The Ukraine Crisis

[SDHornet]

I have an inclination to wish we would have said we are not going to send any ground forces but we are going to provide air support to the Ukraine. Basically tell Putin, "Ok, you can invade. But you are not going to control the air space if you do. And we are going to tear up your ground forces pretty bad after we establish air superiority." In my wish the US would have started moving aircraft and support infrastructure to Ukraine as well as positioning aircraft carriers quite some time ago. Or, if getting the infrastructure in Ukraine is not possible, I'd wish we'd operate out of other parts of Europe. I am inclined in that way because I think that this is one of those things that needs to be stopped early on if it's going to be stopped without things getting way worse.

But I understand that I don't know. I am inclined to think that we are way superior to Russia in terms of air power. I don't believe they would have any chance against us in air battle. I could be wrong about that.

Also, there is that nuclear weapons thing. Any time this sort of thing starts happening there is that "End of the World as We Know It" thing in the background.

Finally, I know very well that the majority of the US population would not support it.

For a guy that harps on intelligence - that is one of the dumbest things you've ever said. You don't tell an adversary it's ok to invade. What sort of message does that send about your strength? What does that say to the Ukrainians? Other countries that Russia might want to bring back into the fold? If ANY country has the right to tell the Russians they can invade, it's the Ukrainians and only them. I didn't read the rest of your post b/c your second sentence and its proposition is asinine.


Haven't we already learned our "If You Give A Mouse A Cookie" lesson from the Nazis and other dictators??

If you give a Putin a break-off region, he's going to want the Ukraine.
If you give a Putin the Ukraine, he's going to want another former Soviet satellite country.

Thing is they already gave him Crimea...remind us which POTUS that happened under again? And who was in that cabinet?

[SDHornet]

He doesn't need to. The West will allow him to take the "Russian" parts of Ukraine. If he takes "too much" then it'll go hot.

And no one outside of the warmongering elites and MIC will give a fuck.

So your answer is "No"?

My answer is he'll take whatever he can get.

[SDHornet]

Exactly. And, Ukraine must concede those territories to Russia. If not and the fighting continues, Russia uses it as pretext to sack Kiev and reinstall a puppet.

Everybody be overreacting - SD Hornet says there won't be an invasion. And he might be right. But I think Donnie's Daddy wants to go back to the good old days and that he's willing to pay the economic price to make it happen. How many divisions does NATO have?

Funny I don't recall making moves on Ukraine when Orange Man Bad was in office...and we were told that mofo was going to start WW 3.

[Ibanez]

For a guy that harps on intelligence - that is one of the dumbest things you've ever said. You don't tell an adversary it's ok to invade. What sort of message does that send about your strength? What does that say to the Ukrainians? Other countries that Russia might want to bring back into the fold? If ANY country has the right to tell the Russians they can invade, it's the Ukrainians and only them. I didn't read the rest of your post b/c your second sentence and its proposition is asinine.


Haven't we already learned our "If You Give A Mouse A Cookie" lesson from the Nazis and other dictators??

If you give a Putin a break-off region, he's going to want the Ukraine.
If you give a Putin the Ukraine, he's going to want another former Soviet satellite country.

Thing is they already gave him Crimea...remind us which POTUS that happened under again? And who was in that cabinet?

Yup and it was a huge mistake which only emboldened Putin.


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[Ibanez]

Everybody be overreacting - SD Hornet says there won't be an invasion. And he might be right. But I think Donnie's Daddy wants to go back to the good old days and that he's willing to pay the economic price to make it happen. How many divisions does NATO have?

Funny I don't recall making moves on Ukraine when Orange Man Bad was in office...and we were told that mofo was going to start WW 3.

Dude we’re way past WW3. This is like WW4 or 5- at least


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[SDHornet]

Thing is they already gave him Crimea...remind us which POTUS that happened under again? And who was in that cabinet?

Yup and it was a huge mistake which only emboldened Putin.


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But the adults are back in charge.

Oh and good job on this Biden.

[SuperHornet]

I'm no fan of "Orange Man Bad" (thank you for that, SD; I won't soon forget that hilarious remark), but I gotta admit that it DOES seem strange that the Left kept doubling down on the phony idea that he would get us entangled in a nasty foreign conflict, yet nothing of the sort ever happened. Yet Mr. Alzheimers is getting very close.

It does beg the question, though: why did the General Secretary shy away from this while OMB was in office, but he's doing so NOW? Biden isn't crazy, but he IS getting pretty senile. I'm not sure about Putin's strategy here....

[houndawg]

So your answer is "No"?

My answer is he'll take whatever he can get.

Duh.

But per your usual, that wasn't the question asked. SDHornet

[houndawg]

Everybody be overreacting - SD Hornet says there won't be an invasion. And he might be right. But I think Donnie's Daddy wants to go back to the good old days and that he's willing to pay the economic price to make it happen. How many divisions does NATO have?

Funny I don't recall making moves on Ukraine when Orange Man Bad was in office...and we were told that mofo was going to start WW 3.

So is he going to invade?

[houndawg]

I'm no fan of "Orange Man Bad" (thank you for that, SD; I won't soon forget that hilarious remark), but I gotta admit that it DOES seem strange that the Left kept doubling down on the phony idea that he would get us entangled in a nasty foreign conflict, yet nothing of the sort ever happened. Yet Mr. Alzheimers is getting very close.

It does beg the question, though: why did the General Secretary shy away from this while OMB was in office, but he's doing so NOW? Biden isn't crazy, but he IS getting pretty senile. I'm not sure about Putin's strategy here....

So you think we should bail on NATO?

[Ibanez]

I'm no fan of "Orange Man Bad" (thank you for that, SD; I won't soon forget that hilarious remark), but I gotta admit that it DOES seem strange that the Left kept doubling down on the phony idea that he would get us entangled in a nasty foreign conflict, yet nothing of the sort ever happened. Yet Mr. Alzheimers is getting very close.

It does beg the question, though: why did the General Secretary shy away from this while OMB was in office, but he's doing so NOW? Biden isn't crazy, but he IS getting pretty senile. I'm not sure about Putin's strategy here....

Outside forces (Putin) have been more bold under certain presidents. Their perception of those Presidents have essentially dictated actions. Biden is perceived as weak, the American people as too divisive and not having the stomach to stop any incursion, minor or otherwise, into the Ukraine. If Trumps comments are to be believed, and who the hell knows if that's possible, Trump wouldn't have done anything more than heap praise and congratulations on Putin.

[Winterborn]

But the adults are back in charge.

Oh and good job on this Biden.

Prices for DAP, MAP, and Urea are much higher and with Potash is up the most. The vast majority of it is made from Natural Gas. If Natural Gas prices go up, so does fertilizer. The U.S. makes about 11 million metric tons (behind China and India) while Russia produces about 10 million metric tons (2019 numbers).

Among farmers and ranchers, very few topics are being discussed as much as the skyrocketing cost of fertilizer and increasing concerns regarding availability. Given that fertilizer costs account for approximately 15% of total cash costs in the U.S., fertilizer prices are the number one issue on farmers’ minds as they begin to set up purchases for the 2022 growing season. Unfortunately, the fertilizer sticker price farmers in some areas are reporting is up more than 300% and delivery times are anyone’s best guess. We’ve seen this before, in 2008. During the 12 months ending in April 2008, nitrogen prices increased 32%, phosphate prices increased 93% and potash prices increased 100%. Prices remained there through 2009, then dropped, ultimately returning to pre-2007 levels by the end of 2009. That price surge was associated with strong domestic and global demand, low fertilizer inventories and the inability of the U.S. fertilizer industry to adjust production levels. This time around, those same factors are at play, along with several others that add an extra layer of uncertainty.

This article dives into a number of the short- and long-run factors impacting fertilizer supply and demand to provide context to the increasingly expensive production input.

All major nutrients used in the production of primary row crops in the U.S., nitrogen (in the forms of anhydrous ammonia, urea, or liquid nitrogen), phosphorus (diammonium phosphate – DAP and monoammonium phosphate – MAP) and potassium (potash), have experienced varying degrees of upward price pressure. Compared to September 2020 prices, ammonia has increased over 210%, liquid nitrogen has increased over 159%, urea is up 155%, and MAP has increased 125%, while DAP is up over 100% and potash has risen above 134%.

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/too-man ... and-higher

[kalm]

I'm no fan of "Orange Man Bad" (thank you for that, SD; I won't soon forget that hilarious remark), but I gotta admit that it DOES seem strange that the Left kept doubling down on the phony idea that he would get us entangled in a nasty foreign conflict, yet nothing of the sort ever happened. Yet Mr. Alzheimers is getting very close.

It does beg the question, though: why did the General Secretary shy away from this while OMB was in office, but he's doing so NOW? Biden isn't crazy, but he IS getting pretty senile. I'm not sure about Putin's strategy here....

Outside forces (Putin) have been more bold under certain presidents. Their perception of those Presidents have essentially dictated actions. Biden is perceived as weak, the American people as too divisive and not having the stomach to stop any incursion, minor or otherwise, into the Ukraine. If Trumps comments are to be believed, and who the hell knows if that's possible, Trump wouldn't have done anything more than heap praise and congratulations on Putin.

Yep. And it’s all quite confusing. Acting weak is bad. Acting tough gets us into wars. Perhaps Trump and Pompeo’s strategy of showering Putin with praise is the way?

Few other former secretaries of state have weighed in on the crisis, and those that have avoided politics. Condoleeza Rice, former secretary of state under President George W. Bush, called Putin “megalomaniacal” in a CNN interview over the weekend.

There have been eight U.S. secretaries of state since Putin took power in 1999, including four under Republican presidents — Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, Rex Tillerson and Pompeo — and four under Democratic presidents — Madeleine Albright, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and the current secretary, Antony Blinken.

To the contrary, Pompeo has targeted Biden as exemplifying “enormous weakness,” leading “an America on its back, an America that apologizes.” He asserts that Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and response to a ransomware hack of the Colonial pipeline last year contributed to Putin’s confidence.

Putin is “very shrewd. Very capable,” Pompeo said in another recent interview with the Center for the National Interest. “I have enormous respect for him – I’ve been criticized for saying that.”

In the past, former President Donald Trump’s secretary of state has privately dismissed Ukraine as insignificant in U.S. domestic politics. After an interview with an NPR reporter in 2020, Pompeo, then still secretary, pulled the reporter aside to curse at her for her questions, and demanded she identify Ukraine on an unmarked map. “Do you think Americans care about Ukraine?” he asked her.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansas ... 38383.html

[Ibanez]

Outside forces (Putin) have been more bold under certain presidents. Their perception of those Presidents have essentially dictated actions. Biden is perceived as weak, the American people as too divisive and not having the stomach to stop any incursion, minor or otherwise, into the Ukraine. If Trumps comments are to be believed, and who the hell knows if that's possible, Trump wouldn't have done anything more than heap praise and congratulations on Putin.

Yep. And it’s all quite confusing. Acting weak is bad. Acting tough gets us into wars. Perhaps Trump and Pompeo’s strategy of showering Putin with praise is the way?

Few other former secretaries of state have weighed in on the crisis, and those that have avoided politics. Condoleeza Rice, former secretary of state under President George W. Bush, called Putin “megalomaniacal” in a CNN interview over the weekend.

There have been eight U.S. secretaries of state since Putin took power in 1999, including four under Republican presidents — Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, Rex Tillerson and Pompeo — and four under Democratic presidents — Madeleine Albright, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and the current secretary, Antony Blinken.

To the contrary, Pompeo has targeted Biden as exemplifying “enormous weakness,” leading “an America on its back, an America that apologizes.” He asserts that Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and response to a ransomware hack of the Colonial pipeline last year contributed to Putin’s confidence.

Putin is “very shrewd. Very capable,” Pompeo said in another recent interview with the Center for the National Interest. “I have enormous respect for him – I’ve been criticized for saying that.”

In the past, former President Donald Trump’s secretary of state has privately dismissed Ukraine as insignificant in U.S. domestic politics. After an interview with an NPR reporter in 2020, Pompeo, then still secretary, pulled the reporter aside to curse at her for her questions, and demanded she identify Ukraine on an unmarked map. “Do you think Americans care about Ukraine?” he asked her.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansas ... 38383.html

Pompeo criticizing anyone for the Colonial pipeline hack is laughable considering they allowed Solarwinds to go unfettered for nearly an entire year. On top of that - he agreed with everyone (except Trump) that it was Russia. Pompeo is a hack and no amount of weight loss will change that.

[SeattleGriz]

Is it me, or is Freeland essentially repeating Trudeau's comments in her head as he speaks them?

[CID1990]

Yep. And it’s all quite confusing. Acting weak is bad. Acting tough gets us into wars. Perhaps Trump and Pompeo’s strategy of showering Putin with praise is the way?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansas ... 38383.html

Pompeo criticizing anyone for the Colonial pipeline hack is laughable considering they allowed Solarwinds to go unfettered for nearly an entire year. On top of that - he agreed with everyone (except Trump) that it was Russia. Pompeo is a hack and no amount of weight loss will change that.

There’s a bunch of stuff in there that Pompeo isn’t wrong about -

Putin is VERY shrewd. He has played a long succession of US administrations going back to GWB

He is also correct that Americans don’t give two shits about Ukraine. Right now Americans care about Ukraine only so far as it is a left vs right argument.

And I am 95% sure that reporter would not have been able to pick Ukraine off a map.


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[kalm]

Pompeo criticizing anyone for the Colonial pipeline hack is laughable considering they allowed Solarwinds to go unfettered for nearly an entire year. On top of that - he agreed with everyone (except Trump) that it was Russia. Pompeo is a hack and no amount of weight loss will change that.

There’s a bunch of stuff in there that Pompeo isn’t wrong about -

Putin is VERY shrewd.


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Most authoritarians and leaders are.

[93henfan]

Is it me, or is Freeland essentially repeating Trudeau's comments in her head as he speaks them?

Not only that, but the mask makes her look like a bird.

I'm pretty sure we're all just being fucked with in the Matrix at this point.

[houndawg]

I'm no fan of "Orange Man Bad" (thank you for that, SD; I won't soon forget that hilarious remark), but I gotta admit that it DOES seem strange that the Left kept doubling down on the phony idea that he would get us entangled in a nasty foreign conflict, yet nothing of the sort ever happened. Yet Mr. Alzheimers is getting very close.

It does beg the question, though: why did the General Secretary shy away from this while OMB was in office, but he's doing so NOW? Biden isn't crazy, but he IS getting pretty senile. I'm not sure about Putin's strategy here....

Outside forces (Putin) have been more bold under certain presidents. Their perception of those Presidents have essentially dictated actions. Biden is perceived as weak, the American people as too divisive and not having the stomach to stop any incursion, minor or otherwise, into the Ukraine. If Trumps comments are to be believed, and who the hell knows if that's possible, Trump wouldn't have done anything more than heap praise and congratulations on Putin.

And pull out of NATO

[CID1990]

Beijing is watching

https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials ... 2003773594


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[Ibanez]

Is it me, or is Freeland essentially repeating Trudeau's comments in her head as he speaks them?

Not only that, but the mask makes her look like a bird.

I'm pretty sure we're all just being fucked with in the Matrix at this point.

You mean the Metaverse

[UNI88]

Beijing is watching

https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials ... 2003773594

Isn't the precedent a two-edged sword? Not that Kyrgyzstan or another Stan is going to so boldly stand up to China but hypothetically couldn't they use it to help their Uyghur cousins in Xinjiang like Russia is helping ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine?

China is touts its sovereign right to deal with the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Shouldn't they acknowledge Ukraine's right to do the same when it comes to dealing with the Russians in eastern Ukraine? Or is it just might makes right and the rest is just meaningless words?

[CID1990]

Beijing is watching

https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials ... 2003773594

Isn't the precedent a two-edged sword? Not that Kyrgyzstan or another Stan is going to so boldly stand up to China but hypothetically couldn't they use it to help their Uyghur cousins in Xinjiang like Russia is helping ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine?

China is touts its sovereign right to deal with the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Shouldn't they acknowledge Ukraine's right to do the same when it comes to dealing with the Russians in eastern Ukraine? Or is it just might makes right and the rest is just meaningless words?

Your last sentence pretty much is it.

Like the Taipei article said - both Russia and China pursue revanchist foreign policies, although Russia is new to that game. China has laid claim to Taiwan a little longer - since 1949… but at the end of the day, you can only make good on land grabs with the kinetic power to do so. And ultimately the words and justifications are meaningless, especially to the nation that is being chewed up.


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[Ivytalk]

Beijing is watching

https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials ... 2003773594


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Of course they are. Xi is furiously taking notes. And the Biden Administration sees only what’s directly in front of it.

[UNI88]

Beijing is watching

https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials ... 2003773594


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Of course they are. Xi is furiously taking notes. And the Biden Administration sees only what’s directly in front of it.

Ice cream?