Gavin Newsom announces bid for CA Governor

[TwinTownBisonFan]

still doesn't explain who the GOP candidate is that Californians are going to rally to.

the CA politicos I'm talking to about the race basically said the same thing about it being the Dems race to lose, but that they could if they take it for granted. I will concede, they dismissed Sanchez much faster than I figured they would. Basically called it DiFi's race if she got in... and said that the gop had a punchers chance otherwise... I'll take his word for it, he's been calling CA elections accurately for years.

the recession, etc... all of the issues at play in this race... tend to favor the Dems... bring in Obama stump for the candidate... done-zo...

you gotta realize T, most californians while down on the economy, don't share your view of how to fix it. moreover... they aren't "outraged" by the actions of national Dems the way you are... in fact, they like it. look at the right/wrong track numbers... they bear this out.

[travelinman67]

you gotta realize T, most californians while down on the economy, don't share your view of how to fix it.

Oh, please, CA political oracle from St. Paul, do tell; how do other "Californians" feel is the way to "fix" the economy?





Create "green jobs"?

More govt. handouts?

Govt. funded abortion?

Increased illegal immigration?

Bigger govt.?

Expanded affirmative action set asides?

More taxes?

Greater govt. control over our lives?

Legalized marijuana?

Approve same-sex marriage?

















You're so deluded, TTBF, you lost sight of reality.

Even the Dem Speaker Bass JUST THIS PAST WEEK called for increased spending to EXPAND SURFACE WATER INFRASTRUCTURE AS PART OF AN OVERALL HIGHWAY/INFRASTRUCTURE PACKAGE IN AN ATTEMPT TO RESTART CA'S ECONOMY.

We're not in the '60's anymore, TTBF. Time to put Camelot up on the shelf along with the other history books.

[Cap'n Cat]

Now, T, seems to me that the fine gentleman from the state of Minnesota is doing a good job of challenging you on this stuff. Is there any need to insult him because he dares to do so and make some sense at the same time.

Beginning to wonder if the Emperor wears any clothes.

[dbackjon]

Beginning to wonder if the Emperor wears any clothes.

At least not when he is drinking his morning coffee...

[travelinman67]

Beginning to wonder if the Emperor wears any clothes.

At least not when he is drinking his morning coffee...

That ONE LITTLE remark I made really seems to have stuck in you mind...

[dbackjon]

At least not when he is drinking his morning coffee...

That ONE LITTLE remark I made really seems to have stuck in you mind...

[TwinTownBisonFan]

dude... CA residents do not share your right-wing view of the world... you may not like it... but that's the way it is. the state went for Obama by a HUUUUUGE margin, and it wasn't because of a "lack of a real conservative"... it's because as much as you dislike or resent it, Californians are a pretty liberal lot.

I know you want to believe that my being 2,000 miles away renders 14 years of campaign experience and political knowledge moot... but it turns out that elections in the USA are pretty similar from one state to another. what motivates voters, and what effects turnout and performance and preference are pretty consistent from state-to-state.

that, combined with the fact that i'm good friends with a number of politicos and poli sci/elections experts in Cali... I think I'm pretty up on things.

[travelinman67]

Now, T, seems to me that the fine gentleman from the state of Minnesota is doing a good job of challenging you on this stuff. Is there any need to insult him because he dares to do so and make some sense at the same time.

Beginning to wonder if the Emperor wears any clothes.

Cap'n Clueless...

...I don't prognosticate about Wisconsin or Minn. politics, because my knowledge is limited to what I read online or historically from textbooks (few) and the media. I can spend my entire life reading polls about Minneetonkawaushan voter attitudes, but unless I drive down their streets and see that 20% of every "middle class" home has gone into foreclosure in the past 3 years, or that traffic is so congested, it takes 30 minutes to drive 7 miles (while watching the state spend hundreds of millions to landscape the shoulder), or that the state has raised PIT and Sales Tax to the 2nd highest rates in the nation, while providing some of the worst govt. service, while at the same time establishing maximum enforcement of fines, penalties and business fees to generate revenue...

...all of which has forced a double digit percentage of major employers to leave the state, thus creating record levels of unemployment.

Then sit in meetings, or simply hang out with friends and strangers at public functions and talk politics...listening to the same high level of discord repeated virtually verbatim from all classes of Californians, young and old, black, white, and hispanic, rich and poor, from San Diego to Yreka...

...unless you've walked in those shoes...

...you're merely chirping talking points.

[Cap'n Cat]

T,
While you're trying to rationalize your lack of insight in CA politics (though a resident), TwinTownBisonDude is slowing owning you.

[SuperHornet]

Newsom has ZERO cred outside SF. Polls show him barely treading water at about 10% with Feinstein in the race and MAYBE 17% with her out. He's nowhere near viability even for the Donkey nomination.

The GOP race is shaping up in a similar way, although from what I gather Whitman is looking pretty good.

My best guess right now is the wacky Zen Master vs. the Computer Queen.

[travelinman67]

that, combined with the fact that i'm good friends with a number of politicos and poli sci/elections experts in Cali... I think I'm pretty up on things.

The same "experts" who 4 days before the Genl. Election had Prop 8 LOSING by 5% points!!! (49% to 44%), yet on election day, it passed with 52.4% of the vote...just about the same natl "landlslide" percentage who voted for Obama (52.9%), when they conversely had Obama winning by 22% (again, off by 8 points).

Oh, yeah...those same folks show Feinstein as being the leading dem this year...

[travelinman67]

T,
While you're trying to rationalize your lack of insight in CA politics (though a resident), TwinTownBisonDude is slowing owning you.

Nice bait...

You forget I DO have political experience at both the local and state levels, having been the Campaign Manager for three city council races (two won), and a key adviser to a challenger D.A. who unseated the incumbent favorite. I've worked on three successful gubernatorial campaigns, including Schwarzneggers. I've eaten CA politics for breakfast every morning since my early twenties.

Nobody on this board even comes close to my knowledge and experience in CA politics.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

that, combined with the fact that i'm good friends with a number of politicos and poli sci/elections experts in Cali... I think I'm pretty up on things.

The same "experts" who 4 days before the Genl. Election had Prop 8 LOSING by 5% points!!! (49% to 44%), yet on election day, it passed with 52.4% of the vote...just about the same natl "landlslide" percentage who voted for Obama (52.9%), when they conversely had Obama winning by 22% (again, off by 8 points).

Oh, yeah...those same folks show Feinstein as being the leading dem this year...

no... the one's who were screaming at the No on 8 people that a vote for Obama wasn't a "no" vote... the ones who were screaming at them to send mail to the latino community advocating "non" but they didn't. but again i will ask for the name of any California Republican aside from the three named above (who at best have a punchers chance) who is going to win in California... give me any name at all... I can't think of one... and it's why I'm largely dismissive of their chances at this point.

Super - You really think Brown can win a primary against DiFi? I don't think he can raise money with her... and while his base of support is MUCH broader than Newsome (who won't even really hold SF with Brown and Feinstein in) i don't see him being able to keep with Feinsteins fundraising prowess

[Cap'n Cat]

Sh*t, PFL know more about CA politics than both of you.

[Cap'n Cat]

Just playing with you, T. You are the acknowledged CA Poli expert, no doubt.

[travelinman67]

no... the one's who were screaming at the No on 8 people that a vote for Obama wasn't a "no" vote... the ones who were screaming at them to send mail to the latino community advocating "non" but they didn't. but again i will ask for the name of any California Republican aside from the three named above (who at best have a punchers chance) who is going to win in California... give me any name at all... I can't think of one... and it's why I'm largely dismissive of their chances at this point.

Super - You really think Brown can win a primary against DiFi? I don't think he can raise money with her... and while his base of support is MUCH broader than Newsome (who won't even really hold SF with Brown and Feinstein in) i don't see him being able to keep with Feinsteins fundraising prowess

Her fundraising "prowess" is her weak link.

Californians are fed up with the old-money corruption at the Capitol. Her husband is the proverbial anchor around her neck that will be her downfall.

Hell look at what happened JUST THIS WEEK...

...and there's been SEVERAL major incidents during her career where she abused her senatorial power to feather her husband's business bed.

I had the chance once to join her for her weekly "constituent" breakfast, and took a pass.

I don't care how much power she has on the Hill...

...she's as filthy and dishonest as they come...and that will come out if she's foolish enough to toss her tiara into the ring.

[dbackjon]

DiFi has that problem, T-man, plus the fact that most liberals can't stand her - view her as approaching DINO territory.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

DiFi has that problem, T-man, plus the fact that most liberals can't stand her - view her as approaching DINO territory.

much more likely to derailer her than the curse of too much campaign money (may the lord strike me with it and may i never recover)

very rarely (though admittedly on occasion) that sort of thing can hurt a campaign... but it's usually in a nomination fight, not a primary.

the one big way I see Feinstein getting derailed, and the advice I would give her primary opponents... paint her as "insider" since some consider this a dirty word... and beat her soundly with it... run a "grassroots" campaign... (there is no such thing for political campaigns at this level... well none that win) and sweep past her to the left. I'd actually be terrified of this happening if I were CA Dems, because I think it gives the GOP their best chance to win.

I just don't see a scenario in which her ability to fundraise (esp if she can push Sanchez out of the race), get on tv, use her near universal name ID to hold forth and win a 4 or 5 way primary. I'm not saying I like it or hate it... just my interpretation of the race. Right now the nomination and election are hers to lose... which she can, especially with this much time to go...