vutomcat wrote:You had ZERO penalties against Nova and squeaked out a very lucky win. Teams that can only brat the likes of Albany on the road don't deserve to be in playoffs. I hope Maine smokes you but The UNH home field advantage is real.
Not that I don't disagree with two of your statements but I don't get why you mentioned albany on the road.....
UD home vs albany lucky 33-30 win, Maine vs @Albany also late in fourth squeked in 33-27 win, UNH early to mid fourth quarter pull away 37-20.... not trying to decide or state the quality of any wins for any team, hence the any given saturday part....
I mentioned Albany on the road because it's your road win. I guess now that I've checked you beat lowly Stony Brook on the road as well. You don't have any impressive road wins for your resume. If you go to the games and watch the CAA on TV you know how hard it is for road teams to win. There were a few games this year where it was so lopsided it was ridiculous.(e.g Nova game @ UNH where you receivived ZERO penalties, De. v Richmond where Richmond had two not one TWO interceptions to end the game and both interceptions were flagged, even the De. announcers were disagreeing with the first call) So, that's why I mentioned the Albany game.
I really don't want the CAA embarrassed in the first round and I don't trust UNH to bring it on the road.
Besides, you received a gift last year. Towson was one of the best teams in the country by the end of last year and smoked you at UNH but the committee somehow saw fit to give you a bid. Having said that, if you can use that home field cooking for the Maine game and pull it out you will have a strong argument for a bid. Good luck.
1. Maine- should be the 3 or 4 seed, 1st rd bye.
2. Towson- 7 or 8 seed, 1st rd bye
3. William&mary- win and they're in, lose and goodnight.
4a. Delaware- win and hope, lose and see ya. I don't really think we will get in even with a win, but I will hold out hope anyway.
4b. New hampshire- win and pray, I think the wildcats are on life support.
5. James madison- stony brook loss was a season killer, as UR loss was to UD.
6. Villanova- to many inexplicable losses for playoffs this year.
7. Richmond- started playing well way to late.
8. Stony brook- doing a great job as spoiler.
9. Albany- some hope there for next year.
10. Rhode island- got worse and worse as season went on.
I'm good with this or any other computer rating system since they all have Nova solidly in the top 24.
11/18/2013 GPI TOP 25
Rank, School (Rating)
1. N Dakota St (1.00)
2. E Illinois (2.00)
3. E Washington (3.43)
4. SE Louisiana (5.00)
5. Maine (5.14)
6. Towson (6.71)
7. McNeese St (7.86)
8. Montana (9.57)
9. Youngstown St (11.00)
10. Sam Houston St (11.86)
11. Coastal Carolina (13.00)
12. S Dakota St (13.86)
13. Northern Iowa (15.86)
14. Princeton (16.57)
15. William & Mary (16.86)
16. Northern Arizona (18.86)
17. Bethune-Cookman (19.00)
18. Fordham (19.71)
19. Villanova (20.00)
20. S Illinois (20.14)
21. Tennessee St (21.29)
22. Old Dominion (22.00)
23. Jacksonville St (22.14)
24. Harvard (22.29)
25. TN Martin (23.86)
2. Colonial Athletic Association (33.88)
5. Maine (5.14)
6. Towson (6.71)
15. William & Mary (16.86)
19. Villanova (20.00)
26. New Hampshire (25.29)
38. Delaware (34.43)
39. James Madison (35.43)
42. Stony Brook (37.29)
44. Richmond (38.43)
89. Rhode Island (71.71)
106. Albany (81.43)
Sagarin had Towson #5, Villanova #6, W&M #7 and Maine #8. I don't understand that at all. Maine should be first of those. NDSU is #1 by a wide margin. It does speak to the strength of the league rated as #2 behind the MVC. So, if the right teams win this weekend, maybe 4 teams do go. I still think Delaware and New Hampshire have legitimate shots. Villanova and JMU have none if they lose, but if they win this weekend, who knows?
TribePride wrote:Sagarin had Towson #5, Villanova #6, W&M #7 and Maine #8. I don't understand that at all. Maine should be first of those. NDSU is #1 by a wide margin. It does speak to the strength of the league rated as #2 behind the MVC. So, if the right teams win this weekend, maybe 4 teams do go. I still think Delaware and New Hampshire have legitimate shots. Villanova and JMU have none if they lose, but if they win this weekend, who knows?
I would love to see 4 teams make it! I think the most likely scenario is you win and the Nova/Delaware winner gets in but UNH can get in with an upset against Maine too. GO CAA!
In the words of Ronald Reagan- "there you go again".
I thought you already were schooled on this and why they are useful.
Yes. They're not useful at all.
I mean you're a guy trying to make a case for a 6 win team to make the playoffs in a 12 game regular season. I take whatever you say with a grain of salt.
Whatever you guys do - please don't bring up the GPI. That thing (which poorly mimics the BCS) has been outperformed by the AGS Poll the last 4 years running.
bluehenbillk wrote:Whatever you guys do - please don't bring up the GPI. That thing (which poorly mimics the BCS) has been outperformed by the AGS Poll the last 4 years running.
Nova is #31 and Delaware #28 in the AGS poll with Harvard and Princeton ranked ahead of them who will not be in the playoffs.
There are 5 or 6 teams that figure to lose ranked ahead of them. That puts the Cats and Hens right on the bubble if they can win according to the AGS. Good news.
vutomcat wrote:Nova is #31 and Delaware #28 in the AGS poll with Harvard and Princeton ranked ahead of them who will not be in the playoffs.
There are 5 or 6 teams that figure to lose ranked ahead of them. That puts the Cats and Hens right on the bubble if they can win according to the AGS. Good news.
What about AQs Butler and Sacred Heart, both ranked below Nova? That makes the bubble a little more distant.
vutomcat wrote:Nova is #31 and Delaware #28 in the AGS poll with Harvard and Princeton ranked ahead of them who will not be in the playoffs.
There are 5 or 6 teams that figure to lose ranked ahead of them. That puts the Cats and Hens right on the bubble if they can win according to the AGS. Good news.
What about AQs Butler and Sacred Heart, both ranked below Nova? That makes the bubble a little more distant.
Yes it makes it more difficult. Trying to be positive here.
Three or four weeks ago didn't feel we would even be in the conversation. Lots has happened since then. A resounding win at URI. Lots of key losses last week. We will need similar results this week and a big win over Delaware but if those things happen we will at least be on the board. Hard to ignore those high computer rankings of Nova I think.
vutomcat wrote:Hard to ignore those high computer rankings of Nova I think.
They will try.
After Saturday we will see what kind of chance Nova has. No one can know for sure how much the committee will lean on the computer rankings. Hopefully they decide to take the teams which are obviously better, instead of the teams that had an easy schedule (and thus more wins).
vutomcat wrote:Hard to ignore those high computer rankings of Nova I think.
They will try.
After Saturday we will see what kind of chance Nova has. No one can know for sure how much the committee will lean on the computer rankings. Hopefully they decide to take the teams which are obviously better, instead of the teams that had an easy schedule (and thus more wins).
You mean the teams that didn't over-schedule, knowing that it may very well cost them a playoff birth?
Twyxx7 wrote:
They will try.
After Saturday we will see what kind of chance Nova has. No one can know for sure how much the committee will lean on the computer rankings. Hopefully they decide to take the teams which are obviously better, instead of the teams that had an easy schedule (and thus more wins).
You mean the teams that didn't over-schedule, knowing that it may very well cost them a playoff birth?
Over scheduling? Is that what they call a tough schedule in your conference? You played Oklahoma Pan Handle? Come on man! Go back to your Montana threads and hope you don't have to play us if somehow we manage to wiggle in here. We'll take care of you just like the last time we played. If you think that Polish Baseball player we used to beat you last time was good wait until you get a load of John Robertson!
Grizalltheway wrote:
You mean the teams that didn't over-schedule, knowing that it may very well cost them a playoff birth?
Over scheduling? Is that what they call a tough schedule in your conference? You played Oklahoma Pan Handle? Come on man! Go back to your Montana threads and hope you don't have to play us if somehow we manage to wiggle in here. We'll take care of you just like the last time we played. If you think that Polish Baseball player we used to beat you last time was good wait until you get a load of John Robertson!
nova didn't overschedule - they thought they had two patsies in Penn and Fordham (who knew Fordham would actually be good - they had losing records, including a 1-10 year in the year before the series with nova started) and they had the extra bye week only playing 11 games. Man, what they wouldn't give for an extra game to maybe get to 7 wins now.
vutomcat wrote:
Over scheduling? Is that what they call a tough schedule in your conference? You played Oklahoma Pan Handle? Come on man! Go back to your Montana threads and hope you don't have to play us if somehow we manage to wiggle in here. We'll take care of you just like the last time we played. If you think that Polish Baseball player we used to beat you last time was good wait until you get a load of John Robertson!
nova didn't overschedule - they thought they had two patsies in Penn and Fordham (who knew Fordham would actually be good - they had losing records, including a 1-10 year in the year before the series with nova started) and they had the extra bye week only playing 11 games. Man, what they wouldn't give for an extra game to maybe get to 7 wins now.
Yeah, Oklahoma Pan Handle State would have been a good opponent and really would have proved a lot. I'd rather be 6-5 playing real teams. Is that really a school?
GannonFan wrote:
nova didn't overschedule - they thought they had two patsies in Penn and Fordham (who knew Fordham would actually be good - they had losing records, including a 1-10 year in the year before the series with nova started) and they had the extra bye week only playing 11 games. Man, what they wouldn't give for an extra game to maybe get to 7 wins now.
Yeah, Oklahoma Pan Handle State would have been a good opponent and really would have proved a lot. I'd rather be 6-5 playing real teams. Is that really a school?
You'd rather be 6-5 and sitting at home for the playoffs? Well have fun with that and enjoy bouncy ball season.
Tom, scheduling to put yourself in the best position to make the playoffs is not rocket science:
1. Play as many games as are allowed that year (some years 11, some 12)
2. If you are in a traditional power conference, schedule games out of conference against DI teams you can beat.
That's really it. If you would rather schedule really tough DI opponents, that's up to you. But you can't come crying to the selection committee saying, well we lost in fashion to good teams.
How to set yourself up to have a hard road to the playoffs:
1. Play fewer than the maximum number of games allowed.
2. Schedule multiple games against I-A's or D2's.
vutomcat wrote:
Yeah, Oklahoma Pan Handle State would have been a good opponent and really would have proved a lot. I'd rather be 6-5 playing real teams. Is that really a school?
You'd rather be 6-5 and sitting at home for the playoffs? Well have fun with that and enjoy bouncy ball season.
We'll see...
And I fully expect to enjoy the Cats bball season. Enjoy that Montana winter. Do you play that Pan Handle powerhouse in basketball too?
GannonFan wrote:
nova didn't overschedule - they thought they had two patsies in Penn and Fordham (who knew Fordham would actually be good - they had losing records, including a 1-10 year in the year before the series with nova started) and they had the extra bye week only playing 11 games. Man, what they wouldn't give for an extra game to maybe get to 7 wins now.
Yeah, Oklahoma Pan Handle State would have been a good opponent and really would have proved a lot. I'd rather be 6-5 playing real teams. Is that really a school?
Ask W&M how they felt in 2008. W&M only played 11 games, finished, 7-4, including a loss to an FBS team. Maine finished tied with W&M (they didn't play each other) in the CAA, but went 8-4 that year, with no game against an FBS team, and they played mighty Iona (weak team, but FCS nonetheless) as their extra game. Maine gets into the playoffs on the strength of that win over Iona while W&M rues not scheduling the maximum allowed number of games. nova would've beaten Iona this year and is probably ruing that they didn't schedule them as the 12th team.
Hope the committee has learned something by those mistakes. Seems short sighted to me to just look at number of wins. I would think the goal would be to get the best teams in. Your example is a good one regarding the committee's past performance.
No way the Cats are considered unless the rules guiding the selections have changed which is what I am banking on.
I'd rather be 6-5 playing real teams. Is that really a school?
