2013 NFC B/West Thread

[Screamin_Eagle174]

• Arizona should be improved with a decently competent QB in Palmer this year. Only one way to go from 58-0, AMIRITE!?
• St. Louis will be entertaining to watch as they are young and talented, and gave everyone in the division fits last year. If Bradford can take the next step and prove he's more than an average QB, the Rams might contend for the second wild card spot.
• San Francisco should adapt reasonably well to the loss of Crabtree with excellent schemes and play calling from Harbaugh. Prove it year for Kaepernick as the starter from the get go, minus his security blanket.
• Seattle's division title aspirations hinge on how well they can survive the first half of the season with the pass rush in flux. Bruce Irvin will be out the first four, Clemons could start the season on the PUP, and Avril is dealing with a plantar faciitis injury.

My prediction:
SEA: 12-4
SF: 11-5
STL: 10-6
AZ: 7-9


Discuss.

[uofmman1122]

SF - 14-2

Losing Crabtree sucks, but people often talk about it like Vernon Davis, the best tight end in the NFL, suddenly disappeared. I think they'll work him in more nicely in the passing game this year now that Kaep has had a full offseason as the starter. I also am of the opinion that the SF D can make good players into great ones (watch Goldson have a worse year than last year in TB ). I have faith the ground attack will be enough to win most games, Kaep will show last year wasn't a fluke, and Harbaugh and that beast D lead them to the best record in football, assuming no more huge injuries. A healthy 49ers team is still the best team in the NFL, IMO.

SEA - 12-4

Don't see them losing at home again this year, but they split with the 49ers. Until they show they're not a completely different team on the road, it'll be tough to win more than 12. However, if Harvin can stay healthy all year (don't think he will at all), I could see them getting to 13 wins, but with all the early suspensions they could dig a hole pretty early.

STL - 10-6

Fisher has this team moving back in the right direction, and they'd have a good/great shot if they were in another division. SEA and SF are too strong, and I don't think they go 4-1-1 against the rest of the division again this year.

AZ - 6-10

Like SE said, with Palmer throwing, I'm sure they'll seem better, but they have a lot more problems than just QB. It also doesn't help that they're playing in the best division in the NFL.

[SuperHornet]

That looks pretty good, though I'd flip-flop SF and StL (with a decent possibility that StL could win the division). You might be a bit optimistic for AZ.

The Whiners could be in a world of hurt if they lose Kaepernick, or if he endures a bad case of sophomore jinx (not that such is guaranteed, of course). McCoy hasn't done anything, and the other two haven't taken a regular season snap to the best of my knowledge. The Seahawks are in a slightly better position with Brady Quinn as the #2 guy, despite the fact that they only have three QBs signed right now. St Louis is in a position similar to SF, without a decent backup, as is AZ. What one would expect would be a proven starter, a proven backup, and a youngster willing to learn. Miami had this for years with Don Strock as their backup (though much of that time was without the young third stringer, as two QBs was the usual policy). Now, its hard to find a team with two decent QBs without a controversy.

[uofmman1122]

That looks pretty good, though I'd flip-flop SF and StL (with a decent possibility that StL could win the division). You might be a bit optimistic for AZ.

The Whiners could be in a world of hurt if they lose Kaepernick, or if he endures a bad case of sophomore jinx (not that such is guaranteed, of course). McCoy hasn't done anything, and the other two haven't taken a regular season snap to the best of my knowledge. The Seahawks are in a slightly better position with Brady Quinn as the #2 guy, despite the fact that they only have three QBs signed right now. St Louis is in a position similar to SF, without a decent backup, as is AZ. What one would expect would be a proven starter, a proven backup, and a youngster willing to learn. Miami had this for years with Don Strock as their backup (though much of that time was without the young third stringer, as two QBs was the usual policy). Now, its hard to find a team with two decent QBs without a controversy.

You're basing your entire assessment on the strength of each team's backup QB????

[SuperHornet]

Teams HAVE gone in the tank without their backup QB. Backup QBs have ALSO taken their teams to the Super Bowl (the Rams and the Raiders quickly come to mind).

[Screamin_Eagle174]

SF - 14-2

Losing Crabtree sucks, but people often talk about it like Vernon Davis, the best tight end in the NFL, suddenly disappeared. I think they'll work him in more nicely in the passing game this year now that Kaep has had a full offseason as the starter. I also am of the opinion that the SF D can make good players into great ones (watch Goldson have a worse year than last year in TB ). I have faith the ground attack will be enough to win most games, Kaep will show last year wasn't a fluke, and Harbaugh and that beast D lead them to the best record in football, assuming no more huge injuries. A healthy 49ers team is still the best team in the NFL, IMO.

SEA - 12-4

Don't see them losing at home again this year, but they split with the 49ers. Until they show they're not a completely different team on the road, it'll be tough to win more than 12. However, if Harvin can stay healthy all year (don't think he will at all), I could see them getting to 13 wins, but with all the early suspensions they could dig a hole pretty early.

STL - 10-6

Fisher has this team moving back in the right direction, and they'd have a good/great shot if they were in another division. SEA and SF are too strong, and I don't think they go 4-1-1 against the rest of the division again this year.

AZ - 6-10

Like SE said, with Palmer throwing, I'm sure they'll seem better, but they have a lot more problems than just QB. It also doesn't help that they're playing in the best division in the NFL.

Pretty sure Gronk is the best TE in football.

Kaep will have to develop a better rapport with Davis and not hang him out to dry with the high passes, lest he get Kamtrak'd again. Kaep will also have to prove he's not just a one read QB who can run. I highly doubt SF gets 13 wins, let alone 14 with all of the unknowns.

As for Seattle being a "completely different team on the road," bullshit. Our six losses last year (all on the road of course, including playoffs) were by a combined 26 points... 4.3 points a game. Four, and arguably five (Miami) of those losses came before Carroll took the restraints off the play calling to bring along Wilson along slowly. Considering that he's had a full season of experience, he's no longer is splitting reps three ways, he rarely if ever leaves the film room if he's not on the practice field, and the way he finished last season (best QBR in the NFL since week 8)... I'm not worried about how we'll perform on the road.

[uofmman1122]

SF - 14-2

Losing Crabtree sucks, but people often talk about it like Vernon Davis, the best tight end in the NFL, suddenly disappeared. I think they'll work him in more nicely in the passing game this year now that Kaep has had a full offseason as the starter. I also am of the opinion that the SF D can make good players into great ones (watch Goldson have a worse year than last year in TB ). I have faith the ground attack will be enough to win most games, Kaep will show last year wasn't a fluke, and Harbaugh and that beast D lead them to the best record in football, assuming no more huge injuries. A healthy 49ers team is still the best team in the NFL, IMO.

SEA - 12-4

Don't see them losing at home again this year, but they split with the 49ers. Until they show they're not a completely different team on the road, it'll be tough to win more than 12. However, if Harvin can stay healthy all year (don't think he will at all), I could see them getting to 13 wins, but with all the early suspensions they could dig a hole pretty early.

STL - 10-6

Fisher has this team moving back in the right direction, and they'd have a good/great shot if they were in another division. SEA and SF are too strong, and I don't think they go 4-1-1 against the rest of the division again this year.

AZ - 6-10

Like SE said, with Palmer throwing, I'm sure they'll seem better, but they have a lot more problems than just QB. It also doesn't help that they're playing in the best division in the NFL.

Pretty sure Gronk is the best TE in football.

Kaep will have to develop a better rapport with Davis and not hang him out to dry with the high passes, lest he get Kamtrak'd again. Kaep will also have to prove he's not just a one read QB who can run. I highly doubt SF gets 13 wins, let alone 14 with all of the unknowns.

As for Seattle being a "completely different team on the road," bullshit. Our six losses last year (all on the road of course, including playoffs) were by a combined 26 points... 4.3 points a game. Four, and arguably five (Miami) of those losses came before Carroll took the restraints off the play calling to bring along Wilson along slowly. Considering that he's had a full season of experience, he's no longer is splitting reps three ways, he rarely if ever leaves the film room if he's not on the practice field, and the way he finished last season (best QBR in the NFL since week 8)... I'm not worried about how we'll perform on the road.

Dude, losses are still losses.

Just like you, I could rationalize everything about Kaep getting way better and having our monster pass rush back that we lost at the end of the year (and yet still went to the Super Bowl), and the numbers to show Davis was used just fine against Atlanta and Baltimore, etc.

San Francisco and Seattle are gonna be the best teams in the NFC, and I could see either team win 13 games.

[Mvemjsunpx]

I expect Seattle & San Francisco to underachieve because NFL D-Coordinators will start to figure out the zone read.

Arizona's offense will improve with Palmer, but their run defense needs to better than last year.

I might be inclined to pick the Rams as a surprise division winner here, if they hadn't lost Steven Jackson to the Falcons.

[tampajag]

which ever team has the best 3rd QB will win the division.

[uofmman1122]

I expect Seattle & San Francisco to underachieve because NFL D-Coordinators will start to figure out the zone read.

Arizona's offense will improve with Palmer, but their run defense needs to better than last year.

I might be inclined to pick the Rams as a surprise division winner here, if they hadn't lost Steven Jackson to the Falcons.

It's a good thing Kaep and Wilson are fantastic passers, because "figuring out the zone read" isn't going to shut down either team. The Niners ran zone read less than 10% of their offensive snaps last season.

[Grizalltheway]

which ever team has the best 3rd QB will win the division.

This guy gets it.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I expect Seattle & San Francisco to underachieve because NFL D-Coordinators will start to figure out the zone read.

Arizona's offense will improve with Palmer, but their run defense needs to better than last year.

I might be inclined to pick the Rams as a surprise division winner here, if they hadn't lost Steven Jackson to the Falcons.

It's a good thing Kaep and Wilson are fantastic passers, because "figuring out the zone read" isn't going to shut down either team. The Niners ran zone read less than 10% of their offensive snaps last season.

Exactly. Not to mention anything defenses do to shut down the read option is going to open up a weakness somewhere else for an offense to attack.

EDIT: Here's a good discussion on Russell Wilson and how defenses will adjust in 2013, specifically the read option.

http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=577&a=9957170&p=3&n=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Mvemjsunpx]

I expect Seattle & San Francisco to underachieve because NFL D-Coordinators will start to figure out the zone read.

Arizona's offense will improve with Palmer, but their run defense needs to better than last year.

I might be inclined to pick the Rams as a surprise division winner here, if they hadn't lost Steven Jackson to the Falcons.

It's a good thing Kaep and Wilson are fantastic passers, because "figuring out the zone read" isn't going to shut down either team. The Niners ran zone read less than 10% of their offensive snaps last season.

Where did I say "shut them down?" I just said they'd underachieve, not that they'd go 5-11.

If you think they're "fantastic" passers, you weren't watching the same games I was. There are many NFL QBs that are more accurate throwers than those two. They seemed to have a disproportionate amount of wide-open receivers, probably due to the defense looking for other things (they didn't throw the ball a ton, either). Wilson & Kaepernick are known commodities now, & they'll have to adjust a bit to find equal success.


Short answer: there's a reason the term "sophomore slump" exists.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

It's a good thing Kaep and Wilson are fantastic passers, because "figuring out the zone read" isn't going to shut down either team. The Niners ran zone read less than 10% of their offensive snaps last season.

Where did I say "shut them down?" I just said they'd underachieve, not that they'd go 5-11.

If you think they're "fantastic" passers, you weren't watching the same games I was. There are many NFL QBs that are more accurate throwers than those two. They seemed to have a disproportionate amount of wide-open receivers, probably due to the defense looking for other things (they didn't throw the ball a ton, either). Wilson & Kaepernick are known commodities now, & they'll have to adjust a bit to find equal success.

You should try watching with your eyes open. There were only 6 QBs last year who had a higher completion percentage than Wilson: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/playe ... pletionPct" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you want to argue that completion percentage isn't the same as accuracy, well his ball placement was exceptional as well. http://www.fieldgulls.com/2013/5/6/4304 ... -nfl-throw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I won't speak to Kaep's numbers, but you're honestly going to tell me that Russell's passing numbers aren't fantastic, or simply the result of the read option? Check out his numbers from inside the pocket.



I'm not saying he's one of the best QBs in the NFL right now, but you're making it sounds as if he's just okay. He's clearly on his way to becoming one of the best.

Short answer: there's a reason the term "sophomore slump" exists.

Not really. There are a lot of terms out there that exist despite not holding much relevance.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... l-thoughts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some initial findings: Ten quarterbacks from 2008 through 2011 were regular starters in both their first and second seasons. Five of the 10 posted significantly higher Total QBR scores in their second seasons. Three others posted second-year Total QBR scores that were very similar to their first-season scores. Two others, Bradford and Matt Ryan, posted significantly lower scores in their second seasons.

Ryan was the only one of the bunch with a stellar first-year Total QBR score. His was 74.1 in 2008, well above the 50-point average and among the top few scores in the league. We could say he "slumped" to a 56.6 in his second season, and that is surely what people will say happened if Wilson, Luck or Griffin III aren't as good in 2013 as they were during their sensational 2012 rookie seasons.

[Mvemjsunpx]

You should try watching with your eyes open. There were only 6 QBs last year who had a higher completion percentage than Wilson: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/playe ... pletionPct" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I won't speak to Kaep's numbers, but you're honestly going to tell me that Russell's passing numbers aren't fantastic, or simply the result of the read option? Check out his numbers from inside the pocket.

Well, a read option play action is usually thrown from the pocket, but whatever…

Can the Seahawks win if they're in a situation where Wilson has to drop back & throw most every down? They may not see that situation very often, who knows… I'm skeptical, though.

Short answer: there's a reason the term "sophomore slump" exists.

Not really. There are a lot of terms out there that exist despite not holding much relevance.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... l-thoughts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some initial findings: Ten quarterbacks from 2008 through 2011 were regular starters in both their first and second seasons. Five of the 10 posted significantly higher Total QBR scores in their second seasons. Three others posted second-year Total QBR scores that were very similar to their first-season scores. Two others, Bradford and Matt Ryan, posted significantly lower scores in their second seasons.

It depends on two things: whether the QB can improve & adjust, and whether his initial success was based on something relatively "gimmicky." The whole NFL was still pretty clueless on how to defend a spread attack in 2012, and they won't stay that way forever. Wilson (& Kaepernick) certainly could have long & productive careers, but, again, I'm skeptical.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Can the Seahawks win if they're in a situation where Wilson has to drop back & throw most every down? They may not see that situation very often, who knows… I'm skeptical, though.

Only if the defense doesn't give up the lead in the final seconds. Wilson was 24/36 for 385 and 2 TDs (109.1 rating) against ATL after being down 20 mid to late 3rd quarter, and of course would've won had the defense not allowed ATL to drive 40 yards in 20 seconds to kick a FG. Miami shut down our run game (3.6 ypc) and Wilson was 21/27 for 224 and 2 TDs, rating of 125.9. But again, we held a lead late, only for the defense to give it up.

It depends on two things: whether the QB can improve & adjust, and whether his initial success was based on something relatively "gimmicky." The whole NFL was still pretty clueless on how to defend a spread attack in 2012, and they won't stay that way forever. Wilson (& Kaepernick) certainly could have long & productive careers, but, again, I'm skeptical.

The read option is only gimmicky if it's the bread and butter of your offense. The Hawks ran it only 5% of the time last season, although it was 11% or so over the last 8 games. If you watched Wilson last year, you know that he improved weekly throughout the entire season, and has done the same this offseason. One of his hallmark traits that Seahawk fans observed last year is that he never made the same mistake twice. He'll prove the skeptics wrong yet again this year, of that I have no doubt.

Hell, if you want to see the proof of RW adjusting and improving, just look at his numbers from his Jr. year at NC State, to his Sr. year at Wisconsin, to his rookie year in Seattle. Three different playbooks, three different OLs, RBs, WRs and coaches.

2010 NC State: 308/527, 58.4%, 3563 yds, 6.8 y/a, 28-14 TD-INT.
2011 Wisconsin: 225/309, 72.8%, 3175 yds, 10.3 y/a, 33-4 TD-INT.
2012 Seattle: 252/393, 64.1%, 3118 yds, 7.93 y/a, 26-10 TD-INT.

[Mvemjsunpx]

The read option is only gimmicky if it's the bread and butter of your offense. The Hawks ran it only 5% of the time last season, although it was 11% or so over the last 8 games. If you watched Wilson last year, you know that he improved weekly throughout the entire season, and has done the same this offseason. One of his hallmark traits that Seahawk fans observed last year is that he never made the same mistake twice. He'll prove the skeptics wrong yet again this year, of that I have no doubt.

Have you officially made that your catchphrase yet?


I wasn't saying the read option itself is gimmicky, just that it behaved as a gimmick because NFL defenses were so unprepared for it (kinda like running Four Verticals in recent editions of NCAA Football). And running one play 11% of the time is quite a bit.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

The read option is only gimmicky if it's the bread and butter of your offense. The Hawks ran it only 5% of the time last season, although it was 11% or so over the last 8 games. If you watched Wilson last year, you know that he improved weekly throughout the entire season, and has done the same this offseason. One of his hallmark traits that Seahawk fans observed last year is that he never made the same mistake twice. He'll prove the skeptics wrong yet again this year, of that I have no doubt.

Have you officially made that your catchphrase yet?


I wasn't saying the read option itself is gimmicky, just that it behaved as a gimmick because NFL defenses were so unprepared for it (kinda like running Four Verticals in recent editions of NCAA Football). And running one play 11% of the time is quite a bit.

Have I said that a lot?

It's not just one play, it's a bevy that are mixed in with more traditional plays that are disguised as read option. Bevell is going to have a field day calling plays with Harvin added to the mix.

[andy7171]

That looks pretty good, though I'd flip-flop SF and StL (with a decent possibility that StL could win the division). You might be a bit optimistic for AZ.

The Whiners could be in a world of hurt if they lose Kaepernick, or if he endures a bad case of sophomore jinx (not that such is guaranteed, of course). McCoy hasn't done anything, and the other two haven't taken a regular season snap to the best of my knowledge. The Seahawks are in a slightly better position with Brady Quinn as the #2 guy, despite the fact that they only have three QBs signed right now. St Louis is in a position similar to SF, without a decent backup, as is AZ. What one would expect would be a proven starter, a proven backup, and a youngster willing to learn. Miami had this for years with Don Strock as their backup (though much of that time was without the young third stringer, as two QBs was the usual policy). Now, its hard to find a team with two decent QBs without a controversy.

HO-LEE SHITBALLS!!!

[Gil Dobie]

Harbaugh will continue to rule the division with Seattle continuing to chase. Harbaugh has a winning system with players coming and going. NE of the WCB.

[andy7171]

Harbaugh will continue to rule the division with Seattle continuing to chase. Harbaugh has a winning system with players coming and going. NE of the WCB.

Yep, both runners up to the Ravens.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Harbaugh will continue to rule the division with Seattle continuing to chase. Harbaugh has a winning system with players coming and going. NE of the WCB.

We'll see. SF is relying on AJ Jenkins stepping up big time in Crabtree's absence, and a rookie holding his own at safety in lieu of Goldson's departure. The margin between SF and SEA last year was paper thin.

[Gil Dobie]

Harbaugh will continue to rule the division with Seattle continuing to chase. Harbaugh has a winning system with players coming and going. NE of the WCB.

We'll see. SF is relying on AJ Jenkins stepping up big time in Crabtree's absence, and a rookie holding his own at safety in lieu of Goldson's departure. The margin between SF and SEA last year was paper thin.

IMO, the margin is coaching. Harbaugh is slightly better than Carroll. Finishing second to loss team isn't that bad though. My Packers need a lot of help on defense to beat either of these teams.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

We'll see. SF is relying on AJ Jenkins stepping up big time in Crabtree's absence, and a rookie holding his own at safety in lieu of Goldson's departure. The margin between SF and SEA last year was paper thin.

IMO, the margin is coaching. Harbaugh is slightly better than Carroll. Finishing second to loss team isn't that bad though. My Packers need a lot of help on defense to beat either of these teams.

Can't really argue with that. Harbaugh is an outstanding coach, despite being a giant douchebag. I'd say Carroll is a much better recruiter, who employs some outstanding coaches. I think the difference will be made up by Wilson, who like Peyton Manning, is a player/coach rolled into one.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/88217/88217" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Just for you, Clenzy.

https://twitter.com/ClaytonESPN/status/ ... 1180142594" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;