Will FCS Weber beat FBS Wyoming on Sep 5?

[Wedgebuster]

1971 was not only before I-A (FBS) was created, it was before the NCAA went to three divisions. There were two divisions then--the University and the College divisions. Question--was the Big Sky in the University or the College division?

College.

[kemajic]

1971 was not only before I-A (FBS) was created, it was before the NCAA went to three divisions. There were two divisions then--the University and the College divisions. Question--was the Big Sky in the University or the College division?

Any word or rumors of UVU getting football or wanting/trying to join the Big Sky?

Better rumors about them joining the Great West for a rivalry with SUU. I'm starting them. The BSC has its quota of cupcakes.

[Montanan]

decided to skip the Griz / Western State game and will instead hop on down to Laramie Sept 5th. interested in seeing the new Poke's coaching staff in action. particularly interested in seeing how the the Poke's OL handles the blitz.

[Wedgebuster]

decided to skip the Griz / Western State game and will instead hop on down to Laramie Sept 5th. interested in seeing the new Poke's coaching staff in action. particularly interested in seeing how the the Poke's OL handles the blitz.

We are kicking that idea around as well. Was thinking about going to the Texas game, but maybe the opener will be more entertaining. After all, NOBODY expects Wyoming to beat Texas, and if against Weber the Pokes are going to suffer the most embarrassing moment in their football history (and there have been plenty), I just as well be there to see it.

Keep that one in mind, maybe see you at tailgate park.

[native]

Wyoming...has had one of the best defenses in the FBS for a few years now...

...Wyoming's defense will most likely keep WSU down, especially in Wyoming, first game of the season....

...Wyo's defense is going to be stronger, faster and in better condition than any of the previous seasons under Glenn....

..The Gipson Brothers at CB, are talented and skilled and should be able to cover WSU's wideouts.
The Defensive Line is starting for 3rd year together, Unrein, Fletcher and Givens. they should dominate.
The LB corps is lead by senior Johnson and stud soph Knapton. They can stop the run.
The only position of some question is at Safety, we have Prosinksi who is pretty darn good, but who is going to show up for the other spot....

Thank you for the post, PApokesfan! Excellent points! ( I edited your post to organize my responses around your themes.)

The Cowboy defense does look formidable, and they have depth! Knapton, Prosinski, Johnson, the Gipson brothers... WOW! ...11 of the Pokes' top 14 tacklers return for 2009!

I believe Wyoming will be able to stop the run if Weber cannot get the passing game going, but like many teams, Weber kinda uses the pass to set up the running game. If Higgins starts connecting on his passes, like he did against Utah and Hawaii, I expect the run game to follow for Weber.

...I also heard that WSU has had an inconsistent defense and lost many starters....

You heard right, PApokesFan! Although Mac recruited well and the Wildcats bring back a number of experienced substitutes, WSU lost eight starters on defense, including almost the entire linebacker corps!

Our only consolations seem to be that this year's defense appears faster than last year's, and our corners and safeties bring a wealth of skill, experience and speed.

...The only way i can see WSU pulling out the W, is if the Wyoming offense cannot keep the ball in their possession and turn it over. But I feel that even with a couple of turnovers by Wyo's offense, that the defense should be able to hold up.

All Wyo's offense has to do is get the ball into the hands of Stewart and Terry.

I agree with your analysis. Turnovers will be important, but field position will be even more important, especially for a traditional ball control team like Wyoming. Wyoming can win if they maintain possession of the ball, convert 3d- and 4th-downs and red zone opportunities, and keep the Wildcat offense off the field.

Punting and kicking performance will be key. Weber will have the edge in kicking. The punting game should be a draw.

But the Wyoming offense lost its leading scorer and three of the top four rushers. The passing game is lackluster. The biggest danger to Wyoming is if they fall behind and have to play catchup, like Hawaii had to do against Weber last year. UH had Tyler Graunke. I am not so sure Sween could pull it off. If Wyoming has to start passing deeper than the short and outs, that plays into the strength of Weber's secondary.

On defense, the Wyoming secondary will not be able to stop Higgins all day. Cameron's combined performance against Utah and Hawaii last year was 48 of 78 passing for 4 TDs and 2 INTs. He was sacked 5 times.

Even when the Pokes do manage to stop Higgins in the red zone, the Wildcats will be able to convert their field goals and stay in the game.

...Wyo wins 20 to 10 (wyo 3 td's, on missed EP)

Wyoming will enjoy an incredible home field advantage and the Cowboy offense should be able to score on the ground! The Pokes will largely be able to stop the Wildcat running game, but Weber will manage to burn the Cowboy secondary a few times and will prevail in the kicking game.

Weber 27 (3 TDs, 2 FGs), Wyoming 23 (3 TDs, 1 missed EP, 1 FG)

[Wildcat Ryan]

10-20-1990
Wyoming 21
Weber St. 12

09-11-1999
Wyoming 41
Weber St. 16

I bet the score looks similar to the first one, but Weber will not come out of Laramie with a win. Wyoming's offense will finally get a boost this year, and the defense has been the strong point of the team for a few seasons now. Trevyn Smith will be rendered ineffective. The linebackers are too fast and too good. The Cowboys front seven will likely have two preseason award candidates, Mitch Unrein and John Fletcher. The Cowboy rushing attack will be as good as last season. Missouri's high powered offense has come to Laramie, but it remains to be seen if the WRs will be able to hold onto the football. You guys can say "anything can happen" all you want, but fact is, history isn't on your side, and after Montana exposed Weber with it's pants down last year in Missoula, I can bet that Pete Kaligis (now the UW o-line coach) will have some perils of wisdom for the coaching staff to prepare for this game. It's funny that Weber fans think that since they made the playoffs for the first time since 1991 and beat Montana for the first time since 1998 that they can all of a sudden take down FBS teams at their beckoning. Weber will start the season 0-2 with a loss to Colorado St. as well, a bowl team from last season.

You really cant use Weber's past as reason to say they will lose, because Weber's offense is the best offense that the Wildcats have had in the school's HISTORY.

I have read alot of posts and they are all good and infomative, and the only thing I can say is Weber has just as good a chance to win as they do to lose.

Just like that Journey song "Dont stop Believin"

It will be a good game, too bad it wont be on the Mtn network.

GO WILDCATS

[MrTitleist]

Mr. Titleist - I am sure you are aware that Weber plays a game every other year at 7,000 elevation (NAU). They sure didn't suck wind there last year. Not saying Weber is going to win, but the elevation will not be a shock to Weber like it is to some of the teams that NEVER play at elevation.


And welcome, PApokesFan!

7000 feet in a dome is a little different than 7200 feet in the dry Wyoming air.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

it is fun to read these kinds of threads as a semi outsider. The Weber side says on the one hand that you can't look at Weber from a historical perspective. That may be true but then they some try to use comparative scores from common opponents from last year? Seriously funny stuff to read. The whole reason that I picked against Weber is because I watched both teams play several times last season and as Titleist pointed out the linebackers for Wyoming, in my mind will make Weber fairly one dimensional which will take some of the potency of their offense If Wyoming can not slow down the Weber offense then their shouldn't be a defense out there in FCS that could stop them.

Not bitching here I'm just saying I get a kick out of the analysis of the things that really don't matter much, historical record, comparative scores, and dry air? The difference between elevations of NAU and War Memorial is only a couple of hundred feet. The difference in the temperature and how it will affect Weber is silly also. The temp in Walkup is probably somewhere around mid 60's to mid 70's I would assume. The average Sept. temp. is 68 in Laramie. I do like the actual comparisons between Weber and Wyoming's actual teams though as well guys. Good stuff.

[native]

Mr. Titleist - I am sure you are aware that Weber plays a game every other year at 7,000 elevation (NAU). They sure didn't suck wind there last year. Not saying Weber is going to win, but the elevation will not be a shock to Weber like it is to some of the teams that NEVER play at elevation.

And welcome, PApokesFan!

7000 feet in a dome is a little different than 7200 feet in the dry Wyoming air.

Good point again, Mr. T! Stewart Stadium is only 4300 feet, a difference of nearly 3,000 feet.

Although I agree with DBJon that the altitude alone is not so critical, a compounding factor which makes the altitude more important is that the Cowboys run a traditional ball control type of offense. If Wyoming is able to maintain possession and keep the relatively inexperienced Wildcat defense running around on on the field all day, keeping Higgins and the offense off the field, fatigue could very well be a significant factor.

[native]

it is fun to read these kinds of threads as a semi outsider. The Weber side says on the one hand that you can't look at Weber from a historical perspective. That may be true but then they some try to use comparative scores from common opponents from last year? Seriously funny stuff to read. The whole reason that I picked against Weber is because I watched both teams play several times last season and as Titleist pointed out the linebackers for Wyoming, in my mind will make Weber fairly one dimensional which will take some of the potency of their offense If Wyoming can not slow down the Weber offense then their shouldn't be a defense out there in FCS that could stop them.

Not bitching here I'm just saying I get a kick out of the analysis of the things that really don't matter much, historical record, comparative scores, and dry air? The difference between elevations of NAU and War Memorial is only a couple of hundred feet. The difference in the temperature and how it will affect Weber is silly also. The temp in Walkup is probably somewhere around mid 60's to mid 70's I would assume. The average Sept. temp. is 68 in Laramie. I do like the actual comparisons between Weber and Wyoming's actual teams though as well guys. Good stuff.

On target as usual, Ursus!

Despite appearances, I am aware of the meaning of history and the differences between an average FCS defense and an average BCS defense. Believe me, that returning Wyoming defense is scary!

I also realize the limitations of comparisons against common opponents from last year, although with so many returning on the Wyoming defense and the Weber offense, I think the comparisons are more than a little instructive.

The key take-aways from the Utah comparisons for me are:
1. The Ute defense destroyed the Cowboy offense early and often
2. The Wildcat offense hung in against the same Ute defense until late in the third quarter.
3. The Wyoming defense is great, but if WSU can move the ball against an even tougher Utah defense, they do indeed have a snowball's chance to win.

Besides, what the he77 else are we going to do while waiting for football season? ...sit around, drink, and lick ourselves?!?? (That's what my ex-girlfriend from Jordan said that everyone in Montana does during the long winters.)

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

On target as usual, Ursus!

Despite appearances, I am aware of the meaning of history and the differences between an average FCS defense and an average BCS defense. Believe me, that returning Wyoming defense is scary!

I also realize the limitations of comparisons against common opponents from last year, although with so many returning on the Wyoming defense and the Weber offense, I think the comparisons are more than a little instructive.

The key take-aways from the Utah comparisons for me are:
1. The Ute defense destroyed the Cowboy offense early and often
2. The Wildcat offense hung in against the same Ute defense until late in the third quarter.
3. The Wyoming defense is great, but if WSU can move the ball against an even tougher Utah defense, they do indeed have a snowball's chance to win.

Besides, what the he77 else are we going to do while waiting for football season? ...sit around, drink, and lick ourselves?!?? (That's what my ex-girlfriend from Jordan said that everyone in Montana does during the long winters.)

I do love these discussions because they have everything. You've provided a lot of good actual analysis as well as some fluff that is funny. I know you don't believe the fluff stuff but are just putting it in for comedic value or a retort to other fluff. I also know you have a sense of history of the conference and so forth but some of the Wildcat fans say a few things that are real head scratchers. I remember watching a guy named Jamie Martin that was about as outstanding a QB as I've ever seen come in to WaGriz and play. Ton of offensive talent there at WSU now but acting like it is all something new is silly. The best all around athlete I think I ever saw us play against was Scott Shields. The guy pretty much single handedly handed my Griz their ass. Can you imagine that anyone at WSU could single handedly take apart the Griz now? There was recruiting, coaching, and magnificent offenses before McBride down in Ogden but some act as if it is all brand new.

BTW, the gal from Jordan was a woman wearing a suit of truth.

[MrTitleist]

Wyoming will not be a ball control offense this year. They were forced into that last year because they were incapable of throwing the football until Stutzreim was named the starter, but he has transferred away from UW. This new Missouri style offense will be a fast, no huddle offense. Subs will be few and far between against the Cowboys as the offense will be on the line of scrimmage as soon as the carrier is down. Plays called from the line of scrimmage. I'm still not seeing how the Wildcat offense hung with the Utah defense, they only had 7 points until the 4th quarter and a number of squandered opportunities. If anything, it shows that they were incapable of scoring until the game was in hand. Utah's defense is not that much tougher than Wyoming's defense. Utah ranked 18th in total defense, 328ypg, Wyoming ranked 22nd, 332ypg. Pretty good defense for a team that won only 5 games last season.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Wyoming will not be a ball control offense this year. They were forced into that last year because they were incapable of throwing the football until Stutzreim was named the starter, but he has transferred away from UW. This new Missouri style offense will be a fast, no huddle offense. Subs will be few and far between against the Cowboys as the offense will be on the line of scrimmage as soon as the carrier is down. Plays called from the line of scrimmage. I'm still not seeing how the Wildcat offense hung with the Utah defense, they only had 7 points until the 4th quarter and a number of squandered opportunities. If anything, it shows that they were incapable of scoring until the game was in hand. Utah's defense is not that much tougher than Wyoming's defense. Utah ranked 18th in total defense, 328ypg, Wyoming ranked 22nd, 332ypg. Pretty good defense for a team that won only 5 games last season.

Wyoming only won 4 games last season (http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/div_ia ... ?year=2005).

If the Cowboys don't have the personnel to run the new offense, it could actually be a lot worse than it was under Glenn.

Right now, I think Weber will beat Wyoming, though it's a tossup. I believe Weber is the better team on paper, but Wyoming's home field, elevation, and excitement over a new regime might be enough to get the win.

[native]

Wyoming will not be a ball control offense this year. They were forced into that last year because they were incapable of throwing the football until Stutzreim was named the starter, but he has transferred away from UW. This new Missouri style offense will be a fast, no huddle offense. Subs will be few and far between against the Cowboys as the offense will be on the line of scrimmage as soon as the carrier is down. Plays called from the line of scrimmage. I'm still not seeing how the Wildcat offense hung with the Utah defense, they only had 7 points until the 4th quarter and a number of squandered opportunities. If anything, it shows that they were incapable of scoring until the game was in hand. Utah's defense is not that much tougher than Wyoming's defense. Utah ranked 18th in total defense, 328ypg, Wyoming ranked 22nd, 332ypg. Pretty good defense for a team that won only 5 games last season.

If Weber averages 80 yards of offense per quarter for the entire game against Wyoming as they did for the first three quarters against the first team Utah defense, the Wildcats will prevail over the Cowboys!

Weber had two sustained drives into the Utah red zone in the first quarter, then fumbled in the second and third quarters.

Wyoming had ZERO sustained drives past the 50 yard line into the Ute end of the field against the first team Utah defense. ZERO.

Wow! This is GREAT news for Weber that Wyoming is no longer running a ball control offense, especially with Moore, Seldon and Stutzreim gone from the offense and Sween at quarterback!

Happy Day!

[MrTitleist]

I just grabbed the 5-7 from the NCAA site, I should have double checked that. Or at the very least, knew it off the top of my head.

Moore, Seldon, and Stutz being gone will bear no impact. Darius Terry and James Caraway are very viable RBs who will fill in without missing a beat. Stutz was a good QB, but not keen on Joe leaving. Sween will probably not be starting this fall with transfer Robert Benjamin (tailor-made for the Missouri offense) coming in from JUCO. Regardless of what you say about Weber's "sustained" drives, they still resulted in no points until the 4th quarter, so it's pointless to even bring that up. The Weber defense will not see an offense this quick moving all season long, as I don't believe any Big Sky team runs a no-huddle. But again, I still find it amazing you guys think you're the top of the world and will beat both UW and Colorado State just because you earned your first playoff birth since 1991 and beat the Griz for the first time since 1998. That's just not the case. It's rare for FCS teams to just walk in with the advantage over an FBS team, that's not going to change here. Weber will not be favored in this game, any way you shake it.

[native]

I just grabbed the 5-7 from the NCAA site, I should have double checked that. Or at the very least, knew it off the top of my head.

Moore, Seldon, and Stutz being gone will bear no impact. Darius Terry and James Caraway are very viable RBs who will fill in without missing a beat. Stutz was a good QB, but not keen on Joe leaving. Sween will probably not be starting this fall with transfer Robert Benjamin (tailor-made for the Missouri offense) coming in from JUCO. Regardless of what you say about Weber's "sustained" drives, they still resulted in no points until the 4th quarter, so it's pointless to even bring that up. The Weber defense will not see an offense this quick moving all season long, as I don't believe any Big Sky team runs a no-huddle. But again, I still find it amazing you guys think you're the top of the world and will beat both UW and Colorado State just because you earned your first playoff birth since 1991 and beat the Griz for the first time since 1998. That's just not the case. It's rare for FCS teams to just walk in with the advantage over an FBS team, that's not going to change here. Weber will not be favored in this game, any way you shake it.

OK.

Of course it's rare for and FCS team to beat an FBS team, but it is not impossible. Nobody expects a cake walk, we're only saying that Weber has a chance against Wyoming.

I understand your confidence in the Cowboy defense, but your confidence in the offense is unfathomable. Regardless of how good the new JC quarterback might be, a staid traditional offense does not transform into a fast moving spread offense in one season, let alone one summer. You must have seen more in Stewart's spring performance than is evident from his numbers last year: 78 yards... no, not 78 yards per game, 78 yards for the whole darn season.

Weber has seen "quick moving offenses" and will see them again this season. Cal Poly ran 83 plays against WSU in the playoffs. The average DI football team ran 67 offensive plays in 2008.

Weber scored and moved the ball early in the games against FBS opponents Utah and Hawaii last season. That is a simple and easily verifiable fact. I would certainly not say they are going to blow anyone out, I am just saying the Weber offense has a good chance to score against Wyoming.

The first "sustained" 58 yard drive against Utah resulted in a missed field goal. The second "sustained" 80 yard drive resulted in a touchdown. The score was 7-7 at the end of the first quarter.

We would love to beat Wyoming, but Weber can't be "on top of the world" until we beat Montana again. We do look forward to visiting the top of the world at 7,300 feet in Laramie next September.

Based on the final Sagarin ratings for 2008, Weber is favored by 8.8 points against Wyoming, and Colorado State is favored over Weber by 2.08 points. Sagarin is not gospel, of course, but the ratings provide a useful framework and were about three weeks ahead of the polls for much of last season.

Se ya at the top of the world!

[native]

Asked about an FCS program playing an FBS program, 2008 Cal Poly (now Army) head coach Rich Ellerson answered, "We know the quality of football that's being played at our level. The best teams at our level can step onto most football fields and represent themselves well...It's going to be something bigger, faster, stronger than maybe what we faced in any given game, but our guys are anxious to take it on....I don't know that we lack for confidence, but at the same time we know it's uphill."

I agree with Coach Ellerson.

reference: http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/vi ... p?t=488858

[weberwildcat]

Elevation will be the reason Weber loses?

I think if WSU loses it will be WYO's defense not the elevation.

You are saying WSU is at 4,300 ft and Wyo is at 7,000 ft. 4000 ft is high elevation, I dont htink WSU will be too affected by the elevation. I talked to some players about NAU last year, they said its not a big deal like everyone says.

Our bball players say the same thing.

And Ive been to NAU, yall, it aint Mt Everest. Now for Sac St going to NAU or Wyo maybe its a big deal??

[weberwildcat]

I would expect Wyoming's offense to put up more than 7 against Utah this year.
Also of note, Weber was down 34-7 going into the 4th quarter, so it's not like you guys really "hung" with Utah, rather, they trampled Weber for 3 quarters and called off the dogs probably somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd quarters when the game was in hand. Weber caught up with junk points in the 4th quarter when Utah's 2nd and 3rd stringers were in. What you also didn't mention in all of your fact finding was that Wyoming outgained Utah in total yards and first downs. UW turned the ball over 3 times on Sween interceptions, Utah had 0 turnovers.

Well obviously Utah won't be as good next yr, also, Idaho St will be improved on that note.

No one said we "hung" w/ Utah but if one of us did it wasn't Wyo.

Called off the dogs in the 4th against Weber??? Uh...didn't they finish 3rd in the nation? No excuse. Utah's 10th string should be able to hold an FCS to 0 yrds. Weber is an FCS team. Weber shouldn't even have scored a pt the entire game whether against the first or last string.

BTW, Wyo's stats on 1sts n yards looks good but Wyo woulda lost 40-0 if not for "garbage" points in the late 4th quarter.

I was at the USU/Utah and WSU/Utah game. Both games Utah took at the starters halfway through the 4th. I would assume the same at Wyo if not at halftime.

[weberwildcat]

Anyone knows teams can play a totally different game from one week to the next.

I think WSU could win by 14 and at the same time lose by 14. Just depends on who is ready to play.

Its really hard to say, its the first game for both schools.

[Wedgebuster]

Elevation will be the reason Weber loses? Not at all, no problem.

I think if WSU loses it will be WYO's defense not the elevation. That will be about half the reason.

You are saying WSU is at 4,300 ft and Wyo is at 7,000 ft. 4000 ft is high elevation, I dont htink WSU will be too affected by the elevation. I talked to some players about NAU last year, they said its not a big deal like everyone says. Nah, three or four thousand feet is hardly noticeable.

Our bball players say the same thing. What do your cheerleaders say?

And Ive been to NAU, yall, it aint Mt Everest. Now for Sac St going to NAU or Wyo maybe its a big deal??

Nah, no problem at all.

[kemajic]

Every one is talking about the elevation at Laramie without much mention of the wind. I do not recall having seen a calm day up there. There is a reason to favor a ground game there.

Also it should be reminded that the herein touted Weber offense produced exactly one TD in its final game last year against an FCS team in good weather. A young team that did not have the defensive horsepower that Wyoming should have.

[weberwildcat]

Every one is talking about the elevation at Laramie without much mention of the wind. I do not recall having seen a calm day up there. There is a reason to favor a ground game there.

Also it should be reminded that the herein touted Weber offense produced exactly one TD in its final game last year against an FCS team in good weather. A young team that did not have the defensive horsepower that Wyoming should have.

In the past 2 seasons there has been a trend. WSU football team plays much better in crap weather. The colder and snowier the better. In good weather they didn't play as well.

Kinda funny but it's actually true though not sure why when a good chunk of the team is from Hawai'i.

[weberwildcat]

Also, why does it seem that UM fans really like U of Wyo? I know your old coach went to Wyo but he's not there anymore. Just curious.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Also, why does it seem that UM fans really like U of Wyo? I know your old coach went to Wyo but he's not there anymore. Just curious.

That's the angle for a lot of UM fans is Joe Glenn and Wyoming games have gained a lot of popularity in Missoula bars the last few years. I also had a buddy that played for them.