Dems pick up deep red NY-26

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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by TwinTownBisonFan »

bulldog10jw wrote:
TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
The problem for the conks is that their overall turnout was 5% below RPI (Republican Performance Index) THAT is what should be worrying them.
Turnout is not likely to be a problem in 2012 with a chance to boot the Incompetant-In-Chief
Dems thought that about Bush...

problem for the GOP (as i've said in many, many threads) the GOP needs a candidate you can vote FOR... not just "i'm not him"... if that was all it took, we'd have had President Kerry.
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by AZGrizFan »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
bulldog10jw wrote:
Turnout is not likely to be a problem in 2012 with a chance to boot the Incompetant-In-Chief
Dems thought that about Bush...

problem for the GOP (as i've said in many, many threads) the GOP needs a candidate you can vote FOR... not just "i'm not him"... if that was all it took, we'd have had President Kerry.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

That's why we have President Obama. :dunce:

and yet, it turns out in many ways he WAS "him"... :rofl: :rofl: (Gtmo, Patriot Act, Iraq, Afghanistan, stimulus, big business whore, personal privacy violator, lack of press transparency....the list goes on and on).
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by bulldog10jw »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
bulldog10jw wrote:
Turnout is not likely to be a problem in 2012 with a chance to boot the Incompetant-In-Chief
Dems thought that about Bush...

problem for the GOP (as i've said in many, many threads) the GOP needs a candidate you can vote FOR... not just "i'm not him"... if that was all it took, we'd have had President Kerry.
Are you saying the Dims had a low turnout in 2004? I doubt it.
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by JohnStOnge »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:The GOP's assault on Medicare was THE issue of this campaign... this one is on Paul Ryan.
I guess it shows why this country is really in trouble. If anybody makes anything approaching a serious effort to back down on unsustainable entitlement programs they run afoul of the entitlement mentality that's become so entrenched and they pay at the polls. The People of the United States have made their own bed. The only shame with respect to Medicare is that the disgusting parasites who are driving the situation will probably mostly be long gone by the time everything crashes. They'll have gotten theirs.
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by CID1990 »

Medicare might well be the switch that Dems will whip Republicans with in 2012. That is unfortunate, because it is pure political grandstanding. Bill Clinton was also outspoken about Medicare, and numerous other Democrats have been over the past few years.

If political offices are lost over this issue, then we truly are in trouble. I personally find the hyperbolic claims that old people are going to be thrown out of rest homes disgusting. This is the old "starving school children" argument in redux.

There are ways to trim the program, but there are no fixes that are going to be painless.
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by BDKJMU »

CID1990 wrote:Medicare might well be the switch that Dems will whip Republicans with in 2012. That is unfortunate, because it is pure political grandstanding. Bill Clinton was also outspoken about Medicare, and numerous other Democrats have been over the past few years.

If political offices are lost over this issue, then we truly are in trouble. I personally find the hyperbolic claims that old people are going to be thrown out of rest homes disgusting. This is the old "starving school children" argument in redux.

There are ways to trim the program, but there are no fixes that are going to be painless.
Like this donk ad: :ohno:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by 93henfan »

BDKJMU wrote:Like this donk ad: :ohno:
[youtube][/youtube]
C'mon, that's hilarious. :lol:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by kalm »

Grizalltheway wrote:
bulldog10jw wrote:
Sure it is. I guess we can count on him losing his own district then.

This was won by Dims doing what they do best. Scaring senior citizens. Good job. :thumb:
:rofl:

Yeah, as opposed to conks scaring mindless fucks into believing Dems will take away their guns and let gays annul their marriages. :rofl:
That's kinky.
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by houndawg »

JohnStOnge wrote:
TwinTownBisonFan wrote:The GOP's assault on Medicare was THE issue of this campaign... this one is on Paul Ryan.
I guess it shows why this country is really in trouble. If anybody makes anything approaching a serious effort to back down on unsustainable entitlement programs they run afoul of the entitlement mentality that's become so entrenched and they pay at the polls. The People of the United States have made their own bed. The only shame with respect to Medicare is that the disgusting parasites who are driving the situation will probably mostly be long gone by the time everything crashes. They'll have gotten theirs.
The entitlement mentality folks already keep their money off-shore. :coffee:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by houndawg »

CID1990 wrote:Medicare might well be the switch that Dems will whip Republicans with in 2012. That is unfortunate, because it is pure political grandstanding. Bill Clinton was also outspoken about Medicare, and numerous other Democrats have been over the past few years.

If political offices are lost over this issue, then we truly are in trouble. I personally find the hyperbolic claims that old people are going to be thrown out of rest homes disgusting. This is the old "starving school children" argument in redux.

There are ways to trim the program, but there are no fixes that are going to be painless.
Stop with the hand-wringing and whimpering already. :roll:

It's just the Democrat version of "you hate America if you oppose this war". :coffee:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by bulldog10jw »

houndawg wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I guess it shows why this country is really in trouble. If anybody makes anything approaching a serious effort to back down on unsustainable entitlement programs they run afoul of the entitlement mentality that's become so entrenched and they pay at the polls. The People of the United States have made their own bed. The only shame with respect to Medicare is that the disgusting parasites who are driving the situation will probably mostly be long gone by the time everything crashes. They'll have gotten theirs.
The entitlement mentality folks already keep their money off-shore. :coffee:
No, they don't. :coffee:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote:
TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
Dems thought that about Bush...

problem for the GOP (as i've said in many, many threads) the GOP needs a candidate you can vote FOR... not just "i'm not him"... if that was all it took, we'd have had President Kerry.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

That's why we have President Obama. :dunce:



Because Obama could say "I'm not McCain"? :?

I seem to recall that you were singing a different tune; not to mention waxing poetic about the masterstroke of his choice of running mate. :coffee:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by D1B »

houndawg wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

That's why we have President Obama. :dunce:



Because Obama could say "I'm not McCain"? :?

I seem to recall that you were singing a different tune; not to mention waxing poetic about the masterstroke of his choice of running mate. :coffee:

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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by kalm »

bulldog10jw wrote:
houndawg wrote:
The entitlement mentality folks already keep their money off-shore. :coffee:
No, they don't. :coffee:
The producers are entitled to keep every last penny they earn.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/euro ... erland-ubs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; :coffee:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by bulldog10jw »

kalm wrote:
bulldog10jw wrote:
No, they don't. :coffee:
The producers are entitled to keep every last penny they earn.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/euro ... erland-ubs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; :coffee:
Like you said "The producers"

Not the "entitlement mentality" folks :coffee:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by YoUDeeMan »

BDKJMU wrote:Like this donk ad: :ohno:
[youtube][/youtube]
That looks as though it is filmed at the Palisades Interstate Park. If you don't like heights, avoid stopping at the scenic view stops...especially the park itself...on a windy day. Those cliffs go straight down. :o

On the other hand, those cliffs provide a fantastic view...especially on a clear day. :thumb:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by AZGrizFan »

houndawg wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

That's why we have President Obama. :dunce:



Because Obama could say "I'm not McCain"? :?
Because Obama could say "I'm not Bush". Remember? McSame, McLame, McBush, etc., etc.,....Are you PLAYING stupid, or does it just come naturally to you?
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote:
houndawg wrote:



Because Obama could say "I'm not McCain"? :?
Because Obama could say "I'm not Bush". Remember? McSame, McLame, McBush, etc., etc.,....Are you PLAYING stupid, or does it just come naturally to you?

McCain could say "I'm not Bush", too. :coffee:




And his VP pick was political genius of the highest order.











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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by TwinTownBisonFan »

AZGrizFan wrote:
houndawg wrote:



Because Obama could say "I'm not McCain"? :?
Because Obama could say "I'm not Bush". Remember? McSame, McLame, McBush, etc., etc.,....Are you PLAYING stupid, or does it just come naturally to you?
and there goes the point - whizzing gently over Z's head... I'm sure it was inadvertent.

Obama, going back to the PRIMARIES was a candidate people were voting FOR. They weren't voting against someone like Howard Dean like they did in '04 by voting for Kerry (and again later against Bush).

Moreover, my entire point is that this point only really applies when you have a challenger going up against an incumbent... beating an incumbent is always just as much about making voters want to vote FOR you as it is wanting to vote AGAINST the incumbent.
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by AZGrizFan »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Because Obama could say "I'm not Bush". Remember? McSame, McLame, McBush, etc., etc.,....Are you PLAYING stupid, or does it just come naturally to you?
and there goes the point - whizzing gently over Z's head... I'm sure it was inadvertent.

Obama, going back to the PRIMARIES was a candidate people were voting FOR. They weren't voting against someone like Howard Dean like they did in '04 by voting for Kerry (and again later against Bush).

Moreover, my entire point is that this point only really applies when you have a challenger going up against an incumbent... beating an incumbent is always just as much about making voters want to vote FOR you as it is wanting to vote AGAINST the incumbent.
REally? That was your point? And yet YOU were the one talking about President Kerry....you sure you know what your point even IS? In EVERY primary they're voting FOR someone. Until they're left with two crappy choices at the end and whoever does the better job of "I'm not _________" wins.
Last edited by AZGrizFan on Thu May 26, 2011 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by AZGrizFan »

houndawg wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Because Obama could say "I'm not Bush". Remember? McSame, McLame, McBush, etc., etc.,....Are you PLAYING stupid, or does it just come naturally to you?

McCain could say "I'm not Bush", too. :coffee:




And his VP pick was political genius of the highest order.











:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :lmao: :lmao: :rofl: :rofl: :bananahump:
OK, Douche1Bag Jr. Go back to sucking your brothers cock. :thumb:

At the VERY least, think up some original material instead of just duplicating Douche1Bag's routine.
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by TwinTownBisonFan »

AZGrizFan wrote:
TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
and there goes the point - whizzing gently over Z's head... I'm sure it was inadvertent.

Obama, going back to the PRIMARIES was a candidate people were voting FOR. They weren't voting against someone like Howard Dean like they did in '04 by voting for Kerry (and again later against Bush).

Moreover, my entire point is that this point only really applies when you have a challenger going up against an incumbent... beating an incumbent is always just as much about making voters want to vote FOR you as it is wanting to vote AGAINST the incumbent.
In EVERY primary they're voting FOR someone. Until they're left with two crappy choices at the end and whoever does the better job of "I'm not _________" wins.
And you're wrong.

If your theory held any water - Kerry would have been elected in a walk. The problem is (and this will be the problem for ANY candidate left in the GOP field) that "I'm not _____" is not enough to beat an incumbent... not even Bush. Kerry's problem was that he NEVER excited the Dems to vote FOR him... all the energy was against Bush... which is why ultimately, it failed... the same thing is shaping up for the GOP... their base is so angry about Obama that they figure they'll vote to two dogs fucking in the bed of a pickup because it isn't Obama and that'll be enough... to the average voter... it won't be... just like it wasn't with Kerry (who was as close to two dogs fucking in the bed of a pickup as you can get)
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by 89Hen »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:The problem is (and this will be the problem for ANY candidate left in the GOP field) that "I'm not _____" is not enough to beat an incumbent... not even Bush.
Are you talking only Presidential race? Because I can assure you it happened in the Maryland Governor's race. :nod:
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by AZGrizFan »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
In EVERY primary they're voting FOR someone. Until they're left with two crappy choices at the end and whoever does the better job of "I'm not _________" wins.
And you're wrong.

If your theory held any water - Kerry would have been elected in a walk. The problem is (and this will be the problem for ANY candidate left in the GOP field) that "I'm not _____" is not enough to beat an incumbent... not even Bush. Kerry's problem was that he NEVER excited the Dems to vote FOR him... all the energy was against Bush... which is why ultimately, it failed... the same thing is shaping up for the GOP... their base is so angry about Obama that they figure they'll vote to two dogs fucking in the bed of a pickup because it isn't Obama and that'll be enough... to the average voter... it won't be... just like it wasn't with Kerry (who was as close to two dogs fucking in the bed of a pickup as you can get)
Well, that's an interesting theory. How come 98% of the campaign advertising goes directly against your theory then?

Edit: And if "defeating an incumbent" is so goddamned difficult, how come it's happened in 2 of the past 5 presidential elections where there was an incumbent running?
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Re: Dems pick up deep red NY-26

Post by TwinTownBisonFan »

AZGrizFan wrote:
TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
And you're wrong.

If your theory held any water - Kerry would have been elected in a walk. The problem is (and this will be the problem for ANY candidate left in the GOP field) that "I'm not _____" is not enough to beat an incumbent... not even Bush. Kerry's problem was that he NEVER excited the Dems to vote FOR him... all the energy was against Bush... which is why ultimately, it failed... the same thing is shaping up for the GOP... their base is so angry about Obama that they figure they'll vote to two dogs fucking in the bed of a pickup because it isn't Obama and that'll be enough... to the average voter... it won't be... just like it wasn't with Kerry (who was as close to two dogs fucking in the bed of a pickup as you can get)
Well, that's an interesting theory. How come 98% of the campaign advertising goes directly against your theory then?

Edit: And if "defeating an incumbent" is so goddamned difficult, how come it's happened in 2 of the past 5 presidential elections where there was an incumbent running?
1. defeating an incumbent is hard as shit... look at Congress. in 2010, a "wave" year 70 some seats out of 435 changed hands.
2. in the case of the Presidency let's take a look at the last 100 years:
1912: Incumbent TR loses (however he is running as an independent having originally declined to run... splitting the GOP between he and Taft - an outlier if there ever was one)
1916: Woodrow Wilson Re-elected over C.E. Hughes
1920: Harding wins an open-seat election
1924: Coolidge (having succeeded Harding) crushes Davis
1928: Hoover wins an open-seat election in a massive landslide
1932: FDR trounces Hoover - promising massive reforms (if ever there was a challenger people were voting FOR this is it)
1936-1944: FDR rolls over a succession of "I'm not FDR" challengers
1948: Truman (have succeeded FDR) holds of "I'm not Truman" candidate Tom Dewey
1952: Ike beats Stevenson in open seat
1956: Ike does it again - Stevenson falls clearly in to "I'm not Ike" category
1960: JFK wins open seat
1964: Johnson CRUSHES Goldwater - debate can be had about whether he's an "I'm not LBJ" candidate
1968: Nixon wins open seat
1972: Nixon buries McGovern an "I'm not Nixon" guy
1976: Carter beats Ford - this is the ONLY election I can think of in the past 100 years where, by simple virtue of being "not Ford" is that enough (and it took the pardoning of Nixon to do it)
1980: Reagan wallops Carter - I'm no fan of Reagan - but he clearly did not run on "I'm not Carter"
1984: Reagan routs Mondale - the consummate "I'm not him" guy.
1988: Bush wins open seat
1992: Clinton beats Bush - Clinton surprises many by emerging as a candidate people want to vote FOR.
1996: Clinton downs Dole - clearly running as "I'm not Clinton"
2000: Bush edges Gore in an open seat
2004: Bush beats Kerry - clearly running as "I'm not Bush"
2008: Obama beats McCain in an open seat

A tally:
25 elections
8 are open seat races - leaving 17 with an incumbent facing a challenger of these:
12 are won by incumbents
5 are won by challengers of these:
4 are won by candidates with strong appeal candidates voters are voting "for"
1 is won by somebody who just showed up and wasn't Gerald Ford (who was subsequently THRASHED in the next election by a challenger voters were voting "for")

5 challengers have won in 25 elections - that's 20% (while better than Congress - it's not terribly impressive)
1 of those fits the "i'm not so and so" criteria - that's 5%...
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