My Playoff Field 11-7-11

[EWURanger]

Any reason you guys are choosing to ignore Central Arkansas?

If they beat Texas St. this weekend, they will have an 8-3 record with 7 Div I wins. They will have a 7 game winning streak and would not have lost since the fourth game of the season.

Their losses will have been an overtime loss to FBS La. Tech. A loss to FCS Top 5 Sam Houton in a game where they lost Qb Nathan Dick to a concussion for about a half. And a loss to Ark St, a team who is 7-2 and on top of the Sunbelt (for whatever that is worth) right now. A game which QB Nathan Dick had to sit out due to his concussion in the Sam Houston game.

If they beat Texas St., that would be a pretty good resume'.

Doc

I'm not ignoring them. They are definitely in a tough position, though. They have to beat a transitional Texas State team to make it in. If they beat Texas State, though, then they are definitely in as the #2 from the Southland.

[McNeese72]

Any reason you guys are choosing to ignore Central Arkansas?

If they beat Texas St. this weekend, they will have an 8-3 record with 7 Div I wins. They will have a 7 game winning streak and would not have lost since the fourth game of the season.

Their losses will have been an overtime loss to FBS La. Tech. A loss to FCS Top 5 Sam Houton in a game where they lost Qb Nathan Dick to a concussion for about a half. And a loss to Ark St, a team who is 7-2 and on top of the Sunbelt (for whatever that is worth) right now. A game which QB Nathan Dick had to sit out due to his concussion in the Sam Houston game.

If they beat Texas St., that would be a pretty good resume'.

Doc

I'm not ignoring them. They are definitely in a tough position, though. They have to beat a transitional Texas State team to make it in. If they beat Texas State, though, then they are definitely in as the #2 from the Southland.

They are playing well right now and Texas St is not. It is a home game and Senior Day. I think they easily beat Texas St. at home. I think they are in a good position myself.

[UNHWildCats]

if the committee finally looks beyong the 7 win guideline then Georgetown doesnt get in, but if the committee holds steady with the guideline, Georgetown gets in if JMU or Indiana State fails to get 7 wins.

If the committee looks past the seven win guideline, I think Portland State will have the strongest chance of making it, losing only to two top ten teams (MSU, UM) and TCU. They just effed themselves with two non-qualifiers. If they had played another FCS team, they would be in guaranteed. To bad. Nigel Burton has a real good thing going down here (Montana transplant in Portland) and if he can just get fans to the games they may become a Big Sky Power. I still think they have a shot this year though, if the committee ignores the 7 D1 win minimum.

JMU and Indiana State as two potential 6 win teams have quality wins that Portland State lacks... Dont see Portland State jumping those two even if there 3 losses are good.

[SuperHornet]

I know I sound like a broken record by now, but I'm convinced that if a 6-win at-large EVER happens, it will be a CAA/SoCon team that overloaded on FBS and paid for it. Other conferences need not apply because the committee is convinced that CAA/SoCon is as close as FCS comes to God.

[89Hen]

the committee is convinced that CAA/SoCon is as close as FCS comes to God.

You'd have to go back to 2002 to find a final that didn't have a CAA or SoCon team in it. 10 of the last 16 finalists (7 of last 8 champs) were either a CAA or SoCon team. Do you think perhaps the committtee might actually be correct in this case?

[BDKJMU]

Scenario where JMU could be the 4th CAA team IF JMU can win the next 2:

ODU: Even if lose to W&M to finish 8-3/5-3 are a mortal lock.

Maine: Has left Umass & UNH. Even if they lost both of those to finish 7-4/5-3 would be ahead of a 7-4/5-3 JMU because won head to head.

UNH: Has left @ Towson & Maine. Even if they lost both of those to finish 7-4/5-3 would be ahead of JMU because won head to head.

Towson: Has left UNH & @ URI. IF they lost both of those would be 7-4/5-3. Its not out of the realm of possibility that TU would drop both of those. Them hosting UNH is this week's CAA Game of the Week is a tossup. TU will be favored @ URI, but URI did beat UD and W&M at home, so its not inconceiveable at home on senior day they would upset TU.

IF this happened, who would be ahead in the pecking order, a 7-4/5-3 JMU or a 7-4/5-3 TU that didn't play head to head? Lets see:

-JMU would be 1-3 vs playoffs teams: win @ Liberty (assuming they get the BS AQ), losses Maine, @ ODU, @ UNH.
-TU would be 2-1 vs playoff teams: win @ ODU, win @ Maine, loss UNH.
TU would get the nod over JMU here.

-Losses to non playoff teams: JMU would have zero. TU would have 2 (UD, @ URI)
-Bad losses (losses to teams that finished with losing records: JMU would have zero. TU would have one: @ URI.
JMU would get the nod over TU here.

JMU would have won their last 2 games. TU would have lost their last 2. JMU would get the nod over TU here.

If JMU & TU both finished 7-4/5-3 (not likely, but a decent chance) you could make an arguement for either team to be 4th in the CAA pecking order of playoff teams. That would create an interesting dilemna for the committee if there was only room for 4 CAA teams....

[UNHWildCats]

Scenario where JMU could be the 4th CAA team IF JMU can win the next 2:

ODU: Even if lose to W&M to finish 8-3/5-3 are a mortal lock.

Maine: Has left Umass & UNH. Even if they lost both of those to finish 7-4/5-3 would be ahead of a 7-4/5-3 JMU because won head to head.

UNH: Has left @ Towson & Maine. Even if they lost both of those to finish 7-4/5-3 would be ahead of JMU because won head to head.

Towson: Has left UNH & @ URI. IF they lost both of those would be 7-4/5-3. Its not out of the realm of possibility that TU would drop both of those. Them hosting UNH is this week's CAA Game of the Week is a tossup. TU will be favored @ URI, but URI did beat UD and W&M at home, so its not inconceiveable at home on senior day they would upset TU.

IF this happened, who would be ahead in the pecking order, a 7-4/5-3 JMU or a 7-4/5-3 TU that didn't play head to head? Lets see:

-JMU would be 1-3 vs playoffs teams: win @ Liberty (assuming they get the BS AQ), losses Maine, @ ODU, @ UNH.
-TU would be 2-1 vs playoff teams: win @ ODU, win @ Maine, loss UNH.
TU would get the nod over JMU here.

-Losses to non playoff teams: JMU would have zero. TU would have 2 (UD, @ URI)
-Bad losses (losses to teams that finished with losing records: JMU would have zero. TU would have one: @ URI.
JMU would get the nod over TU here.

JMU would have won their last 2 games. TU would have lost their last 2. JMU would get the nod over TU here.

If JMU & TU both finished 7-4/5-3 (not likely, but a decent chance) you could make an arguement for either team to be 4th in the CAA pecking order of playoff teams. That would create an interesting dilemna for the committee if there was only room for 4 CAA teams....

looking at the playoffs as a whole there is no stand out 20th team. Of the borderline teams JMU tops them if they win out and the CAA could again be a 5 bid league... no reason to think a JMU 7-4 knocks any other CAA teams out...

[Purple Reign]

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by UNHWildCats » Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:24 am

Montana State
Montana
Stony Brook
Towson
New Hampshire
Maine
Old Dominion
Norfolk State
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Albany
Eastern Kentucky
Lehigh
Georgia Southern
Wofford
Furman
Appalachian State
Sam Houston State

I would not pencil Wofford in just yet. They only have 6 D-1 wins and they have to play Ga So and go to Chattanooga.

[DSUrocks07]

the committee is convinced that CAA/SoCon is as close as FCS comes to God.

You'd have to go back to 2002 to find a final that didn't have a CAA or SoCon team in it. 10 of the last 16 finalists (7 of last 8 champs) were either a CAA or SoCon team. Do you think perhaps the committtee might actually be correct in this case?

Since 2002, how many spots in the playoffs were held by CAA or SoCon teams?