Sagarin Conference Rankings Week 5 - SoCon #1, CAA #2

[T-Dog]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc11.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

13 SOUTHERN (AA)= 57.66 57.87 ( 13) 9 57.89 ( 13)
14 COLONIAL (AA)= 57.35 57.20 ( 14) 11 57.23 ( 14)
15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 54.60 54.78 ( 15) 9 54.72 ( 15)
16 GREAT WEST (AA)= 54.59 54.46 ( 16) 5 54.46 ( 16)
17 BIG SKY (AA)= 53.56 52.58 ( 17) 9 52.95 ( 17)
18 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 47.19 47.25 ( 18) 8 47.22 ( 18)
19 I-AA INDEPENDENTS (AA)= 45.19 45.57 ( 20) 4 45.50 ( 20)
20 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 45.19 45.35 ( 21) 9 45.33 ( 21)
21 PATRIOT LEAGUE (AA)= 45.05 45.82 ( 19) 7 45.66 ( 19)
22 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 44.20 44.16 ( 22) 8 44.15 ( 22)
23 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 41.54 41.68 ( 23) 7 41.65 ( 23)
24 NORTHEAST (AA)= 40.04 39.43 ( 24) 9 39.55 ( 24)
25 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 37.69 37.56 ( 25) 11 37.65 ( 25)
26 SOUTHWESTERN (AA)= 36.24 35.57 ( 26) 10 35.93 ( 26)
27 PIONEER (AA)= 34.22 33.16 ( 27) 10 33.60 ( 27)

[GRIZ MOBSTER]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc11.htm

13 SOUTHERN (AA)= 57.66 57.87 ( 13) 9 57.89 ( 13)
14 COLONIAL (AA)= 57.35 57.20 ( 14) 11 57.23 ( 14)
15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 54.60 54.78 ( 15) 9 54.72 ( 15)
16 GREAT WEST (AA)= 54.59 54.46 ( 16) 5 54.46 ( 16)
17 BIG SKY (AA)= 53.56 52.58 ( 17) 9 52.95 ( 17)
18 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 47.19 47.25 ( 18) 8 47.22 ( 18)
19 I-AA INDEPENDENTS (AA)= 45.19 45.57 ( 20) 4 45.50 ( 20)
20 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 45.19 45.35 ( 21) 9 45.33 ( 21)
21 PATRIOT LEAGUE (AA)= 45.05 45.82 ( 19) 7 45.66 ( 19)
22 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 44.20 44.16 ( 22) 8 44.15 ( 22)
23 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 41.54 41.68 ( 23) 7 41.65 ( 23)
24 NORTHEAST (AA)= 40.04 39.43 ( 24) 9 39.55 ( 24)
25 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 37.69 37.56 ( 25) 11 37.65 ( 25)
26 SOUTHWESTERN (AA)= 36.24 35.57 ( 26) 10 35.93 ( 26)
27 PIONEER (AA)= 34.22 33.16 ( 27) 10 33.60 ( 27)

I think this is a down year for the CAA.....so far, with the exception being JMU and possibly MAINE

[youngterrier]

The Socon could get as much as 4 or 5 in the playoff this year I think. Wofford, GSU, App, Furman, and maybe Chatty could make it. I could see all of these teams with a 7-4 record or better. Chatty is the weakest link so far. They have to beat 2 of Furman, GSU, and Wofford. Assuming that happens, let's say Furman and GSU beat App. App makes the playoffs at 7-4 I think unless Savannah State is sub D1? Furman beats GSU/Wofford and finishes 7-4 with losses to Florida, Coastal, Chattanooga, and 1of the top teams in the Socon....and makes the playoffs. Chattanooga makes the playoffs with losses to App, El Cid, Nebraska and one of the 2 top Socon teams. For sake of argument and homerism, let's say that Wofford beats Furman and Chattanooga. GSU finishes 8-3 with losses to Nebraska, Chatty, and Furman. Wofford wins the Socon at 9-2, we have an 8-3 second place playoff team, and 3 7-4 teams. GSU and Wofford are probably interchangeable in this situation. GSU nor Wofford can make the playoffs at 7-4 as they would not have 7 d1 wins. If GSU beats Chatty next week, I don't think Chatty can make the playoffs this year; they'd still have Elon, Wofford, and Furman on the schedule with 4 losses already and I just don't see them winning all 3

[∞∞∞]

I think this is a down year for the CAA.....so far, with the exception being JMU and possibly MAINE

CAA is 18-2 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 1-9 against the FBS. 8/11 teams have a winning record.

SoCon is 9-1 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 0-5 against the FBS. 5/9 teams have a winning record.

MVFC is 9-4 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 2-8 against the FBS. 3/9 teams have a winning record.

Big Sky is 2-2 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 1-9 against the FBS. 3/9 teams have a winning record.

Don't really see how the CAA is down. It actually seems better.

[Grizalltheway]

I think this is a down year for the CAA.....so far, with the exception being JMU and possibly MAINE

CAA is 18-2 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 1-9 against the FBS. 8/11 teams have a winning record.

SoCon is 9-1 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 0-5 against the FBS. 5/9 teams have a winning record.

MVFC is 9-4 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 2-8 against the FBS. 3/9 teams have a winning record.

Big Sky is 2-2 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 1-9 against the FBS. 3/9 teams have a winning record.

Don't really see how the CAA is down. It actually seems better.

Sorry, I'm not any more impressed by the CAA beating up on partial-scholly teams than I am by UNDS doing it.

[youngterrier]

CAA hasn't performed up to par and they are just getting into the beef of their schedules, we'll see how good they are, but I'll bet that the champ will have 2 or 3 losses

[∞∞∞]

CAA is 18-2 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 1-9 against the FBS. 8/11 teams have a winning record.

SoCon is 9-1 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 0-5 against the FBS. 5/9 teams have a winning record.

MVFC is 9-4 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 2-8 against the FBS. 3/9 teams have a winning record.

Big Sky is 2-2 against out-of-conference FCS opponents & 1-9 against the FBS. 3/9 teams have a winning record.

Don't really see how the CAA is down. It actually seems better.

Sorry, I'm not any more impressed by the CAA beating up on partial-scholly teams than I am by UNDS doing it.

CAA's beat 8 full-scholly teams...double the amount of OOC FCS opponents the whole Big Sky has played.

CAA hasn't performed up to par and they are just getting into the beef of their schedules, we'll see how good they are, but I'll bet that the champ will have 2 or 3 losses

What is "up to par" for you? 18-2 OOC and 8 out of 11 teams have a winning record. What else do you want? For once the bottom teams are doing good and winning their OOC games, and now the CAA is down?

[Grizalltheway]

Sorry, I'm not any more impressed by the CAA beating up on partial-scholly teams than I am by UNDS doing it.

The CAA's beat 8 full-scholarship teams...double the amount of FCS opponents the whole Big Sky has played.

CAA hasn't performed up to par and they are just getting into the beef of their schedules, we'll see how good they are, but I'll bet that the champ will have 2 or 3 losses

What is "up to par" for you? 18-2 OOC and 8 out of 11 teams have a winning record. What else do you want? For once the bottom teams are doing good and winning their OOC games, and now the CAA is down?

You also have many, many more FCS OOC options than Big Sky teams do. And, I don't think the CAA isn't good, I just don't it's at the same level it has been the past few years. Time will tell.

[youngterrier]

CAA hasn't performed up to par and they are just getting into the beef of their schedules, we'll see how good they are, but I'll bet that the champ will have 2 or 3 losses

What is "up to par" for you? 18-2 OOC and 8 out of 11 teams have a winning record. What else do you want? For once the bottom teams are doing good and winning their OOC games, and now the CAA is down?

The lackluster performances of W&M and Delaware against d2 competition; Poor defense by Richmond UNH, and UMASS; Villanova being wayyyyy down. Rhode Island being Rhode Island. JMU and Maine seem solid though. Towson and ODU are playing well though, however we still don't know how good they are.

These things turn me off in the CAA, whereas in the SoCon, you have teams like Wofford, Furman and GSU who can score a lot of points and play very good defense. I don't want to make this a thread about SoCon vs CAA but the consistency in the SoCon IMO makes it superior because the CAA hasn't had one team (except maybe JMU or maybe Maine) step up and perform against quality opponents. I think JMU will win the CAA and get a seed, they're showing improvement every week, but other than that the CAA is a mystery; yeah they win games they're supposed to, but the way they win makes me scratch my head.

[DJH]

Great West > Big Sky

[DJH]

The CAA is "down" relative to other years because it doesn't appear that their is a real elite team at this point.

Its still a good conference because it has a lot of depth, but it is going to appear down if there is not a team in the top 3-5 in the country.

[∞∞∞]

I don't want to make this a thread about SoCon vs CAA but the consistency in the SoCon IMO makes it superior because the CAA hasn't had one team (except maybe JMU or maybe Maine) step up and perform against quality opponents.

So of the 9 FCS opponents the SoCon has beat, which one of the would you call quality?

Presbyterian (1-3)
North Carolina A&T (2-2)
Savannah State (1-4)
North Carolina Central (1-3)
North Carolina Central (1-3)
Jacksonville (3-2)
Gardner-Webb (1-3)
Jacksonville State (4-1)
Eastern Kentucky (1-3)

Jacksonville State is the only quality team...and barely. Basically the SoCon played garbage teams OOC and are now beating up on each other. How do you know how good your conference is, and what the quality is like, if you have nothing significant to compare it to?

[youngterrier]

I don't want to make this a thread about SoCon vs CAA but the consistency in the SoCon IMO makes it superior because the CAA hasn't had one team (except maybe JMU or maybe Maine) step up and perform against quality opponents.

So of the 9 FCS opponents the SoCon has beat, which one of the would you call quality?

Presbyterian (1-3)
North Carolina A&T (2-2)
Savannah State (1-4)
North Carolina Central (1-3)
North Carolina Central (1-3)
Jacksonville (3-2)
Gardner-Webb (1-3)
Jacksonville State (4-1)
Eastern Kentucky (1-3)

Jacksonville State is the only quality team...and barely. Basically the SoCon played garbage teams OOC and are now beating up on each other. How do you know how good your conference is, and what the quality is like, if you have nothing significant to compare it to?

Wofford scored more points on offense against Clemson than any other team. We know that Wofford and GSU are quality teams as they both made it to the quarterfinals last year and bring back a significant amount of contributors from those teams. Not to mention both of their offenses are clicking on all cylinders, averaging over 450 in Wofford's case including against a decent App defense and great Clemson defense. No one has played within 20 points of GSU.

The Socon is winning the games they are supposed to by about the margin you'd expect, not so much for the CAA. I honestly wonder if teams like New Hampshire or Richmond actually play defense, or if teams like W&M actually play offense

[tribe_pride]

∞∞∞ - the CAA is down in comparison to previous bunch of years especially at the top. It's usually Towson and URI playing poorly at the bottom. This year, it's URI and Nova.

JMU has proven they are a top team with UNH and Maine slightly behind and a number of teams in a group behind them. The CAA usually has about 3 teams that look as strong as JMU this year and another 2 that seem to be how UNH and Maine have looked. Not so this year. There have been wins but not even close to as impressive as usual.

I am actually surprised that the CAA is only barely off of the #1 Sagarin team - figured it would be worse. I take it as a major sign of how strong the CAA is as a whole this and previous years that in a down year, the CAA is almost the top FCS conference (and may in the end wind up being the top)

[T-Dog]

The funny thing about Trip using math and figures to back this up is that the Sagarin formula is all math and figures so when it boils down to the end of the argument he's going down, the SoCon wins.

[∞∞∞]

Interesting statistics I compiled between the CAA and SoCon against Division 1 competition:

Average points scored per game:

01. Georgia Southern 41.33 (SoCon)
02. New Hampshire 38.5 (CAA)
03. Old Dominion 38.2 (CAA)
04. Furman 37 (SoCon)
05. Wofford 32 (SoCon)
06. Samford 31 (SoCon)
07. Maine 29.75 (CAA)
08. Towson 29.5 (CAA)
09. Appalachian State 28 (SoCon)
10. UMass 27.5 (CAA)
11. Delaware 26.5 (CAA)
12. Richmond 25.6 (CAA)
13. Chattanooga 21.4 (SoCon)
14. Rhode Island 20.75 (CAA)
15. Western Carolina 20.6 (SoCon)
16. James Madison 20.4 (CAA)
17. Citadel 20 (SoCon)
18. Elon 17.25 (SoCon)
19. Villanova 14.4 (CAA)
20. William & Mary 14.25 (CAA)

Average points allowed per game:

01. Towson 14.5 (CAA)
02. Georgia Southern 17 (SoCon)
03. Citadel 17.5 (SoCon)
04. James Madison 19.2 (CAA)
05. Furman 19.5 (SoCon)
06. Maine 20 (CAA)
07. William & Mary 20.75 (CAA)
08. Delaware 22 (CAA)
09. Chattanooga 22.6 (SoCon)
10. Appalachian State 23.6 (SoCon)
11. Richmond 24.5 (CAA)
12. Wofford 25 (SoCon)
13. Old Dominion 26.6 (CAA)
14. Villanova 26.8 (CAA)
15. Rhode Island 27.25 (CAA)
16. Samford 27.6 (SoCon)
17. Elon 30.75 (SoCon)
18. UMass 34 (CAA)
19. New Hampshire 43.5 (CAA)
20. Western Carolina 54 (SoCon)

Difference between the two above statistics:

01. Georgia Southern +24.33 (SoCon)
02. Furman +17.5 (SoCon)
03. Towson +15 (CAA)
04. Old Dominion +11.6 (CAA)
05. Maine +9.75 (CAA)
06. Wofford +7 (SoCon)
07. Delaware +4.5 (CAA)
08. Appalachian State +4.4 (SoCon)
09. Samford +3.6 (SoCon)
10. Citadel +2.5 (SoCon)
11. James Madison +1.2 (CAA)
11. Chattanooga +1.2 (SoCon)
13. Richmond +1.1 (CAA)
14. New Hampshire -5 (CAA)
15. William & Mary -6.5 (CAA)
16. UMass -6.5 (CAA)
17. Rhode Island -6.5 (CAA)
18. Villanova -12.4 (CAA)
19. Elon -13.5 (SoCon)
20. Western Carolina -33.4 (SoCon)

[BlueHen86]

CAA hasn't performed up to par and they are just getting into the beef of their schedules, we'll see how good they are, but I'll bet that the champ will have 2 or 3 losses

They pretty much play each other from here on out. Between now and the playoffs there really is no way for the conference to move up or down relative to other conferences.

Only the playoffs will decide if the CAA is up or down this year.

[native]

CAA hasn't performed up to par and they are just getting into the beef of their schedules, we'll see how good they are, but I'll bet that the champ will have 2 or 3 losses

They pretty much play each other from here on out. Between now and the playoffs there really is no way for the conference to move up or down relative to other conferences.

Only the playoffs will decide if the CAA is up or down this year.

True dat!

CAA, SOCON, Big Sky, and Missouri Valley are all strong conferences with quality teams.

[Twentysix]

Interesting statistics I compiled between the CAA and SoCon against Division 1 competition:

Average points scored per game:

01. Georgia Southern 41.33 (SoCon)
02. New Hampshire 38.5 (CAA)
03. Old Dominion 38.2 (CAA)
04. Furman 37 (SoCon)
05. Wofford 32 (SoCon)
06. Samford 31 (SoCon)
07. Maine 29.75 (CAA)
08. Towson 29.5 (CAA)
09. Appalachian State 28 (SoCon)
10. UMass 27.5 (CAA)
11. Delaware 26.5 (CAA)
12. Richmond 25.6 (CAA)
13. Chattanooga 21.4 (SoCon)
14. Rhode Island 20.75 (CAA)
15. Western Carolina 20.6 (SoCon)
16. James Madison 20.4 (CAA)
17. Citadel 20 (SoCon)
18. Elon 17.25 (SoCon)
19. Villanova 14.4 (CAA)
20. William & Mary 14.25 (CAA)

Average points allowed per game:

01. Towson 14.5 (CAA)
02. Georgia Southern 17 (SoCon)
03. Citadel 17.5 (SoCon)
04. James Madison 19.2 (CAA)
05. Furman 19.5 (SoCon)
06. Maine 20 (CAA)
07. William & Mary 20.75 (CAA)
08. Delaware 22 (CAA)
09. Chattanooga 22.6 (SoCon)
10. Appalachian State 23.6 (SoCon)
11. Richmond 24.5 (CAA)
12. Wofford 25 (SoCon)
13. Old Dominion 26.6 (CAA)
14. Villanova 26.8 (CAA)
15. Rhode Island 27.25 (CAA)
16. Samford 27.6 (SoCon)
17. Elon 30.75 (SoCon)
18. UMass 34 (CAA)
19. New Hampshire 43.5 (CAA)
20. Western Carolina 54 (SoCon)

Difference between the two above statistics:

01. Georgia Southern +24.33 (SoCon)
02. Furman +17.5 (SoCon)
03. Towson +15 (CAA)
04. Old Dominion +11.6 (CAA)
05. Maine +9.75 (CAA)
06. Wofford +7 (SoCon)
07. Delaware +4.5 (CAA)
08. Appalachian State +4.4 (SoCon)
09. Samford +3.6 (SoCon)
10. Citadel +2.5 (SoCon)
11. James Madison +1.2 (CAA)
11. Chattanooga +1.2 (SoCon)
13. Richmond +1.1 (CAA)
14. New Hampshire -5 (CAA)
15. William & Mary -6.5 (CAA)
16. UMass -6.5 (CAA)
17. Rhode Island -6.5 (CAA)
18. Villanova -12.4 (CAA)
19. Elon -13.5 (SoCon)
20. Western Carolina -33.4 (SoCon)

NDSU MVFC PF 38.8 PA 10.8 Difference +28.

[Keeper]

You can wrangle numbers any which way you want, I should know.

Anyhow, I prefer to think that SoCon is much improved rather than CAA being down.

Playoffs will tell all, eh?

[kalm]

Great West > Big Sky

The Great Big Western Sky is hands down the best conference in the land.

The BSC is improved from top to bottom. What will be interesting is seeing if a legit #2 emerges.

[89Hen]

The CAA does seem to be down so far this year, but to even read Sagarin ratings this early in the season is . Shit, they're barely worth reading at the end of the season.

[Dukie95]

The CAA is definitely down this year...don't need Sagarin to tell me that.

[UAalum72]

The CAA does seem to be down so far this year, but to even read Sagarin ratings this early in the season is . ****, they're barely worth reading at the end of the season.

Plus, Sagarin doesn't account for non-Division I games at all, but I've never heard whether it's a benefit or detriment in his system to play them.

Ken Massey's system also of course doesn't have enough results yet, but he ranks all 790 teams - I, II, III, NAIA

Conf. Teams W-L
1 Southern 9 13 6
2 Great West 5 10 11
3 Missouri Valley 9 11 12
4 Colonial 11 21 11
5 Big Sky 9 7 12
6 Southland 8 11 14
7 OH Valley 9 7 12
8 FCS Indep 4 8 10
9 Patriot League 7 13 12
10 Big South 7 8 22
11 Ivy League 8 7 9
12 Mid-Eastern AC 11 12 17
13 Northeast 9 8 13
14 Pioneer 10 14 15
15 Southwestern AC 10 5 8
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[89Hen]

Ken Massey's system also of course...

Sucks.