How many teams will the Big Sky get into the playoffs?

BDKJMU · Post by **BDKJMU** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:06 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:

Correct statement: The the Big Sky had FCS patsies nearby like the CAA, they could get 6-8 teams in
We have no choice but to schedule DII teams. Plus, most of the DII teams are on the level of the FCS patsies you guys are scheduling. JMU is playing St. Francis and Alcorn State
No choice but tio schedule Div II teams? Excuses, excuses.

And JMU is being smart to schedule St Francis and Alcorn St considering have a guaranteed loss vs likely Top 10 WVU.

Hey genius, how about you tell the class how many non-Big Sky, full scholly FCS teams are left in the western US?[/quote]

JMU is paying Alcorn to fly to JMU (934 miles Alcorn, MS to Harrisonburg, VA) for a one and done. Its called opening up your checkbook.

SuperHornet · Post by **SuperHornet** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:20 pm

Opening WHAT checkbook? Have you bothered to check the finances of teams out west? Sac once got Hofstra to come out here as part of a home-and-home, but now eastern teams tend to avoid that, Liberty @ Montana notwithstanding.

Post by **Grizalltheway** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:12 pm

BDKJMU wrote:
Grizalltheway wrote:
No choice but tio schedule Div II teams? Excuses, excuses.

And JMU is being smart to schedule St Francis and Alcorn St considering have a guaranteed loss vs likely Top 10 WVU.
Hey genius, how about you tell the class how many non-Big Sky, full scholly FCS teams are left in the western US?

JMU is paying Alcorn to fly to JMU (934 miles Alcorn, MS to Harrisonburg, VA) for a one and done. Its called opening up your checkbook.[/quote]

Yeah, and JMU is doing that to make money on a home game, not to challenge their team in anyway. Alcorn, seriously?

DII Central Washington would beat the pants off of their sorry asses.

Schools like UM and JMU have the luxury of being able to bring in decent opponents (Liberty) or flying across the country to play App. Schools like NAU who don't bring in a lot of coin have no choice but to host a cheap D-II or take an FBS payday. Just accept that the FCS landscape out west is entirely different than it is back east, and move on.

SuperHornet · Post by **SuperHornet** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:04 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:
Yeah, and JMU is doing that to make money on a home game, not to challenge their team in anyway. Alcorn, seriously? DII Central Washington would beat the pants off of their sorry asses.

Schools like UM and JMU have the luxury of being able to bring in decent opponents (Liberty) or flying across the country to play App. Schools like NAU who don't bring in a lot of coin have no choice but to host a cheap D-II or take an FBS payday. Just accept that the FCS landscape out west is entirely different than it is back east, and move on.

Post by **EWURanger** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:09 pm

We seemed to have abandoned the usual DII game in favor of a second FBS game...At least if we can somehow beat a demoralized Idaho squad it'll count. I'd rather not play any DII's and play only one FBS, but there really aren't any other options out west. A home and home with a team out East would be cool, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

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Post by **Screamin_Eagle174** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:12 pm

So much quote fail in this thread.

uofmman1122 · Post by **uofmman1122** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:16 pm

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:So much quote fail in this thread.

No kidding

Also, Griz get into the playoffs this year. If we had a D-II I'd be worried, but we don't.

Post by **dbackjon** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:24 pm

BDKJMU wrote:
JMU is paying Alcorn to fly to JMU (934 miles Alcorn, MS to Harrisonburg, VA) for a one and done. Its called opening up your checkbook.

wOW - 934 WHOLE MILES?

Most of NAU's conference games involve trips longer than that.

Post by **EWURanger** » Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:26 pm

dbackjon wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:
JMU is paying Alcorn to fly to JMU (934 miles Alcorn, MS to Harrisonburg, VA) for a one and done. Its called opening up your checkbook.
wOW - 934 WHOLE MILES?

Most of NAU's conference games involve trips longer than that.

Ah, give 'em a break. That's a long ways for folks on the east coast.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Mike Johnson · Post by **Mike Johnson** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:07 am

uofmman1122 wrote:Also, Griz get into the playoffs this year. If we had a D-II I'd be worried, but we don't.

Big Sky teams play 8 non-Big Sky FCS teams this year: San Diego, South Dakota, Appalachian State, Liberty, Drake, Stephen F. Austin, South Dakota State, McNeese State. San Diego and Drake are non-scholarship. Montana plays 3 of the FCS teams: South Dakota, Appalachian State, and Liberty. This does add to Montana's playoff chances.

6 Big Sky teams play a fellow conference team as a non-conference game: Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, North Dakota, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State.

There are 17 games against FBS teams: Nebraska, Washington State, Arizona State, Utah, Washington, Colorado, California, BYU, San Diego State, Wyoming, Air Force, UNLV, Fresno State, Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho, New Mexico State.

There are 6 games against NCAA Division II teams: Chadron State, Ft. Lewis, Colorado Mesa, New Mexico Highlands, Azusa Pacific, South Dakota Mines.

There are 2 games against NAIA teams: Black Hills St, Carroll College.

I ran the Big Sky schedule 10,000 times in computer simulation, with win probabilities based on Sagarin and Massey recent ratings, and accounting for home field advantage, with the teams achieving 7 or more Division I wins the following number of times:

Montana 5850
Cal Poly 5078
Montana State 4303
Weber State 2147
Eastern Washington 2033
Southern Utah 1233
North Dakota 971
Northern Arizona 515
Sacramento State 497
Portland State 362
UC Davis 328
Northern Colorado 87
Idaho State 48

And the number of teams achieving 7 or more Division I wins distributed among the 10,000 runs as follows:

0 236
1 1692
2 3779
3 3114
4 1041
5 132
6 6
7 0
8 0

Telling me that most likely 2 or 3 teams will achieve 7 or more wins, but there is a slim chance for as many as 6 and a small chance everybody beats up each other so much (and loses non-conference games) that nobody gets to 7 wins.

Post by **kalm** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:51 am

SuperHornet wrote:
Grizalltheway wrote:

Schools like UM and JMU have the luxury of being able to bring in decent opponents (Liberty) or flying across the country to play App. Schools like NAU who don't bring in a lot of coin have no choice but to host a cheap D-II or take an FBS payday. Just accept that the FCS landscape out west is entirely different than it is back east, and move on.

X 6.93

Darell1976 · Post by **Darell1976** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:34 pm

Mike Johnson wrote:
uofmman1122 wrote:Also, Griz get into the playoffs this year. If we had a D-II I'd be worried, but we don't.
Big Sky teams play 8 non-Big Sky FCS teams this year: San Diego, South Dakota, Appalachian State, Liberty, Drake, Stephen F. Austin, South Dakota State, McNeese State. San Diego and Drake are non-scholarship. Montana plays 3 of the FCS teams: South Dakota, Appalachian State, and Liberty. This does add to Montana's playoff chances.

6 Big Sky teams play a fellow conference team as a non-conference game: Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, North Dakota, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State.

There are 17 games against FBS teams: Nebraska, Washington State, Arizona State, Utah, Washington, Colorado, California, BYU, San Diego State, Wyoming, Air Force, UNLV, Fresno State, Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho, New Mexico State.

There are 6 games against NCAA Division II teams: Chadron State, Ft. Lewis, Colorado Mesa, New Mexico Highlands, Azusa Pacific, South Dakota Mines.

There are 2 games against NAIA teams: Black Hills St, Carroll College.

I ran the Big Sky schedule 10,000 times in computer simulation, with win probabilities based on Sagarin and Massey recent ratings, and accounting for home field advantage, with the teams achieving 7 or more Division I wins the following number of times:

Montana 5850
Cal Poly 5078
Montana State 4303
Weber State 2147
Eastern Washington 2033
Southern Utah 1233
North Dakota 971
Northern Arizona 515
Sacramento State 497
Portland State 362
UC Davis 328
Northern Colorado 87
Idaho State 48

And the number of teams achieving 7 or more Division I wins distributed among the 10,000 runs as follows:

0 236
1 1692
2 3779
3 3114
4 1041
5 132
6 6
7 0
8 0

Telling me that most likely 2 or 3 teams will achieve 7 or more wins, but there is a slim chance for as many as 6 and a small chance everybody beats up each other so much (and loses non-conference games) that nobody gets to 7 wins.

Given the offseason problems I don't see this happening. Montana is IMO a bubble team for the playoffs. Cal Poly and MSU for the title. A 3rd string QB starting the season. Lots of question marks in Missoula. I wouldn't guarantee them 7 wins unless their QB matures quickly.

Post by **Screamin_Eagle174** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:22 pm

Darell1976 wrote:
Mike Johnson wrote:
Big Sky teams play 8 non-Big Sky FCS teams this year: San Diego, South Dakota, Appalachian State, Liberty, Drake, Stephen F. Austin, South Dakota State, McNeese State. San Diego and Drake are non-scholarship. Montana plays 3 of the FCS teams: South Dakota, Appalachian State, and Liberty. This does add to Montana's playoff chances.

6 Big Sky teams play a fellow conference team as a non-conference game: Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, North Dakota, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State.

There are 17 games against FBS teams: Nebraska, Washington State, Arizona State, Utah, Washington, Colorado, California, BYU, San Diego State, Wyoming, Air Force, UNLV, Fresno State, Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho, New Mexico State.

There are 6 games against NCAA Division II teams: Chadron State, Ft. Lewis, Colorado Mesa, New Mexico Highlands, Azusa Pacific, South Dakota Mines.

There are 2 games against NAIA teams: Black Hills St, Carroll College.

I ran the Big Sky schedule 10,000 times in computer simulation, with win probabilities based on Sagarin and Massey recent ratings, and accounting for home field advantage, with the teams achieving 7 or more Division I wins the following number of times:

Montana 5850
Cal Poly 5078
Montana State 4303
Weber State 2147
Eastern Washington 2033
Southern Utah 1233
North Dakota 971
Northern Arizona 515
Sacramento State 497
Portland State 362
UC Davis 328
Northern Colorado 87
Idaho State 48

And the number of teams achieving 7 or more Division I wins distributed among the 10,000 runs as follows:

0 236
1 1692
2 3779
3 3114
4 1041
5 132
6 6
7 0
8 0

Telling me that most likely 2 or 3 teams will achieve 7 or more wins, but there is a slim chance for as many as 6 and a small chance everybody beats up each other so much (and loses non-conference games) that nobody gets to 7 wins.
Given the offseason problems I don't see this happening. Montana is IMO a bubble team for the playoffs. Cal Poly and MSU for the title. A 3rd string QB starting the season. Lots of question marks in Missoula. I wouldn't guarantee them 7 wins unless their QB matures quickly.

Like Mike said, he used the Sagarin and Massey ratings, which have the Griz way overvalued.

uofmman1122 · Post by **uofmman1122** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:48 pm

I honestly don't think you guys were paying attention at all last year. As far as our offense is concerned, we don't need an all world QB to win games. Our strength last year was our run offense, and it'll pretty much still be there.

As long as our QB, whoever it is, doesn't throw three INTs per game, we'll be okay.

As far as off the field stuff, yeah. That could definitely cause problems, and is a big cause for concern, but losing JJ in no way dooms our season. He was basically the Alex Smith of FCS last year.

If we somehow lose Dan Moore and Peter Nguyen to injury or something, then yeah, we're pretty screwed.

The only thing that REALLY has me worried is our pass defense, especially in this league.

Honestly I think the only way we don't make the playoffs is if the NCAA stamps a postseason ban on us this year.

Darell1976 · Post by **Darell1976** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:23 pm

uofmman1122 wrote:I honestly don't think you guys were paying attention at all last year. As far as our offense is concerned, we don't need an all world QB to win games. Our strength last year was our run offense, and it'll pretty much still be there.

As long as our QB, whoever it is, doesn't throw three INTs per game, we'll be okay.

As far as off the field stuff, yeah. That could definitely cause problems, and is a big cause for concern, but losing JJ in no way dooms our season. He was basically the Alex Smith of FCS last year.

If we somehow lose Dan Moore and Peter Nguyen to injury or something, then yeah, we're pretty screwed.

The only thing that REALLY has me worried is our pass defense, especially in this league.

Honestly I think the only way we don't make the playoffs is if the NCAA stamps a postseason ban on us this year.

How about the different coaching staff. How much of that will affect your team this season?

SuperHornet · Post by **SuperHornet** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:38 pm

The Griz have a history of not missing a beat with the changing of a coaching staff going back at least 20 years. But that's not something the average UND fan would be privvy to....

uofmman1122 · Post by **uofmman1122** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:30 pm

Darell1976 wrote:
uofmman1122 wrote:I honestly don't think you guys were paying attention at all last year. As far as our offense is concerned, we don't need an all world QB to win games. Our strength last year was our run offense, and it'll pretty much still be there.

As long as our QB, whoever it is, doesn't throw three INTs per game, we'll be okay.

As far as off the field stuff, yeah. That could definitely cause problems, and is a big cause for concern, but losing JJ in no way dooms our season. He was basically the Alex Smith of FCS last year.

If we somehow lose Dan Moore and Peter Nguyen to injury or something, then yeah, we're pretty screwed.

The only thing that REALLY has me worried is our pass defense, especially in this league.

Honestly I think the only way we don't make the playoffs is if the NCAA stamps a postseason ban on us this year.
How about the different coaching staff. How much of that will affect your team this season?

Well, it remains to be seen, but I don't see it affecting us too much. This isn't 2010 when we had a brand new coach bringing in a completely new system on both sides of the ball. We'll know a lot more in the next few weeks.

Biggest loss is obviously Pflugrad. Most players considered him an offensive genius, and our Oregon Spread was his design. It failed miserably in 2010 because we still had Bobby Ball players, and not spread players.

The good news is that our new OC and HC are coming right from his staff. Granted, Rosenbach is new, but I honestly see him as an improvement over our last OC. He certainly has more experience. During spring, Pflu and Rosie were trying to get a little more vertical in our offense, but now I think we'll see a more ground-based attack, at least for the first few games. Delaney was our RB coach, and honestly his coming to UM when our best ever RB was a complete unknown WR says a lot about his talent.

So as far as offense is concerned, they aren't really changing anything. You'll still see us running 80 plays a game in the hurry up Oregon offense. It might just be slightly different in terms of run-pass ratio.

As far as defense is concerned, I think we have the best possible replacement for our DC we could ask for. The D will basically be the same attacking style, but probably toned back just a little bit due to our inexperienced secondary. As I said, our pass D is the only thing that worries me.

We have some new assistants, most notably a new ST coach replacing a guy many Griz fans thought was terrible, as our ST play took huge steps backwards after Hauck left.

Granted, I'm biased, obviously, but I do know a shit ton more about this team than most everyone saying we're gonna go 5-6. I think 7-4 is absolute worst case scenario this year, unless we go all 2011 EWU and lose half our team to injuries.

Post by **Screamin_Eagle174** » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:24 pm

uofmman1122 wrote:
Darell1976 wrote:
How about the different coaching staff. How much of that will affect your team this season?
Well, it remains to be seen, but I don't see it affecting us too much. This isn't 2010 when we had a brand new coach bringing in a completely new system on both sides of the ball. We'll know a lot more in the next few weeks.

Biggest loss is obviously Pflugrad. Most players considered him an offensive genius, and our Oregon Spread was his design. It failed miserably in 2010 because we still had Bobby Ball players, and not spread players.

The good news is that our new OC and HC are coming right from his staff. Granted, Rosenbach is new, but I honestly see him as an improvement over our last OC. He certainly has more experience. During spring, Pflu and Rosie were trying to get a little more vertical in our offense, but now I think we'll see a more ground-based attack, at least for the first few games. Delaney was our RB coach, and honestly his coming to UM when our best ever RB was a complete unknown WR says a lot about his talent.

So as far as offense is concerned, they aren't really changing anything. You'll still see us running 80 plays a game in the hurry up Oregon offense. It might just be slightly different in terms of run-pass ratio.

As far as defense is concerned, I think we have the best possible replacement for our DC we could ask for. The D will basically be the same attacking style, but probably toned back just a little bit due to our inexperienced secondary. As I said, our pass D is the only thing that worries me.

We have some new assistants, most notably a new ST coach replacing a guy many Griz fans thought was terrible, as our ST play took huge steps backwards after Hauck left.

Granted, I'm biased, obviously, but I do know a shit ton more about this team than most everyone saying we're gonna go 5-6. I think 7-4 is absolute worst case scenario this year, unless we go all 2011 EWU and lose half our team to injuries.

Two thirds.

Post by **Grizalltheway** » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:38 am

Well, this should be a fun season. Either we'll have a decent to good year and be able to shove it in the haters' faces, or we'll have a down year (for us, at least) and we'll never hear the end of the a-toad-a-so's.

Post by **mlbowl** » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:03 am

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote: he used the Sagarin and Massey ratings, which have the Griz way overvalued.

What's new...the Griz are overrated every year.

Post by **SDHornet** » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:14 am

SuperHornet wrote:The Griz have a history of not missing a beat with the changing of a coaching staff going back at least 20 years. But that's not something the average UND fan would be privvy to....

Thanks for your input SuperGriz. Hey Mxvswdifjwenf, put your mouthpiece back on his leash.

JackParty · Post by **JackParty** » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:37 am

Can't blame you for being NAU Doubters.

Time will tell. Can't wait.

Normally I refrain from saying "I told you so" but I better brush up on my cooking. I will be serving up some crow for you AZGrizz

Let the games begin!

GoAgs72 · Post by **GoAgs72** » Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:31 am

The problem for the rest of us is that when we're bad, we're bad - when Montana is bad they're still good, maybe not great but at least good.

Post by **AZGrizFan** » Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:38 am

JackParty wrote:Can't blame you for being NAU Doubters.

Time will tell. Can't wait.

Normally I refrain from saying "I told you so" but I better brush up on my cooking. I will be serving up some crow for you AZGrizz

Let the games begin!

The day NAU beats the Griz ain't happening in your lifetime.

Post by **Grizalltheway** » Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:04 am

GoAgs72 wrote:The problem for the rest of us is that when we're bad, we're bad - when Montana is bad they're still good, maybe not great but at least good.

SOMEBODY gets it.

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