898
Arizona Pac 10 55408
Mississippi State SEC 54999
Illinois Big 10 54188
Miami FL ACC 52575
Pittsburgh BEC 52165
Oklahoma State Big 12 50812
Louisville BEC 50648
Kansas State Big 12 49816
East Carolina CUSA 49665
Minnesota Big 10 49513
Purdue Big 10 48063
Arizona State Pac 10 47943
Colorado Big 12 46864
Georgia Tech ACC 46449
Rutgers BEC 46195
Oregon State Pac 10 45509
Utah MWC 45459
Virginia ACC 45459
Iowa State Big 12 45395
Kansas Big 12 44851
Texas Christian MWC 42466
Indiana Big 10 41953
South Florida BEC 40849
Air Force MWC 40093
Syracuse BEC 40064
Baylor Big 12 40043
Stanford Pac 10 40042
Central Florida CUSA 39614
Maryland ACC 39168
Boston College ACC 38369
Connecticut BEC 38248
Hawaii WAC 37311
Northwestern Big 10 36449
Cincinnati BEC 35067
San Diego State MWC 34133
Fresno State WAC 34120
Boise State WAC 33269
Vanderbilt SEC 33269
Navy IND 32653
Houston CUSA 31728
Army IND 31667
Wake Forest ACC 30474
Southern Mississippi CUSA 29400
Texas-El Paso CUSA 29350
Duke ACC 28750
Marshall CUSA 27046
Rice CUSA 25571
Washington State Pac 10 24532
Memphis CUSA 23918
Southern Methodist CUSA 23515
Tulane CUSA 23220
Colorado State MWC 22400
Louisiana-Monroe SBC 20934
New Mexico MWC 20888
Wyoming MWC 20791
Nevada-Las Vegas MWC 20612
Temple MAC 20515
Central Michigan MAC 20448
Tulsa CUSA 20379
Florida International SBC 19808
Nevada WAC 19576
Louisiana Tech WAC 19485
Toledo MAC 19333
Ohio MAC 19046
Middle Tennesse State SBC 19024
Troy SBC 18947
Alabama-Birmingham CUSA 18360
Utah State WAC 17878
Northern Illinois MAC 17760
North Texas SBC 17718
Arkansas State SBC 17394
Louisiana-Lafayette SBC 17383
Kent State MAC 16152
New Mexico State WAC 15906
Eastern Michigan MAC 15885
Miami OH MAC 15519
Western Kentucky SBC 14577
San Jose State WAC 14474
Western Michigan MAC 14255
Florida Atlantic SBC 14025
Bowling Green State MAC 13306
Buffalo MAC 12981
Idaho WAC 12730
Akron MAC 10185
Ball State MAC 8947
100% 44309.325
Bottom 90% 38528.35185
Bottom 80% 34031.70833
Bottom 70% 30482.61905
Bottom 60% 27129.01389
Bottom 50% 23809.11667
Bottom 40% 20473.20833
Bottom 30% 17621
Bottom 20% 15886.25
Bottom 10% 13565.83333

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Iowa State enrollment of about 28,000 is included in your number Clenz. Ames is not a big town. They have a stadium that is about twice the size of the University and it sells out. With that in mind Villanova's enrollment of about 10,000 should justify at a minimum a 20,000 seat stadium. The more I look at Nova the more I think they are woefully unprepared to make this move, or with the glass half full, the more I think NDSU is a little behind the curve on the FBS move.

Your point on average attendance is well taken but Nova isnt even at 50% of the 20,000 adjusted avg. you are citing, (which according to the Good Mans post below is not valid).

1. Des Moines is 40 minutes away - and has 575,000 people (that's more than DOUBLE the RR Valley)
2. the Cedarloo area is 90 minutes away - and has 110,000 (the size of Fargo)
3. Cedar Rapids is 2 hours away and has 125,000 (again bigger than Fargo)
4. Mason City is 100 minutes away - and has 51,000 (only a bit smaller than GF)
5. Ames itself has 56,000 (around the size of GF)

Total approx population within two hours of Ames =917,000 (that's just the big cities)
Total for the American side of the RR Valley=225,000

that's almost 4 TIMES MORE.

ISU has 29,000 students
NDSU has 15,000

seriously - ISU is in essence DOUBLE the institution that NDSU is, and life in the FBS/BCS is a constant struggle for them...

[JBB]

As pointed out earlier, lots of competition in Iowa. Iowa is the big school and has a 70,000 seat stadium. NDSUs situation would be no worse than ISU.

Villanova has 10,000 students, probably a few less and has not been growing much. NDSU has been growing leaps and bounds along with the population of the area.

[clenz]

Iowa State enrollment of about 28,000 is included in your number Clenz. Ames is not a big town. They have a stadium that is about twice the size of the University and it sells out. With that in mind Villanova's enrollment of about 10,000 should justify at a minimum a 20,000 seat stadium. The more I look at Nova the more I think they are woefully unprepared to make this move, or with the glass half full, the more I think NDSU is a little behind the curve on the FBS move.

Your point on average attendance is well taken but Nova isnt even at 50% of the 20,000 adjusted avg. you are citing, (which according to the Good Mans post below is not valid).

Completely false.

[JBB]

I wouldnt say completely, but I could find no evidence of the students being included in the figure you are stating so Ill concede the point on the Ames population. It doesnt change my mind though. NDSUs potential for the FBS is every bit as good as Nova or better.

If NDSU doesnt fit the mold Villanova is sure a stretch with 1/3 fewer students, inadequate stadium, lots of competition and about half the attendance the BISON get now.

[TribeFanInNC]

A lot of the schools that make it worthwhile to play football in this division are leaving ... Here is a list I saw on BV:

Texas State (leaving)
Jacksonville State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Sam Houston State
James Madison
Lamar
Massachusetts

Yeah, once Lamar walks, FCS is toast!

[clenz]

A lot of the schools that make it worthwhile to play football in this division are leaving ... Here is a list I saw on BV:

Texas State (leaving)
Jacksonville State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Sam Houston State
James Madison
Lamar
Massachusetts

Yeah, once Lamar walks, FCS is toast!

I missed that post by JBB. Out of those UMASS and Texas State are the only schools I've hear solid sources say they are gone. Texas State is confirmed, UMASS is in limbo right now.

Where is Jacksonville State, Poly, Davis, SHSU, and Lamar going?

James Madison has the stadium renovations going to move FBS but I've only heard rumors, nothing as solid as UMASS - or even App State/Nova

[Thundering Herd]

Yeah, once Lamar walks, FCS is toast!

I missed that post by JBB. Out of those UMASS and Texas State are the only schools I've hear solid sources say they are gone. Texas State is confirmed, UMASS is in limbo right now.

Where is Jacksonville State, Poly, Davis, SHSU, and Lamar going?

James Madison has the stadium renovations going to move FBS but I've only heard rumors, nothing as solid as UMASS - or even App State/Nova

He said he got that list from BV so who knows who came up with that.