The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

[BDKJMU]

Lol.

There's only a difference of 11 to 23 point difference in net approval between Rasmussen and the other polls from February.

Keep referencing your favorite outlier if it makes you feel better.

And how many of those other polls don’t use likely voters? Why you would include people in a poll who don’t/rarely ever vote?
How many of those other polls over sample donks/under sample conks?

[Ibanez]

Lol.

There's only a difference of 11 to 23 point difference in net approval between Rasmussen and the other polls from February.

Keep referencing your favorite outlier if it makes you feel better.

And how many of those other polls don’t use likely voters? Why you would include people in a poll who don’t/rarely ever vote?
How many of those other polls over sample donks/under sample conks?

What about Rasmussen? Do they over-sample conservatives/Republicans?


Not that you would read it, but 529 does a good job at ranking all the polls, their accuracy and bias.

Spoiler - Rasmussen leans Right

[Ibanez]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/08/politics ... index.html

The average Rasmussen poll had Democrats ahead by 1.7 points on the generic ballot. That's an underestimation of their eventual position of nearly 7 points. This made Rasmussen's average poll more inaccurate than any other pollster.

I know..fake news, right?

[Skjellyfetti]

Lol.

There's only a difference of 11 to 23 point difference in net approval between Rasmussen and the other polls from February.

Keep referencing your favorite outlier if it makes you feel better.

And how many of those other polls don’t use likely voters? Why you would include people in a poll who don’t/rarely ever vote?
How many of those other polls over sample donks/under sample conks?

We go over this all the time, so I don't know why I'm bothering again.

Most polls aren't using likely voters now. Most will switch to using likely voter models closer to the election (a few months before).

Defining a "likely voter" before the candidates are confirmed is guesswork.

Not to mention the fact that this isn't even an election poll.

[Ibanez]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Rasmussen get's a C+

[Grizalltheway]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Rasmussen get's a C+

I give BDK a D-.

[BDKJMU]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Rasmussen get's a C+

538:
'Calm down,' Donald Trump won't win the GOP nomination
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nate-sil ... 06189.html

And wasn't 538 the ones who called the election for Clinton on election eve with something like a 90% chance of winning?

538

[Ibanez]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Rasmussen get's a C+

538:
'Calm down,' Donald Trump won't win the GOP nomination
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nate-sil ... 06189.html

And wasn't 538 the ones who called the election for Clinton on election eve with something like a 90% chance of winning?

538

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5952.html

Rasmussen had Clinton winning. In fact, you'll recall that it was the LA Times that predicted Trump. They were the only group to predict Trump, everyone else was sure Clinton was the winner. Don't overlook that nugget of truth.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5491.html

And Rasmussen got the 2018 midterms wrong.

[SDHornet]

People still arguing about polls?

[JohnStOnge]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Rasmussen get's a C+

And the most recent test we have of a Rasmussen poll vs. what actually happened is the 2018 generic House ballot. If you look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6185.html it was the only poll that had a point estimate with Republicans getting more of the vote. It was off by 9.4 percentage points.

Now, it did get really close on the 2016 Presidential election. It had Clinton by 2 and she won by 2.1. But that's why I started a thread about a blind squirrel finding a nut. When you look at it over time the Rasmussen poll has had an awful record. Like for instance it also had Mitt Romney beating Obama in the popular vote. It's not one of the better polls.

[JohnStOnge]

Strangely, some of you guys have not been reading my posts! I've posted historical records of how Rasumussen has done before. It has not done well. Yes, it was very close on the popular vote for the 2016 Presidential election. But that was the exception. That's what the "blind squirrel finding a nut" post was about. When you look at its overall record it is AWFUL. It's not a good poll.

[AZGrizFan]

Strangely, some of you guys have not been reading my posts!

[Ivytalk]

Strangely, some of you guys have not been reading my posts!

X 6.93

[Baldy]

X 6.93

Is it possible for anyone to be that totally self unaware?

[css75]

Trump hits 52% approval in Rasmussen Daily Tracking, highest approval rate of his presidency...

But what about the shutdown hurting his poll numbers narrative?

During the shutdown his poll numbers were down and it hurt. That was the narrative.

But it was conducted after a STOU, which usually gives the POTUS a bump in numbers.

The margin of error is +/- 2.5% -keep that in mind.

Also it's 1 of many polls. The only reason you're excited about this one is that it supports your perspective.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6179.html


Rasmussen is the only one that's positive for him. What's that say about the poll?

As we have learned from elections polls are not very accurate. People will lie to the pollsters especially conservatives, so they don’t have to hear lib vitriol.


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[Pwns]

The only thing the new House will do is unite the GOP and force them to circle the wagon around Trump, and elevate a very unpopular Speaker of the House that will create blame diffusion for anything bad that happens.

Trump's approval ratings sure seem to be creeping upward of late.

[Skjellyfetti]

"creeping" being the operative word.

he's been hovering in the low 40s for about a year with minimal movement.

a little early to start patting yourself on the back.

[kalm]

The only thing the new House will do is unite the GOP and force them to circle the wagon around Trump, and elevate a very unpopular Speaker of the House that will create blame diffusion for anything bad that happens.

Trump's approval ratings sure seem to be creeping upward of late.

Do you like his performance, Pwns?

[SDHornet]

Strangely, some of you guys have not been reading my posts!

POTY!!!!

[AZGrizFan]

Trump's approval ratings sure seem to be creeping upward of late.

Do you like his performance, Pwns?

Define "his performance". I don't like HIM, I don't like his TWEETS, and I don't like the stupid shit that comes out of his mouth every time he opens it.

I DO like about 80% of the things he's done as president that relate to the actual country, however.

[CAA Flagship]

Do you like his performance, Pwns?

Define "his performance". I don't like HIM, I don't like his TWEETS, and I don't like the stupid shit that comes out of his mouth every time he opens it.

I DO like about 80% of the things he's done as president that relate to the actual country, however.

[css75]

Define "his performance". I don't like HIM, I don't like his TWEETS, and I don't like the stupid **** that comes out of his mouth every time he opens it.

I DO like about 80% of the things he's done as president that relate to the actual country, however.

He talked a great game, no stupid tweets, but looking t his accomplishments, he sucked..


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[89Hen]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/11/opinions ... index.html

This week, our leaders in Washington will once again debate government funding and border security. Sadly, Americans can expect that this week's debate will again be laced with exaggerated rhetoric concocted to gratify partisans on both sides of the aisle. As we go into another week of Washington infighting and finger-pointing, I would like to offer a dose of reality for both sides.

President Trump: Let's be honest, neither Mexico nor "Chuck and Nancy" are going to pay for the wall from sea to shining sea that you promised during your campaign.

Leader Schumer, Speaker Pelosi: Our nation cannot have open borders. Given your past support for border security funding that included physical barriers under previous administrations, your current "outrage" seems disingenuous at best.

That's my Gov!

[Ibanez]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/11/opinions ... index.html

This week, our leaders in Washington will once again debate government funding and border security. Sadly, Americans can expect that this week's debate will again be laced with exaggerated rhetoric concocted to gratify partisans on both sides of the aisle. As we go into another week of Washington infighting and finger-pointing, I would like to offer a dose of reality for both sides.

President Trump: Let's be honest, neither Mexico nor "Chuck and Nancy" are going to pay for the wall from sea to shining sea that you promised during your campaign.

Leader Schumer, Speaker Pelosi: Our nation cannot have open borders. Given your past support for border security funding that included physical barriers under previous administrations, your current "outrage" seems disingenuous at best.

That's my Gov!

Good article.

[GannonFan]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/11/opinions ... index.html

This week, our leaders in Washington will once again debate government funding and border security. Sadly, Americans can expect that this week's debate will again be laced with exaggerated rhetoric concocted to gratify partisans on both sides of the aisle. As we go into another week of Washington infighting and finger-pointing, I would like to offer a dose of reality for both sides.

President Trump: Let's be honest, neither Mexico nor "Chuck and Nancy" are going to pay for the wall from sea to shining sea that you promised during your campaign.

Leader Schumer, Speaker Pelosi: Our nation cannot have open borders. Given your past support for border security funding that included physical barriers under previous administrations, your current "outrage" seems disingenuous at best.

That's my Gov!

Could certainly use more of that type of politician.