CAA Flagship wrote:Another strong jobs number released this morning. #TrumpTrain
I think it'll be strong as it's been many times over the past 10 years once it is adjusted but I wonder why they even release these initial estimates at the end of the month. Like for instance at the same time they released the January initial estimate they indicated that they were correcting the initial December estimate downward by 90,000 from 312,000 to 222,000. That's by 29%. That's a big difference.
Seriously, when there is that much error potentially associated with the initial estimate why do they even release it? Just wait a month and provide the final estimate to start with.
CAA Flagship wrote:Another strong jobs number released this morning. #TrumpTrain
We are in the midst of a once in a decade opportunity for people to make lateral and upward moves in their careers. The grass isn't always greener but the opportunity is there to get out of undesired situations.
Trip already made a move recently.
ASUG8, it's now or never.
clenzy, not sure what your current situation is. Still educating yourself?
SDH and Ibanez, I think your most recent moves have been satisfying. Probably no need to make a move?
Not sure about the rest of you. What say you?
CAA Flagship wrote:Another strong jobs number released this morning. #TrumpTrain
We are in the midst of a once in a decade opportunity for people to make lateral and upward moves in their careers. The grass isn't always greener but the opportunity is there to get out of undesired situations.
Trip already made a move recently.
ASUG8, it's now or never.
clenzy, not sure what your current situation is. Still educating yourself?
SDH and Ibanez, I think your most recent moves have been satisfying. Probably no need to make a move?
Not sure about the rest of you. What say you?
JohnStOnge wrote:
I think it'll be strong as it's been many times over the past 10 years once it is adjusted but I wonder why they even release these initial estimates at the end of the month. Like for instance at the same time they released the January initial estimate they indicated that they were correcting the initial December estimate downward by 90,000 from 312,000 to 222,000. That's by 29%. That's a big difference.
Seriously, when there is that much error potentially associated with the initial estimate why do they even release it? Just wait a month and provide the final estimate to start with.
If Trump cured cancer, you would hate it. TDS
I have no problem with job creation. What I try to get across to people like you is that there has been no change with Trump. Below is a graph of job creation over time. As you can see, something like 222,000 jobs created in a month is not out of line with what's been happening over the years. There is no way anyone would look at that graph without knowing anything about who was President when and think something happened near the end of 2016 to make things suddenly get better. The point is that the idea that there is some association between Trump becoming President and a change in job creation statistics is absolute nonsense. There's no indication at all in the data to suggest Trump "caused" an increase in job creation.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came
css75 wrote:
If Trump cured cancer, you would hate it. TDS
I have no problem with job creation. What I try to get across to people like you is that there has been no change with Trump. Below is a graph of job creation over time. As you can see, something like 222,000 jobs created in a month is not out of line with what's been happening over the years. There is no way anyone would look at that graph without knowing anything about who was President when and think something happened near the end of 2016 to make things suddenly get better. The point is that the idea that there is some association between Trump becoming President and a change in job creation statistics is absolute nonsense. There's no indication at all in the data to suggest Trump "caused" an increase in job creation.
I dont’ know the answer to this and I’m too lazy to look....could it be the KIND of jobs that are being created? He’s “trumping” that more manufacturing jobs are coming back...instead of the service sector & retail jobs created under Obama?
"Ah fuck. You are right." KYJelly, 11/6/12
"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam." Barack Obama, 9/25/12
css75 wrote:
If Trump cured cancer, you would hate it. TDS
I have no problem with job creation. What I try to get across to people like you is that there has been no change with Trump. Below is a graph of job creation over time. As you can see, something like 222,000 jobs created in a month is not out of line with what's been happening over the years. There is no way anyone would look at that graph without knowing anything about who was President when and think something happened near the end of 2016 to make things suddenly get better. The point is that the idea that there is some association between Trump becoming President and a change in job creation statistics is absolute nonsense. There's no indication at all in the data to suggest Trump "caused" an increase in job creation.
A lot of Obama’s job creation was in government jobs, Tru p more private sector.
CAA Flagship wrote:Another strong jobs number released this morning. #TrumpTrain
We are in the midst of a once in a decade opportunity for people to make lateral and upward moves in their careers. The grass isn't always greener but the opportunity is there to get out of undesired situations.
Trip already made a move recently.
ASUG8, it's now or never.
clenzy, not sure what your current situation is. Still educating yourself?
SDH and Ibanez, I think your most recent moves have been satisfying. Probably no need to make a move?
Not sure about the rest of you. What say you?
Just make sure the illegals are paying into Social Security.
You matter. Unless you multiply yourself by c squared. Then you energy.
"I really love America. I just don't know how to get there anymore."John Prine
JohnStOnge wrote:
I think it'll be strong as it's been many times over the past 10 years once it is adjusted but I wonder why they even release these initial estimates at the end of the month. Like for instance at the same time they released the January initial estimate they indicated that they were correcting the initial December estimate downward by 90,000 from 312,000 to 222,000. That's by 29%. That's a big difference.
Seriously, when there is that much error potentially associated with the initial estimate why do they even release it? Just wait a month and provide the final estimate to start with.
If Trump cured cancer, you would hate it. TDS
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Traitor Defense Syndrome. A textbook case...
You matter. Unless you multiply yourself by c squared. Then you energy.
"I really love America. I just don't know how to get there anymore."John Prine
Winterborn wrote:
I made one a couple of years ago and am positioned nicely (I hope ) for another jump here probably next year. Will have to see how things shake out, otherwise I have other opportunies outside of the current company I work for.
That said, I fully agree with what you stated above. Promotions/opportunities will not be just given to you, you have to want it and no time like the present in this workers market.
You really have to be the squeaky wheel. I learned that too late.
And write reports. Write reports with proper grammar, an executive summary, graphs that go up to the right, and you're golden.
You matter. Unless you multiply yourself by c squared. Then you energy.
"I really love America. I just don't know how to get there anymore."John Prine
Coming up on March 2nd. We'll find out then how well Trump's tariff war with China is going. Personally, I think he is going to do great. I especially like his meeting with Xi right before he meets with NoKo's Kim.
css75 wrote:
If Trump cured cancer, you would hate it. TDS
I have no problem with job creation. What I try to get across to people like you is that there has been no change with Trump. Below is a graph of job creation over time. As you can see, something like 222,000 jobs created in a month is not out of line with what's been happening over the years. There is no way anyone would look at that graph without knowing anything about who was President when and think something happened near the end of 2016 to make things suddenly get better. The point is that the idea that there is some association between Trump becoming President and a change in job creation statistics is absolute nonsense. There's no indication at all in the data to suggest Trump "caused" an increase in job creation.
Sooooooo.... is it NATO, the John Bolton neocon cabal, or Putin's proxies in the white house that are pushing for withdrawal from the INF agreement? The media can't seem to agree on what it is we should be terrified of on this one.
SeattleGriz wrote:Coming up on March 2nd. We'll find out then how well Trump's tariff war with China is going. Personally, I think he is going to do great. I especially like his meeting with Xi right before he meets with NoKo's Kim.
It should be a walkover - nothing trumps food as the ultimate weapon except fresh water and atmosphere. Of course we're talking about a so-called leader who went bust running a casino....
You matter. Unless you multiply yourself by c squared. Then you energy.
"I really love America. I just don't know how to get there anymore."John Prine
Sooooooo.... is it NATO, the John Bolton neocon cabal, or Putin's proxies in the white house that are pushing for withdrawal from the INF agreement? The media can't seem to agree on what it is we should be terrified of on this one.
Door #3, Alex.
You matter. Unless you multiply yourself by c squared. Then you energy.
"I really love America. I just don't know how to get there anymore."John Prine
JohnStOnge wrote:
I have no problem with job creation. What I try to get across to people like you is that there has been no change with Trump. Below is a graph of job creation over time. As you can see, something like 222,000 jobs created in a month is not out of line with what's been happening over the years. There is no way anyone would look at that graph without knowing anything about who was President when and think something happened near the end of 2016 to make things suddenly get better. The point is that the idea that there is some association between Trump becoming President and a change in job creation statistics is absolute nonsense. There's no indication at all in the data to suggest Trump "caused" an increase in job creation.
I dont’ know the answer to this and I’m too lazy to look....could it be the KIND of jobs that are being created? He’s “trumping” that more manufacturing jobs are coming back...instead of the service sector & retail jobs created under Obama?
You can't believe anything Trump says. The bottom line is that there has been no big change in the economy. It's pretty much continued on the trajectory it was on. The one thing I can see at this point is that maybe there has been a decline in variation in quarterly real GDP. But on the other hand there are those who say GDP was temporarily impacted by a "sugar high" borne of the tax cuts that are expected to make things worse in the long run.
At this point it's clear that if somebody in the future is looking at economic statistics over time with no desire to either pump up or tamp down the "effect" of any particular President they are not going to identify this period as characterized by any remarkable change in things. What they're going to see is that there was a big disturbance back around 2008 then things started recovering around 2009 and continued through this time. They are not going to see any remarkable change in the way things are going that would make them start looking for possible explanations.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came
AZGrizFan wrote:
I dont’ know the answer to this and I’m too lazy to look....could it be the KIND of jobs that are being created? He’s “trumping” that more manufacturing jobs are coming back...instead of the service sector & retail jobs created under Obama?
You can't believe anything Trump says. The bottom line is that there has been no big change in the economy. It's pretty much continued on the trajectory it was on. The one thing I can see at this point is that maybe there has been a decline in variation in quarterly real GDP. But on the other hand there are those who say GDP was temporarily impacted by a "sugar high" borne of the tax cuts that are expected to make things worse in the long run.
At this point it's clear that if somebody in the future is looking at economic statistics over time with no desire to either pump up or tamp down the "effect" of any particular President they are not going to identify this period as characterized by any remarkable change in things. What they're going to see is that there was a big disturbance back around 2008 then things started recovering around 2009 and continued through this time. They are not going to see any remarkable change in the way things are going that would make them start looking for possible explanations.
Yep. And at some point they’re going to use a better metric than GDP.
kalm wrote:
Yep. And at some point they’re going to use a better metric than GDP.
I'm fine with using real GDP along with other metrics. But I think there is a thing going on where those of the Republican side act like the economy was bad before Trump took office and now it's good. When I'm driving around I listen to Rush Limbaugh some and frequently hear him refer to the "Trump recovery."
There is no "Trump recovery." The current economic recovery began during Summer, 2009. What we've got is Trump persistently claiming something REALLY different is going on when it's not. It's like the thing where he told contractors to move dirt around so he could convince potential investors in a casino project that something was going on when it wasn't.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came
SeattleGriz wrote:Coming up on March 2nd. We'll find out then how well Trump's tariff war with China is going. Personally, I think he is going to do great. I especially like his meeting with Xi right before he meets with NoKo's Kim.
It should be a walkover - nothing trumps food as the ultimate weapon except fresh water and atmosphere. Of course we're talking about a so-called leader who went bust running a casino....
I don't remember you puffing out your chest over your fellow Muslim, Obama... and his acquiescing
AZGrizFan wrote:
I dont’ know the answer to this and I’m too lazy to look....could it be the KIND of jobs that are being created? He’s “trumping” that more manufacturing jobs are coming back...instead of the service sector & retail jobs created under Obama?
You can't believe anything Trump says. The bottom line is that there has been no big change in the economy. It's pretty much continued on the trajectory it was on. The one thing I can see at this point is that maybe there has been a decline in variation in quarterly real GDP. But on the other hand there are those who say GDP was temporarily impacted by a "sugar high" borne of the tax cuts that are expected to make things worse in the long run.
At this point it's clear that if somebody in the future is looking at economic statistics over time with no desire to either pump up or tamp down the "effect" of any particular President they are not going to identify this period as characterized by any remarkable change in things. What they're going to see is that there was a big disturbance back around 2008 then things started recovering around 2009 and continued through this time. They are not going to see any remarkable change in the way things are going that would make them start looking for possible explanations.
There are five distinct differences between “Obama’s Recovery” and “Trump’s Recovery” that you refuse to acknowledge but certainly have made the going much more difficult for Trump. QE1, QE2, QE3 during late Bush and Obama presidencies coupled with a flat Fed rate for 8 consecutive years, up against 9 Fed rate increases during Trump’s presidency and the Fed unwinding the $4.3 trillion balance sheet accumulated during the QE’s. In the face of THAT, it’s an absolute fucking miracle Trump has been able to continue this economic expansion as long as he has. But you keep toeing that donk party line, John. You’ve definitely drunk the koolaid.
I mean, if you’re going to “look at the data”, then fucking look at ALL the data. Look beneath the surface...just a tad. You'll be amazed what you find.
Last edited by AZGrizFan on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
"Ah fuck. You are right." KYJelly, 11/6/12
"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam." Barack Obama, 9/25/12
Sooooooo.... is it NATO, the John Bolton neocon cabal, or Putin's proxies in the white house that are pushing for withdrawal from the INF agreement? The media can't seem to agree on what it is we should be terrified of on this one.
Door #3, Alex.
Why?
How does this benefit Russia?
(hint: it doesn’t)
Neither does supporting the interim Venezuelan President but that’s another thread
as is pretty much everything the Trump admin has done concerning Russia
but yeah Trump won’t turn over his notes from his meeting with Putin so there’s the smoking gun
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
"You however, are an insufferable ankle biting mental chihuahua..." - Clizzoris
Neither does supporting the interim Venezuelan President but that’s another thread
as is pretty much everything the Trump admin has done concerning Russia
but yeah Trump won’t turn over his notes from his meeting with Putin so there’s the smoking gun
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I agree - if Trump is a Russian proxy, how come he keeps doing all these things that go contrary to Russia's best interests? Is he a Russian proxy, but just really bad at it that he ends up doing the opposite that Russia wants just out of sheer incompetence?
CAA Flagship wrote:Another strong jobs number released this morning. #TrumpTrain
We are in the midst of a once in a decade opportunity for people to make lateral and upward moves in their careers. The grass isn't always greener but the opportunity is there to get out of undesired situations.
Trip already made a move recently.
ASUG8, it's now or never.
clenzy, not sure what your current situation is. Still educating yourself?
SDH and Ibanez, I think your most recent moves have been satisfying. Probably no need to make a move?
Not sure about the rest of you. What say you?
I interview for a lateral position next week...but yeah I'm pretty fat and happy where I'm at.
) for another jump here probably next year. Will have to see how things shake out, otherwise I have other opportunies outside of the current company I work for. 
