CAA Power Rankings

[vutomcat]

7-5 Northern Iowa - add another team that'd get in before Villanova.

Seven wins versus 6 & they BEAT FBS Iowa State. Not led for part of the first half, but beat.

Not happening - again the committee would have to take 5 from the CAA.

I wouldn't argue if UNI gets in. The need to beat Western Illinois of course. 7-5 record with a decent schedule and close losses to those superior teams. They probably deserve to get in. I haven't looked at all the possible teams yet. Things change so quickly every weekend. It's best to wait and see. They certainly should be considered.

Regarding you thinking VU is the 5th best choice from the CAA, I disagree (shocker I know). If they beat Delaware they will be 5-3 in conference with a win over Towson , Willam and Mary and Delaware. Only Towson and Maine will have better conference records (unless UNH beats Maine). In that scenario VU has an argument that they are the logical 3rd choice given the strength of OOC schedule.

[bluehenbillk]

Back to Rankings:

1- Maine
2- Towson
3- W&M
4- UNH
5- UD
6- VU
7- StB(tie)
7- JMU(tie)
7- UR (tie)
10- URI
11-Alb

[andy7171]

If the committee didn't take 7-4 Towson last year, they sure as hell ain't taking a 6-5 team this year!

Remember it is an expanded field this year. The committee made a huge error last year. I can't believe they took UNH over Towson after Towson took them apart on the last game of the year.

Unfortunealty 6-5 looks bad regardless of quality wins. I am sure Nova would roll over what ever team they get to play in the first round, I just don't see it happening. You can still hope though.

[TribeFanInNC]

Since the CAA plays an unbalanced schedule, I thought it would be interesting to look at the comparative strength of schedule within the conference. Records reflect CAA games only, and include the records of teams scheduled for this Saturday.

Maine 7-0 24-33 (.421) Sat: UNH DNP: JMU, Tow
Tow 5-2 25-31 (.446) Sat: JMU DNP: Maine, URI
UNH 5-2 27-30 (.474) Sat: Maine DNP: Del, Rich
Del 4-3 28-29 (.491) Sat: Vil DNP: UNH, SBU
W&M 4-3 33-24 (.579) Sat: UR DNP: Alb, SBU
Vill 4-3 32-25 (.561) Sat: Del DNP: Alb, Rich
JMU 3-4 27-29 (.482) Sat: Tow DNP: Maine, URI
Rich 3-4 27-30 (.474) Sat: W&M DNP: UNH, Vill
SBU 2-5 29-28 (.509) Sat: Alb DNP: Del, W&M
URI 2-6 29-27 (.518) Sat: None DNP: JMU, Tow
Alb 0-7 31-26 (.544) Sat: SBU DNP: Vill, W&M

Discuss

[TribePride]

Since the CAA plays an unbalanced schedule, I thought it would be interesting to look at the comparative strength of schedule within the conference. Records reflect CAA games only, and include the records of teams scheduled for this Saturday.

Maine 7-0 24-33 (.421) Sat: UNH DNP: JMU, Tow
Tow 5-2 25-31 (.446) Sat: JMU DNP: Maine, URI
UNH 5-2 27-30 (.474) Sat: Maine DNP: Del, Rich
Del 4-3 28-29 (.491) Sat: Vil DNP: UNH, SBU
W&M 4-3 33-24 (.579) Sat: UR DNP: Alb, SBU
Vill 4-3 32-25 (.561) Sat: Del DNP: Alb, Rich
JMU 3-4 27-29 (.482) Sat: Tow DNP: Maine, URI
Rich 3-4 27-30 (.474) Sat: W&M DNP: UNH, Vill
SBU 2-5 29-28 (.509) Sat: Alb DNP: Del, W&M
URI 2-6 29-27 (.518) Sat: None DNP: JMU, Tow
Alb 0-7 31-26 (.544) Sat: SBU DNP: Vill, W&M

Discuss

I think perhaps a secondary issue that must be addressed in the 2014 schedule was the number of times the Tribe faced a team coming off a bye. The Tribe totally got the shaft on that as Maine, Villanova, JMU and Towson fans can attest. All 4 of those squads faced the Tribe after a bye week. Only Maine really moved the ball well as all others finished well below their offensive averages. But the Tribe offense performed below their normal averages in those 4 games against defenses who had an extra week to prepare and get healthy. Hoping for a better schedule next year, but still able to take care of business Saturday. Really wish that McBride had caught that TD in the final minutes on Saturday.

[TribePride]

I have seen a comprehensive list of the at large candidates and essentially it is 34 teams for 24 spots. and basically 18 bubble teams for only 8 spots. Therefore, with some chaos potentially in the Patriot and Southern, there could be only 6 spots left. Under that scenario, it seems impossible for the CAA to get 5 teams, and if the nightmare scenario occurs, they will get only 2.

I think W&M is likely in with a win Saturday and so is NH, but I am no longer certain. I think the order would be:

W&M, then NH, then Delaware if all 3 win Saturday. I don't think NH will win because Maine is playing for a top 4 seed and is outstanding. If NH wins though, it would be very hard to keep them out. Will look and try to post a list of all the relevant bubble teams. JMU and Villanova are not on the list I saw. The best argument either of those would have is as the 3rd team following a collapse of the 3 ahead. Even then, I would think W&M would go ahead of JMU and NH would have an argument over Villanova since they beat them. There are just not that many spots with only 13 at large.

[vutomcat]

Both interesting posts tribe fans. If we want to further peel the onion it would be interesting to see who played who away. For instance, nova played nhu and jmu away where both teams win at a 90% rate further toughening that schedule much like w&m's playing teams off byes. Of course they beat Towson on the road as well.

All CAA fans know how difficult it is to win on the road

[TribePride]

Both interesting posts tribe fans. If we want to further peel the onion it would be interesting to see who played who away. For instance, nova played nhu and jmu away where both teams win at a 90% rate further toughening that schedule much like w&m's playing teams off byes. Of course they beat Towson on the road as well.

All CAA fans know how difficult it is to win on the road

It probably sounds ridiculous at this point, but both NH and Villanova would be in much better shape at NH(7-4) and Villanova(6-5) right now. Not playing the 12th game really hurts. The Tribe got snubbed in 2008 at 7-4. The committee took Maine at 8-4 that year. The Tribe lost its last game in overtime to Richmond. Had the Tribe won, it would have gone. The Spiders went on to win the national title! I would hope Villanova will schedule a 12th game next year.

[TribePride]

Towson
Delaware
W&M
JMU
UNH
Northern Arizona
Montana
Montana State
Southern Utah
Charleston Southern/CCU
SC State
Youngstown State
SD State
No. Iowa
Jacksonville State
Tenn. State
Tenn.-Martin
Lehigh
Fordham
Samford/Chattanooga
Furman
Sam Houston State
McNeese State


These are the prospective at large teams. Only 13 of these teams can go. As you will see when you start to pull them the bids go fast. If Lehigh wins, you can take them off the list(AQ) and same for one of the 3 in the SoCon. Montana, Towson, Northern Arizona and Fordham are likely in. Add Coastal if CSU beats Liberty. Thus, only 8 spots left. You can see why some have the CAA only getting 3 bids.

[vutomcat]

Where did you get the list tribe pride?


And no, your last post does not sound ridiculous.

[TribePride]

I'm willing to consider a few more teams, but the point is made. 13 at large requires a good season. I really think someone 7-5 will get in. Will that give Nova an argument if they beat Delaware. Absolutely. What someone needs to find time to do(I'm sure the committee is doing it) is to rank the at larges. Then you would know actually what has to happen. Big Sky is talking possibly 5 and I could see it. I could also see 3(based on certain results this weekend). CAA could get as little as 2, and i guess 5 in a crazy scenario. Play some out and see what you come up with. The Tribe is likely in with a win and out with a loss. Not as sure about NH and Delaware, but probably the same. If all 3 lose, who knows and Nova controls one of those games.

[vutomcat]

Ok. Agreed your team is in with a win. Richmond qb looked good last week but your D is the best I have seen. You should be in and be able to watch the unh,Delaware, JmU fans squirm this Saturday. This Nova fan knows he is in the minority that his team has a chance. I'm having fun with the speculation.

[TribeFanInNC]

Ok. Agreed your team is in with a win. Richmond qb looked good last week but your D is the best I have seen. You should be in and be able to watch the unh,Delaware, JmU fans squirm this Saturday. This Nova fan knows he is in the minority that his team has a chance. I'm having fun with the speculation.

That's one of the great parts of the playoff system. You know there are always teams on the bubble, and when it's your team and they get in, it is such a moment of elation. (We won't discuss those times when the cards fall the other way)

[Twyxx7]

It probably sounds ridiculous at this point, but both NH and Villanova would be in much better shape at NH(7-4) and Villanova(6-5) right now. Not playing the 12th game really hurts. The Tribe got snubbed in 2008 at 7-4. The committee took Maine at 8-4 that year. The Tribe lost its last game in overtime to Richmond. Had the Tribe won, it would have gone. The Spiders went on to win the national title! I would hope Villanova will schedule a 12th game next year.

Agreed. Scheduling a 12th game helps, even if it is a cupcake. Besides, that's one less bye week to suffer through!

[UNHWildcat18]

JMU is going to lose vs Towson next week.
UD Is going to lose to Villanova.
W&M is going to beat Richmond.
UNH at the dungeon pulls out a miracle win vs Maine.
Maine 10-2
Towson 10-2
W&M 8-4
UNH 7-4
There are the 4 caa teams going to playoffs
If unh loses then 3 will go.

[93henfan]

JMU is going to lose vs Towson next week.
UD Is going to lose to Villanova.
W&M is going to beat Richmond.
UNH at the dungeon pulls out a miracle win vs Maine.
Maine 10-2
Towson 10-2
W&M 8-4
UNH 7-4
There are the 4 caa teams going to playoffs
If unh loses then 3 will go.

Maine is going to smoke UNH.

[TribePride]

I wouldn't say Delaware has no shot. They just need to win and then see. Very few of the 16 teams or so vying for the last 8 spots are sure things. MSU v. Montana or UT Martin for example. All bubble teams need to pull for Lehigh to win and Samford to lose. Not sure it matters if Liberty beats CSU. I think the Big South probably gets both in either way. Chattanooga at 8-4 might be out if they do not get the autobid. I think the SoCon probably gets 2, but it gets hard fast. Add up the 13 at large bids and you will see why I am concerned CAA gets only 3. Right now, I say 4 for the CAA and Big Sky. If so, check how fast you go thru 9 other bids(7 if you give the big south 2 and Fordham an at large).

[TribePride]

Here is just an early guess: These are at larges only- 13 bids

Big Sky 3(guessing Montana, NAU, and SUU)
CAA 3(guessing Towson, W&M, Delaware)
MVC 2(YSU, and mystery team due to conference strength)
SoCon 1(Chatt or Samford)
Southland 2(McNeese and Sam Houston St)
Patriot 1(Fordham)
Big South 1(CCU or CSU)

All the bids are gone- no 5th Big Sky, no 5th CAA, no Lafayette or Furman to possibly steal a bid, no 2nd MEAC team or any 2nd team for 6 of the leagues total. I'd be surprised if the MVC doesn't get 3. Now, if you are looking for the bubble to expand, all you have to do is pick off a few teams. Can NH get in? Absolutely. If Samford loses, and Furman loses, and Lehigh wins, and Sam Houston loses, then there might be 2 more bids. Win on Saturday and you can make your own bracket and see if your team fits. JMU and Villanova can at least ponder if they win on Saturday. I firmly believe 1 team with a 7-5 record will get in. If it does and a 10-2 Fordham or 10-3 CSU is left out, there will be some howling. If that 7-5 at large is from the SoCon, then no way CSU is left out. The Big South played too well against the SoCon this year to lose that argument. Not sure what the basis for conference strength is , but if it is the Sagarin, MVC is ranked #1 and CAA #2.

[BDKJMU]

Here is just an early guess: These are at larges only- 13 bids

Big Sky 3(guessing Montana, NAU, and SUU)
CAA 3(guessing Towson, W&M, Delaware)
MVC 2(YSU, and mystery team due to conference strength)
SoCon 1(Chatt or Samford)
Southland 2(McNeese and Sam Houston St)
Patriot 1(Fordham)
Big South 1(CCU or CSU)

All the bids are gone- no 5th Big Sky, no 5th CAA, no Lafayette or Furman to possibly steal a bid, no 2nd MEAC team or any 2nd team for 6 of the leagues total. I'd be surprised if the MVC doesn't get 3. Now, if you are looking for the bubble to expand, all you have to do is pick off a few teams. Can NH get in? Absolutely. If Samford loses, and Furman loses, and Lehigh wins, and Sam Houston loses, then there might be 2 more bids. Win on Saturday and you can make your own bracket and see if your team fits. JMU and Villanova can at least ponder if they win on Saturday. I firmly believe 1 team with a 7-5 record will get in. If it does and a 10-2 Fordham or 10-3 CSU is left out, there will be some howling. If that 7-5 at large is from the SoCon, then no way CSU is left out. The Big South played too well against the SoCon this year to lose that argument. Not sure what the basis for conference strength is , but if it is the Sagarin, MVC is ranked #1 and CAA #2.

OVC will likely get an at large, 9-3 TST, over a 3rd mystery MVFC.

[UNHWildcat18]

JMU is going to lose vs Towson next week.
UD Is going to lose to Villanova.
W&M is going to beat Richmond.
UNH at the dungeon pulls out a miracle win vs Maine.
Maine 10-2
Towson 10-2
W&M 8-4
UNH 7-4
There are the 4 caa teams going to playoffs
If unh loses then 3 will go.

Maine is going to smoke UNH.

They said Nova was gonna kill us at home too, and JMU for that matter(atleast beat). Only one that called that Richmond upset vs UD by the way, and I don't see you getting past nova next week. We play our ass off at home and we play our asses off vs Maine.

[vutomcat]

You had ZERO penalties against Nova and squeaked out a very lucky win. Teams that can only brat the likes of Albany on the road don't deserve to be in playoffs. I hope Maine smokes you but The UNH home field advantage is real.

[93henfan]

Maine is going to smoke UNH.

They said Nova was gonna kill us at home too, and JMU for that matter(atleast beat). Only one that called that Richmond upset vs UD by the way, and I don't see you getting past nova next week. We play our ass off at home and we play our asses off vs Maine.

I mostly just said that to get a reaction from you or MaineJeff. Carry on.

[andy7171]

If UNH beats #4 Maine and #6 Towson beats JMU. Maine already has the autobid as the CAA Champ, but how do the seeding fall? They'd be tied at 10-2.

[UNHWildcat18]

You had ZERO penalties against Nova and squeaked out a very lucky win. Teams that can only brat the likes of Albany on the road don't deserve to be in playoffs. I hope Maine smokes you but The UNH home field advantage is real.

Not that I don't disagree with two of your statements but I don't get why you mentioned albany on the road.....
UD home vs albany lucky 33-30 win, Maine vs @Albany also late in fourth squeked in 33-27 win, UNH early to mid fourth quarter pull away 37-20.... not trying to decide or state the quality of any wins for any team, hence the any given saturday part....

[bluehenbillk]

If UNH beats #4 Maine and #6 Towson beats JMU. Maine already has the autobid as the CAA Champ, but how do the seeding fall? They'd be tied at 10-2.

It's a big game for Maine this week. Yes they've already clinched the autobid but they're looking at a top 4 seed right now, which means at least 2 home games. They lose they'll probably be a 7-8 seed which means a trip to Fargo or Eastern Illinois for the quarters.

Towson if they win should get a 6-8 seed. Lose & they'll play the opening weekend, most likely on the road.