AZGrizFan wrote:TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
And you're wrong.
If your theory held any water - Kerry would have been elected in a walk. The problem is (and this will be the problem for ANY candidate left in the GOP field) that "I'm not _____" is not enough to beat an incumbent... not even Bush. Kerry's problem was that he NEVER excited the Dems to vote FOR him... all the energy was against Bush... which is why ultimately, it failed... the same thing is shaping up for the GOP... their base is so angry about Obama that they figure they'll vote to two dogs fucking in the bed of a pickup because it isn't Obama and that'll be enough... to the average voter... it won't be... just like it wasn't with Kerry (who was as close to two dogs fucking in the bed of a pickup as you can get)
Well, that's an interesting theory. How come 98% of the campaign advertising goes directly against your theory then?
Edit: And if "defeating an incumbent" is so goddamned difficult, how come it's happened in 2 of the past 5 presidential elections where there was an incumbent running?
1. defeating an incumbent is hard as shit... look at Congress. in 2010, a "wave" year 70 some seats out of 435 changed hands.
2. in the case of the Presidency let's take a look at the last 100 years:
1912: Incumbent TR loses (however he is running as an independent having originally declined to run... splitting the GOP between he and Taft - an outlier if there ever was one)
1916: Woodrow Wilson Re-elected over C.E. Hughes
1920: Harding wins an open-seat election
1924: Coolidge (having succeeded Harding) crushes Davis
1928: Hoover wins an open-seat election in a massive landslide
1932: FDR trounces Hoover - promising massive reforms (if ever there was a challenger people were voting FOR this is it)
1936-1944: FDR rolls over a succession of "I'm not FDR" challengers
1948: Truman (have succeeded FDR) holds of "I'm not Truman" candidate Tom Dewey
1952: Ike beats Stevenson in open seat
1956: Ike does it again - Stevenson falls clearly in to "I'm not Ike" category
1960: JFK wins open seat
1964: Johnson CRUSHES Goldwater - debate can be had about whether he's an "I'm not LBJ" candidate
1968: Nixon wins open seat
1972: Nixon buries McGovern an "I'm not Nixon" guy
1976: Carter beats Ford - this is the ONLY election I can think of in the past 100 years where, by simple virtue of being "not Ford" is that enough (and it took the pardoning of Nixon to do it)
1980: Reagan wallops Carter - I'm no fan of Reagan - but he clearly did not run on "I'm not Carter"
1984: Reagan routs Mondale - the consummate "I'm not him" guy.
1988: Bush wins open seat
1992: Clinton beats Bush - Clinton surprises many by emerging as a candidate people want to vote FOR.
1996: Clinton downs Dole - clearly running as "I'm not Clinton"
2000: Bush edges Gore in an open seat
2004: Bush beats Kerry - clearly running as "I'm not Bush"
2008: Obama beats McCain in an open seat
A tally:
25 elections
8 are open seat races - leaving 17 with an incumbent facing a challenger of these:
12 are won by incumbents
5 are won by challengers of these:
4 are won by candidates with strong appeal candidates voters are voting "for"
1 is won by somebody who just showed up and wasn't Gerald Ford (who was subsequently THRASHED in the next election by a challenger voters were voting "for")
5 challengers have won in 25 elections - that's 20% (while better than Congress - it's not terribly impressive)
1 of those fits the "i'm not so and so" criteria - that's 5%...