Coronavirus COVID-19

[AZGrizFan]

Let the high risk groups continue to isolate. The other 95% of the country needs to get the fuck back to work.

Yes they do. But how much of that 95% is due to mitigation practices?

95% of the country is not at high risk for dying from the virus.

[AZGrizFan]

Well this is America, and obesity is considered high risk, so I don't know about anything remotely close to 95%
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar ... 15/5818333

Again, you let this thing run rampant, and most people are gonna deal with the shittiest cold of their lives for two weeks, and then maybe some breathing issues for another month. But for a chunk of the people you know, some of whom are under 50 and otherwise healthy, it's gonna be ventilation, intubation, possibly permanent lung or heart issues, and/or death. And when that overwhelms the ICU it's gonna be 5x as many deaths as it would have been.

Not mention if you have emergency medical needs not related to the virus.

Math is hard.

those people aren’t going to the hospital NOW. That’s why hospitals sit empty, doctors and nurses are being furloughed, etc., etc.

[Baldy]

Media Matters:



Also Media Matters:

[CID1990]

Can we at least agree that MediaMatters is no more a legitimate source than FOX, CNN or MSNBC?

[kalm]

Not mention if you have emergency medical needs not related to the virus.

Math is hard.

those people aren’t going to the hospital NOW. That’s why hospitals sit empty, doctors and nurses are being furloughed, etc., etc.

You do understand that whatever the actual numbers end up being, they will be skewed downward because of mitigation/containment strategies?

And containment doesn’t mean cure. Cure comes with a vaccine which normally takes years...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... han-a-year

That doesn’t mean restrictions can’t be relaxed sooner. They most certainly will. But it also means the world will continue to have outbreaks and community spread (hopefully all quickly contained) until a vaccine is nailed down.

[kalm]

Media Matters:



Also Media Matters:

Their minions aren’t helping.....


https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/ ... r-suggest/

[CAA Flagship]

You do understand that whatever the actual numbers end up being, they will be skewed downward because of mitigation/containment strategies?

And containment doesn’t mean cure. Cure comes with a vaccine which normally takes years...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... han-a-year

That doesn’t mean restrictions can’t be relaxed sooner. They most certainly will. But it also means the world will continue to have outbreaks and community spread (hopefully all quickly contained) until a vaccine is nailed down.

Yup.
The teeth grinding over Trump's desire to "open up the economy" is ridiculous. There is a reckless way of doing it, and there is a low risk way of doing it. He is not going to do the "cannonball in the pool" approach.

The rapid test that will roll out next week will be the biggest aid. He will have the national health experts offer guidance to governors on descriptions of low risk businesses, safe practices (such as employee/customer space per square foot), and cities/communities where it can be recommended first. People are certainly more educated at this point. You can see the changes in behavior patterns in grocery stores day by day.

Will there be an overshoot (second wave bigger than desired)? In some places, yes. Just have to deal with that as they pop up. I don't see a solution to bars/restaurants, stadiums, theaters, events, etc. though. Heard one suggestion that baseball return to play with no fans and only the starting lineup allowed in the dugout. Remaining players sit in the stands close by the dugouts. The concern being any amount of heavy breathing can cause a higher risk of spread so spacing is important. Clubhouse practices would be altered such as no showers, no buffets, etc.

Our lives are upside down until a vaccine is developed. And the likelihood of one in the next 12-18 months is a long shot. It's an extremely difficult process. No vaccine was ever developed for SARS or MERS. But we can't stay imobilized for much longer. This is going to come down to risk-taking. It will be trial and error. And there will be errors.

[kalm]

You do understand that whatever the actual numbers end up being, they will be skewed downward because of mitigation/containment strategies?

And containment doesn’t mean cure. Cure comes with a vaccine which normally takes years...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... han-a-year

That doesn’t mean restrictions can’t be relaxed sooner. They most certainly will. But it also means the world will continue to have outbreaks and community spread (hopefully all quickly contained) until a vaccine is nailed down.

Yup.
The teeth grinding over Trump's desire to "open up the economy" is ridiculous. There is a reckless way of doing it, and there is a low risk way of doing it. He is not going to do the "cannonball in the pool" approach.

The rapid test that will roll out next week will be the biggest aid. He will have the national health experts offer guidance to governors on descriptions of low risk businesses, safe practices (such as employee/customer space per square foot), and cities/communities where it can be recommended first. People are certainly more educated at this point. You can see the changes in behavior patterns in grocery stores day by day.

Will there be an overshoot (second wave bigger than desired)? In some places, yes. Just have to deal with that as they pop up. I don't see a solution to bars/restaurants, stadiums, theaters, events, etc. though. Heard one suggestion that baseball return to play with no fans and only the starting lineup allowed in the dugout. Remaining players sit in the stands close by the dugouts. The concern being any amount of heavy breathing can cause a higher risk of spread so spacing is important. Clubhouse practices would be altered such as no showers, no buffets, etc.

Our lives are upside down until a vaccine is developed. And the likelihood of one in the next 12-18 months is a long shot. It's an extremely difficult process. No vaccine was ever developed for SARS or MERS. But we can't stay imobilized for much longer. This is going to come down to risk-taking. It will be trial and error. And there will be errors.

Hey Flaggy...good post.

[Gil Dobie]

those people aren’t going to the hospital NOW. That’s why hospitals sit empty, doctors and nurses are being furloughed, etc., etc.

You do understand that whatever the actual numbers end up being, they will be skewed downward because of mitigation/containment strategies?

And containment doesn’t mean cure. Cure comes with a vaccine which normally takes years...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... han-a-year

That doesn’t mean restrictions can’t be relaxed sooner. They most certainly will. But it also means the world will continue to have outbreaks and community spread (hopefully all quickly contained) until a vaccine is nailed down.

True, and more than 5% will be people over 60 with a high percentage will need hospitalization. This will over burden the hospitals if left unmitigated. Plus the death rate, not hospitalization for those under 50, is still .2%, filling more hospital beds.

Maybe the banks could do something to help people with money problems, like no payments during this pandemic for corona unemployed. And add the extra time on the end of the loans and mortgages after mitigation is over.

[JohnStOnge]

Ok. I posted a while back in this thread that I thought the Administration was using inflated death estimates during a press conference in order to be able to later come back and claim that they did a good job. Now the news is full of the story that 100,000 to 200,000 deaths were predicted but a new estimate is about 61,000.

Here is the problem: There was never any reference to where that 100,000 to 200,000 range came from. The model that they're referring to as now predicting about 61,000 is the University of Washington model. As I type it is providing a point estimate of 61,545 deaths.

Problem is, THAT model wasn't predicting 100,000 to 200,000 deaths when those numbers were put out during a Trump press briefing. It was predicting a point estimate of 81,114.

Also, if you really want to interpret what is was projecting properly it was projecting a range of from 38,242 through 162,106 deaths. Now it is predicting from 26,487 through 155,315. That is not a huge change.

The most concerning part to me is that I saw Fauci interviewed by Brian Williams today and he acted as though the 100,000 through 200,000 range referenced in the press conference came from the same model that is now predicting a point estimate of about 61,000. That is not the case. It's a different model. I truly hope that Fauci was confused because if he was not he was intentionally misleading people.

I heard 80,000 to 150,000 during a previous briefing. Checked the model at that time and it was around 80,000. Lot of info to keep up with if you miss one briefing.

Shelter on place is working. Wish some one other than Trump would lead the briefings. Speaks like a 5th grader.

I have to correct myself in that I used the March 25 Washington Model projection before. The 100,000 through 200,000 range figure was given during a March 31 press briefing. The March 31 Washington Model projection was point estimate 93,765 and range 41,320 through 177,625. It's still the case that citing the 100,000 through 200,000 projection as a baseline while comparing it to the current projection of a model that was predicting 41,320 through 177,625 at the time is misleading in that it exaggerates the extent to which projections have changed.

Changing from 41,320 through 177,625 to 26,487 through 155,315 is notable but it's nothing like changing from 100,000 through 200,000 to there.

You can see what the Washington Model was predicting at any given time by going to their page at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. You can see "Previous data" links by date just under the button you'd press to look at the most recent projection. If you click a link you will download a zip file with a CSV file. Open it in Excel. You can get the point estimate as well as the lower and upper limits of the prediction interval by summing values in the deaths_mean, deaths_lower, and deaths_upper columns. Sum only the values for the United States in the location_name column. In one file I saw it indicated "United States" and in another I saw it as "US."

I Googled around some and see that there are models that were showing ranges higher than that projected by the Washington Model. Lower as well. I found an article at https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive. ... imate-come that refers to a lower limit as low as 19,000 and reference to an upper limit as high as 1.2 million. But, whatever Model was or Models were used, they shouldn't now be comparing that 100,000 through 200,000 range to projections from a different Model Whatever they did to get that 100,000 through 200,000 range, they should be doing the same thing now in order to make the comparison.

[AZGrizFan]

You do understand that whatever the actual numbers end up being, they will be skewed downward because of mitigation/containment strategies?

And containment doesn’t mean cure. Cure comes with a vaccine which normally takes years...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... han-a-year

That doesn’t mean restrictions can’t be relaxed sooner. They most certainly will. But it also means the world will continue to have outbreaks and community spread (hopefully all quickly contained) until a vaccine is nailed down.

True, and more than 5% will be people over 60 with a high percentage will need hospitalization. This will over burden the hospitals if left unmitigated. Plus the death rate, not hospitalization for those under 50, is still .2%, filling more hospital beds.

Maybe the banks could do something to help people with money problems, like no payments during this pandemic for corona unemployed. And add the extra time on the end of the loans and mortgages after mitigation is over.

Lol. If your bank isn’t already doing ALL those things you’re banking at the wrong place. But here’s the problem. After 90 days of this, we gotta start back up. And if people arent’ working or are still in lockdown in June, the entire banking system is in serious shit.

At 1% charge offs banks/credit unions make money.
At 2% charge offs banks/credit unions are insolvent.

When the new unemployment numbers come out (10-12% if not higher), we can expect charge offs to jump commensurately. Stand the fuck by at that point.

[AZGrizFan]

You do understand that whatever the actual numbers end up being, they will be skewed downward because of mitigation/containment strategies?

And containment doesn’t mean cure. Cure comes with a vaccine which normally takes years...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... han-a-year

That doesn’t mean restrictions can’t be relaxed sooner. They most certainly will. But it also means the world will continue to have outbreaks and community spread (hopefully all quickly contained) until a vaccine is nailed down.

True, and more than 5% will be people over 60 with a high percentage will need hospitalization. This will over burden the hospitals if left unmitigated. Plus the death rate, not hospitalization for those under 50, is still .2%, filling more hospital beds.

Will they? Because hospitals across the country (with the exception of a few minor hotspots) are sitting EMPTY. Doctors and nurses being furloughed. Field hospitals hastily constructed two weeks ago being taken down having NEVER SEEN A SINGLE PATIENT. USNS hospital ships rushed to hot spots, only to sit empty in the harbor.

Wake up, people.

[kalm]

True, and more than 5% will be people over 60 with a high percentage will need hospitalization. This will over burden the hospitals if left unmitigated. Plus the death rate, not hospitalization for those under 50, is still .2%, filling more hospital beds.

Will they? Because hospitals across the country (with the exception of a few minor hotspots) are sitting EMPTY. Doctors and nurses being furloughed. Field hospitals hastily constructed two weeks ago being taken down having NEVER SEEN A SINGLE PATIENT. USNS hospital ships rushed to hot spots, only to sit empty in the harbor.

Wake up, people.

Z,

I truly hope you’re right on all of this as it would show that social distancing works. There are some solid signs, especially out here in the west that we’ve crested and dropped the curve to a steady 3-5% rate of infection.

Do you have any supporting links?

[AZGrizFan]

Will they? Because hospitals across the country (with the exception of a few minor hotspots) are sitting EMPTY. Doctors and nurses being furloughed. Field hospitals hastily constructed two weeks ago being taken down having NEVER SEEN A SINGLE PATIENT. USNS hospital ships rushed to hot spots, only to sit empty in the harbor.

Wake up, people.

Z,

I truly hope you’re right on all of this as it would show that social distancing works. There are some solid signs, especially out here in the west that we’ve crested and dropped the curve to a steady 3-5% rate of infection.

Do you have any supporting links?

Lots of them. Just don’t know how to post them on an ipad.

Social distancing would JUST NOW be beginning to work if it was the cause of the curve changing shape.

My point is this: Keep the few, isolated hot spots closed, but let the other 90% of the country get back to work. We’ve effectively fixed a crack in the windshield with a sledgehammer again....it just makes no sense.

If I’m under 65 with no underlying health issues, the death rate is the same as the flu. I don’t sit in my home every day and worry about catching the flu. I don’t lock myself in my house and report my neighbors for going out because of the flu. Is there a risk of dying from the flu? Yes. Is there a risk of dying from COVID 19? Yes. But unless I’m in a high risk group, WTF? We’ve turned our entire country on its collective ear because of a virus who’s death rate is less than 1% (COMBINED).

[kalm]

Z,

I truly hope you’re right on all of this as it would show that social distancing works. There are some solid signs, especially out here in the west that we’ve crested and dropped the curve to a steady 3-5% rate of infection.

Do you have any supporting links?

Lots of them. Just don’t know how to post them on an ipad.

Social distancing would JUST NOW be beginning to work if it was the cause of the curve changing shape.

My point is this: Keep the few, isolated hot spots closed, but let the other 90% of the country get back to work. We’ve effectively fixed a crack in the windshield with a sledgehammer again....it just makes no sense.

If I’m under 65 with no underlying health issues, the death rate is the same as the flu. I don’t sit in my home every day and worry about catching the flu. I don’t lock myself in my house and report my neighbors for going out because of the flu. Is there a risk of dying from the flu? Yes. Is there a risk of dying from COVID 19? Yes. But unless I’m in a high risk group, WTF? We’ve turned our entire country on its collective ear because of a virus who’s death rate is less than 1% (COMBINED).

There are anecdotal stories supporting both downplaying the virus and incidences of super spreaders and breakouts. Then there’s stuff like this.


https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/ ... r-suggest/

Just haven’t seen much supporting the notion of gross overreaction and hospitals.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Its not because of poor response it poor planning on their part. Not having a savings account but 10 cell phones, tattoos and 5 vehicles are all fully funded.

They earned it

True. Do you apply the same to the banks and large corporations?

Absolutely which is why they should fail and their CEOs fired and jailed. Just like auto manufacturers. They should never be bailed out

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

[AZGrizFan]

Lots of them. Just don’t know how to post them on an ipad.

Social distancing would JUST NOW be beginning to work if it was the cause of the curve changing shape.

My point is this: Keep the few, isolated hot spots closed, but let the other 90% of the country get back to work. We’ve effectively fixed a crack in the windshield with a sledgehammer again....it just makes no sense.

If I’m under 65 with no underlying health issues, the death rate is the same as the flu. I don’t sit in my home every day and worry about catching the flu. I don’t lock myself in my house and report my neighbors for going out because of the flu. Is there a risk of dying from the flu? Yes. Is there a risk of dying from COVID 19? Yes. But unless I’m in a high risk group, WTF? We’ve turned our entire country on its collective ear because of a virus who’s death rate is less than 1% (COMBINED).

There are anecdotal stories supporting both downplaying the virus and incidences of super spreaders and breakouts. Then there’s stuff like this.


https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/ ... r-suggest/

Just haven’t seen much supporting the notion of gross overreaction and hospitals.

Yeah, you’re right. It’s just a wacko right wing conspiracy theory.

Both USNS ships that were sent to LA & NY sit empty.
The field hospital hastily constructed in Seattle to hold 250 patients? Dismantled yesterday, having not seen a SINGLE patient.
Doctors and nurses being furloughed all over America (with the exception of NYC and 2-3 other hot spots)
Respirators and ventilators being returned, unused en masse.

Meanwhile, deaths being revised and recounted as COVID deaths, because guess what? The hospital gets $13,000 for every COVID case and $39,000 for every case put on a ventilator....insurance companies are covering 100% of costs, as opposed to what they’d normally cover for cases NOT involving COVID.

Follow the money. As usual. It ain’t rocket science. Who benefits from the country being shut down. Who benefits from overcounting COVID cases.

[93henfan]

Looks like we plateaued a week ago, without a treatment or vaccine, so that's a good thing. Trump's leadership is seeing us through the Chinavirus crisis. Stock market up 25% in the last three weeks.

[houndawg]

There are anecdotal stories supporting both downplaying the virus and incidences of super spreaders and breakouts. Then there’s stuff like this.


https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/ ... r-suggest/

Just haven’t seen much supporting the notion of gross overreaction and hospitals.

Yeah, you’re right. It’s just a wacko right wing conspiracy theory.

Both USNS ships that were sent to LA & NY sit empty.
The field hospital hastily constructed in Seattle to hold 250 patients? Dismantled yesterday, having not seen a SINGLE patient.
Doctors and nurses being furloughed all over America (with the exception of NYC and 2-3 other hot spots)
Respirators and ventilators being returned, unused en masse.

Meanwhile, deaths being revised and recounted as COVID deaths, because guess what? The hospital gets $13,000 for every COVID case and $39,000 for every case put on a ventilator....insurance companies are covering 100% of costs, as opposed to what they’d normally cover for cases NOT involving COVID.

Follow the money. As usual. It ain’t rocket science. Who benefits from the country being shut down. Who benefits from overcounting COVID cases.

We need to stay shut down for at least another 4-6 weeks. Capital won't like it but its the right thing to do. The economy will always recover.

[Silenoz]

Z,

I truly hope you’re right on all of this as it would show that social distancing works. There are some solid signs, especially out here in the west that we’ve crested and dropped the curve to a steady 3-5% rate of infection.

Do you have any supporting links?

Lots of them. Just don’t know how to post them on an ipad.

Social distancing would JUST NOW be beginning to work if it was the cause of the curve changing shape.

My point is this: Keep the few, isolated hot spots closed, but let the other 90% of the country get back to work. We’ve effectively fixed a crack in the windshield with a sledgehammer again....it just makes no sense.

If I’m under 65 with no underlying health issues, the death rate is the same as the flu. I don’t sit in my home every day and worry about catching the flu. I don’t lock myself in my house and report my neighbors for going out because of the flu. Is there a risk of dying from the flu? Yes. Is there a risk of dying from COVID 19? Yes. But unless I’m in a high risk group, WTF? We’ve turned our entire country on its collective ear because of a virus who’s death rate is less than 1% (COMBINED).

Hot spots. As in metropolitan areas. As in places like San Antonio. The distancing IS working, and people want to use it to claim there was never gonna be a problem in the first place.

And no, it's not the same as the flu, regardless of how many times you want to convince yourself of that. Not in death rates, not in symptoms, not in contagiousness, not in immunity, nothing.

This is like convincing a Griz fan that the Cats are better than us. The mind violently revolts, clammoring for any alternate reality it can cling to.

[Ibanez]

RIght? Those pesky facts....

My favorite is when news agencies use bad scales in their graphs.

Like this




https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-friend ... fox-charts



The Point for You, AZ and CID: All outlets lie, mislead and peddle falsehoods. Quit acting like CNN is the only one.

Where have I defended one outlet over another?

Do I need to put a fucking disclaimer when I point out a specific example of media malfeasance? Seems like a waste of time. Can I put it in my siggy so you won’t think I harbor secret affinity for FOX News (which has zero overseas presence)?

Settle down, trigger.


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[Ibanez]

I don’t necessarily disagree. I’ve got friends that are terrified of how they’ll pay rent or feed their kids. How much of this is an overreaction? Due to poor response?


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Good questions, unfortunately we probably won't know until this is well behind us but probably a portion of both.

MrsCCU and I were discussing this earlier. Trump was given too awful choices to make. Any
President would’ve made 1 of 2 made choices. It was lose-lose.


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[Ibanez]

Michigan's donk governor ordered stores to close their plant and garden centers which means people can't buy seed to plant their own gardens.



https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 131283002/

How retarded is that. This section of the store is open. That section is closed. Someone needs to tell that dumb bitch that its Spring planting time.
To think Biden might pick that her as his VP lol..

So dumb. I had my seeds/plants in the ground weeks ago. My second crop will be bad because the damn dog decided to jump up and rip apart the containers with my new seedlings. Fucker


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[Ibanez]

Can we at least agree that MediaMatters is no more a legitimate source than FOX, CNN or MSNBC?

Yes. An apparently ABC as well.


Legit or trustworthy?


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[UNI88]

How is the pandemic going on Earth 2 under President Hillary Clinton?

Interesting read.