2022 Elections Thread

[kalm]

There will sadly remain an effort to render Covid as mostly over-reaction and not a big deal. There was some over-reaction but also grotesque under-reaction. And it was indeed a very big deal.

I do not think there was over-reaction. There was uncertainty and a core tenant of public health is that, when there is uncertainty, you err on the side of protecting public health. And I think that, if most rational people really think about it, they will agree that that's the way it should be.

The problem wasn't just under reaction. It was and continues to be a constant torrent of misinformation. Like the idea that the death counts aren't accurate and that they are being exaggerated. There is always SOME error but they are basically accurate. And most people who are qualified to judge think that the deaths are actually somewhat UNDER reported. Or like all the anti vaccine nonsense. The vaccines are safe by any reasonable standard. They significantly reduce the risk of being a case and even more significantly reduce the risk of severe disease and/or death. Those things are not even remotely debatable from a scientific standpoint. But we still have people trying to undermine confidence in the vaccines.

Ivermectin and hydroxychloriquine do not work. We can't solve the problem by having everybody load up on Vitamin D. So on and so forth.

Fair.

[HI54UNI]

It'd be good to make having a college degree a minimum requirement for voting.

You are a perfect example of why this is a bad idea.

[UNI88]

It'd be good to make having a college degree a minimum requirement for voting.

You are a perfect example of why this is a bad idea.

+1

[SeattleGriz]

That thing? No it wasn't debunked. I can guarantee you have no idea how deaths are coded as with everything else in regards to health and wellness you get wrong.

You don't remember Walensky stating it was fact that many in hospitals were actually admitted for something else, but because hospitals make more money if someone is Covid positive, they PCR'd everyone and drove up a false rate? It's also why there were crazy stories about car deaths being attributed to Covid. It was all about making more money.

So now you've got three problems. The first is an over count of those hospitalized due to overcycled PCR tests picking up viral debris, The second is that they didn't confirm the positive with a viral culture, and the last is when the CDC changed the cycle threshold for the vaccinated, but not the unvaccinated. You're using gamed numbers.

Wolenski did not say hospitals PCRed everyone that drove up so they could make more money. I recall a story about a car death attributed to COVID-19. Just looked it up again. See https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/veri ... ae75c2b2ce. No, car deaths are not in the numbers reported as COVID-19 deaths.

I posted what I think is a good video on this "with COVID and not OF COVID" nonsense below because I think the guy does a good job. He talked specifically about the claim that only 6% of deaths were from COVID-19 but the information has broader application than that because he talks about the death certificate process and the role of co morbidities in COVID-19 deaths.

Aside from that, when I look at the data, the associations for all of the things that are not political make perfect sense. There are associations involving % population >65. There are associations involving population density. There are, yes, associations involving vaccination. You'd have to believe that somehow, by chance, the deficiencies you think exist with deaths reporting worked out by chance to create a dataset where the associations worked out like that. And, when it comes to Party control of States, you'd have to believe that just happened by chance as well. You have to believe that somehow, by chance, the over counting you think has occurred was distributed in a way that created the associations one would reasonably expect.

You've got the entire scientific community considering data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to be reliable enough to base conclusions.

And by the way my wife went to the hospital twice and I went once while COVID-19 was a big deal. Neither of us were tested for COVID-19 on any of the occasions.

We're talking two different things here. I'm talking about when a person is admitted to a hospital. Let's say for a stomach ailment. Protocol is to PCR test them for Covid. If they return a positive result, which was highly likely as they over ramped the test, the hospital then gets a cash payout because the patient is now in the hospital with Covid. It's a case of chasing dollars.

Here is what Walensky said and this article is from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... good-this/

As Walensky noted in the same interview, about 40 percent of people in the hospital who tested positive for the coronavirus did not come in for covid-related reasons. Some state and local numbers suggest this constitutes even a majority of hospitalized people who test positive. The omicron variant is proving extremely contagious, but less severe on a person-by-person basis.

So now 40% or higher were in the hospital for something other than Covid, but those numbers got added to the pile. These hospitals didn't run viral cultures because that's more money and they weren't needed to collect the cash and thus they could not confirm whether it was actual Covid, or leftover debris from a earlier infection.

We won't even get into the high usage of the non-Quantitative PCR tests that were used that returned false results in addition to the differences in the cycle threshold for vaccinated (< 27 cycles) vs unvaccinated (up to 40+) which skews false positives towards the unvaccinated.

[BDKJMU]

Incumbent Governors amd senators: each 15 conks, 12 donks.

Incumbent governors:
15 conk, 15 won
12 donk, 11 won (NV lost)
—————————————————————
27 Incumbents, 26 won

Incumbents Senators:
15 conk, 14 won, 1 runoff to another Republican (Alaska)
12 donk, 11 won, 1 in a runoff.
——————————————————————————
27 Incumbents, at least 25 won, 0 lost so far.

In total 54 Incumbent governors and senators:
51 won
1 lost
2 runoffs

[dbackjon]

Maybe in a normal cycle, but the one-two punch of the Supreme Court taking away women's rights and the Jan 6th investigation showing how treasonous Trump and many Republicans are make this far from normal.

We are seeing big swings to the Democrats among seniors - which is out of the ordinary.

And you also have things FAR worse for democrats than in those 1994 & 2010 1st term midterms that were red wave. The 2 biggest issues by far:
-the economy (we're in the middle a recession, which is going to get worse as the Fed has to continue to raise rates to combat inflation).
-inflation (we're at a 40+ year high).
Add on top of that.
-record high crime.
-out of control border crisis with record high illegal immigration
-a backlash against donks for their Covid policies of 2021, esp with schools, and against donks for pushing wokism in schools (see the VA & NJ 2021 elections)
-still supply chain issues (baby formula one example of many).
-Biden is WAY more unpopular than Clinton or Obama was.

And no one outside the left cares about 1/6.

Going to be a BIG RED WAVE.

[kalm]

And you also have things FAR worse for democrats than in those 1994 & 2010 1st term midterms that were red wave. The 2 biggest issues by far:
-the economy (we're in the middle a recession, which is going to get worse as the Fed has to continue to raise rates to combat inflation).
-inflation (we're at a 40+ year high).
Add on top of that.
-record high crime.
-out of control border crisis with record high illegal immigration
-a backlash against donks for their Covid policies of 2021, esp with schools, and against donks for pushing wokism in schools (see the VA & NJ 2021 elections)
-still supply chain issues (baby formula one example of many).
-Biden is WAY more unpopular than Clinton or Obama was.

And no one outside the left cares about 1/6.

Going to be a BIG RED WAVE.

cock·sure

/ˌkäkˈSHo͝or/

adjective

presumptuously or arrogantly confident.

[dbackjon]

Democrats retain the Senate.

Also, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Kent in WA 3rd. 538 had it 98% chance for Kent. Massive upset.

Historic midterms for Dems. '26 is going to be ugly. This was R's chance.

Kent was an extreme MAGAt who primaried Rep. Jaime Jaime Herrera Beutler who voted to impeach. It's a red district where a good sized chunk of republicans are more rational and moderate or libertarian. Gluesenkamp Perez is a gun-owning small business owner who campaigned as a moderate. It looks like the moderate republicans repudiated trump and voted D in this election. Republicans retake the seat if they nominate a moderate in 2024.

And kalmy, I would guess that there were plenty of Boomer & Gen X republicans who voted for Gluesenkamp Perez. If I lived on the other side of the river I would have voted for her.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

There was a lot of that this year. Democrats nominated a lot of moderates, GOP went full Trump-crazy. Herrera-Beutler would have cruised to re-election. But Trump and his minions had to have revenge.

[UNI88]

Kent was an extreme MAGAt who primaried Rep. Jaime Jaime Herrera Beutler who voted to impeach. It's a red district where a good sized chunk of republicans are more rational and moderate or libertarian. Gluesenkamp Perez is a gun-owning small business owner who campaigned as a moderate. It looks like the moderate republicans repudiated trump and voted D in this election. Republicans retake the seat if they nominate a moderate in 2024.

And kalmy, I would guess that there were plenty of Boomer & Gen X republicans who voted for Gluesenkamp Perez. If I lived on the other side of the river I would have voted for her.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

There was a lot of that this year. Democrats nominated a lot of moderates, GOP went full Trump-crazy. Herrera-Beutler would have cruised to re-election. But Trump and his minions had to have revenge.

Democrats did nominate a lot of moderates and it served them well. Hopefully they and progressive extremists learn from it to understand that most of America doesn't want a hard-left approach.

There were exceptions to Dems nominating moderate candidates too ...

Flip side of what happened in Washington with Herrera Beutler, Kent, and Gluesenkamp Perez. Progressive extremist McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Kurt Schrader (who organized against Biden's Build Back Better bill) in the democratic primary and moderates went for Chavez-DeRemer in the general election.

For all of the democratic celebrating the red tsunami being a ripple, the 2020 midterm elections were a repudiation of trump and extremists from both sides. It was not a vote of confidence for Biden or the progressive agenda. Hopefully, they get the hint and focus on the economy, safety, etc.

[dbackjon]

There was a lot of that this year. Democrats nominated a lot of moderates, GOP went full Trump-crazy. Herrera-Beutler would have cruised to re-election. But Trump and his minions had to have revenge.

Democrats did nominate a lot of moderates and it served them well. Hopefully they and progressive extremists learn from it to understand that most of America doesn't want a hard-left approach.

There were exceptions to Dems nominating moderate candidates too ...

Flip side of what happened in Washington with Herrera Beutler, Kent, and Gluesenkamp Perez. Progressive extremist McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Kurt Schrader (who organized against Biden's Build Back Better bill) in the democratic primary and moderates went for Chavez-DeRemer in the general election.

For all of the democratic celebrating the red tsunami being a ripple, the 2020 midterm elections were a repudiation of trump and extremists from both sides. It was not a vote of confidence for Biden or the progressive agenda. Hopefully, they get the hint and focus on the economy, safety, etc.

It was a repudiation of Trump AND a vote of Confidence in Biden. And a repudiation of radical right-wing extremism like Dobbs.

[kalm]

There was a lot of that this year. Democrats nominated a lot of moderates, GOP went full Trump-crazy. Herrera-Beutler would have cruised to re-election. But Trump and his minions had to have revenge.

Democrats did nominate a lot of moderates and it served them well. Hopefully they and progressive extremists learn from it to understand that most of America doesn't want a hard-left approach.

There were exceptions to Dems nominating moderate candidates too ...

Flip side of what happened in Washington with Herrera Beutler, Kent, and Gluesenkamp Perez. Progressive extremist McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Kurt Schrader (who organized against Biden's Build Back Better bill) in the democratic primary and moderates went for Chavez-DeRemer in the general election.

For all of the democratic celebrating the red tsunami being a ripple, the 2020 midterm elections were a repudiation of trump and extremists from both sides. It was not a vote of confidence for Biden or the progressive agenda. Hopefully, they get the hint and focus on the economy, safety, etc.

Depends on your definition of hard left approach. Defund the police is a no-brainer. What else?

[HI54UNI]

There was a lot of that this year. Democrats nominated a lot of moderates, GOP went full Trump-crazy. Herrera-Beutler would have cruised to re-election. But Trump and his minions had to have revenge.

Democrats did nominate a lot of moderates and it served them well. Hopefully they and progressive extremists learn from it to understand that most of America doesn't want a hard-left approach.

There were exceptions to Dems nominating moderate candidates too ...

Flip side of what happened in Washington with Herrera Beutler, Kent, and Gluesenkamp Perez. Progressive extremist McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Kurt Schrader (who organized against Biden's Build Back Better bill) in the democratic primary and moderates went for Chavez-DeRemer in the general election.

For all of the democratic celebrating the red tsunami being a ripple, the 2020 midterm elections were a repudiation of trump and extremists from both sides. It was not a vote of confidence for Biden or the progressive agenda. Hopefully, they get the hint and focus on the economy, safety, etc.

If Reps take control of the House it will save some of these moderate Dems. Otherwise they will be forced to vote for Biden's agenda and will have a much harder time in two years. See Cindy Axne in Iowa. Her opponent hung Biden around her neck and it was enough to beat her.

[UNI88]

Democrats did nominate a lot of moderates and it served them well. Hopefully they and progressive extremists learn from it to understand that most of America doesn't want a hard-left approach.

There were exceptions to Dems nominating moderate candidates too ...

It was a repudiation of Trump AND a vote of Confidence in Biden. And a repudiation of radical right-wing extremism like Dobbs.

If it was a vote of confidence in Biden then Fetterman, Warnock and Kelly would have won regardless of who they faced. IMO they would have lost to moderate Republican candidates. It was a repudiation of extremism by both sides, not just trump.

Liberal Oregon voted against McLeod-Skinner and almost elected a Republican governor because people are just as tired of failed left-wing extremist policies (doing nothing substantive for the homeless, defund the police, no bail, etc.) as they are of trump and election deniers.

[UNI88]

Democrats did nominate a lot of moderates and it served them well. Hopefully they and progressive extremists learn from it to understand that most of America doesn't want a hard-left approach.

There were exceptions to Dems nominating moderate candidates too ...

Depends on your definition of hard left approach. Defund the police is a no-brainer. What else?

No bail = no consequences. A person could be arrested in the morning, processed and released and committing crimes again in the afternoon.

The we have to respect the rights and feelings of the homeless approach while ignoring the rights and feelings of their housed neighbors (people and local businesses) and the impact on crime, physical and mental health.

I'm sure others can add more.

[kalm]

Depends on your definition of hard left approach. Defund the police is a no-brainer. What else?

No bail = no consequences. A person could be arrested in the morning, processed and released and committing crimes again in the afternoon.

The we have to respect the rights and feelings of the homeless approach while ignoring the rights and feelings of their housed neighbors (people and local businesses) and the impact on crime, physical and mental health.

I'm sure others can add more.

Those are good examples. Homelessness like drug use is almost exclusively a mental health issue with no quick solutions. It’s also a police and social work resource issue issue. Spokane is beset as well.

[JohnStOnge]

Continuing to shake my head at talking heads talking about how awful the polls are. They just don't understand the concept of probability estimation. I guess they never will. What has happened is well within the range of reasonable possibility as indicated by the polls.

[BDKJMU]

This afternoon:

[kalm]

[houndawg]

...that's beautiful, man...

[SeattleGriz]

Gotta love the censorship that's already started on the difference between "ballots" and "votes"!

Apparently the media doesn't want people to realize the Dems have been outworking the Reps on collecting ballots.

[BDKJMU]

Although not all outlets reporting it yet. Looks lile conks will be anwhere from 221 to 224, and donks from 211 to 214
https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/house/

[BDKJMU]

[BDKJMU]

To illustate how incompetent and broken California‘s election system is, the polls closed over 1 week ago, and CA is still only 73% reported, the lowest percentage of any state. 7 of 10 uncalled House races in CA. Unreal.

[dbackjon]

To illustate how incompetent and broken California‘s election system is, the polls closed over 1 week ago, and CA is still only 73% reported, the lowest percentage of any state. 7 of 10 uncalled House races in CA. Unreal.

You don't want every vote counted and verified?

Stop the Count?

[dbackjon]

California Law allows for Mail-in ballots, if post-marked by election day, and received by the following Tuesday to be counted.

California has gone to mail-in ballots, which increase participation, but take longer to count.

Counting is done at the County level. For example, Conservative Kern County, failed to allocate money for new tabulating machines, relying on ONE Machine.


No election ANYWHERE in the country is official, yet.