2007 Playoff Predictions:
16 Slots; 8 Automatic:
Conference Winners/Automatic Bids (Prediction):
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Delaware
Gatway: UNI
MEAC: Winner of Del State/Norfolk State Game
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Wofford
Southland: McNeese State
At-Large Bids:
Big Sky:
Big Sky is usually a lock for at least 2 bids, but this year only Montana is assured of a slot. Montana State’s loss today puts them at 4 losses with 2 games to go, including Montana. I think they’ll lose that one to put them out of contention, but if they win look for strong bid consideration based on history. The winner of E. Washington and N. Arizona will get a bid, I think, but only E Washington wins out (it’s the last game of the year for NAU).
Prediction: N. Arizona at-large bid
CAA:
Before this week, I thought the conference had an outside chance at 5 bids, but UNH and UMass ended that (actually Hurricane Noel ended that; I live in the NE, winds were nasty today for those heavy passing teams). I can’t see it falling past 4 though, on the strength of their nonconference record and two wins over FBS competition (Navy game = awesome, I was there) Delaware’s not that good, but if they beat Richmond they can clinch the South. JMU has given up 8 TOs in the past two games and lost by a combined 4 pts. UNH with 3 conference losses is out of it unless they destroy (DESTROY) UMass next week; their conference schedule was really unfair this year. UMass could drop three straight; their signature game so far is a 10 pt loss to BC. Hofstra isn’t very good but could sneak in on the basis of a weak schedule. Similarly, Villanova might get in if they win out. This and Southern are both really up for grabs; I basically just picked the four teams I think are the best.
Prediction: UMass, JMU, and Richmond get at-large bids
Gateway:
I know it’s a pro-Gateway board, and fortunately for me slings and arrows can’t come through the series of tubes that make up the internet. UNI and SIU are obvious locks – hopefully they won’t revenge themselves on Delaware in the playoffs for 2003. Western Illinois and Youngstown St. both have four losses, and I don’t think they will make the cut. I hope Western Illinois does; only losses to top 5 FCS teams and Illinois? They deserve to go, but fate is cruel.
Prediction: Southern Illinois at-large bid
MEAC:
No at-large bids for this largely terrible conference. The winner of the Delaware St. – Norfolk St. game will get in to the playoffs.
Prediction: No at-large bids
Ohio Valley:
I probably know the least about OVC of the auto-bid conferences, but just from win-loss records, I don’t expect any teams to get in in what appears to be a weak conference. I’ll defer to people with more knowledge though.
Prediction: No at-large bids.
Patriot:
Fordham’s win today over Holy Cross clinches the Patriot title for them. Holy Cross has had a good year, but the Patriot league hasn’t been very good compared to previous years, with traditional powers Lehigh, Lafayette, and Colgate struggling.
Prediction: No at-large bids.
Southern:
I thought picking playoff teams out of the CAA was tough; at least there’s some separation at the top there. Southern boasts 5 teams with playoff aspirations. Citadel won’t make the cut. App State and Wofford should win out and get in (App State largely on the strength of that Michigan win and winning the title the last 2 years). Elon and Georgia Southern have non-pushover games to go, but GSU’s game v. Colorado St. probably won’t affect anything. I think Elon’s 3OT win over GSU gets them the last spot.
Prediction: App State and Elon get at-large bids.
Southland:
McNeese St. is the only team I believe will come out of this conference, but I don’t know that much about it, so I again defer to those out there who know more.
Prediction: No at-large bids.
So 15 down, 1 to go. For my last team, I’d chose from Eastern Washington, Montana St., Hofstra, New Hampshire, Villanova, Western Illinois, Holy Cross, Georgia Southern, and The Citadel. Lots of good choices there, but I have to go with Western Illinois. Gateway as a conference deserves 3 bids, and Western Illinois has only lost to the absolute best teams. They shouldn’t be penalized for scheduling NDSU and Illinois. On the other hand, I think the committee won't want to leave Big Sky with only 2 bids and for whatever reason they keep giving the Patriot league 2 bids. GSU has a tremendous case too, but I think Western Illinois's schedule will carry them. BUT, if GSU beats Colorado St, they're in.
There are a lot of good teams out there this year, but as a CAA guy, I want to say a word about my conference. We had 7 teams in the top 25 to start the week. That’s more teams than the Big South, Great West, and MAAC, and as many as in Northeast, Gateway, and Patriot. Oh, and 5 in the top 15. Although all the big conferences get short-changed, I think the CAA gets hurt the most this year. Anyway enough of that, time to sum up (with seeds, just for fun):
Playoff Bound:
Seeds
1) Northern Iowa
2) Montana
3) Southern Illinois
4) McNeese St. (I hate McNeese St.)
Other home teams in the first round (abc order)
App State
Delaware
UMass
Wofford
Final Eight:
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Elon
Fordham
JMU
Northern Arizona
Richmond
Western Illinois
Have fun. I apologize if I inadvertently slighted any teams, especially from Southland and OVC. Its hard to keep track of all the 1-AA teams (FCS is a stupid name). Anyone else have any ideas?
Oh, and Omar Cuff is getting the Walter Payton. 31 touchdowns in 9 games, tying the 1-AA record. Oh, and that record was set by Richardson (I think) of App State last year. In 16 games. 9<16. Yeah. Um. Winner.
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