2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

GannonFan wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:36 am What a cluster of an election. Both Trump and Biden say the other can't win without cheating, the Senate doesn't flop control but will be tighter, the House doesn't move very much at all, and we're likely looking at either a Biden Presidency with no mandate and no control of Congress or a Trump Presidency with no mandate and no control of Congress (but control of the upper half, which is better than the alternative). Neither candidate is really bringing anything to the table in terms of policy or improvement for the country, so we're stuck with 4 years of ineffective leadership and bitterly divided partisan sniping in a Congress that won't be able to do anything because they can't dare talk to the other side. And no matter who wins there's a chance they could die in office or be 25th'd out sooner than later.

You'd like to think that come 2024 we have to do better - this was always going to be a cluster of an election because the two guys at the top of it just flat out stunk in terms of leaders. But who are the leaders who will step up next time? The Dems started campaigning the moment Trump was elected and after 4 years the best they could do is a mentally diminished and decrepit Joe Biden. The GOP has been saddled with the personality cult of Trump and with the way he sucks the air out of the room you can't even tell who's standing that could fill the gap once he stomps off the stage. Maybe in 4 years a Harris versus Haley matchup could materialize into something promising for the nation, but both will have to step it up in terms of leadership between now and then.
:clap: :clap: This will be a narrow victory. You're right, there'll be no mandate. But i'm not sure that's important. Trump is bigly popular despite losing the popular vote - more Americans wanted someone else. The Democrats have continued to show how inept they are about looking at their party as a whole and looking at how their opposition wins and saying, " How can we mimic that?"

We were with friends until 4am, they're uber liberals (one is Cuban-American) and they're pissed at the Democrats. The identity politics, focusing so much energy on BLM instead kitchen politics, plays right into the Republicans hands.

We're in for a contentious few days.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SDHornet »

Not surprised to wake up with Biden in the lead in almost all of the remaining seats after mail in votes are counted. MI Senate race had John James up sizeable and now it's pretty paltry ~60k lead. DNC will manufacture the ballots to pull that one out.

Either way you slice it this is the worst case for the country as I'm sure the legal battle will rage on for weeks. Was hoping to have a decided outcome one way or another so everyone can move on, I know that was asking a lot.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SDHornet »

Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:54 am
We're in for a contentious few days.
Understatement of the millennium.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

Betting markets have flipped again. Last night from 9 to about 1130 had Trump winning....it's now since flipped to 76% Biden.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

SDHornet wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:56 am Not surprised to wake up with Biden in the lead in almost all of the remaining seats after mail in votes are counted. MI Senate race had John James up sizeable and now it's pretty paltry ~60k lead. DNC will manufacture the ballots to pull that one out.

Either way you slice it this is the worst case for the country as I'm sure the legal battle will rage on for weeks. Was hoping to have a decided outcome one way or another so everyone can move on, I know that was asking a lot.
We knew it was going to be like this. The narrow margins really tell a story of how divided we are - something I wish we can overcome.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

SDHornet wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:57 am
Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:54 am
We're in for a contentious few days.
Understatement of the millennium.
:lol: I'm on 4 hours of sleep and on my 2nd pot of coffee....please bear with me today. :lol:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SDHornet »

So knowing it was a surge in support from white men that got Biden the win, will the msm still run with the "muh racism" narratives?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:01 am
SDHornet wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:56 am Not surprised to wake up with Biden in the lead in almost all of the remaining seats after mail in votes are counted. MI Senate race had John James up sizeable and now it's pretty paltry ~60k lead. DNC will manufacture the ballots to pull that one out.

Either way you slice it this is the worst case for the country as I'm sure the legal battle will rage on for weeks. Was hoping to have a decided outcome one way or another so everyone can move on, I know that was asking a lot.
We knew it was going to be like this. The narrow margins really tell a story of how divided we are - something I wish we can overcome.
Did we? Pollsters had Biden WAY up. Lots of suppression polling.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

SeattleGriz wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:07 am
Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:01 am

We knew it was going to be like this. The narrow margins really tell a story of how divided we are - something I wish we can overcome.
Did we? Pollsters had Biden WAY up. Lots of suppression polling.
Trump is running. Of course we knew it was going to be contentious.

And with Trump wanting to suppress the vote by stopping the counting is the clearest indication that Republicans are ok with voter supression - as long as they benefit from it.
Last edited by Ibanez on Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Skjellyfetti »

Increasingly looks like PA won't be needed. Biden up in Michigan now. Still mostly Democratic votes to count.

He's up in enough states to get to 270 without PA or GA. WI and MI may go to recounts... but, favors the initial winner and SCOTUS will probably be less likely to get involved in PA.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

SDHornet wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 am
This. Democrats focus on identity too much. If they'd acknowledge the identity politics but focus on the kitchen table they MIGHT perform better. But they're more concerned with BLM and how you feel instead of how you're going to provide for your family.

To steal a line from Aaron Sorkin's The Newsroom,
You know why people don't like liberals? Because they lose. If liberals are so fuckin' smart, how come they lose so GODDAM ALWAYS!
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:14 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:07 am

Did we? Pollsters had Biden WAY up. Lots of suppression polling.
Trump is running. Of course we knew it was going to be contentious.
It shouldn't have been close was my point. You don't think the media establishment had a hand in all this? Saying Hillary and the Biden were going to landslide? That caused a good amount of contention as well.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

SeattleGriz wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:26 am
Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:14 am

Trump is running. Of course we knew it was going to be contentious.
It shouldn't have been close was my point. You don't think the media establishment had a hand in all this? Saying Hillary and the Biden were going to landslide?
:thumb:
I got you. The media is going off the polls. Between the shy Trump voter, the Republicans voting for Biden and the normal margin of error, 2020 was destined to be as clear as mud. :twocents:

But look at what's happened this morning - Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada are trending Biden. Those states put him at 270 (if he wins them, obviously). Georgia and Pennsylvania are in play. Who would've thought GEORGIA would be in play? The outstanding votes are early voting and absentee ballots which Biden will benefit from.

I think 50/50 chance that we'll have a winner by the end of the day. :twocents:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by houndawg »

SDHornet wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:56 am Not surprised to wake up with Biden in the lead in almost all of the remaining seats after mail in votes are counted. MI Senate race had John James up sizeable and now it's pretty paltry ~60k lead. DNC will manufacture the ballots to pull that one out.

Either way you slice it this is the worst case for the country as I'm sure the legal battle will rage on for weeks. Was hoping to have a decided outcome one way or another so everyone can move on, I know that was asking a lot.
We get the gubmint we deserve. :coffee:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by GannonFan »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:20 am Increasingly looks like PA won't be needed. Biden up in Michigan now. Still mostly Democratic votes to count.

He's up in enough states to get to 270 without PA or GA. WI and MI may go to recounts... but, favors the initial winner and SCOTUS will probably be less likely to get involved in PA.
Yup, he hits 270 right on the nose with the votes where they are. Of course, that means recounts everywhere as just one flipped vote would throw it to a 269 tie. I think he would be the first guy to win with the absolute bare minimum - W had 271 back in 2000. Considering that the Dems then treated the next 8 years as a stolen Presidency and illegitimate, that doesn't bode well for the next 4 years of Biden's term (even if Harris finishes it out) considering that things have gotten even nuttier since the Dems back then were calling W a Nazi.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Gil Dobie »

D Colin Peterson defeated by R Michelle Fischbach. Peterson had been in the house since 1991.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by 89Hen »

Looking more and more like 270-268 with narrow margins. Pollsters were completely wrong. Again.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by 89Hen »

houndawg wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:39 am We get the gubmint we deserve. :coffee:
What do you mean we?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:39 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:26 am

It shouldn't have been close was my point. You don't think the media establishment had a hand in all this? Saying Hillary and the Biden were going to landslide?
:thumb:
I got you. The media is going off the polls. Between the shy Trump voter, the Republicans voting for Biden and the normal margin of error, 2020 was destined to be as clear as mud. :twocents:

But look at what's happened this morning - Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada are trending Biden. Those states put him at 270 (if he wins them, obviously). Georgia and Pennsylvania are in play. Who would've thought GEORGIA would be in play? The outstanding votes are early voting and absentee ballots which Biden will benefit from.

I think 50/50 chance that we'll have a winner by the end of the day. :twocents:
Please remember I'm more of an establishment vs the people believer. I think all of DC is pretty much on the same team.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:54 am
GannonFan wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:36 am What a cluster of an election. Both Trump and Biden say the other can't win without cheating, the Senate doesn't flop control but will be tighter, the House doesn't move very much at all, and we're likely looking at either a Biden Presidency with no mandate and no control of Congress or a Trump Presidency with no mandate and no control of Congress (but control of the upper half, which is better than the alternative). Neither candidate is really bringing anything to the table in terms of policy or improvement for the country, so we're stuck with 4 years of ineffective leadership and bitterly divided partisan sniping in a Congress that won't be able to do anything because they can't dare talk to the other side. And no matter who wins there's a chance they could die in office or be 25th'd out sooner than later.

You'd like to think that come 2024 we have to do better - this was always going to be a cluster of an election because the two guys at the top of it just flat out stunk in terms of leaders. But who are the leaders who will step up next time? The Dems started campaigning the moment Trump was elected and after 4 years the best they could do is a mentally diminished and decrepit Joe Biden. The GOP has been saddled with the personality cult of Trump and with the way he sucks the air out of the room you can't even tell who's standing that could fill the gap once he stomps off the stage. Maybe in 4 years a Harris versus Haley matchup could materialize into something promising for the nation, but both will have to step it up in terms of leadership between now and then.
:clap: :clap: This will be a narrow victory. You're right, there'll be no mandate. But i'm not sure that's important. Trump is bigly popular despite losing the popular vote - more Americans wanted someone else. The Democrats have continued to show how inept they are about looking at their party as a whole and looking at how their opposition wins and saying, " How can we mimic that?"

We were with friends until 4am, they're uber liberals (one is Cuban-American) and they're pissed at the Democrats. The identity politics, focusing so much energy on BLM instead kitchen politics, plays right into the Republicans hands.

We're in for a contentious few days.
I forget who it was on one of the networks I was watching last night but they said the reason why the pollsters have missed so massively across the board is that they don't properly gauge the nationalism that supports Trump. He's a despicable, awful person, and he doesn't really have any platform other than what makes him feel good at the moment, and yet he won one election and came within 2 electoral votes of winning another one, despite being hugely unpopular by wide swaths of the population. And even being as unpopular as he is he hasn't even lost control of Congress for his party either.

You think back to the Reagan days, and even the Clinton days, and heck, even the W days, and even the Obama days. Those guys won, in part, because they championed nationalism, or at least they championed patriotism. They won because they sold the idea that America was a great place, and could be an even better place. As bad as we think we have it here, we really are in a pretty good place in terms of the world. We have issues, but everyone has issues. People still will risk life and limb to get here and live here. Even people in decent places still visit here and then overstay their visas to stay here as well. America, for all of its warts, is still a really great place to be and to live out your life. But right now, Trump is mainly the guy saying that while the Dems have taken the weird tact that not only does America suck, but we've always sucked and we're intrinsically wired to suck and without a complete overhaul we'll continue to suck. I think either party who can find that person who can channel the nationalistic fervor with a good tinge of patriotism, and who isn't bedeviled by being an awful person, can really sweep up in a country desperate for something better than what we've been getting so far in terms of candidates.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by GannonFan »

Gil Dobie wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:40 am D Colin Peterson defeated by R Michelle Fischbach. Peterson had been in the house since 1991.
Perfect example of why term limits (10 years in the house, 18 in the Senate) would be great. What has that guy been doing in the House for almost 30 years? What was he trying to accomplish that somehow he hadn't accomplished in three decades? I like the idea that you run for office with a pet project or mission in mind, you get there, you fight for it, and once you've either achieved your goal or got as far as it will go, you get out and let someone else with their vision go next. I already know why he was there for 30 years - accumulating power and making money. I don't need that in my legislators.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:56 am
Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:54 am
:clap: :clap: This will be a narrow victory. You're right, there'll be no mandate. But i'm not sure that's important. Trump is bigly popular despite losing the popular vote - more Americans wanted someone else. The Democrats have continued to show how inept they are about looking at their party as a whole and looking at how their opposition wins and saying, " How can we mimic that?"

We were with friends until 4am, they're uber liberals (one is Cuban-American) and they're pissed at the Democrats. The identity politics, focusing so much energy on BLM instead kitchen politics, plays right into the Republicans hands.

We're in for a contentious few days.
I forget who it was on one of the networks I was watching last night but they said the reason why the pollsters have missed so massively across the board is that they don't properly gauge the nationalism that supports Trump. He's a despicable, awful person, and he doesn't really have any platform other than what makes him feel good at the moment, and yet he won one election and came within 2 electoral votes of winning another one, despite being hugely unpopular by wide swaths of the population. And even being as unpopular as he is he hasn't even lost control of Congress for his party either.

You think back to the Reagan days, and even the Clinton days, and heck, even the W days, and even the Obama days. Those guys won, in part, because they championed nationalism, or at least they championed patriotism. They won because they sold the idea that America was a great place, and could be an even better place. As bad as we think we have it here, we really are in a pretty good place in terms of the world. We have issues, but everyone has issues. People still will risk life and limb to get here and live here. Even people in decent places still visit here and then overstay their visas to stay here as well. America, for all of its warts, is still a really great place to be and to live out your life. But right now, Trump is mainly the guy saying that while the Dems have taken the weird tact that not only does America suck, but we've always sucked and we're intrinsically wired to suck and without a complete overhaul we'll continue to suck. I think either party who can find that person who can channel the nationalistic fervor with a good tinge of patriotism, and who isn't bedeviled by being an awful person, can really sweep up in a country desperate for something better than what we've been getting so far in terms of candidates.
Belief in American (or insert other brand) exceptionalism has negative consequences as well.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:07 am
GannonFan wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:56 am

I forget who it was on one of the networks I was watching last night but they said the reason why the pollsters have missed so massively across the board is that they don't properly gauge the nationalism that supports Trump. He's a despicable, awful person, and he doesn't really have any platform other than what makes him feel good at the moment, and yet he won one election and came within 2 electoral votes of winning another one, despite being hugely unpopular by wide swaths of the population. And even being as unpopular as he is he hasn't even lost control of Congress for his party either.

You think back to the Reagan days, and even the Clinton days, and heck, even the W days, and even the Obama days. Those guys won, in part, because they championed nationalism, or at least they championed patriotism. They won because they sold the idea that America was a great place, and could be an even better place. As bad as we think we have it here, we really are in a pretty good place in terms of the world. We have issues, but everyone has issues. People still will risk life and limb to get here and live here. Even people in decent places still visit here and then overstay their visas to stay here as well. America, for all of its warts, is still a really great place to be and to live out your life. But right now, Trump is mainly the guy saying that while the Dems have taken the weird tact that not only does America suck, but we've always sucked and we're intrinsically wired to suck and without a complete overhaul we'll continue to suck. I think either party who can find that person who can channel the nationalistic fervor with a good tinge of patriotism, and who isn't bedeviled by being an awful person, can really sweep up in a country desperate for something better than what we've been getting so far in terms of candidates.
Belief in American (or insert other brand) exceptionalism has negative consequences as well.

I don’t ignore the warts on my skin. I have the doc look at them to make sure they aren’t a cancer, then he burns them off. It hurts a little and I have scars for a few weeks but in the end it’s worth it.
Like I said, politicians on both sides managed to channel the nationalistic fervor that lives in many voters (apparently at least half of them, although obviously it's more than that) to not only electoral victories (and well in excess of the 270 number) but then also to legislative victories that tried to correct what was causing those warts in the first place. This current approach isn't like your wart removal personal history at all. It's more like if you found that wart, and then kept it on while telling everyone you meet that you have a wart and that they're all better for not having the same wart. Start wearing some sackcloth and you can run for office.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

SDHornet wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:32 am
Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:31 am
How’s it over? There’s still votes to count. Trump is sowing confusion and fear. Nothing is over. He can’t admit defeat. He knows if he loses - criminal investigations will kick into high gear.

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It's over. DNC stole it.
So Trump's just trying to steal it back by stopping the vote counting on the 3rd?
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