Coronavirus COVID-19

[AZGrizFan]

Lots of them. Just don’t know how to post them on an ipad.

Social distancing would JUST NOW be beginning to work if it was the cause of the curve changing shape.

My point is this: Keep the few, isolated hot spots closed, but let the other 90% of the country get back to work. We’ve effectively fixed a crack in the windshield with a sledgehammer again....it just makes no sense.

If I’m under 65 with no underlying health issues, the death rate is the same as the flu. I don’t sit in my home every day and worry about catching the flu. I don’t lock myself in my house and report my neighbors for going out because of the flu. Is there a risk of dying from the flu? Yes. Is there a risk of dying from COVID 19? Yes. But unless I’m in a high risk group, WTF? We’ve turned our entire country on its collective ear because of a virus who’s death rate is less than 1% (COMBINED).

Hot spots. As in metropolitan areas. As in places like San Antonio. The distancing IS working, and people want to use it to claim there was never gonna be a problem in the first place.

And no, it's not the same as the flu, regardless of how many times you want to convince yourself of that. Not in death rates, not in symptoms, not in contagiousness, not in immunity, nothing.

This is like convincing a Griz fan that the Cats are better than us. The mind violently revolts, clammoring for any alternate reality it can cling to.

Wrong.



Or how about this one with people with no pre-existing conditions:



So like I said, let the 80-somethings and those with preexisting conditions stay home and take precautions —like they would during ANY flu season—and let the rest of us get the fuck back to work.

[89Hen]

How is the pandemic going on Earth 2 under President Hillary Clinton?

Interesting read.

Yeah, really interesting. Hard to tell if that was something actually from The Onion or a Daily Kos Liberal Porn article.

[UNI88]

How is the pandemic going on Earth 2 under President Hillary Clinton?

Interesting read.

Yeah, really interesting. Hard to tell if that was something actually from The Onion or a Daily Kos Liberal Porn article.

"Earth 2 would be many times better than Earth 1. But it would not feel that way." cracked me up.

[kalm]

Hot spots. As in metropolitan areas. As in places like San Antonio. The distancing IS working, and people want to use it to claim there was never gonna be a problem in the first place.

And no, it's not the same as the flu, regardless of how many times you want to convince yourself of that. Not in death rates, not in symptoms, not in contagiousness, not in immunity, nothing.

This is like convincing a Griz fan that the Cats are better than us. The mind violently revolts, clammoring for any alternate reality it can cling to.

Wrong.



Or how about this one with people with no pre-existing conditions:



So like I said, let the 80-somethings and those with preexisting conditions stay home and take precautions —like they would during ANY flu season—and let the rest of us get the fuck back to work.

World wide? U.S.? Per infection? Source?

[BDKJMU]

You do understand that whatever the actual numbers end up being, they will be skewed downward because of mitigation/containment strategies?

And containment doesn’t mean cure. Cure comes with a vaccine which normally takes years...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... han-a-year

That doesn’t mean restrictions can’t be relaxed sooner. They most certainly will. But it also means the world will continue to have outbreaks and community spread (hopefully all quickly contained) until a vaccine is nailed down.

Yup.
The teeth grinding over Trump's desire to "open up the economy" is ridiculous. There is a reckless way of doing it, and there is a low risk way of doing it. He is not going to do the "cannonball in the pool" approach.

The rapid test that will roll out next week will be the biggest aid. He will have the national health experts offer guidance to governors on descriptions of low risk businesses, safe practices (such as employee/customer space per square foot), and cities/communities where it can be recommended first. People are certainly more educated at this point. You can see the changes in behavior patterns in grocery stores day by day.

Will there be an overshoot (second wave bigger than desired)? In some places, yes. Just have to deal with that as they pop up. I don't see a solution to bars/restaurants, stadiums, theaters, events, etc. though. Heard one suggestion that baseball return to play with no fans and only the starting lineup allowed in the dugout. Remaining players sit in the stands close by the dugouts. The concern being any amount of heavy breathing can cause a higher risk of spread so spacing is important. Clubhouse practices would be altered such as no showers, no buffets, etc.

Our lives are upside down until a vaccine is developed. And the likelihood of one in the next 12-18 months is a long shot. It's an extremely difficult process. No vaccine was ever developed for SARS or MERS. But we can't stay imobilized for much longer. This is going to come down to risk-taking. It will be trial and error. And there will be errors.

We've been hearing 12-18 months for several months now. I know the 1st trials started in Jan.. Eventually its got to change to 10-16, or 9-15 months, or something. There's probably never been this much worldwide effort put into to developing a vaccine. With dozens of worldwide trials, odds are I think we'll get one in record, or near record time, probably sometime 2021. Heard last month some doc claiming the record is 20 months, forgot what vaccine.

But yeah, there's a slim chance we might never get one. Because of that possibility, you can't keep your lives upside down until a vaccine. That's why when we get mass testing (there now) for the virus and antibodies (soon), proven therapeutics (probably this year), we have to return to life before: packed restaurants & bars, full stadiums, churches, events, etc. We'll develop herd immunity under a flattened curve, and life will go on..

[AZGrizFan]

Wrong.



Or how about this one with people with no pre-existing conditions:



So like I said, let the 80-somethings and those with preexisting conditions stay home and take precautions —like they would during ANY flu season—and let the rest of us get the fuck back to work.

World wide? U.S.? Per infection? Source?

Found those same charts referenced in a different place that says those are China numbers....which immediately makes me suspect them.

[BDKJMU]

Tests have now topped 2.5 million BTW..

[AZGrizFan]

Here’s a chart from 4/5 for NYC....of course, I believe they are OVER-reporting (opposite of China) their cases/deaths, so take THESE with a grain of salt as well...



the truth lies somewhere in the middle, which again, shows 60 and below are no more at risk....

[AZGrizFan]

Here’s one of those horrribly crowded hospitals in NYC on 3/31/20

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Hot spots. As in metropolitan areas. As in places like San Antonio. The distancing IS working, and people want to use it to claim there was never gonna be a problem in the first place.

And no, it's not the same as the flu, regardless of how many times you want to convince yourself of that. Not in death rates, not in symptoms, not in contagiousness, not in immunity, nothing.

This is like convincing a Griz fan that the Cats are better than us. The mind violently revolts, clammoring for any alternate reality it can cling to.

Wrong.



Or how about this one with people with no pre-existing conditions:



So like I said, let the 80-somethings and those with preexisting conditions stay home and take precautions —like they would during ANY flu season—and let the rest of us get the fuck back to work.

This plannedemic is being revealed to the masses even though the media is telling lies and a different story.

Total bullshit from the get go

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

[Silenoz]

No more risk? I'm no mathematician, but if there was a 2.5% chance I'd die if I got in my car and drove across town, I sure as fuck wouldn't drive across town.

[Baldy]

Best Twatter thread ever...

[BDKJMU]

No more risk? I'm no mathematician, but if there was a 2.5% chance I'd die if I got in my car and drove across town, I sure as fuck wouldn't drive across town.

What are the weekly deaths in the other states?

[Silenoz]

No more risk? I'm no mathematician, but if there was a 2.5% chance I'd die if I got in my car and drove across town, I sure as fuck wouldn't drive across town.

What are the weekly deaths in the other states?

You mean the ones we could get in front of this with social distancing? Those ones?

[Silenoz]

Or are you saying NY has a different disease moving through it than other states?

[Skjellyfetti]

Here’s a chart from 4/5 for NYC....of course, I believe they are OVER-reporting (opposite of China) their cases/deaths, so take THESE with a grain of salt as well...



the truth lies somewhere in the middle, which again, shows 60 and below are no more at risk....

It's not just deaths.

The column you should also be looking at is the hospitalization rate. We don't have the ICU beds to treat ~8% of the population (just looking at < 45 ages). THAT'S what all this social distancing has been about.

If there are enough beds to treat everyone who needs hospitalization... the death count is relatively low. If hospitals get swamped... the death rate explodes.

[BDKJMU]

No more risk? I'm no mathematician, but if there was a 2.5% chance I'd die if I got in my car and drove across town, I sure as fuck wouldn't drive across town.

What are the weekly deaths in the other states?

Or are you saying NY has a different disease moving through it than other states?

[UNI88]

What are the weekly deaths in the other states?

Or are you saying NY has a different disease moving through it than other states?

Link?

[JohnStOnge]

I think by the time all the estimates are done with this it's going to be seen as WAY worse than the seasonal flu.

Here is something that offers interesting perspective: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/ho ... imates.htm

It's on how CDC estimates influenza burden including cases and deaths but I think it's reasonable to say that when all this is said and done they will use the same basic approaches to estimate COVID-19 cases and deaths.

In the section on estimating case numbers they have a reference (5). If you click on that it takes to to a link. The link is:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/15/12/09-1413_article

Right now the case number you are seeing for the US is the number of cases where there have been positive lab results. Some are presumptive positives recorded by states that are awaiting confirmation by the CDC but virtually all of them will be confirmed. If you click on the second link I posted you will see in the abstract that, during the April through July 2009 when the H1N1 pandemic was going on, there were 43,677 lab confirmed cases of H1N1. That's over four months.

Through yesterday, after about 2 1/2 months of this thing going on, the CDC had counted 492,416 lab test identified cases.

The 43,677 lab confirmed H1N1 cases mentioned in the abstract translated to an estimated 1.8 through 5.7 million cases. It's not in the abstract but in the body of the article you can find that there were 302 deaths counted as H1N1 associated at the time. That translated into an estimate of from 550 through 1,300 deaths. CDC had counted 18,559 COVID-19 deaths in the United Stats through yesterday. And I think it's safe to say we have some distance to go on that front. When the estimates come out, the estimates for COVID-19 associated deaths are probably going to involve some pretty big numbers.

When this is over people who said this is just going to be like the typical flu are going to look silly. That includes me at first because at first I didn't think it'd be that big a deal. Bear in mind that we are getting these numbers when we are taking all these extreme measures to reduce transmission. That's got to factor into the thinking of how serious a threat this was when people are looking back at the current time. When we see estimates of flu associated deaths, we see numbers that are in the context of people going about their daily lives with no big effort to social distance, ban gatherings, close theaters, etc.

[kalm]

What are the weekly deaths in the other states?

Or are you saying NY has a different disease moving through it than other states?

Which also shows social distancing is working.

[kalm]

No link for this one (its a private group) so take it with a grain of salt like everything else. But I can tell you it’s very well researched from a mathematical, scientific, and historical level.

Topic 1. Is less important. Topic 2 is the long game important stuff.

If it’s TL/DR for you, that’s ok.......................

Good evening, here are today's numbers.

1) Lets start off with some very good news. In the Pacific Northwest, across every state and province, I believe we are on the verge of transition from flattening the curve to achieving what I call "Containment" of the Disease. I use the term Containment to mean our healthcare system combined with our larger population have applied mitigation and treatment measures to the disease in such quantity and ferocity that the disease infection rate is not growing materially, there is little to no stress on the healthcare system and the chance of near term community spread of the next two weeks as long as we keep on keeping on is quite low and even borderline remote. I mark this unscientific, unofficial definition as when the daily rate of infection increase averages under 5% and is closer to 2.5% for a week or more. We are on the verge of this in every PNW Jurisdiction, along with Arizona, Nevada, California and Colorado. This is a milestone. I make this definitional delineation based on structures and trends that are starting to emerge within the daily data. We have accumulated nearly a month of daily data and there are some very interesting patterns starting to emerge with the data that appear to be holding across locations. I'll comment on a few of these over the next few days.

2) Now the not so good news / discussion. This is a WAR, and truly the first world war the globe has experienced since WWII. Globally most of society and our collective memory have forgotten what it is like to fight or be in the middle of a war because since WWII there have been so few wars, relatively speaking, and an even, much smaller portion of the overall global population has either fought in one or been actively mobilized to support one. As such we as humans have lost, forgot or misremembered (yes I went full "W" malapropism on that one) the emotional, personal, work and societal coping skills and tools to live in a time of extended war. Please have no illusions, no matter what the Trumpists of the WORLD say about this situation, this is going to be a protracted war of 12 to 48 months. It could be a short or war (9 to 18 months) or a longer one of 3 to 5 years, we just don't know at this point.

We NEED to embrace the very real suck that this is a much different war, the type of war we have forgotten on how to fight apparently. It is a war of global scale and even though we have LOTS of experience as a human race with this type of warfare, pandemics, our current political leadership in key countries around the world is either incompetent or to self serving to serve the interests of their citizens or the world. The enemy is invisible, the battle lines are not in fields or out at sea, but rather in hospitals and our primary soldiers are doctors and nurses, healthcare administrators, delivery drivers and garbageman, firemen and police officers; rather than infantrymen, sailors and marines. The enemy strikes silently with little warning. This makes it a very, very hard war to fight, and because of the the intangible nature of the enemy it is very easy for the human animal to discount the threat, rationalize it away based on comfortable pseudo science arguments that are tailored to the human predilection for information that confirms our inherent biases. This human frailty causes the phenomenon know as the Fog of War to raise its ugly head. The term Fog of War references the uncertainty in war was coined by Carl von Clausewitz:

War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.
— Carl von Clausewitz

The fog of war is a reality in all conflicts. Precision and certainty are unattainable goals, but military doctrine suggests a trade off of precision and certainty for speed and agility is the way to reduce the huge risks associated with the Fog of War. Military forces employ command and control systems and processes to attempt to alleviate the fog of war. The term also applies to the experience of individual soldiers in battle: often cited is the pure confusion of direction, location, and perspective on a battlefield. Officers and soldiers become separated, orders become confused and subject to revision with poor communication. Sounds and vision are limited from the perspective of the individual and may not be easily resolved, resulting in a continuing uncertainty, a perceptual "fog".

In the Military realm The fog of war has been decreasing as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology is improving and operational procedures and process are used to mitigate its affects. In 2016, Chief of Staff of the United States Army Gen. Mark A. Milley stated that "On the future battlefield, if you stay in one place longer than two or three hours, you will be dead... With enemy drones and sensors constantly on the hunt for targets, there won’t even be time for four hours' unbroken sleep."

So please take a moment or ten, and think about all of that, but now change out the words enemy for COVID-19 or war profiteers, soldiers and battlefields for Healthcare workers and Hospitals or Families and Homes; as this is where this war is being fought and where the fog rises up. Consider all of the different ways this could manifest itself in today's world, not in a military combat situation but in an invisible global viral plague. A key consideration is that our Health Care workers and the General population have limited tools and very limited to almost no training and procedures for dealing with the Fog of this War. The best tool we have is information, the news media and our political and scientific leaders to provide us with that information, along with infrastructure of national, state, provincial and local governments. When that information is compromised or bad, based on pseudo science, or out right propaganda and lies, or our leaders are either unable or pejoratively unwilling to provide high integrity, clear and transparent information; the one and almost only tool that is available to the individual in this war is convoluted and turned it into a very deadly heat seeking missile pointed at ourselves and our loved ones.

The reason I point this out and am spending so much time on my soap box tonight about it, is everyone in this group matters to me or one of my good friends and by extension matters to me, that along with everyone here is in some capacity, an influencer that can help cause a positive outcome in this war through actions and deeds. Right now there is not a lot most people can do but hunker down and not infect anyone, but what everyone can do is actively be a counter to mis-information in the Fog of this War.

We all need to recognize this, what is old, is again, the new normal, in the form of the condition of globally engaged warfare and proceed accordingly. I believe we need to recognize that we are just in the first series of battles in this war, these battles will conclude over the next 60 days, there will be a pause, and then likely another series of Battles will pop up again and then again and then again, and we will be in a series of battles of different length and intensity until we find both a scalable pharmaceutical cure and a preventive vaccination. This is the reality that Trump and other leaders around the world, (Trump and his Trumpists aren't the only guilty ones) cant bring themselves to acknowledge because it is not self serving for them. We need to recognize that in the next phase of this war there will be war profiteers of all kinds, economic, social, political, etc. that will leverage the dark arts of propaganda and the condition of the Fog of War for their own gain. You ask what is different than the politics of the last 20 years; the material difference - this condition today could, can and will enable propagandists to take advantage of everyone in everyone way possible all the way and up to killing large numbers of our friends and family in away and with a speed that we are not remotely accustomed too in their greedy pursuits. The Mass Graves in Hart Park in New York today should be all the evidence anyone needs about the reality of this. So, I'm asking each of you to be vigilant and help shoot down or social distance the disinformation and lies spread in the global consciousness because those are deadly hand grenades in this war. These hand grenades are no longer just emotional bombs that will piss people off when dropped on a message board or thread, they just aren't just an ego stroke for a keyboard warrior troll that is aggravating but harmless on the interwebs, now they are truly deadly weapons that are economically ruining people business and killing people and are going to kill many more. The governments wont stop this, on people pushing back will stop this.

Thank you for reading my very long sermon! I apologize for all typos, grammatical errors and massively run on sentences.

[BDKJMU]

Link?

You must not have been on here last Sun-Mon..
viewtopic.php?p=1303912#p1303912

[UNI88]

Link?

You must not have been on here last Sun-Mon..
viewtopic.php?p=1303912#p1303912

I was here. You reposted a graph that Fiver posted earlier. I want a link to where that graph came from. If you can't provide it, why did you repost it? And don't tell me it's in the information at the top. Those links are to information on flu deaths and the graph is for all deaths.

I would really like to take a look at the original page and see if whether I can break the information down into component parts and find out where deaths are dropping. Maybe Fiver can provide the link.

[AZGrizFan]

Here’s a chart from 4/5 for NYC....of course, I believe they are OVER-reporting (opposite of China) their cases/deaths, so take THESE with a grain of salt as well...



the truth lies somewhere in the middle, which again, shows 60 and below are no more at risk....

It's not just deaths.

The column you should also be looking at is the hospitalization rate. We don't have the ICU beds to treat ~8% of the population (just looking at < 45 ages). THAT'S what all this social distancing has been about.

If there are enough beds to treat everyone who needs hospitalization... the death count is relatively low. If hospitals get swamped... the death rate explodes.

So your assumption is that every single person in America gets infected?

[BDKJMU]

You must not have been on here last Sun-Mon..
viewtopic.php?p=1303912#p1303912

I was here. You reposted a graph that Fiver posted earlier. I want a link to where that graph came from. If you can't provide it, why did you repost it? And don't tell me it's in the information at the top. Those links are to information on flu deaths and the graph is for all deaths.

I would really like to take a look at the original page and see if whether I can break the information down into component parts and find out where deaths are dropping. Maybe Fiver can provide the link.

Yeah, I don't have it. Have to get it from your fellow Iowegian.