Last teams in

[grizzaholic]

What is the chance they will beat AppSt?

7.009%. Which, when multiplied by the 95% means they have a 6.93% chance of getting in.

I like them odds.

[GannonFan]

My only point of reference on the second place PL and NEC teams is the second place MEAC team last year getting in over Montana (I think Montana's situation is comparable to UD's this year). I'm not saying it's what they should do, it's just my guess.

Not really the same, although the outcome (i.e. no playoffs) could very likely be the same. Last year Montana was 7-4 overall, with one win against a DII team. UD, if they win their last two, would be 7-4 with one win against a DII team. However, UD played an FBS team this year (Montana did not play "up" last year) and UD will have beaten a playoff team this year (at least ODU, and potentially Towson, although Towson getting into the playoffs would probably keep UD out, so it would benefit UD for Towson to lose out at this point and end up 6-5) whereas Montana didn't beat a playoff team last year. So the two situations aren't exactly the same.

[Aho Old Guy]

Wofford got 'dinked' in 2004 at 8-3. Liberty got dinked last year at 8-3 with an FBS win.

There is a lot of ball to be played that could change all this next week. My point is that if the Committee looks at SoS and significant wins, ODU needs to add a victory over W&M to their resume (to go along with their victory over JMU) assuming W&M and JMU make the playoffs. It's not ODU's fault that they didn't play Maine or UNH this year BUT their OoC SoS is horrid. They were all D1 but to put it kindly, the 'inverse' of the cream-of-the-crop?

Another qualifier is how the Committee might look at UMass. UMass at 8-3 makes ODU look better than UMass at 6-5, and that could be a nudge toward a significant win. UMass getting thumped by Maine and JMU would almost make it imperative that ODU beat W&M.

I think what hurt UD as much as the non-D1 game was losing at URI but they did rebound against Towson. The Hens should be pulling for the Tigers to thump Maine & UNH, and then blow it against URI to finish 8-3.

[CAA Flagship]

There is a lot of ball to be played that could change all this next week. My point is that if the Committee looks at SoS and significant wins, ODU needs to add a victory over W&M to their resume (to go along with their victory over JMU) assuming W&M and JMU make the playoffs. It's not ODU's fault that they didn't play Maine or UNH this year BUT their OoC SoS is horrid. They were all D1 but to put it kindly, the 'inverse' of the cream-of-the-crop?

What source do you use for OOC SOS comparisons?

[Aho Old Guy]

Here is the NCAA 'Toughest Schedule' data

Here is the Sagarin Ratings

To my knowledge, the Committee has never identified their actual method of determining SoS even though it's effectively their top criteria when looking at opponents records.

How (or if, or in what detail) that they scrutinize the opponents of your opponents is simply not known ... there are others who may have better incite.

[CAA Flagship]

Here is the NCAA 'Toughest Schedule' data

Here is the Sagarin Ratings

To my knowledge, the Committee has never identified their actual method of determining SoS even though it's effectively their top criteria when looking at opponents records.

How (or if, or in what detail) that they scrutinize the opponents of your opponents is simply not known ... there are others who may have better incite.

You have been hammering ODU's OOC schedule but I don't think it is all that bad. It's certainly not good, but it is not bad compared to many power conference schools. There are only maybe 7-9 teams that have a stronger overall schedule strength that are not benefitting from having played a I-A. The ones that did play a I-A lost. If the committee throws out the I-A games (unless they win), I don't see our OOC schedule as bad as you portray it.

[AZGrizFan]

Here is the NCAA 'Toughest Schedule' data

Here is the Sagarin Ratings

To my knowledge, the Committee has never identified their actual method of determining SoS even though it's effectively their top criteria when looking at opponents records.

How (or if, or in what detail) that they scrutinize the opponents of your opponents is simply not known ... there are others who may have better incite.

You have been hammering ODU's OOC schedule but I don't think it is all that bad. It's certainly not good, but it is not bad compared to many power conference schools. There are only maybe 7-9 teams that have a stronger overall schedule strength that are not benefitting from having played a I-A. The ones that did play a I-A lost. If the committee throws out the I-A games (unless they win), I don't see our OOC schedule as bad as you portray it.

Campbell/Ga State/Hampton are certainly no worse than St. Francis/Laugh-yet/Minnesoter.

[JayJ79]

Well, as I said earlier, we all knew the "rule" against a conference having more than three teams in the field prior to 2003. And if ever there was a "rule" to be broken...

The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;

The NCAA even bolds the word MAY in their book.

Except the 7-Div. I win rule IS in their book, even though they do leave themselves some flexibility with the "may".
I don't believe there was ever anything mentioned in the book about having a cap on the number of teams taken from a conference.

[CAA Flagship]

Well, as I said earlier, we all knew the "rule" against a conference having more than three teams in the field prior to 2003. And if ever there was a "rule" to be broken...



The NCAA even bolds the word MAY in their book.

Except the 7-Div. I win rule IS in their book, even though they do leave themselves some flexibility with the "may".
I don't believe there was ever anything mentioned in the book about having a cap on the number of teams taken from a conference.

The 7 DI rule is nothing more than an attempt to ensure everyone schedules aggressively. The bottom line is they want the "best" 20 in the playoffs

[danefan]

Here is the NCAA 'Toughest Schedule' data

Here is the Sagarin Ratings

To my knowledge, the Committee has never identified their actual method of determining SoS even though it's effectively their top criteria when looking at opponents records.

How (or if, or in what detail) that they scrutinize the opponents of your opponents is simply not known ... there are others who may have better incite.

I wouldn't spend a half second using NCAA's SOS ranking. Guess who's #1?

Lafayette!!!!!!

[UD1Hens]

I think what hurt UD as much as the non-D1 game was losing at URI but they did rebound against Towson. The Hens should be pulling for the Tigers to thump Maine & UNH, and then blow it against URI to finish 8-3.

I look at it this way, Maine is a lock (currently 7 D1 wins + Towson, UMass, @ UNH). UNH is a lock (need one more 1 win JMU, @ Towson, Maine). ODU is a lock (currently 7 D1 wins + RIchmond, @ W&M). The CAA is usually a lock for 4 teams. As a Delaware fan we should be pulling for Towson to lose out (@ Maine, UNH, @ Rhode Island...tough schedule), and JMU to lose 2 of their last 3 (@ UNH, Rhode Island, @ UMass...tough stretch and they are banged up). Under those scenarios you'd have Delaware finish 4th in the CAA with a 7-4 record (1 FBS loss, 1 D-II win).

If Towson or JMU either finish at 7-4 they would get in over a 7-4 UD team. Both Towson and JMU would have 7 D1 wins, and an FBS loss. UD's only hope is that they finish 4th in the CAA and no other bubble teams from the SoCon or MVFC upset a team down the stretch to get to 7 D1 wins. Or something like a G-town beating Lehigh, winning the Patriot League and Lehigh scooping up an at-large. UD put itself in this spot by losing vs UMass and/or @ Rhode Island but we'll see how it shakes out.

[CAA Flagship]

I think what hurt UD as much as the non-D1 game was losing at URI but they did rebound against Towson. The Hens should be pulling for the Tigers to thump Maine & UNH, and then blow it against URI to finish 8-3.

I look at it this way, Maine is a lock (currently 7 D1 wins + Towson, UMass, @ UNH). UNH is a lock (need one more 1 win JMU, @ Towson, Maine). ODU is a lock (currently 7 D1 wins + RIchmond, @ W&M). The CAA is usually a lock for 4 teams. As a Delaware fan we should be pulling for Towson to lose out (@ Maine, UNH, @ Rhode Island...tough schedule), and JMU to lose 2 of their last 3 (@ UNH, Rhode Island, @ UMass...tough stretch and they are banged up). Under those scenarios you'd have Delaware finish 4th in the CAA with a 7-4 record (1 FBS loss, 1 D-II win).

If Towson or JMU either finish at 7-4 they would get in over a 7-4 UD team. Both Towson and JMU would have 7 D1 wins, and an FBS loss. UD's only hope is that they finish 4th in the CAA and no other bubble teams from the SoCon or MVFC upset a team down the stretch to get to 7 D1 wins. Or something like a G-town beating Lehigh, winning the Patriot League and Lehigh scooping up an at-large. UD put itself in this spot by losing vs UMass and/or @ Rhode Island but we'll see how it shakes out.

I'm not so sure having ODU lose against Richmond and W&M won't help you either. The more at 7-4, the better for UD with wins against Towson and ODU.

[BDKJMU]

I think what hurt UD as much as the non-D1 game was losing at URI but they did rebound against Towson. The Hens should be pulling for the Tigers to thump Maine & UNH, and then blow it against URI to finish 8-3.

I look at it this way, Maine is a lock (currently 7 D1 wins + Towson, UMass, @ UNH). UNH is a lock (need one more 1 win JMU, @ Towson, Maine). ODU is a lock (currently 7 D1 wins + RIchmond, @ W&M). The CAA is usually a lock for 4 teams. As a Delaware fan we should be pulling for Towson to lose out (@ Maine, UNH, @ Rhode Island...tough schedule), and JMU to lose 2 of their last 3 (@ UNH, Rhode Island, @ UMass...tough stretch and they are banged up). Under those scenarios you'd have Delaware finish 4th in the CAA with a 7-4 record (1 FBS loss, 1 D-II win).

If Towson or JMU either finish at 7-4 they would get in over a 7-4 UD team. Both Towson and JMU would have 7 D1 wins, and an FBS loss. UD's only hope is that they finish 4th in the CAA and no other bubble teams from the SoCon or MVFC upset a team down the stretch to get to 7 D1 wins. Or something like a G-town beating Lehigh, winning the Patriot League and Lehigh scooping up an at-large. UD put itself in this spot by losing vs UMass and/or @ Rhode Island but we'll see how it shakes out.

UNH isn't a lock YET. JMU, @ TU, Maine. Its not totally out of the realm of possibility they could lose all 3 of those. They won't, but they are facing their toughest 3 game stretch of the season.

I'd be willing to bet big $ that ODU will win one of their last 2 and be in the playoffs, but ODU isn't a lock YET. IF they lost their last 2 (they won't) they would be 7-4/4-4, no I-A game, which isn't much different than 6-5/4-4 with a I-A, and would be behind all the other 7 Div I win 7-4/5-3 from the top 4 conferences. They would really be on the fence come selection day..

[BDKJMU]

Win out and you are in - losing to W&M gives the Committee an excuse to leave you at home for the playoffs.

I suspect 'body of work' is weighted slightly more heavily than 'head-to-head' because the win-loss record is “scrutinized to determine a team’s strength in schedule." Also remember that the 'rumors' are FBS losses are minimized, effectively (theoretically in this case) making JMU 7-3 ....

with games against both Maine and UNH - something not on your resume.

If you can't (don't!) beat W&M, pull for Maine and UNH to lose out! (just an example Bears & 'Cats don't shoot the messenger!)

If ODU is 8-3/5-3 they are in.
Anyone else from the CAA that is 7 Div I wins, 7-4/5-3, they'll be in (except ineligible UMass of course). Take that to the bank.

[BDKJMU]

William & Mary and Delaware are in if they win out

Neither will have 7 D-I wins. Based on the committee's history, that kills them.

Yep.

[BDKJMU]

The long and short of the reason for me even making this thread is I think this year is pretty damn ugly in I-AA. I was very opposed to expanding to 20 teams for this very reason. It's going to be barrel bottom scraping this year. Looking to fill the bracket with second place teams from conferences that haven't won a single playoff game in over a decade (or one playoff game) is pitiful. To have to look at multiple 7-4 teams is awful. To think about including several teams without wins over a single ranked team is ridiculous.

Last yr's playoffs going off of memory (All 7 Div I wins):
7-4/6-2 UNI: MVFC AQ
7-4/5-3 WIU: MVFC At Large
7-4/4-4 (BCS win) NDSU: MVFC At Large, made qtr finals.
7-4/5-3 UNH: CAA At Large, got bye, made qtr finals.
7-4/5-3 Villanova: CAA AT Large, got bye, made semis.
7-4/5-3 GSU: So Con AT Large, made semis.

[BDKJMU]

Even at 16 teams, when was the last time an 8 D1 win team from the CAA was left out?

I think it was URI in 2001.

ODU is a mortal lock at 8-3.

Yep.

[CAA Flagship]

Neither will have 7 D-I wins. Based on the committee's history, that kills them.

Yep.

It's all relative, and as someone stated before, this is only year 2 of the 20 team field. You only have one year of history to go by. It is extremely possible that a 6 win team goes this year.

[BDKJMU]

Yep.

It's all relative, and as someone stated before, this is only year 2 of the 20 team field. You only have one year of history to go by. It is extremely possible that a 6 win team goes this year.

We'll see in 19 days.

[Mvemjsunpx]

It's all relative, and as someone stated before, this is only year 2 of the 20 team field. You only have one year of history to go by. It is extremely possible that a 6 win team goes this year.

That's very unlikely. The field was rather weak last year and there were still 28 eligible teams with 7 DI wins.

[Gil Dobie]

Campbell/Ga State/Hampton are certainly no worse than St. Francis/Laugh-yet/Minnesoter.

Could be worse, UNC who lost to Lindenwood, W Oregon & Idaho St...............

[GannonFan]

Well, as I said earlier, we all knew the "rule" against a conference having more than three teams in the field prior to 2003. And if ever there was a "rule" to be broken...



The NCAA even bolds the word MAY in their book.

Except the 7-Div. I win rule IS in their book, even though they do leave themselves some flexibility with the "may".
I don't believe there was ever anything mentioned in the book about having a cap on the number of teams taken from a conference.

There is no rule about 7 DI wins. It's a cautionary statement, nothing more.

[ODUalum11]

I think it was URI in 2001.

ODU is a mortal lock at 8-3.

Yep.

Obviously I agree as well, if you ask me it won't matter what ODU did this season as long as they get to 8 wins.

[JayJ79]

There is no rule about 7 DI wins. It's a cautionary statement, nothing more.

like "holding" in many football games.
or "travelling" in the NBA.

strike that, it's the complete opposite.
the 7-win guideline is enforced almost all the time, despite not being a "rule",
while the other two are rules, but are rarely enforced.

[89Hen]

Except the 7-Div. I win rule IS in their book

It's not a rule at all. When you say something may happen, it's a guideline or a warning, not a rule.